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2022 Draft Signing Period
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Post by borisman on Jul 24, 2022 10:45:05 GMT -5
So now we'll forever have Cutter Coffey, who'll be most scrutinized pick since Trey Ball (Meadows) or CJ Chatham (ahem Bryan Reynolds or Pete Alonso), in his place. BTW, I didn't really care about Fabian not signing nor did I root against him getting drafted higher to make up for the $2m he rejected from the Sox. I'm still not ok with the Coffey pick though but I am certainly rooting for him for sure. And I hope he's on his way to be similarly good to the Blaze Jordan pick. There is no logical way to compare Fabian to Coffey, considering Fabian was commanding quite a bit more than slot and Coffey will likely get under slot. not really what I meant. Only that I preferred lots of other players in that spot. Fabian roll over pick is just a comp for what we got for not signing him.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 24, 2022 12:04:16 GMT -5
Some draft thoughts: Extreme demographic distribution: For the second time in the past three drafts, albeit including the truncated 2020 draft, the Red Sox did not draft a HS pitcher, and only selected one (Elmer Cruz-Rodriguez) in 2021. As vermontsox pointed out, that’s just one HS pitcher selected in our past 45 picks. That we shied away from HS pitchers wasn’t a huge surprise necessarily, but that we selected only one college bat was a huge surprise to me. As others mentioned, plenty of mock drafts had us selecting two college bats with our first two picks alone. How much of a deviation is this from past years? Excluding 2020 and focusing on the first 20 rounds of previous drafts for comparison’s sake, we selected 7 college bats in 2021, 6 in 2019, and 8 in 2018. I believe this is the first draft (again excluding 2020) in the history of the SP archives that no college junior bat was selected in a draft. Our lone college bat selection was Chase Meidroth, a sophomore. Without college bats and HS arms, our draft focused on HS bats and college arms, perhaps suggesting a focus on drafting high pedigree upside among position players and findings diamonds in the rough to develop among arms. Age is just a number? I’ll admit the Coffey and Anthony surprised me a bit. In whatever little research I did prior to the draft, I hadn’t heard much about Coffey, and Anthony I knew as having some of the best power in the prep class but coupled with swing-and-miss concerns. I have since wondered if age factored significantly in the Red Sox decision making and model building as these two were on the younger end of the HS class just barely reaching 18 years of age prior to the draft. Brooks Brannen is also quite young and in fact, all three of Coffey, Anthony and Brannen were born just a few weeks apart between May 4 and May 21 of 2004. This made them roughly 18 years and 2 months old at the time of draft day and makes them younger than even the majority of HS selections throughout the draft. Do the Sox have a pitcher type? To be honest, if there’s a ‘type’ then it’s a pitcher who misses bats effectively. That said, in today’s game with FBs being prioritized toward the top of the zone or above, we’re seeing a number of FB traits that are advantageous for missing bats, and this showed up several times throughout our draft. In particular, a number of pitchers demonstrate good carry, often times due to a low release point, and also good vertical break. One or both of these characteristics would seemingly apply to at least Dalton Rogers, Noah Dean, Alex Hoppe, Jonathan Brand, Marques Johnson, and Hayden Mullins. You could also make the case that the Red Sox are drawn to low mileage arms having selected a number of pitchers used primarily as relievers in college but this might just be an artifact of identifying undervalued arms. I’m sure the Red Sox would love to have found guys that check the three most important pitcher boxes (gets swings and misses, generates poor contact, throws strikes), but if you had to de-prioritize one, clearly they’re comfortable with some guys who may have control issues. Of the 13 pitchers selected, 8 had BB rates of 4.0 BB/9 or higher this past year. Spend on bats, dig for arms: This theme is a bit similar to the demographic theme from above, but there's an important distinction to make. That is, we’re still allocating $ predominantly to bats, and spending far less on arms…this is a pattern that’s true both in the draft and internationally. In the draft alone, we’ve selected 10 bats and 0 arms before Round 3 since 2018. If someone mocks a pitcher to us in Round 1 of the 2023 draft, they should lose all credibility at this point. The spending patterns are similar, if our projections are even close, we’ll have given out 12 or 13 bonuses of $750K or more to bats and none of this magnitude to arms since 2018. Mellow Day 3: As things are shaping up, it looks like the team’s bonus pool will be spent on all Day 1 and 2 picks. I can’t imagine there’s any extra $ floating around to go above and beyond the $125K threshold on players selected in Round 11 or beyond. This is somewhat similar to last year when the bulk of any extra $ went to Nathan Hickey in Round 5 and we spent a mere $125K extra (Niko Kavadas) beyond the Day 3 limits. In previous years, we’ve reserved substantially more $ for Day 3 picks including $770K in 2019 and $588K in 2018.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 24, 2022 12:11:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox bet on Fabian making the rational move, which he did not.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 24, 2022 12:44:49 GMT -5
Age is just a number? I’ll admit the Coffey and Anthony surprised me a bit. In whatever little research I did prior to the draft, I hadn’t heard much about Coffey, and Anthony I knew as having some of the best power in the prep class but coupled with swing-and-miss concerns. I have since wondered if age factored significantly in the Red Sox decision making and model building as these two were on the younger end of the HS class just barely reaching 18 years of age prior to the draft. Brooks Brannen is also quite young and in fact, all three of Coffey, Anthony and Brannen were born just a few weeks apart between May 4 and May 21 of 2004. This made them roughly 18 years and 2 months old at the time of draft day and makes them younger than even the majority of HS selections throughout the draft.
I didn't realize these guys were young, thanks for pointing that out.
A lot of people resist the idea that age matters a lot at this level, I think because it often comes up with someone denigrating a prospect that someone else is excited about. On the other hand, for every prospect that gets taken down a notch, someone else gets elevated.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 24, 2022 12:47:56 GMT -5
So now we'll forever have Cutter Coffey, who'll be most scrutinized pick since Trey Ball (Meadows) or CJ Chatham (ahem Bryan Reynolds or Pete Alonso), in his place. BTW, I didn't really care about Fabian not signing nor did I root against him getting drafted higher to make up for the $2m he rejected from the Sox. I'm still not ok with the Coffey pick though but I am certainly rooting for him for sure. And I hope he's on his way to be similarly good to the Blaze Jordan pick. This makes no sense whatsoever. Every player we have ever drafted was picked instead of someone else.
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Post by borisman on Jul 24, 2022 12:52:17 GMT -5
So now we'll forever have Cutter Coffey, who'll be most scrutinized pick since Trey Ball (Meadows) or CJ Chatham (ahem Bryan Reynolds or Pete Alonso), in his place. BTW, I didn't really care about Fabian not signing nor did I root against him getting drafted higher to make up for the $2m he rejected from the Sox. I'm still not ok with the Coffey pick though but I am certainly rooting for him for sure. And I hope he's on his way to be similarly good to the Blaze Jordan pick. This makes no sense whatsoever. Every player we have ever drafted was picked instead of someone else. I don’t know what doesn’t make sense. He was unexpected pick with higher ceiling guys available. Ahem Prielipp and others. Makes sense to me if he flops and other excel.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 13:01:46 GMT -5
This makes no sense whatsoever. Every player we have ever drafted was picked instead of someone else. I don’t know what doesn’t make sense. He was unexpected pick with higher ceiling guys available. Ahem Prielipp and others. Makes sense to me if he flops and other excel. But he was underslot, for the purpose of signing better signability prospects in other rounds. You can say the same thing about every single underslot pick. You have to look at drafts as a whole rather than individual picks most of the time.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2022 13:33:50 GMT -5
Looks like Jaret Godman is in Fort Myers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2022 14:20:39 GMT -5
Mellow Day 3: As things are shaping up, it looks like the team’s bonus pool will be spent on all Day 1 and 2 picks. I can’t imagine there’s any extra $ floating around to go above and beyond the $125K threshold on players selected in Round 11 or beyond. This is somewhat similar to last year when the bulk of any extra $ went to Nathan Hickey in Round 5 and we spent a mere $125K extra (Niko Kavadas) beyond the Day 3 limits. In previous years, we’ve reserved substantially more $ for Day 3 picks including $770K in 2019 and $588K in 2018. And one could posit that if they signed Fabian, Kavadas likely doesn't get over-"slot".
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 24, 2022 14:32:06 GMT -5
Mellow Day 3: As things are shaping up, it looks like the team’s bonus pool will be spent on all Day 1 and 2 picks. I can’t imagine there’s any extra $ floating around to go above and beyond the $125K threshold on players selected in Round 11 or beyond. This is somewhat similar to last year when the bulk of any extra $ went to Nathan Hickey in Round 5 and we spent a mere $125K extra (Niko Kavadas) beyond the Day 3 limits. In previous years, we’ve reserved substantially more $ for Day 3 picks including $770K in 2019 and $588K in 2018. And one could posit that if they signed Fabian, Kavadas likely doesn't get over-"slot". He was a College Senior no?
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Post by borisman on Jul 24, 2022 14:35:22 GMT -5
This makes no sense whatsoever. Every player we have ever drafted was picked instead of someone else. I don’t know what doesn’t make sense. He was unexpected pick with higher ceiling guys available. Ahem Prielipp and others. Makes sense to me if he flops and other excel. I don’t need an education. I know how drafts work re: slot/under slot/underslot. I will criticize the pick unless both Coffey Anthony kill it. Edit: I also know some $ will go to the HS catcher thanks
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,209
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Post by cdj on Jul 24, 2022 14:50:31 GMT -5
And one could posit that if they signed Fabian, Kavadas likely doesn't get over-"slot". He was a College Senior no? I do believe he had an extra year of eligibility though
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 24, 2022 14:55:23 GMT -5
I don’t know what doesn’t make sense. He was unexpected pick with higher ceiling guys available. Ahem Prielipp and others. Makes sense to me if he flops and other excel. I don’t need an education. I know how drafts work re: slot/under slot/underslot. I will criticize the pick unless both Coffey Anthony kill it. Edit: I also know some $ will go to the HS catcher thanks It's fine to criticize any pick but to say it will be the "most scrutinized pick" in the last decade is what makes no sense. I'm not going to go back and forth on you with this and maybe you just expressed your opinion in an extreme way, but he's just not going to be the most scrutinized pick.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2022 15:24:26 GMT -5
He was a College Senior no? I do believe he had an extra year of eligibility though Meh, he was already 22. He had zero leverage really. You're telling me he goes back and comes out at 23 with literally no leverage? He'd be looking at a $5k bonus. It's no coincidence that Hickey and Kavadas signed at the deadline - the Red Sox needed to be certain what Fabian was doing before giving them both the bonuses they got. Complete speculation, but if Fabian comes back last minute and is like fine, I'll take 2.1, I'm sure the Red Sox would've just given Kavadas $125k and asked Hickey if he'd settle for $900k.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 24, 2022 15:29:25 GMT -5
I do believe he had an extra year of eligibility though Meh, he was already 22. He had zero leverage really. You're telling me he goes back and comes out at 23 with literally no leverage? He'd be looking at a $5k bonus. It's no coincidence that Hickey and Kavadas signed at the deadline - the Red Sox needed to be certain what Fabian was doing before giving them both the bonuses they got. Complete speculation, but if Fabian comes back last minute and is like fine, I'll take 2.1, I'm sure the Red Sox would've just given Kavadas $125k and asked Hickey if he'd settle for $900k. Yeah I never really got why he was projected not to sign by Mike. Seems like bad business by the Sox to take a guy with such little leverage and not have an intent to sign him. I mean I guess he could go back to an Oklahoma bullpen that is losing guys and have a bigger role and show some stuff but it wouldn’t really do much for him draft leverage wise.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 24, 2022 16:05:01 GMT -5
There is a long history of the club not signing college draftees. 23 unsigned college picks between 2012 and 2021 - so more than 2 per year on average. That includes some seniors and several late round picks w/ one year of eligibility left. That was the reasoning behind the projection. I actually don't think every draftee gets an offer at all, so I don't agree with the premise that these players are deciding between $100k this year or $5k next year. We've heard scouting directors say in the past that they are only looking to sign 13-16 draftees. Why do they do bother picking college guys late and sometimes not signing them? I'm not sure, all I'm saying is that there is history behind it. Some might be backup options to potentially fill out rosters in a pinch, some might be nods to scouts or college coaches, some might be nepotism picks or whatever.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 24, 2022 16:58:04 GMT -5
There is a long history of the club not signing college draftees. 23 unsigned college picks between 2012 and 2021 - so more than 2 per year on average. That includes some seniors and several late round picks w/ one year of eligibility left. That was the reasoning behind the projection. I actually don't think every draftee gets an offer at all, so I don't agree with the premise that these players are deciding between $100k this year or $5k next year. We've heard scouting directors say in the past that they are only looking to sign 13-16 draftees. Why do they do bother picking college guys late and sometimes not signing them? I'm not sure, all I'm saying is that there is history behind it. Some might be backup options to potentially fill out rosters in a pinch, some might be nods to scouts or college coaches, some might be nepotism picks or whatever. Over that span (since 2012) only three seniors the Red Sox had drafted did not sign, and two of those were football players so that three comes with a huge asterisk. Yes there were a relatively small handful of college juniors those chose to not sign but the difference between a college junior and a college senior with an extra year of eligibility is pretty massive because the latter is more likely to have finished school. If it had happened then sure, whatever, but it's certainly not something I would have projected, especially given that the draft is literally half as long as it was 10 years ago. A 40 round draft sure maybe that projection makes a bit more sense to me.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2022 18:30:35 GMT -5
Looks like the Bryant Zayas signing is official per the Red Sox transactions. He was also added to the FCL roster.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2022 18:40:18 GMT -5
According to BA's draft database, Isaac Coffey also signed for $7,500. That's $142,500 in savings.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 24, 2022 19:09:50 GMT -5
Updated predictions Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000 2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (reported) 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (reported) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (reported) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (reported) 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (reported) After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)None After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 19. Jaret Godman 20. Connor Butler Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,448,550 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730 Projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2022 19:12:24 GMT -5
According to BA's draft database, Isaac Coffey also signed for $7,500. That's $142,500 in savings. Reminder to folks re: why these are all $2500 less than round numbers, teams can include in bonuses a $2500 "reporting bonus" that doesn't count toward the cap. In other words, it's an accounting trick. Isaac Coffey is getting $10k, but $2500 won't count againat the cap. At most it'll save them like $27,500, which isn't much, but hey, that's more than the difference between their cap and what they spent last year (or at least what counted).
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,209
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Post by cdj on Jul 24, 2022 19:34:25 GMT -5
I do believe he had an extra year of eligibility though Meh, he was already 22. He had zero leverage really. You're telling me he goes back and comes out at 23 with literally no leverage? He'd be looking at a $5k bonus. It's no coincidence that Hickey and Kavadas signed at the deadline - the Red Sox needed to be certain what Fabian was doing before giving them both the bonuses they got. Complete speculation, but if Fabian comes back last minute and is like fine, I'll take 2.1, I'm sure the Red Sox would've just given Kavadas $125k and asked Hickey if he'd settle for $900k. For sure, not saying it would have been the smart thing for him to do. Just saying he could have gone back to Notre Dame if his heart desired (and my god the numbers he would have posted)
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 24, 2022 19:38:27 GMT -5
According to BA's draft database, Isaac Coffey also signed for $7,500. That's $142,500 in savings. Reminder to folks re: why these are all $2500 less than round numbers, teams can include in bonuses a $2500 "reporting bonus" that doesn't count toward the cap. In other words, it's an accounting trick. Isaac Coffey is getting $10k, but $2500 won't count againat the cap. At most it'll save them like $27,500, which isn't much, but hey, that's more than the difference between their cap and what they spent last year (or at least what counted). Interesting didn’t know this, that’s why I see a few teams signing some guys exactly $2,500.00 under slot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2022 20:31:22 GMT -5
Reminder to folks re: why these are all $2500 less than round numbers, teams can include in bonuses a $2500 "reporting bonus" that doesn't count toward the cap. In other words, it's an accounting trick. Isaac Coffey is getting $10k, but $2500 won't count againat the cap. At most it'll save them like $27,500, which isn't much, but hey, that's more than the difference between their cap and what they spent last year (or at least what counted). Interesting didn’t know this, that’s why I see a few teams signing some guys exactly $2,500.00 under slot. Red Sox did this last year with most of their guys.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 25, 2022 0:32:34 GMT -5
According to BA's draft database, Isaac Coffey also signed for $7,500. That's $142,500 in savings. Mo money, mo money, mo money ...
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