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Casas to join the sox on Sunday
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2022 4:51:26 GMT -5
505 players have 70+ PA. Casas ranks 1st in lowest O-Swing%.
O-Swing, Z-Swing, overall Swing %:
Player A: 15.3, 56.6, 35.1 Player B: 16.1, 56.4, 35.1
A = Casas B = Soto
Soto makes better contact, though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2022 7:30:30 GMT -5
Casas is still struggling against lefties.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2022 9:07:01 GMT -5
Casas is still struggling against lefties. In 21 PA though with a .200 BABIP. He's only gotten 2 starts against LH starting pitchers and one was Springs who is more of a pseudo-SP. Definitely something to watch, for sure, and I'd like him to get more opportunities the rest of the way if they come up because he's not going to learn to hit LHP from the bench. Starting him against Cortes Sunday night was a good start.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 28, 2022 9:34:21 GMT -5
Casas is still struggling against lefties. In 21 PA though with a .200 BABIP. He's only gotten 2 starts against LH starting pitchers and one was Springs who is more of a pseudo-SP. Definitely something to watch, for sure, and I'd like him to get more opportunities the rest of the way if they come up because he's not going to learn to hit LHP from the bench. Starting him against Cortes Sunday night was a good start. This is where I struggle with the, "They need to bring in a veteran right handed batting 1b in the offseason" take. Would it be for the best for the 2023 season, probably, but at what cost to the longer and greater good of Casas and the team? He simply cannot just sit next year every time they face a lefty, he needs to get some of those reps, no matter what the struggle is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2022 10:10:00 GMT -5
In 21 PA though with a .200 BABIP. He's only gotten 2 starts against LH starting pitchers and one was Springs who is more of a pseudo-SP. Definitely something to watch, for sure, and I'd like him to get more opportunities the rest of the way if they come up because he's not going to learn to hit LHP from the bench. Starting him against Cortes Sunday night was a good start. This is where I struggle with the, "They need to bring in a veteran right handed batting 1b in the offseason" take. Would it be for the best for the 2023 season, probably, but at what cost to the longer and greater good of Casas and the team? He simply cannot just sit next year every time they face a lefty, he needs to get some of those reps, no matter what the struggle is. Honestly, Dalbec in a part-time role fits the bill for me. Give him starts in good match-ups for him, like 200-300 PA. He fits perfectly in that role.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 28, 2022 10:14:49 GMT -5
In 21 PA though with a .200 BABIP. He's only gotten 2 starts against LH starting pitchers and one was Springs who is more of a pseudo-SP. Definitely something to watch, for sure, and I'd like him to get more opportunities the rest of the way if they come up because he's not going to learn to hit LHP from the bench. Starting him against Cortes Sunday night was a good start. This is where I struggle with the, "They need to bring in a veteran right handed batting 1b in the offseason" take. Would it be for the best for the 2023 season, probably, but at what cost to the longer and greater good of Casas and the team? He simply cannot just sit next year every time they face a lefty, he needs to get some of those reps, no matter what the struggle is. I agree with no RH back up 1B. With a bench of say Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, and maybe Chang, the Red Sox would need Hosmer as a LH bench bat (assuming no full time DH).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2022 11:40:59 GMT -5
This is where I struggle with the, "They need to bring in a veteran right handed batting 1b in the offseason" take. Would it be for the best for the 2023 season, probably, but at what cost to the longer and greater good of Casas and the team? He simply cannot just sit next year every time they face a lefty, he needs to get some of those reps, no matter what the struggle is. I agree with no RH back up 1B. With a bench of say Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, and maybe Chang, the Red Sox would need Hosmer as a LH bench bat (assuming no full time DH). Dalbec is toast, Hosmer has a lifetime of reverse splits. Only downside here is that given his price tag, Hosmer would potentially be a major trade chip. Casas isn't going to get enough ABs to make any kind of call.
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Post by e on Sept 28, 2022 11:45:37 GMT -5
I agree with no RH back up 1B. With a bench of say Arroyo, Wong, Refsnyder, and maybe Chang, the Red Sox would need Hosmer as a LH bench bat (assuming no full time DH). Dalbec is toast, Hosmer has a lifetime of reverse splits. Only downside here is that given his price tag, Hosmer would potentially be a major trade chip. Casas isn't going to get enough ABs to make any kind of call. For his career, Hosmer has a .810 ops against right handers and a .688 ops against left handers. He's had reverse splits this year, but I would be hesitant to believe its something that will carry over into next year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2022 11:59:50 GMT -5
Dalbec is toast, Hosmer has a lifetime of reverse splits. Only downside here is that given his price tag, Hosmer would potentially be a major trade chip. Casas isn't going to get enough ABs to make any kind of call. For his career, Hosmer has a .810 ops against right handers and a .688 ops against left handers. He's had reverse splits this year, but I would be hesitant to believe its something that will carry over into next year. My bad, I don't know why I was thinking that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2022 21:45:26 GMT -5
.079 / .205 / .237, 44 PA in 14 G. .400/ .600 / .850, 30 PA in 7 G.
12 SO, 6 BB 5 SO, 10 BB
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 3:18:32 GMT -5
Red Sox Win Probability Added, 2020-2022
7.22 Devers 4.98 Verdugo 2.36 Bogaerts 1.49 Moreland 0.99 Arroyo 0.60 Schwarber 0.57 Casas --other current players 0.29 Refsnyder 0.12 McGwire 0.04 Almonte -.01 Chang -.07 Wong -.08 Davis, J. -.16 Downs -.30 Hosmer -.44 Story
-.45 Martinez -.52 Cordero -.53 Duran -.61 Pham -.67 Hernandez -1.15 Dalbec
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 12:22:04 GMT -5
This is getting silly.
So, I've constructed objective similarity scores for the two aspects of plate discipline, swing decisions and swing results.
Swing decisions uses Zone%, O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%, weighted equally.
Swing results uses Zone%, O-Contact%, and Z-Contact%, weighted equally.
I first verified that Juan Soto is a crazy good comp for Swing Decisions (minimum 350 PA):
46.7, 16.5, 57.0 Casas
47.0, 16.2, 56.5 Soto (Sim Score 96.7; next best is Max Muncy, 79.3)
And here's the comp for Swing Results:
46.7, 42.9, 82.4 Casas 47.3, 45.8, 83.0 Player X (Sim Score 91.2; next best is Jeremy Pena, 90.7)
Who's Player X?
Take the silliest possible guess. As in, if this were fiction, you'd laugh at the author for thinking we'd believe that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 13:00:39 GMT -5
This is getting silly.
So, I've constructed objective similarity scores for the two aspects of plate discipline, swing decisions and swing results.
Swing decisions uses Zone%, O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%, weighted equally.
Swing results uses Zone%, O-Contact%, and Z-Contact%, weighted equally.
I first verified that Juan Soto is a crazy good comp for Swing Decisions (minimum 350 PA):
46.7, 16.5, 57.0 Casas
47.0, 16.2, 56.5 Soto (Sim Score 96.7; next best is Max Muncy, 79.3)
And here's the comp for Swing Results:
46.7, 42.9, 82.4 Casas 47.3, 45.8, 83.0 Player X (Sim Score 91.2; next best is Jeremy Pena, 90.7)
Who's Player X?
Take the silliest possible guess. As in, if this were fiction, you'd laugh at the author for thinking we'd believe that.
Yup, it's Aaron Judge.
Note that I put little or not stock on this one. It's just like the universe is scamming me to make me as high as possible on Casas.
If Casas stays hot, the second comp will change, as he his Z-Contact cold was 79.3 and is 88.9 in his hot streak. That's 12th percentile to 80th. I bet all sluggers do this, and we'll need a much larger sample size to get a handle on his Z-Contact overall.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2022 15:25:02 GMT -5
Weird sample for Casas so far full of hyperbolic junk. I don’t want to overanalyze it. But keeping your K rate in check and having a beautiful chase rate are very good places to build a foundation, especially at his size. I’m not buying into the 40 HR pace he’s on, but I expected him to be whiffing a lot more this month. Rare W for this year’s team
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 29, 2022 15:27:56 GMT -5
800+ (decent chance)ops and plus defense works for dummies like me.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 29, 2022 17:33:21 GMT -5
Casas is still struggling against lefties. I'd have to find the episode it was on specifically, but I remember Eno Sarris answering a question about LH/RH splits on the Rates and Barrels podcast.. I believe it was something like 1,000 PAs needed for handedness splits to normalize. I'll look for it later in case anyone wants to listen to it.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2022 19:41:45 GMT -5
Casas is still struggling against lefties. I'd have to find the episode it was on specifically, but I remember Eno Sarris answering a question about LH/RH splits on the Rates and Barrels podcast.. I believe it was something like 1,000 PAs needed for handedness splits to normalize. I'll look for it later in case anyone wants to listen to it. By contrast, walk rate stabilizes at around 120 PAs. Casas is at 21.8% after 78 PAs. If he doesn't draw a single walk in his next 42 PAs he'd still reach that stabilization point with a 14% walk rate.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 29, 2022 22:15:09 GMT -5
I'd have to find the episode it was on specifically, but I remember Eno Sarris answering a question about LH/RH splits on the Rates and Barrels podcast.. I believe it was something like 1,000 PAs needed for handedness splits to normalize. I'll look for it later in case anyone wants to listen to it. By contrast, walk rate stabilizes at around 120 PAs. Casas is at 21.8% after 78 PAs. If he doesn't draw a single walk in his next 42 PAs he'd still reach that stabilization point with a 14% walk rate. I'm not sure if stabilizing was the right word to use on my end. But either way, I tweeted at Eno and he replied with the article he was talking about, so here it is. blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 23:00:28 GMT -5
I'd have to find the episode it was on specifically, but I remember Eno Sarris answering a question about LH/RH splits on the Rates and Barrels podcast.. I believe it was something like 1,000 PAs needed for handedness splits to normalize. I'll look for it later in case anyone wants to listen to it. By contrast, walk rate stabilizes at around 120 PAs. Casas is at 21.8% after 78 PAs. If he doesn't draw a single walk in his next 42 PAs he'd still reach that stabilization point with a 14% walk rate. I'd bet that O-swing stabilizes a bit quicker.
Casas is now hitting .213 / .385 / .475. The hot streak is now 34 PA and is .435 / .618 / .870. That's been done against better-than-average pitching; I'll have those numbers tomorrow.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 29, 2022 23:28:13 GMT -5
By contrast, walk rate stabilizes at around 120 PAs. Casas is at 21.8% after 78 PAs. If he doesn't draw a single walk in his next 42 PAs he'd still reach that stabilization point with a 14% walk rate. I'm not sure if stabilizing was the right word to use on my end. But either way, I tweeted at Eno and he replied with the article he was talking about, so here it is. blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/Normalizing yes but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's his carreer history not just a few MLB games. It exists whether or not it's stabilized or whatever term you chose to use. ADD: Don't get me wrong, I think he's doing great on both sides of the ball. If he was a right handed hitter the problem would be far more significant since the majority of pitches thrown are from righties.
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Post by stunzisox on Sept 30, 2022 8:04:39 GMT -5
Interview with MLB network yesterday
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2022 12:32:30 GMT -5
So Casas made it clear early on that he wanted to be a complete hitter. At this point, I'd suggest we take him at his word. I've never felt that he was focused on only hitting for power and his approach confirms that. He already knows he can hit home runs. He's more interested in doing whatever it takes to move around the bases. Really surprising, to me, is how umpires are already starting to defer to his discipline. That's really unusual for a rookie. My opinion is that pitch recognition will make him a very dangerous and very valuable member of the Sox.
We can ignore the average for now, given the .205 BABIP and the .385 OBP. He's been on-base regularly, scoring runs and hitting HRs when he gets hold of something he can launch. Pitchers who've been trying to tease him outside have been burned as he's laid off the marginal stuff, and gone onto and over the green wall when those pitches are in the zone. What do they do next, pitch him center in? He's already shown what that he can blast any mistakes inside a long way. He comes as advertised.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 30, 2022 12:58:20 GMT -5
0:32-0:45 is a grand master level cliche string.
"I chase OBP, not SLG." MORE OF THIS IN THE RED SOX LINEUP PLEASE.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2022 13:53:48 GMT -5
0:32-0:45 is a grand master level cliche string. "I chase OBP, not SLG." MORE OF THIS IN THE RED SOX LINEUP PLEASE.
This is the undervalued metric currently in the homer-mad/power-thirsty MLB. Stop trying to turn singles/doubles hitters into HR hitters and instead have everyone focus on OBP and working the count. If you have a basher or two, great. Otherwise, you can go buy one or more and surround them with "pesky" high on-base pros.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2022 13:55:23 GMT -5
0:32-0:45 is a grand master level cliche string.
"I chase OBP, not SLG." MORE OF THIS IN THE RED SOX LINEUP PLEASE.
It sounded as if he's been collecting them in a notebook!
Two reactions to this interview:
1) Given how serious he seems on the field, it was great to see how much he loves the game, and to hear how much fun he's actually having.
2) This is the intelligence of Lars Anderson with a hugely welcome 180 degree twist, all the eccentricity and self-doubt replaced by an extraordinary level of groundedness, and huge self confidence that doesn't seem to have any attached egocentricity.
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