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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 20, 2015 7:06:07 GMT -5
That's just the thing-- I think there's a substantial likelihood that he's much worse than a 1.5 to 2 win player. Considering his minor league track record and his skill set, there's a good chance he ends up striking out a lot and not hiring for much power, in which case they're in trouble if the backup plan is a similarly fringy option. Assuming you're talking about Shaw: He'll prob be between 19-22% K, but he has shown to be someone who walks quite a lot too once he adjusts, which can offset that. The biggest question for me is how his power will play/develop. If he's a ~150 ISO guy, he probably won't stick, but if he can hit for power and be a ~200 ISO guy, he could definitely be a starter. I would lean towards the 150 side, but the power is there somewhere judging by the sheer distance of 4 out of his 6 home runs. He has legitimate upside, but I wouldn't put too much stock in him next year. I think acquiring an average starter with Shaw as a backup is a cost efficient and safe play at 1B next year.
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Post by jmei on Aug 20, 2015 7:11:17 GMT -5
Whoops-- fair point, I think that description suits Sam Travis much better.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 20, 2015 8:05:54 GMT -5
But if you aren't going with Travis Shaw next season, what are your options? I only see two that would be substantial upgrades over Shaw: Davis or Park. Abreu if the White Sox are willing to deal him, but I doubt it. Are you willing to pay all that money for Davis when you need so many rotation upgrades? Or are you willing to take a gamble on Park translating to MLB? I don't feel comfortable with either option. I'd rather see what the Sox have in Shaw. If the rest of the team can perform close to expectations, they should be fine with Shaw at first base.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Aug 20, 2015 8:14:20 GMT -5
Basically we need to see what Shaw does playing everyday for the rest of the season. If he finishes with hitting over .300 with consistent power and there are no subtle red flags (high K rate, low BB rate, hitting .100 the last 2 weeks when pitchers figure out his hole, etc) then really I think you have to give him a chance next year. If Dombrowski plans to keep all the high salary guys like Sandoval, Hanley, Porcello, Rusney around next year, then having a cheap poor-man's Adam Dunn at 1B to hit in the bottom of the lineup is pretty valuable. It allows you to spend money on your pitching staff. Now if he can move some salary off this team, then I absolutely bring in a better option at 1B, and keep Shaw around as a backup to 1B/3B and maybe send him to AAA to learn some LF and put him on the MLB bench.
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Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2015 8:48:42 GMT -5
Perhaps we could get everyone here to agree on T.Shaw or S.Travis to be sure we are talking about the same prospect. Should Shaw finish this season well, lets assume he will face the common sophomore slump as every team now scrutinizes for any weakness. I would rather get a low cost backup free-agent as an alternate. If Shaw hits well next year, then he's on the 25-man, otherwise he does more development in AAA. For now, I waiting for the up arrow next to #14, his range changed from 3-4 to perhaps 3-5(6?). Shaw's current line of .369 BA .677 SLG and the assessment of fringe-average hit tool, average power will collide and something needs to give.
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Post by jmei on Aug 20, 2015 9:05:28 GMT -5
But if you aren't going with Travis Shaw next season, what are your options? I only see two that would be substantial upgrades over Shaw: Davis or Park. Abreu if the White Sox are willing to deal him, but I doubt it. Are you willing to pay all that money for Davis when you need so many rotation upgrades? Or are you willing to take a gamble on Park translating to MLB? I don't feel comfortable with either option. I'd rather see what the Sox have in Shaw. If the rest of the team can perform close to expectations, they should be fine with Shaw at first base. Well, having Shaw in the organization makes it less risky to sign a high-risk, high-reward guy like Park (whose posting fee won't count against the luxury tax threshold). I also think there are guys like Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Carlos Santana, Yonder Alonso, etc. will be available in trade and would be upgrades on Shaw in my mind. Those guys are generally LHH, so a platoon between them and Shaw is not ideal, but there are a few interesting RHH platoon partners who will be available as well (Chris Colabello, Steve Pearce (FA), old friend Mike Napoli, bad contract swap guys like Ryan Zimmerman or Chris Johnson).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 20, 2015 9:13:04 GMT -5
I'd send Shaw to winter baseball to see if he could play LF well enough to back up there. Move Hanley to 1B, have an OF of Betts, JBJ, Castillo, IF of Pablo, Xander, Pedroia, Hanley, get a RHH backup corner OF/1B who can play RF (too bad about Craig), Shaw backs up 1B/3B/LF, and the Brockstar fills the SuperU role with 400-500 ABs and backs up middle IF. Done! With the big assumption that Hanley can play 1B, of course ...
So Shaw is essentially Mike Carp but with the very good addition that he can play 3B, too.
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Post by jmei on Aug 20, 2015 9:18:29 GMT -5
I'd send Shaw to winter baseball to see if he could play LF well enough to back up there. Move Hanley to 1B, have an OF of Betts, JBJ, Castillo, IF of Pablo, Xander, Pedroia, Hanley, get a RHH backup corner OF/1B who can play RF (too bad about Craig), Shaw backs up 1B/3B/LF, and the Brockstar fills the SuperU role with 400-500 ABs and backs up middle IF. Done! With the big assumption that Hanley can play 1B, of course ... So Shaw is essentially Mike Carp but with the very good addition that he can play 3B, too. Yeah, this is a great point and one that should have been pointed out earlier, Shaw is also the ideal caddy for a Hanley-to-1B experiment (or a Hanley-to-3B, Pablo-to-1B one).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 20, 2015 9:24:57 GMT -5
I feel like this three-some would create great depth: 1. Hanley 2. Byung-Ho Park 3. Travis Shaw
Park has the upside and is destroying the baseball this year (.737 SLG). He could be a good platoon partner and RHH off the bench (which I feel is needed) if Hanley doesn't workout at 1B (could try Hanley at 3B and move Pablo of course). Only question I have about HO is 'could he play RF/LF in a pinch?'. If the answer is yes, then that helps even more (he has solid SB numbers, but I haven't read anything about his speed or position flexibility) since Brentz/Craig aren't looking like fantastic options right now.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 20, 2015 13:42:37 GMT -5
But if you aren't going with Travis Shaw next season, what are your options? Matt Hague! Seriously though, one problem with the Red Sox the last two years has been the same thing the Yankees did from about 2005 to 2013 - that false binary choice between "expensive star who we can pay a lot for" and "guy who is already here." That's sort of what jmei was getting to in his post, but it's an issue of marginal upgrades. If you have a 1.0 WAR player, then trying to upgrade to a 6.0 WAR player is wonderful. But if you can't do that, there's no reason to settle for that 1.0 WAR player. Get a 2.0 or 1.5 WAR player, be creative. It's the same argument I kept using this offseason in the third base discussion when people would say "I don't love the Sandoval deal but he's better than Middlebrooks!" as if those were the only two options. Interestingly, that's something Cherinton was horrendous at the last two years, but was the key to his team building in 2013. He brought in players who weren't great but were upgrades - Napoli, Victorino (who ended up being great but they had no reason to think he would be, only better), Gomes, Breslow, Dempster, Carp even though it looks like he was a fluke. I'll point out again that I'm dealing a bit more in the theoretical than with Shaw specifically. But that's sort of critical to the point. The argument for starting Shaw needs to be "Shaw is good enough to start. Period." And frankly, that argument is there and some people have made it reasonably well. If the argument is "we don't have anyone better, so let's just play him" then that lacks the creativity necessary to team building at the margins.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 20, 2015 14:02:16 GMT -5
The most impressive thing about Travis Shaw is not the power surge. That's largely been driven by an unsustainable .353 BABIP. It's his discipline, something he's exhibited at every level and what's impressed me the most about his ML breakout. He's got an excellent feel for the strikezone from watching him now that he's made the majors (in HD on my TV!). That's probably played a significant role in the way he's been able to establish himself now that he's been called up.
Since there's not much of a book on him (high and tight maybe?) that discipline has played right into his hands as pitchers try to figure him out. He's been able to stay away from pitches right on the edge of the zone, and really drive the low stuff over the plate with quite a bit of lift. All that makes me think that, despite his mediocre MiLB track record, he does have a future in the majors, though it may not be as a starter. In a nutshell: a hitter who can drive the ball and has very good plate discipline will always draw walks as pitchers, especially those with middling control, try to tiptoe around his sweet spot. He's also given hints that he has a left-handed swing tailor made for Fenway. If he can pop a few on the outside edge off the wall, he may be a keeper given the flexibility to play both corner infield positions.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 14:26:21 GMT -5
I don't doubt that Shaw is going to cool off at some point, but I probably am higher on him than most on the site. I think there is a real possibility he could be an above average 1B and solve the Sox problem there. And it would be a bonanza for the Sox if that happened. It is going to be very hard to find someone else to play 1B for the Sox exceptionally well. Shaw might. If he does the Sox can spend more resources fixing the pitching.
The reason I think this is that his minor league record is more impressive than he gets credit for and he has demonstrated good power and a good batting eye throughout. He had a rough start this year and it is on that basis that many people seem to doubt him, not noticing how well he hit once he got going.
He started with Lowell is 2011 out of Kent State and he had an OPS of .816 with 8 HRs in 216 ABs.
In 2012 he was fast-tracked. He began with Salem where he had a .957 OPS and 16 HRs in 359 ABs. He then was promoted to Portland where he had a .781 OPS and 3 HRs in 110 ABs.
He spent 2013 at Portland where he had a .736 OPS and 16HRs, but he tore up the Arizona Fall league with an OPS of 1.157 and 5 HRs in 61 ABs.
In 2014 at Portland he had a .954 OPS and 11 HRs in 177 ABs and then a .751 OPS and 10 HRs at Pawtucket in 318 ABs. I think he led the minor league system in HRs.
Those are pretty good numbers and they show that he made adjustments and got better as he progressed. He still seems to be doing that.
When you combine what appears to be very good hitting skills with very good defensive skills you have a very good player.
I may be wrong but I think more people will agree me on him by the end of the season.
And what if he turns out just to be average? That's all the Sox really need with the way the other players are developing. What we have seen recently is not as bad a team as it was earlier in the season. And Pedroia isn't playing now. With him in the lineup, it is an even better team.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 20, 2015 15:07:24 GMT -5
I don't doubt that Shaw is going to cool off at some point, but I probably am higher on him than most on the site. I think there is a real possibility he could be an above average 1B and solve the Sox problem there. And it would be a bonanza for the Sox if that happened. It is going to be very hard to find someone else to play 1B for the Sox exceptionally well. Shaw might. If he does the Sox can spend more resources fixing the pitching. The reason I think this is that his minor league record is more impressive than he gets credit for and he has demonstrated good power and a good batting eye throughout. He had a rough start this year and it is on that basis that many people seem to doubt him, not noticing how well he hit once he got going. He started with Lowell is 2011 out of Kent State and he had an OPS of .816 with 8 HRs in 216 ABs. In 2012 he was fast-tracked. He began with Salem where he had a .957 OPS and 16 HRs in 359 ABs. He then was promoted to Portland where he had a .781 OPS and 3 HRs in 110 ABs. He spent 2013 at Portland where he had a .736 OPS and 16HRs, but he tore up the Arizona Fall league with an OPS of 1.157 and 5 HRs in 61 ABs. In 2014 at Portland he had a .954 OPS and 11 HRs in 177 ABs and then a .751 OPS and 10 HRs at Pawtucket in 318 ABs. I think he led the minor league system in HRs. Those are pretty good numbers and they show that he made adjustments and got better as he progressed. He still seems to be doing that. When you combine what appears to be very good hitting skills with very good defensive skills you have a very good player. I may be wrong but I think more people will agree me on him by the end of the season. And what if he turns out just to be average? That's all the Sox really need with the way the other players are developing. What we have seen recently is not as bad a team as it was earlier in the season. And Pedroia isn't playing now. With him in the lineup, it is an even better team. Really nice pattern for a while of being below average (for a 1b) until he adjust to a league, then above average after that. But... the pattern is broken by his poor 2015 at AAA: .249 .318 .356 .674, omitted from your summary, and adding up to over a full year at AAA hitting .256 .319 .395 .715. This is the fly in the ointment.
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 20, 2015 15:33:21 GMT -5
I don't doubt that Shaw is going to cool off at some point, but I probably am higher on him than most on the site. I think there is a real possibility he could be an above average 1B and solve the Sox problem there. And it would be a bonanza for the Sox if that happened. It is going to be very hard to find someone else to play 1B for the Sox exceptionally well. Shaw might. If he does the Sox can spend more resources fixing the pitching. The reason I think this is that his minor league record is more impressive than he gets credit for and he has demonstrated good power and a good batting eye throughout. He had a rough start this year and it is on that basis that many people seem to doubt him, not noticing how well he hit once he got going. He started with Lowell is 2011 out of Kent State and he had an OPS of .816 with 8 HRs in 216 ABs. In 2012 he was fast-tracked. He began with Salem where he had a .957 OPS and 16 HRs in 359 ABs. He then was promoted to Portland where he had a .781 OPS and 3 HRs in 110 ABs. He spent 2013 at Portland where he had a .736 OPS and 16HRs, but he tore up the Arizona Fall league with an OPS of 1.157 and 5 HRs in 61 ABs. In 2014 at Portland he had a .954 OPS and 11 HRs in 177 ABs and then a .751 OPS and 10 HRs at Pawtucket in 318 ABs. I think he led the minor league system in HRs. Those are pretty good numbers and they show that he made adjustments and got better as he progressed. He still seems to be doing that. When you combine what appears to be very good hitting skills with very good defensive skills you have a very good player. I may be wrong but I think more people will agree me on him by the end of the season. And what if he turns out just to be average? That's all the Sox really need with the way the other players are developing. What we have seen recently is not as bad a team as it was earlier in the season. And Pedroia isn't playing now. With him in the lineup, it is an even better team. Really nice pattern for a while of being below average (for a 1b) until he adjust to a league, then above average after that. But... the pattern is broken by his poor 2015 at AAA: .249 .318 .356 .674, omitted from your summary, and adding up to over a full year at AAA hitting .256 .319 .395 .715. This is the fly in the ointment. What about his full 2015 line with MLB numbers added in. Seems that should be counted with the AAA line even though it is at a higher level. What does that make the year out to be? .270 or so plus doesn't it. Those numbers have to count for something on his 15 learning curve.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 15:47:29 GMT -5
I don't doubt that Shaw is going to cool off at some point, but I probably am higher on him than most on the site. I think there is a real possibility he could be an above average 1B and solve the Sox problem there. And it would be a bonanza for the Sox if that happened. It is going to be very hard to find someone else to play 1B for the Sox exceptionally well. Shaw might. If he does the Sox can spend more resources fixing the pitching. The reason I think this is that his minor league record is more impressive than he gets credit for and he has demonstrated good power and a good batting eye throughout. He had a rough start this year and it is on that basis that many people seem to doubt him, not noticing how well he hit once he got going. He started with Lowell is 2011 out of Kent State and he had an OPS of .816 with 8 HRs in 216 ABs. In 2012 he was fast-tracked. He began with Salem where he had a .957 OPS and 16 HRs in 359 ABs. He then was promoted to Portland where he had a .781 OPS and 3 HRs in 110 ABs. He spent 2013 at Portland where he had a .736 OPS and 16HRs, but he tore up the Arizona Fall league with an OPS of 1.157 and 5 HRs in 61 ABs. In 2014 at Portland he had a .954 OPS and 11 HRs in 177 ABs and then a .751 OPS and 10 HRs at Pawtucket in 318 ABs. I think he led the minor league system in HRs. Those are pretty good numbers and they show that he made adjustments and got better as he progressed. He still seems to be doing that. When you combine what appears to be very good hitting skills with very good defensive skills you have a very good player. I may be wrong but I think more people will agree me on him by the end of the season. And what if he turns out just to be average? That's all the Sox really need with the way the other players are developing. What we have seen recently is not as bad a team as it was earlier in the season. And Pedroia isn't playing now. With him in the lineup, it is an even better team. Really nice pattern for a while of being below average (for a 1b) until he adjust to a league, then above average after that. But... the pattern is broken by his poor 2015 at AAA: .249 .318 .356 .674, omitted from your summary, and adding up to over a full year at AAA hitting .256 .319 .395 .715. This is the fly in the ointment. I thought someone else pointed out that he basically had two seasons at Pawtucket this year. He started out poorly but then started hitting very well, above .300 for a period of time after his first call-up, until he was called up this time. I don't have the breakdown, but he followed the same pattern as he has all along, getting better, in this case significantly better. And he carried that to Boston. One of the radio broadcasters asked what happened and he said "things just suddenly clicked," and he has been hitting well every since.
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Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2015 16:00:55 GMT -5
Its not just prospects in the MLB Top 100 (typically grade 50 or higher, 55 this year) or even top 40 (grade 60) that are of interest. Consider that even decent bench grade free agent might be 3-5M, and regular players in the 5-6M per WAR range, and consider that even when you do pay 5-6M per (recent past history/projected WAR) that player doesn't always put up the WAR you paid for (please help me here, who comes to mind on this? its on the tip on my tongue) Right now, our board has T.Shaw at grade 3, meaning an up and down, AAA depth guy with minimal value, with an upside of bench player. Do we have him underrated? could he really be a 2nd div starter, ie, WAR 2. If so, that would save us $10M in the free agent market, making money available for that 1 SP that everyone has been pining for. For a 9th round pick, 110K bonus, he has paid dividends.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 20, 2015 16:06:37 GMT -5
I haven't really been following this thread closely, (I plan on reading through it at some point), but this team has a -3.1 fWAR at 1B, 3B, and LF combined. Travis Shaw is a player who seems to be able to play all three of those positions at least adequately. Even if he starts 2016 in the minors this is a good guy to have in the system.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2015 16:09:24 GMT -5
Really nice pattern for a while of being below average (for a 1b) until he adjust to a league, then above average after that. But... the pattern is broken by his poor 2015 at AAA: .249 .318 .356 .674, omitted from your summary, and adding up to over a full year at AAA hitting .256 .319 .395 .715. This is the fly in the ointment. What about his full 2015 line with MLB numbers added in. Seems that should be counted with the AAA line even though it is at a higher level. What does that make the year out to be? .270 or so plus doesn't it. Those numbers have to count for something on his 15 learning curve. jimoh nailed it; the "slow to adjust to level" hypothesis was wrecked by his starting this year at Pawtucket terribly, then getting red hot, them going back into an awful funk. I put forth the better hypothesis a day or two ago: just a streaky hitter. Going into last night, according to Clay Davenport's translations, his combined AAA and MLB seasons work out to a .261 TAv (.263 age-adjusted), which is to say, MLB average. (Recently Clay's daily update is happening around 6 PM!) Over his entire pro career, he's had a .274 Age-Adjusted TAv. Since he's hit so much better in MLB than AAA this year, his only doing .263 this year can't be because he was overmatched in AAA; it has to be because he's spent an unusually large amount of time slumping rather than hot. And it's worth noting that he went from hot to cold when he got sent down at one point, and maybe that was what shifted the balance. But of course the hot / cold balance keeps shifting to the better as long as he stays hot, and as he does so the .263 will move in the direction of that .274. Now, .274 would rank 20th among MLB 1B. It's acceptable, and he could start there for somebody, but he'd be a guy you'd be looking to upgrade. Realize it's a 20th ranking with very little upside, because of his age. At 3B, though, .274 would rank 13th. That's a guy who's a perfect fit for many teams; a 2.0 - 2.5 WAR player making league minimum.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 20, 2015 16:21:29 GMT -5
Really nice pattern for a while of being below average (for a 1b) until he adjust to a league, then above average after that. But... the pattern is broken by his poor 2015 at AAA: .249 .318 .356 .674, omitted from your summary, and adding up to over a full year at AAA hitting .256 .319 .395 .715. This is the fly in the ointment. I thought someone else pointed out that he basically had two seasons at Pawtucket this year. He started out poorly but then started hitting very well, above .300 for a period of time after his first call-up, until he was called up this time. I don't have the breakdown, but he followed the same pattern as he has all along, getting better, in this case significantly better. And he carried that to Boston. One of the radio broadcasters asked what happened and he said "things just suddenly clicked," and he has been hitting well every since. These numbers are not very subtle, since I'm just typing his OPS, and some one could break it down better, but his OPS for April May June and July in AAA were .568, .738, .769 (hitting .318, but slugging only .394 in June), .569 (15 games only in July). So his "good months" were .738 and .769. At 1b.
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Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2015 16:22:29 GMT -5
On H Ramirez, some one said that all Redsox LF get a negative dWAR because of the configuration of Fenway, just not as bad as -2.3
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2015 16:27:38 GMT -5
On H Ramirez, some one said that all Redsox LF get a negative dWAR because of the configuration of Fenway, just not as bad as -2.3 Carl Yastrzemski didn't in his prime anyway.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 16:38:33 GMT -5
The Red Sox team OPS is .736, 8th highest in MLB. The highest is Toronto at .768. The lowest - and this is fascinating - are the Mets at .674. Of course the Mets have the 3rd lowest team ERA at 3.22, which explains why they are where they are. The Sox ERA of 4.62 is 28th, which explains a lot about where they are.
In any case, a player who can hit in the mid .700 OPS range (where both Bogaerts and Betts are now) is doing OK and probably is going to have a job.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 20, 2015 16:43:49 GMT -5
On H Ramirez, some one said that all Redsox LF get a negative dWAR because of the configuration of Fenway, just not as bad as -2.3 There could be a bias there, but UZR/DRS do at least try to adjust for park.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2015 16:45:30 GMT -5
I thought someone else pointed out that he basically had two seasons at Pawtucket this year. He started out poorly but then started hitting very well, above .300 for a period of time after his first call-up, until he was called up this time. I don't have the breakdown, but he followed the same pattern as he has all along, getting better, in this case significantly better. And he carried that to Boston. One of the radio broadcasters asked what happened and he said "things just suddenly clicked," and he has been hitting well every since. These numbers are not very subtle, since I'm just typing his OPS, and some one could break it down better, but his OPS for April May June and July in AAA were .568, .738, .769 (hitting .318, but slugging only .394 in June), .569 (15 games only in July). So his "good months" were .738 and .769. At 1b. The actual breakdown is on the previous page of this thread.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 20, 2015 18:05:18 GMT -5
If he can keep it going for another week-10 days it's one of the great starts in RS history. And he looked so good while doing it (whatever his final '15 stat line turns out to be).
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