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Red Sox $4.5m over CBT in 2022
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 27, 2022 13:01:54 GMT -5
We literally only have to travel back to LAST season to have seen the Sox in a similar situation in which their strategy succeeded. They stood pat because they thought they were getting healthy and THEY DID! getting Sale back was equivalent to the best deadline move out there and they came within two games of a WS.
This year, they didn't get healthy, many guys who were supposed to come back didn't and others went down. If you look at this outside the lens of "I'm a fan and I only care about this year" and trying to build a sustainable business model the Sox strategy makes perfect sense. A cleaner bill of health likely sees the Sox in competition right now, yet they're set up for an offseason with a great catching tandem, a back up 1B for free if their prized rookie struggles and options on other fronts.
I must admit, it's not a great look being over by 4.5 million, but would they have taken heat for that if they looked poised to be heading into the playoffs right now? no, I believe they would not.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2022 15:43:10 GMT -5
We literally only have to travel back to LAST season to have seen the Sox in a similar situation in which their strategy succeeded. They stood pat because they thought they were getting healthy and THEY DID! getting Sale back was equivalent to the best deadline move out there and they came within two games of a WS. This year, they didn't get healthy, many guys who were supposed to come back didn't and others went down. If you look at this outside the lens of "I'm a fan and I only care about this year" and trying to build a sustainable business model the Sox strategy makes perfect sense. A cleaner bill of health likely sees the Sox in competition right now, yet they're set up for an offseason with a great catching tandem, a back up 1B for free if their prized rookie struggles and options on other fronts. I must admit, it's not a great look being over by 4.5 million, but would they have taken heat for that if they looked poised to be heading into the playoffs right now? no, I believe they would not. Ehhh, I think trading for Schwarber (which required a top 10 prospect) is on a very different level than the Hosmer (top 30ish and only b/c SD was paying the entire contract and sending 2 guys) or Pham (NR minor leaguer) trades. At the deadline last year they were also leading the division and holding the 2 seed, 6.5 games ahead of the first non-playoff team, compared to this year when they were 3 back (I've been saying 2 back but I think that incorrectly includes the game on 8/2) and had to leapfrog 2 other non-playoff position teams, so the situations were pretty different.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2022 17:04:07 GMT -5
We literally only have to travel back to LAST season to have seen the Sox in a similar situation in which their strategy succeeded. They stood pat because they thought they were getting healthy and THEY DID! getting Sale back was equivalent to the best deadline move out there and they came within two games of a WS. This year, they didn't get healthy, many guys who were supposed to come back didn't and others went down. If you look at this outside the lens of "I'm a fan and I only care about this year" and trying to build a sustainable business model the Sox strategy makes perfect sense. A cleaner bill of health likely sees the Sox in competition right now, yet they're set up for an offseason with a great catching tandem, a back up 1B for free if their prized rookie struggles and options on other fronts. I must admit, it's not a great look being over by 4.5 million, but would they have taken heat for that if they looked poised to be heading into the playoffs right now? no, I believe they would not. The trading deadline situations were totally different last year. The Sox were playing damn good ball at the time of the deadline. It's not like they were waiting for their first series win within the division. They were a good team playing well, somehow winning games you wouldn't think they would. They struggled mightily after the deadline in August, but at the time of the deadline they were very much in the buyer category. To compare them to their situation this year makes no sense to me. This year, they were already drowning at the time of the trade deadline. They had gone from 11 games over .500 to a little below .500 at the time of the deadline as opposed to being about 20 games at the deadline the prior year. They were already headed to the bottom of the division and had a bunch of other teams ahead of them and they certainly weren't in a prime position to turn it around. Honestly, there is no surprise that the Sox didn't play competitive baseball beyond the deadline or that they were going to drift far out of the wild card race. It's more than injuries. The team simply isn't that good. They couldn't beat the good teams that reside in their division. That was true as of the deadline. That's still true now. Their pitching simply wasn't good and their offense certainly isn't good enough to make up for it. The 30% fangraph stuff is silly. This isn't a team that was going anywhere. Bloom should have gotten under the tax limit. He could have dumped JDM or Eovaldi on the side of the road. Somebody most likely would have bit. Even with the slump JDM was in at the time I think a competitive team needing a DH and with payroll space would have likely have taken him on. And it's probable somebody would have gambled on Eovaldi. Of course these teams would have lost those gambles, but I think the odds are that one team would have taken one of those guys and the Sox would have snuck under and been able to benefit more in future years where their "fangraphs odds" were better than 28% or whatever the heck it was. Honestly if you can't build a strong team capable of winning in the post-season, what's the point of hoping some flawed 83 win team makes it as a 3rd wild card? Sure, the 2006 Cards and 1987 Twins did, but not many teams of that caliber are successful and it's harder now with all the levels of playoffs and the need to win, what, 13 games in the post-season against great teams. The 2022 Red Sox simply weren't worth the gamble. A team like the 2021 Red Sox were sure as heck worth the gamble.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 27, 2022 22:01:33 GMT -5
I disagree with people who say JDM and Nasty Nate had little to no trade value at the salaries they make. But even if that's true, the RS could have subsidized one or both of them to move them.
JDM's AAV is $22M. Moving him would have saved a third of that, so north of $7M, or enough to get under the LTT. If they had no takers for that, they could have thrown in a couple million $$$ and still gotten under. I can't believe that not a single contender would have found him attractive under a scenario like that.
I just hope they get under next year and not put it off until 2024.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 28, 2022 0:05:12 GMT -5
I disagree with people who say JDM and Nasty Nate had little to no trade value at the salaries they make. But even if that's true, the RS could have subsidized one or both of them to move them. JDM's AAV is $22M. Moving him would have saved a third of that, so north of $7M, or enough to get under the LTT. If they had no takers for that, they could have thrown in a couple million $$$ and still gotten under. I can't believe that not a single contender would have found him attractive under a scenario like that. I just hope they get under next year and not put it off until 2024. Other teams have scouts. And probably saw what we are seeing. JDM is cooked. And would not have helped anyone.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 28, 2022 7:58:15 GMT -5
We literally only have to travel back to LAST season to have seen the Sox in a similar situation in which their strategy succeeded. They stood pat because they thought they were getting healthy and THEY DID! getting Sale back was equivalent to the best deadline move out there and they came within two games of a WS. This year, they didn't get healthy, many guys who were supposed to come back didn't and others went down. If you look at this outside the lens of "I'm a fan and I only care about this year" and trying to build a sustainable business model the Sox strategy makes perfect sense. A cleaner bill of health likely sees the Sox in competition right now, yet they're set up for an offseason with a great catching tandem, a back up 1B for free if their prized rookie struggles and options on other fronts. I must admit, it's not a great look being over by 4.5 million, but would they have taken heat for that if they looked poised to be heading into the playoffs right now? no, I believe they would not. Ehhh, I think trading for Schwarber (which required a top 10 prospect) is on a very different level than the Hosmer (top 30ish and only b/c SD was paying the entire contract and sending 2 guys) or Pham (NR minor leaguer) trades. At the deadline last year they were also leading the division and holding the 2 seed, 6.5 games ahead of the first non-playoff team, compared to this year when they were 3 back (I've been saying 2 back but I think that incorrectly includes the game on 8/2) and had to leapfrog 2 other non-playoff position teams, so the situations were pretty different. Let me clarify what I was trying to say, the situation was similiar in that they were banking on a cleaner bill of health in the second half of the season. It seems that was the case last year as was this year, thinking guys were going to come back and help the team down the stretch. Did they have bats coming back last year like this year? makes sense that they wouldn't make a Schwarber move thinking that Story and Kiké were on their way back. Worked last year, not this year. I was going to ask you were you think Aldo might be ranked in this system but then I looked it up and saw he hasn't even pitched this year so perhaps I'm not going to do that to you. Off topic, I spent 10 minutes looking up Jalen Beeks, confused, before realizing for some reason I was thinking of Beeks instead of Aldo.
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 2, 2022 11:31:43 GMT -5
I disagree with people who say JDM and Nasty Nate had little to no trade value at the salaries they make. But even if that's true, the RS could have subsidized one or both of them to move them. JDM's AAV is $22M. Moving him would have saved a third of that, so north of $7M, or enough to get under the LTT. If they had no takers for that, they could have thrown in a couple million $$$ and still gotten under. I can't believe that not a single contender would have found him attractive under a scenario like that. I just hope they get under next year and not put it off until 2024. Other teams have scouts. And probably saw what we are seeing. JDM is cooked. And would not have helped anyone. He had just come back from a back injury and had played bad baseball for like a week since returning. Assuming he's washed to the point where you won't take on a ~$7 million tax hit to pick him up based on that kind of a sample makes no sense. For many contenders that money would have had little to no luxury tax implications. 115-120 wRC+ bats, especially veterans with playoff experience that are basically able to serve as a second hitting coach and improve other hitters on the team, do not grow on trees. JDM clearly had value at the deadline and it was accordingly reported that multiple teams had interest. The reason he did not get traded is because the Sox were asking for an overpay in order to justify hurting the 2022 roster to trade him. I disagree with this decision, but from Bloom's comments on the deadline and the Sox' reported asking price for JDM, that's clearly what happened.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 2, 2022 19:40:13 GMT -5
Who cares about the CAP. It’s a soft cap. Any fan should not care if the team goes over or not. If ownership is willing to pay the tab or not. What’s the difference realy?? It’s not our money. That said to have this big of payrole with a 75 win team is unacceptable.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 2, 2022 19:49:07 GMT -5
Other teams have scouts. And probably saw what we are seeing. JDM is cooked. And would not have helped anyone. He had just come back from a back injury and had played bad baseball for like a week since returning. Assuming he's washed to the point where you won't take on a ~$7 million tax hit to pick him up based on that kind of a sample makes no sense. For many contenders that money would have had little to no luxury tax implications. 115-120 wRC+ bats, especially veterans with playoff experience that are basically able to serve as a second hitting coach and improve other hitters on the team, do not grow on trees. JDM clearly had value at the deadline and it was accordingly reported that multiple teams had interest. The reason he did not get traded is because the Sox were asking for an overpay in order to justify hurting the 2022 roster to trade him. I disagree with this decision, but from Bloom's comments on the deadline and the Sox' reported asking price for JDM, that's clearly what happened. Same thing happened with Eovaldi. The Sox were in a playoff race, but were competing with 3 other teams for the last wild card spot. Bloom was really good last year in 2021, but besides Wacha, he really had a bad year in terms of planning and building the 2022 team. We might look at 2022 as Bloom's Gorilla suit year, looking back on it some day.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Oct 2, 2022 19:53:56 GMT -5
Who cares about the CAP. It’s a soft cap. Any fan should not care if the team goes over or not. If ownership is willing to pay the tab or not. What’s the difference realy?? It’s not our money. That said to have this big of payrole with a 75 win team is unacceptable. Maybe I’m missing your point, but Sox fans should and do care about being $4.5 million over solely because Chaim Bloom and John Henry care about it. The fact of being over is going to impact their decision making in big and small ways.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2022 20:15:40 GMT -5
Who cares about the CAP. It’s a soft cap. Any fan should not care if the team goes over or not. If ownership is willing to pay the tab or not. What’s the difference realy?? It’s not our money. That said to have this big of payrole with a 75 win team is unacceptable. I care about the cap, but not because I care about how big a profit Henry and company turn, but more because Henry has made it clear that going over the cap is fine as long as you duck under before the penalties (financial and otherwise) become too large, so at some point the Sox are going to cut payroll and duck under. Wouldn't it make sense for them to duck under this year, a year that was basically a worthless waste of time, than a few years into the future when the Sox (hopefully) would be a viable contender and could benefit from going over, but instead would have to duck under, thus hurting their chances of fielding their best team possible? That's what my biggest issue is. A smaller but real issue is screwing themselves if/when Xander leaves. It means they get a 4th round pick rather than a 2nd round pick which could be a significant thing. I know some people here liked their one foot in one foot out strategy this past deadline, but I think it was an awful decision trying to keep this drowning team mostly intact and worse staying over the limit for no good reason. This July would have been the right time to duck under to better provide for a better future (along with trading players who could have helped net them some future help). Don't really want to reopen that debate again, but there is a real impact to gambling and losing with having to waste a over the cap year for a dead last place team when that really could have been avoided.
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 3, 2022 8:34:22 GMT -5
He had just come back from a back injury and had played bad baseball for like a week since returning. Assuming he's washed to the point where you won't take on a ~$7 million tax hit to pick him up based on that kind of a sample makes no sense. For many contenders that money would have had little to no luxury tax implications. 115-120 wRC+ bats, especially veterans with playoff experience that are basically able to serve as a second hitting coach and improve other hitters on the team, do not grow on trees. JDM clearly had value at the deadline and it was accordingly reported that multiple teams had interest. The reason he did not get traded is because the Sox were asking for an overpay in order to justify hurting the 2022 roster to trade him. I disagree with this decision, but from Bloom's comments on the deadline and the Sox' reported asking price for JDM, that's clearly what happened. Same thing happened with Eovaldi. The Sox were in a playoff race, but were competing with 3 other teams for the last wild card spot. Bloom was really good last year in 2021, but besides Wacha, he really had a bad year in terms of planning and building the 2022 team. We might look at 2022 as Bloom's Gorilla suit year, looking back on it some day. The team building was mostly fine. In terms of trades and signings, many worked out. Hill (1.8 fWAR for $5 mil), Schreiber (1.7 fWAR for peanuts), Refsnyder (1.3 fWAR for peanuts in 177 PA). If Strahm had stayed healthy it might have been good value, but it ended up meh. The Diekman trade turned that into a W too; Diekman + McGuire have combined for 0.7 fWAR for ~$3 mil this year (1.2 fWAR from McGuire), and McGuire looks the part of a starting catcher next year. Hosmer's been injured, but him at the league minimum has some value. Story's been solid on a rate basis - just too many injuries this year; jury's still out on that contract. Basically the only 2022 signing/acquisition bigger than a league minimum deal or waiver claim that didn't work out was JBJ. I wish Bloom had signed another OF, had cycled through bullpen arms a bit quicker, and got under the LT at the deadline by trading JDM and/or Eovaldi. That's basically it, though, and none of that would have changed the outcome this year. This team was just destroyed by injuries and was also hurt by underperformance from some key guys. I wish the Bloom thread was still open so I could just direct this there lol Edit: You could argue Paxton didn't work out, but that contract was always geared towards 2023-24 and it was derailed in 2022 by a new injury. We'll see if he's back.
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Post by seamus on Oct 3, 2022 13:13:23 GMT -5
Who cares about the CAP. It’s a soft cap. Any fan should not care if the team goes over or not. If ownership is willing to pay the tab or not. What’s the difference realy?? It’s not our money. That said to have this big of payrole with a 75 win team is unacceptable. I care about the cap, but not because I care about how big a profit Henry and company turn, but more because Henry has made it clear that going over the cap is fine as long as you duck under before the penalties (financial and otherwise) become too large, so at some point the Sox are going to cut payroll and duck under. Wouldn't it make sense for them to duck under this year, a year that was basically a worthless waste of time, than a few years into the future when the Sox (hopefully) would be a viable contender and could benefit from going over, but instead would have to duck under, thus hurting their chances of fielding their best team possible?
That's what my biggest issue is. A smaller but real issue is screwing themselves if/when Xander leaves. It means they get a 4th round pick rather than a 2nd round pick which could be a significant thing. I know some people here liked their one foot in one foot out strategy this past deadline, but I think it was an awful decision trying to keep this drowning team mostly intact and worse staying over the limit for no good reason. This July would have been the right time to duck under to better provide for a better future (along with trading players who could have helped net them some future help). Don't really want to reopen that debate again, but there is a real impact to gambling and losing with having to waste a over the cap year for a dead last place team when that really could have been avoided. You could also argue that taking the chance for a playoff run this year (without taking on long-term salary) and waiting to duck under until next year is the better strategy. Ducking under next year will be much more feasible without at all compromising the team's ability to compete, and it postpones when they'll have to reset again by another season. Basically, they're waiting for the "gas running low" light to come on before filling up and thus getting farther overall before they need to stop for gas a second time.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2022 13:18:48 GMT -5
I care about the cap, but not because I care about how big a profit Henry and company turn, but more because Henry has made it clear that going over the cap is fine as long as you duck under before the penalties (financial and otherwise) become too large, so at some point the Sox are going to cut payroll and duck under. Wouldn't it make sense for them to duck under this year, a year that was basically a worthless waste of time, than a few years into the future when the Sox (hopefully) would be a viable contender and could benefit from going over, but instead would have to duck under, thus hurting their chances of fielding their best team possible?
That's what my biggest issue is. A smaller but real issue is screwing themselves if/when Xander leaves. It means they get a 4th round pick rather than a 2nd round pick which could be a significant thing. I know some people here liked their one foot in one foot out strategy this past deadline, but I think it was an awful decision trying to keep this drowning team mostly intact and worse staying over the limit for no good reason. This July would have been the right time to duck under to better provide for a better future (along with trading players who could have helped net them some future help). Don't really want to reopen that debate again, but there is a real impact to gambling and losing with having to waste a over the cap year for a dead last place team when that really could have been avoided. You could also argue that taking the chance for a playoff run this year (without taking on long-term salary) and waiting to duck under until next year is the better strategy. Ducking under next year will be much more feasible without at all compromising the team's ability to compete, and it postpones when they'll have to reset again by another season. Basically, they're waiting for the "gas running low" light to come on before filling up and thus getting farther overall before they need to stop for gas a second time. One thing Bloom likes to say is that the goal is to build a consistent winner. If you take that seriously, then it makes sense to go over the CBT when the team's prospects are at their worst because that's when the extra spending is most necessary to try to get them over the hump.
It especially made sense this year when they have so many big contracts in their final year, and enormous financial flexibility next year will make it much easier to get under the CBT. The only mystery is why they didn't go over the limit by more.
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