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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 9, 2022 10:03:32 GMT -5
The Sox are nuts if they go with Sale and Paxton as two of their five starters, especially if after Pivetta they go with kids. Those guys are made of glass AND have not pitched in so long it is impossible to know what you are getting. It is begging for mid-season pain. Pretty much this, if those two are plugged into the rotation to start the year I'd just about combine them and count them as 1 starter in a way and maybe they can get 25-30 starts from the two combined. I'm fine with Pivetta at the 5 starter. I would like Whitlock in the rotation as well as I think he was doing well and can handle it. That still leaves them 2-3 starters short if you ask me, at least one pencil into the rotation type and someone who can start in the bullpen and go into the rotation if need be. Maybe that is too many starters but as you said if it's Sale,Paxton, Pivetta and then the kids with no reinforcements coming from FA or trade they're asking for trouble. I like what Crawford has done and they've got depth in the minors but it's still unproven. They'd be okay if they need to go to whoever is hottest/next in line but as we've seen this year if it's 3-4 guys from the minors having to come up and log starts it's not sustainable. I just hope Paxton is able to come back and pitch a few games this year so they are able to figure out if he's got a chance of being worth picking up the option or if it's best to cut him loose and use the money elsewhere. I think
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Post by juanpena on Aug 25, 2022 16:56:42 GMT -5
Now that Paxton will definitely not pitch, they can't pick up his option, right?
The 2023 rotation is looking ugly. Pivetta -- and all his inconsistency -- seems like the only sure thing. I like Bello's promise, and hope he shows in the next five weeks he's ready for prime time. Is Whitlock a starter? I think he can be, but can he handle the workload. And who knows about Sale?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 25, 2022 17:02:38 GMT -5
Now that Paxton will definitely not pitch, they can't pick up his option, right? The 2023 rotation is looking ugly. Pivetta -- and all his inconsistency -- seems like the only sure thing. I like Bello's promise, and hope he shows in the next five weeks he's ready for prime time. Is Whitlock a starter? I think he can be, but can he handle the workload. And who knows about Sale? Good news, after the world series, they have this thing called the off-season, and you can sign players and make trades
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Post by juanpena on Aug 25, 2022 17:10:42 GMT -5
Now that Paxton will definitely not pitch, they can't pick up his option, right? The 2023 rotation is looking ugly. Pivetta -- and all his inconsistency -- seems like the only sure thing. I like Bello's promise, and hope he shows in the next five weeks he's ready for prime time. Is Whitlock a starter? I think he can be, but can he handle the workload. And who knows about Sale? Good news, after the world series, they have this thing called the off-season, and you can sign players and make trades The snark was unneccesary. I never said or implied that they wouldn't do anything for the offseason. For the past nine months this site has had Paxton as one of the 2023 starters. A lot of people have posted optimistically here about his potential for next season. I asked a question if they could pick up his option with his latest injury and framed it with the number of question marks for next year. I know Bloom will make some transactions. His decision on Paxton got tougher, and what he decides will have domino effect on the moves he makes in the offseason.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 25, 2022 17:14:25 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option.
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Post by juanpena on Aug 25, 2022 17:17:36 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option. I think literally the only way he does is if he thinks he's finished. Maybe Bloom offers him that base for one year with a lot of incentives and Paxton tries to see if he can top it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 25, 2022 17:20:54 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option. I'm no doctor but I've also not seen any prognosis for recovery. Have you seen any reports on how long his torn lat would keep him out for? Obviously torn anything sounds bad but sometimes it's not as bad as one would think.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 25, 2022 17:28:24 GMT -5
Ohtani Wacha Pivetta Bello Whitlock
Marcelo, Yorke, Wink, Ward and Crawford for Shohei
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Post by manfred on Aug 25, 2022 17:29:37 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option. I think literally the only way he does is if he thinks he's finished. Maybe Bloom offers him that base for one year with a lot of incentives and Paxton tries to see if he can top it. He’ll be 34 and have pitched 6 games since 2019. I think he’s reached a point when if he declined the millions from the Sox he could be an invitee to spring training. I bet he takes it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 25, 2022 17:45:29 GMT -5
Ohtani Wacha Pivetta Bello Whitlock Marcelo, Yorke, Wink, Ward and Crawford for Shohei That doesn't even come close to getting ohtani. I know Soto has an extra year of control but that's probably the package it'd take.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 25, 2022 18:15:28 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option. Paxton on a new arm at $4mil would kinda be the dream, no?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2022 3:04:58 GMT -5
Can't imagine Paxton won't exercise his player option. The Red Sox were willing to invest $10M on him with the assumption of a normal rehab from TJ. He was a little behind schedule, but once he started to throw he was by all reports looking good. Then he tears the lat, and I don't think any of us know what that means long-term. Is a grade 2 lat tear a worse thing to be coming off of than a TJ repair? Is it an injury that has an inherent risk of repetition? I don't know any of that (if anyone does, chime in!).
I don't think that the two successive injuries and the resulting extra missed PT has a big effect. The severity of this injury is going to be most of the concern, since the TJ seems to have worked solidly. Coming off TJ is an extra factor teams will consider.
To not be worth a flyer of more than $4m by some team, either this injury has to be really severe, or for medical reasons that I'm unaware of, I'm wrong about the two injuries not being much worse than just the lat tear.
Not being worth a $4m flyer is the the criterion for his taking the player option. I'm dubious that his value, which FG had $27M + for the four years before he got hurt, is going to drop that low. My operating assumption in my following post is that he's a FA this winter. Assuming the lat tear is expected to heal 100% by next spring, I think he gets a $6M to $8M offer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2022 4:10:41 GMT -5
Ohtani Wacha Pivetta Bello Whitlock Marcelo, Yorke, Wink, Ward and Crawford for Shohei That doesn't even come close to getting ohtani. I know Soto has an extra year of control but that's probably the package it'd take. Soto had 1 1/3 years more of control left and is impacting three pennant races before he would have been available as a free agent, instead of Ohatni's one. That's a huge difference.
Nobody trades for Ohtani without signing him to a huge extension. It makes sense to trade excess talent to get an extra year of control and a somewhat lower cost. Both the Dogers and Yankees have more money to spend than the Sox and a deeper farm system. It's hard to see the Sox outbidding everyone on talent, just to begin with.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2022 6:25:59 GMT -5
So, Eovaldi is gone and will not get a QO after this latest IL trip. What do we have?
Sale (limited innings) Pivertta Wacha * Whitlock (limited innings) Crawford (ditto?)
Bello (ditto)
Winkoswki
Seabold
Walter, Mata, Murphy, Ward
* I'll be stunned of they don't re-sign Wacha, and quite possibly it happens in the exclusive negotiating period. See my last post in his thread for the rationale and the argument that he's really pitched as well as his results.
Given Sale and Whitlock, I think you want two guys on the roster who are spot starters and long relievers. Ideally, they are long relievers who can pitch in high leverage.
If you count down to 7 on that list, you get Winkowski, and he'd be a great guy to have in AAA when 7 guys ahead of him were all healthy (which is rare), and as a spot starter and long man (but not working in high leverage) when someone was on the IL. But you'd be in much better shape if you added someone who projects to be a top or strong mid-rotation starter rather than in the back end. Winkowski in the rotation whenever 2 of the 6 guys ahead of him is pennant contender's depth. Having him in the rotation whenever 3 guys are hurt at once is closer to championship depth.
Five options:
1) Sign one of the big FA's. I'm resisting the urge to rank the guys after deGrom and Verlander.
2) Sign or trade for an even better version of Wacha.
Wacha was an average 5th starter the previous two years; with us, his xwOBA has improved to below-average 4th starter. And he has the 11th best wOBA in MLB!
As we've seen with Winkowski and Crawford, in a small sample you can get a disproportionate percentage of outings where the pitcher has his best command. It takes much longer to assess how often that happens in the long run. Wacha's results over 83 innings are almost certainly not sustainable, but it's impressive enough to project him as at least a good #3 starter in the long run -- if I'm right about what they've done with him.
What if you took a guy who was already, say, a borderline 2/3 stater due to great command and good but nothing-special stuff, and called his pitches as smartly as they seem to be doing with Wacha? You might get a legit ace or borderline ace, in terms of results. This seems the the best option to me ... if it actually exists!
3) Sign or trade for another Wacha; pay a back-of-rotation cost to get strong mid-rotation results.
4) A different sort of upside play, a la Pivetta. The problem here is that these involve actually changing the way a guy pitches, and that can take time.
5) Paxrton? They liked him and if he projects to be healthy, another contract like his current one wouldn't be a shock.
Compared to the situation with the position players, this is easy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 26, 2022 6:32:38 GMT -5
1) There's a trade proposal subforum for wild trade speculation. Let's keep that there.
2) Great points on Paxton. Fair to think he doesn't exercise the option. I'm thinking it's murky. I was thinking of the whole six starts in 3 years thing but it's not like his situation has changed dramatically.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 26, 2022 7:57:16 GMT -5
So, Eovaldi is gone and will not get a QO after this latest IL trip. What do we have?
Sale (limited innings) Pivertta Wacha * Whitlock (limited innings) Crawford (ditto?)
Bello (ditto)
Winkoswki
Seabold
Walter, Mata, Murphy, Ward
* I'll be stunned of they don't re-sign Wacha, and quite possibly it happens in the exclusive negotiating period. See my last post in his thread for the rationale and the argument that he's really pitched as well as his results.
Given Sale and Whitlock, I think you want two guys on the roster who are spot starters and long relievers. Ideally, they are long relievers who can pitch in high leverage.
If you count down to 7 on that list, you get Winkowski, and he'd be a great guy to have in AAA when 7 guys ahead of him were all healthy (which is rare), and as a spot starter and long man (but not working in high leverage) when someone was on the IL. But you'd be in much better shape if you added someone who projects to be a top or strong mid-rotation starter rather than in the back end. Winkowski in the rotation whenever 2 of the 6 guys ahead of him is pennant contender's depth. Having him in the rotation whenever 3 guys are hurt at once is closer to championship depth.
Five options:
1) Sign one of the big FA's. I'm resisting the urge to rank the guys after deGrom and Verlander.
2) Sign or trade for an even better version of Wacha.
Wacha was an average 5th starter the previous two years; with us, his xwOBA has improved to below-average 4th starter. And he has the 11th best wOBA in MLB!
As we've seen with Winkowski and Crawford, in a small sample you can get a disproportionate percentage of outings where the pitcher has his best command. It takes much longer to assess how often that happens in the long run. Wacha's results over 83 innings are almost certainly not sustainable, but it's impressive enough to project him as at least a good #3 starter in the long run -- if I'm right about what they've done with him.
What if you took a guy who was already, say, a borderline 2/3 stater due to great command and good but nothing-special stuff, and called his pitches as smartly as they seem to be doing with Wacha? You might get a legit ace or borderline ace, in terms of results. This seems the the best option to me ... if it actually exists!
3) Sign or trade for another Wacha; pay a back-of-rotation cost to get strong mid-rotation results.
4) A different sort of upside play, a la Pivetta. The problem here is that these involve actually changing the way a guy pitches, and that can take time.
5) Paxrton? They liked him and if he projects to be healthy, another contract like his current one wouldn't be a shock.
Compared to the situation with the position players, this is easy.
I'm curious why you're confident Eovaldi won't get a QO. I don't think it's a lock anymore, but I think it's at least a toss up. Here's my thinking: 1) Would someone offer Eovaldi a multi-year deal this offseason, even at lower than QO AAV? I think yes - I could totally see a 3/39 or something in that ballpark. Next year is his age 33 season and he has had injury issues, but he's found a way to start a reasonable amount of games most seasons and he was 4th in the Cy Young voting last season. Would this sort of deal be off the table if a QO were attached, or off the table *enough* for Eovaldi to accept the QO? I would say probably no to the former and maybe to the latter; it's hard to say. 2) Would Eovaldi on a ~1/19 be the end of the world next year? There's plenty of bust potential if he gets hurt and I would prefer to spend the money differently if we don't go over the tax (who knows), but I don't think that would be the end of the world either. If we do intend to go over the tax, that money means little; I think the possibility of a comp pick would be worth the QO. I don't think any decision about the tax will have been made by the time QOs are due, but Bloom & Co. may at least have a thought, and that might influence their QO decision.
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Post by costpet on Aug 26, 2022 9:58:44 GMT -5
I wouldn't throw big money around for a pitcher until I sign Devers. We're going to lose Boggy and JD, so our lineup is going to be pretty weak next year. If Boston, who make zillions of dollars just on their NESN stake, cannot afford Devers and Boggy, then they had better hope their minor league system comes through in a big way. They won't go over the Luxury Tax, so they're not signing big names in the off season. Call me pessimistic, but I don't see a lot of progress next year. We're used to having a few super stars in the lineup every year. Next year we'll have exactly one. And they might lose him in 2024. Whatever the plan is, it's not working yet, if ever. Who would you rather have, Bloom or Cashman? The MFY's don't seem to worry about money. They sign the best out there and always are in the fight. Even Baltimore is better than us now.
Looking at their situation, I don't see a lot of hope in the near future. If I'm wrong, great. But, I don't think so.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 26, 2022 10:42:21 GMT -5
I don't think Paxton or the Sox pick up the option, but I could see them negotiating a new deal somewhere in between.
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Post by manfred on Aug 26, 2022 10:48:37 GMT -5
1) There's a trade proposal subforum for wild trade speculation. Let's keep that there. 2) Great points on Paxton. Fair to think he doesn't exercise the option. I'm thinking it's murky. I was thinking of the whole six starts in 3 years thing but it's not like his situation has changed dramatically. This is the thing that leads me to agree he takes his option. At 34, he hasn’t pitched in years. I am sure he looked good in bullpens, but I’m not sure many teams are going to take a more-than-$4 million risk on that alone. As far as the severity of the lat tear, it is also just the *fact* of the tear. This guy seems like a massive injury risk, which means you are not only paying over that $4 mill for an unknown quality, but you are highly likely to be getting an incomplete season.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 26, 2022 11:13:30 GMT -5
I wouldn't throw big money around for a pitcher until I sign Devers. We're going to lose Boggy and JD, so our lineup is going to be pretty weak next year. If Boston, who make zillions of dollars just on their NESN stake, cannot afford Devers and Boggy, then they had better hope their minor league system comes through in a big way. They won't go over the Luxury Tax, so they're not signing big names in the off season. Call me pessimistic, but I don't see a lot of progress next year. We're used to having a few super stars in the lineup every year. Next year we'll have exactly one. And they might lose him in 2024. Whatever the plan is, it's not working yet, if ever. Who would you rather have, Bloom or Cashman? The MFY's don't seem to worry about money. They sign the best out there and always are in the fight. Even Baltimore is better than us now. Looking at their situation, I don't see a lot of hope in the near future. If I'm wrong, great. But, I don't think so. I’m a cup is half full guy normally. Just not seeing how we improve In 2023. Keep Devers. If Bogey is playing thru nagging injuries, I’d Go 6/150. Then just try to do 3 year deals like we did in 2013. Might keep us relevant/wild card hunt. Only big contract when our group of young guns will be ready in 3 years is Raffy. Story and Bogaerts deals will be winding down. Maybe, the group of; Ceddanne, Bleis, Meyer, Yorke, Romero, Anthony, Banning and Casas works out. Even if 4/8 work out. We could be in good shape. Really need to develop power arms. Might help to draft a few
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 26, 2022 11:40:36 GMT -5
I don't think Paxton or the Sox pick up the option, but I could see them negotiating a new deal somewhere in between. This makes a lot of sense to me too. Perhaps they keep it at 4mil but add achievable incentives that would bring it up to 7mil. (Perhaps 500k for every 20 innings or 9 appearances; up to 120 innings or 54 appearances. Then again, the Red Sox guaranteed him 10mil knowing he couldn't pitch for the first 2/3 of the season, so it's possible he banks on another team guaranteeing him more for next season.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2022 11:41:26 GMT -5
I wouldn't throw big money around for a pitcher until I sign Devers. We're going to lose Boggy and JD, so our lineup is going to be pretty weak next year. If Boston, who make zillions of dollars just on their NESN stake, cannot afford Devers and Boggy, then they had better hope their minor league system comes through in a big way. They won't go over the Luxury Tax, so they're not signing big names in the off season. Call me pessimistic, but I don't see a lot of progress next year. We're used to having a few super stars in the lineup every year. Next year we'll have exactly one. And they might lose him in 2024. Whatever the plan is, it's not working yet, if ever. Who would you rather have, Bloom or Cashman? The MFY's don't seem to worry about money. They sign the best out there and always are in the fight. Even Baltimore is better than us now. Looking at their situation, I don't see a lot of hope in the near future. If I'm wrong, great. But, I don't think so. I’m a cup is half full guy normally. Just not seeing how we improve In 2023. Keep Devers. If Bogey is playing thru nagging injuries, I’d Go 6/150. Then just try to do 3 year deals like we did in 2013. Might keep us relevant/wild card hunt. I think the path to improving in 2023 has something to do with spending the ~$100 million they'll have to spend. Plus Bello and Casas maybe.
On offering Eovaldi the QO... In the four years he's been on his current deal he has a 4.23 ERA. That also strikes me as a reasonable expectation for him next season, with a slightly higher than average injury risk. Is that worth 1/19? Well, it wouldn't be terrible. But I bet Bloom thinks he can find better ways to spend that money.
On Paxton... I also think he ends upas a free agent getting somewhere between $4 million and $13 million (i.e., both sides decline options). But you know who likes free agent pitchers coming off injuries in that price range...? And wouldn't it make sense? Paxton did not live up to the hopes for this season. But he didn't fall apart in a way that suggests he wouldn't be okay coming off of TJ either. So neither side needs to activate their safety valves. But a re-signing by the team that proved itself to be interested in him in the first place makes sense too.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 26, 2022 11:43:32 GMT -5
I don't think Paxton or the Sox pick up the option, but I could see them negotiating a new deal somewhere in between. This makes a lot of sense to me too. Perhaps they keep it at 4mil but add achievable incentives that would bring it up to 7mil. Then again, the Red Sox guaranteed him 10mil knowing he couldn't pitch for the first 2/3 of the season, so it's possible he banks on another team guaranteeing him more fire next season. I could even see them renegotiating basically the same deal again, he'll get $6M and another $4M option, Red Sox get a team option, punt the whole thing a year. Seems unlikely but I dunno it kind of makes sense. He probably can get more than a 1/6 deal though.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 26, 2022 13:13:32 GMT -5
Paxton is prob worth 4m even if we stink. Get a few starts out of him and flip him for a prospect.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 26, 2022 15:36:28 GMT -5
So, Eovaldi is gone and will not get a QO after this latest IL trip. What do we have? Sale (limited innings) Pivertta Wacha * Whitlock (limited innings) Crawford (ditto?)
Bello (ditto)
Winkoswki
Seabold
Walter, Mata, Murphy, Ward
* I'll be stunned of they don't re-sign Wacha, and quite possibly it happens in the exclusive negotiating period. See my last post in his thread for the rationale and the argument that he's really pitched as well as his results.
Given Sale and Whitlock, I think you want two guys on the roster who are spot starters and long relievers. Ideally, they are long relievers who can pitch in high leverage. If you count down to 7 on that list, you get Winkowski, and he'd be a great guy to have in AAA when 7 guys ahead of him were all healthy (which is rare), and as a spot starter and long man (but not working in high leverage) when someone was on the IL. But you'd be in much better shape if you added someone who projects to be a top or strong mid-rotation starter rather than in the back end. Winkowski in the rotation whenever 2 of the 6 guys ahead of him is pennant contender's depth. Having him in the rotation whenever 3 guys are hurt at once is closer to championship depth.
Five options: 1) Sign one of the big FA's. I'm resisting the urge to rank the guys after deGrom and Verlander. 2) Sign or trade for an even better version of Wacha. Wacha was an average 5th starter the previous two years; with us, his xwOBA has improved to below-average 4th starter. And he has the 11th best wOBA in MLB!
As we've seen with Winkowski and Crawford, in a small sample you can get a disproportionate percentage of outings where the pitcher has his best command. It takes much longer to assess how often that happens in the long run. Wacha's results over 83 innings are almost certainly not sustainable, but it's impressive enough to project him as at least a good #3 starter in the long run -- if I'm right about what they've done with him. What if you took a guy who was already, say, a borderline 2/3 stater due to great command and good but nothing-special stuff, and called his pitches as smartly as they seem to be doing with Wacha? You might get a legit ace or borderline ace, in terms of results. This seems the the best option to me ... if it actually exists! 3) Sign or trade for another Wacha; pay a back-of-rotation cost to get strong mid-rotation results. 4) A different sort of upside play, a la Pivetta. The problem here is that these involve actually changing the way a guy pitches, and that can take time.
5) Paxrton? They liked him and if he projects to be healthy, another contract like his current one wouldn't be a shock. Compared to the situation with the position players, this is easy.
The guys in bold are not starters, at least not on a playoff team without 3 elite or near elite pitchers. I think Mata could be an 8th-inning guy or better but with his mechanics, he'll last longer in the pen. Seabold and Wink are relievers, emergency 1-time starters or bust at this point. The Sox are now in a division with four other legit contenders. If they want to get to the WC at the very least, they're not going to do it with some cut-and-paste roster. Also, I agree with you above about Ohtani and the Dodgers, but not NYY. The NYY system is ranked below the Sox in virtually every legit survey. You know who does have a ton of top 100 prospects and a very low current payroll? Baltimore. Not that Ohtani wants to play for them like, ever, but they could get him and build what they have around him without trading away the whole farm. This would be bold but is not happening. They are following the Houston "tank and win" philosophy. Unless Ohtani hits the open market (then he's either a Met or a Dodger) I can't imagine he would commit to a team without hitting the open market - unless he really wants to play with that team. That probably means LAD, NY or possibly SF or Seattle if he still wants to be West Coast based and shorter flights to Japan. With his arm (elite), bat (above MLB average, occasional All Star) and age, his floor will be $50M AAV or more.
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