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Red Sox Sign OF Masataka Yoshida
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 19, 2023 8:47:00 GMT -5
Yoshida DH'd exactly 2/3 of the time each of his last two years with Orix.
He is currently -15 runs per 150 games in LF. Historically, they don't let you play a position regularly if you go below -10.
He's the DH next year, and he should be a very good one. From a scouting POV, he wowed everybody. You can play him in LF once in a while on the road when you have a GB pitcher on the mound. (The only thing he does average is come in on the ball, and he really struggled with the wall in Fenway.)
Hmm ...
Yoshida had never played 7 straight days in his life. He had the WBC under his belt at seasons start, and as of May 30 he had played 8, 7, and 8 games in a row, but nothing more strenuous.
He played 8 games in 8 days from May 30 to June 6 and had a 1.219 OPS in them. That included 3 games as a DH; he played LF two days in a row just once.
At that point he had 234 PA and had slashed .319 / .393 / .502.
They kept him in the lineup for 5 more days, all in LF (for six days in a row there), then used him as a PH, and again as a LF. He had a .337 OPS in this stretch.
And starting with that stretch he had 310 PA and hit .262 / .297 / .405.
Eyeballs matter. We didn't see a league figure out how to pitch him. We saw first a guy with extraordinary bat-to-ball skills and surprising pop, and then a guy who could simply not execute his mechanics.
The performance split is so large that it demands an explanation. And we have it ... and I haven't even mentioned the travel and jet lag.
He was still good for a while after that though: from 6/7 to 7/26 he hit .312/.353/.496, a 127 wRC+. His slump didn't really start until the end of July.
It's interesting that the BB rate had already dropped a lot in June/July though - already down to 3.3% in that stretch. His K rate was still low, at 13%, and it was still a very respectable 14.6% in August. Only in September has it ballooned to 29%. I'm a dummy about this stuff, but it kind of seems like he made an adjustment to be more aggressive, pitchers responded by giving him less to hit, and for whatever reason he's been unable to go back to the kind of patient hitter with good strike zone management he's been throughout his whole professional career.
Not only that but he has had days off since then and is still not producing. Is he still exhausted from that stretch of games in June?
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 19, 2023 8:53:43 GMT -5
Echoing a lot of thoughts here - he's demonstrated enough talent at the plate in his first season that there's ample cause to have some optimism he can be more consistent his second full year in MLB. But he's in a weird spot where he shouldn't be full time LF defensively, and he hasn't hit so effectively he should be a full time DH. This year when there was a lefty on the mound Casas was typically the chosen lefty to sit for Refnsyder (or whatever righty) and Yoshida would stay in the lineup. Next year that needs to reverse itself. It's not ideal given the money involved for Yoshida to basically become a platoon LF/DH hybrid, but at this point the money is a sunk cost. He's still shown enough that if you use him in an optimal role that he can help you win games. His wRC+ vs lefties this year is 101 so I disagree he "needs" to be strictly platooned for. I would pick and choose the spots to play him vs lefties though and as you point out not sit Casas as much. I think if he DHs at least 50% of his games next year he should hit better by staying more fresh. This year so far he's played 79 games in LF and 45 as DH, ideally that gets flipped. At this point I don't see Yoshida's contract providing surplus value over the course of it, heck it might not even break even. If I had to bet I'd say they probably come out behind in the $ to WAR calculations over the course of the five year deal. That being said I do think his bat is good enough that we won't be sitting here looking at him and the contract as a complete negative and I'm fine with having him around as the DH for the next couple season at least. By year 4 and 5 I don't know what we'll be getting from him, possibly not much. That being said while $18M obviously isn't chump change I also don't think it's going to be that big a detriment to the Sox payroll.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 19, 2023 9:11:12 GMT -5
Yoshida DH'd exactly 2/3 of the time each of his last two years with Orix.
He is currently -15 runs per 150 games in LF. Historically, they don't let you play a position regularly if you go below -10.
He's the DH next year, and he should be a very good one. From a scouting POV, he wowed everybody. You can play him in LF once in a while on the road when you have a GB pitcher on the mound. (The only thing he does average is come in on the ball, and he really struggled with the wall in Fenway.)
Hmm ...
Yoshida had never played 7 straight days in his life. He had the WBC under his belt at seasons start, and as of May 30 he had played 8, 7, and 8 games in a row, but nothing more strenuous.
He played 8 games in 8 days from May 30 to June 6 and had a 1.219 OPS in them. That included 3 games as a DH; he played LF two days in a row just once.
At that point he had 234 PA and had slashed .319 / .393 / .502.
They kept him in the lineup for 5 more days, all in LF (for six days in a row there), then used him as a PH, and again as a LF. He had a .337 OPS in this stretch.
And starting with that stretch he had 310 PA and hit .262 / .297 / .405.
Eyeballs matter. We didn't see a league figure out how to pitch him. We saw first a guy with extraordinary bat-to-ball skills and surprising pop, and then a guy who could simply not execute his mechanics.
The performance split is so large that it demands an explanation. And we have it ... and I haven't even mentioned the travel and jet lag.
He was still good for a while after that though: from 6/7 to 7/26 he hit .312/.353/.496, a 127 wRC+. His slump didn't really start until the end of July.
It's interesting that the BB rate had already dropped a lot in June/July though - already down to 3.3% in that stretch. His K rate was still low, at 13%, and it was still a very respectable 14.6% in August. Only in September has it ballooned to 29%. I'm a dummy about this stuff, but it kind of seems like he made an adjustment to be more aggressive, pitchers responded by giving him less to hit, and for whatever reason he's been unable to go back to the kind of patient hitter with good strike zone management he's been throughout his whole professional career.
Rolling xwOBA: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=statcast-r-histograms-mlbChunks looking at it this way: Mid-April - Mid-May: Monster Mid-May - Mid-July: Very good hitter going through normal peaks and valleys Mid-July - Late-August: Very bad Late-August - Early-September (8/24 - 9/5): Pretty good again! Rest of September: Bad again
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Post by incandenza on Sept 19, 2023 9:34:06 GMT -5
He was still good for a while after that though: from 6/7 to 7/26 he hit .312/.353/.496, a 127 wRC+. His slump didn't really start until the end of July.
It's interesting that the BB rate had already dropped a lot in June/July though - already down to 3.3% in that stretch. His K rate was still low, at 13%, and it was still a very respectable 14.6% in August. Only in September has it ballooned to 29%. I'm a dummy about this stuff, but it kind of seems like he made an adjustment to be more aggressive, pitchers responded by giving him less to hit, and for whatever reason he's been unable to go back to the kind of patient hitter with good strike zone management he's been throughout his whole professional career.
Rolling xwOBA: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=statcast-r-histograms-mlbChunks looking at it this way: Mid-April - Mid-May: Monster Mid-May - Mid-July: Very good hitter going through normal peaks and valleys Mid-July - Late-August: Very bad Late-August - Early-September (8/24 - 9/5): Pretty good again! Rest of September: Bad again Not to cut things too fine here, but I really would extend that "Very good hitter going through normal peaks and valleys" through late July. From the all-star break to 7/29 he had a 123 wRC+.
8/24-9/5 he did indeed have a nice run - 136 wRC+, normal BABIP (.310), and he was even walking again (7.5%). These games were mostly against HOU, TB, and LAD, too. His last 8 games have been bad again, and he's had several days off (partly because of rainouts).
So maybe we're really just talking about a 21-game slump 7/30-8/23 and then an 8-game (and counting?) slump since 9/6. That makes things seem a little less dire. Not that we can overlook that the overall season line is what it is...
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 19, 2023 10:01:57 GMT -5
Not to cut things too fine here, but I really would extend that "Very good hitter going through normal peaks and valleys" through late July. From the all-star break to 7/29 he had a 123 wRC+.
8/24-9/5 he did indeed have a nice run - 136 wRC+, normal BABIP (.310), and he was even walking again (7.5%). These games were mostly against HOU, TB, and LAD, too. His last 8 games have been bad again, and he's had several days off (partly because of rainouts).
So maybe we're really just talking about a 21-game slump 7/30-8/23 and then an 8-game (and counting?) slump since 9/6. That makes things seem a little less dire. Not that we can overlook that the overall season line is what it is...
We're cutting things really fine here but from 7/18 to 8/1 he had an ~.250 xwOBA in that stretch (78 wRC+), so I'd push back that he was hitting well in that stretch. He bounced back a little over the next week and was basically an average hitter 8/1 to 8/8, but then his worst stretch was from 8/8-8/24 where he was truly abysmal (34 wRC+, ~.200 xwOBA).
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Post by incandenza on Sept 19, 2023 10:11:24 GMT -5
Not to cut things too fine here, but I really would extend that "Very good hitter going through normal peaks and valleys" through late July. From the all-star break to 7/29 he had a 123 wRC+.
8/24-9/5 he did indeed have a nice run - 136 wRC+, normal BABIP (.310), and he was even walking again (7.5%). These games were mostly against HOU, TB, and LAD, too. His last 8 games have been bad again, and he's had several days off (partly because of rainouts).
So maybe we're really just talking about a 21-game slump 7/30-8/23 and then an 8-game (and counting?) slump since 9/6. That makes things seem a little less dire. Not that we can overlook that the overall season line is what it is...
We're cutting things really fine here but from 7/18 to 8/1 he had an ~.250 xwOBA in that stretch (78 wRC+), so I'd push back that he was hitting well in that stretch. He bounced back a little over the next week and was basically an average hitter 8/1 to 8/8, but then his worst stretch was from 8/8-8/24 where he was truly abysmal (34 wRC+, ~.200 xwOBA). Well, but 7/18-7/25 he had a 183 wRC+ with a .250 ISO and 11.5% K rate.
How about a compromise: he began sucking at 11:45am on July 26th?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 19, 2023 10:24:18 GMT -5
I recall seeing a piece with Cora saying Yoshida has to come in next year in better physical shape. I only skimmed it, so that may not be completely accurate of his sentiments. Anyone else see it?
ADDED: Found it:
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 19, 2023 11:38:56 GMT -5
Perhaps Suzuki's 2022 season and improvements for 2023 will be an indicator of Yoshida's 2nd year in the MLB. 2022 Suzuki 1st half 126 wRC+ 2nd half 108, somewhat similar to what we saw from Yoshida this year. 2023 105 wRC+ 1st half and a 138 2nd half for Suzuki this year, let's hope Yoshida's year two is similar to Suzuki in that regard.
Side note, how much better off would the Sox be right now if they'd had signed Suzuki instead of Yoshida? He's such a better fit for the roster than Yoshida and makes 1 million less a year.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 19, 2023 14:43:21 GMT -5
I recall seeing a piece with Cora saying Yoshida has to come in next year in better physical shape. I only skimmed it, so that may not be completely accurate of his sentiments. Anyone else see it? ADDED: Found it: I don't read that as Cora reaming him out and telling him to get his head out of an anatomical place where it shouldn't be like he apparently did with Dugo. I read it as Cora explaining to him that now that he understands the rigors of the schedule, the competition and the travel he should prepare accondingly and that means getting into the best physical condition of his life.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 19, 2023 15:23:21 GMT -5
I don't read that as Cora reaming him out and telling him to get his head out of an anatomical place where it shouldn't be like he apparently did with Dugo. I read it as Cora explaining to him that now that he understands the rigors of the schedule, the competition and the travel he should prepare accondingly and that means getting into the best physical condition of his life. It's not even spring training and we're already getting BSOHL references...gonna be a long off-season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 19, 2023 17:23:08 GMT -5
Yoshida accumulated over one BR WAR before half the season was done and then... The concern about physical condition is likely well-placed. Posters pointed out the surprising amount of time in left field and that's an issue also. The roster has to be reworked given the players the team brought up and the success they've had. More time at DH is in store, again as others have said. That and the physical prep. He's not in Japan anymore with its shorter season.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2023 19:53:54 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say.
Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition.
But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too.
The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 25, 2023 20:15:13 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say. Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition. But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too. The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team. Valdez can’t hit lefties at all and is an even worse defensive player than Yoshida. The only reason he’s outpacing Yoshida in oWAR is because b-ref puts the position adjustment into the oWAR calculation. I’m fairly confident that Yoshida is a better player than Valdez. Since they don’t give out a trophy for winning the $/WAR World Series, I’m fine keeping him around. And if he has a repeat of this year, I still don’t think they’ll have trouble finding a taker if they eat a bit of money. I get the point you’re making, Valdez being on the league minimum alone gives him a much better chance of being a positive-value contract. I would never pick him for the last spot on the roster over Yoshida, but he would probably have more trade value in general.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2023 20:39:13 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say. Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition. But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too. The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team. I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida.
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 26, 2023 21:58:23 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say. Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition. But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too. The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team. I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida. I agree that Yoshida is currently a more complete hitter and has a much better chance to be a well above average player next year, but are you confusing Valdez with someone else? He is definitely not someone I would consider undisciplined or unwilling to take a walk. If Valdez can learn to either field 2b, or hit LHP, at a non-awful level, he'll have a role on an MLB team for a number of years
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 26, 2023 22:38:00 GMT -5
I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida. I agree that Yoshida is currently a more complete hitter and has a much better chance to be a well above average player next year, but are you confusing Valdez with someone else? He is definitely not someone I would consider undisciplined or unwilling to take a walk. If Valdez can learn to either field 2b, or hit LHP, at a non-awful level, he'll have a role on an MLB team for a number of years If Enmanuel can tighten up the D (and he's shown flashes lately), he has the makings of a solid strong-side platoon at 2B, which would be good value for money. Maybe he platoons with Ceddy Ballgame, who plays CF/RF some of the time vs. RHP. Reyes and Urias are also RHH. (As it stands, I think Reyes gets the first chance to win a full-time job outright although anything could happen once a new GM is in place.)
Either way, I think it's not exactly apples to apples to compare the rookie seasons of Valdez, a 24-yo who's finding his footing at the big league level, and Yoshida, who recently turned 30 and was THE MAN in Japan since he was Valdez's age.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 23:25:53 GMT -5
I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida. I agree that Yoshida is currently a more complete hitter and has a much better chance to be a well above average player next year, but are you confusing Valdez with someone else? He is definitely not someone I would consider undisciplined or unwilling to take a walk. If Valdez can learn to either field 2b, or hit LHP, at a non-awful level, he'll have a role on an MLB team for a number of years Fair. He has only 7 walks in 130 plus plate appearances, but has 60 plus walks the past 2 years in the minors and was average in that respect previously. So his real issue is defense plus cam he hit lefties? But otherwise he is intriguing, but the defense was bad enough to earn him a ticket back to AAA despite the revolving door at 2b since Pedroia left.
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Post by asm19 on Sept 28, 2023 23:49:41 GMT -5
From the Joon Lee ESPN article earlier this summer that was shared earlier in the thread:
“Despite that [initial success], Yoshida admits the transition off the field is weighing on him. His wife, Yurika, and their two daughters -- a 2-year-old and a 1-year-old -- have not yet visited him in the United States”
For all the talk of more travel/time zones/longer schedule compared to Japan… was wondering about the simple fact that Yoshida hasn’t seen his family in 6 months? Perhaps the stress related to that is a factor to his late season struggles? Unclear if his family ever got a chance to visit. I remember during the all star break wondering if he might have a chance to go to Japan and then meet up with the team in Oakland, but again, not sure what happened on his end in regard to seeing his family and hopefully he gets to see them soon if he hasn’t yet.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 30, 2023 4:24:49 GMT -5
From the Joon Lee ESPN article earlier this summer that was shared earlier in the thread: “Despite that [initial success], Yoshida admits the transition off the field is weighing on him. His wife, Yurika, and their two daughters -- a 2-year-old and a 1-year-old -- have not yet visited him in the United States” For all the talk of more travel/time zones/longer schedule compared to Japan… was wondering about the simple fact that Yoshida hasn’t seen his family in 6 months? Perhaps the stress related to that is a factor to his late season struggles? Unclear if his family ever got a chance to visit. I remember during the all star break wondering if he might have a chance to go to Japan and then meet up with the team in Oakland, but again, not sure what happened on his end in regard to seeing his family and hopefully he gets to see them soon if he hasn’t yet. I feel bad for the guy. Obviously everyone is different and has different stuff going on in their lives, but Daisuke Matsuzaka moved his family to Brookline, and lives there now, despite having returned to Japan to finish his career. Dice-K, according to the an article I read back in May, offered to talk with Yoshida and give him advice, but Yoshida never took him up on that.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 30, 2023 7:08:32 GMT -5
From all I've read about him, it seems to me like Yoshida is a student of the game who spends countless hours working on his craft. I'm very optimistic that with a normal off season and a normal ST, his family situation taken care of and one year of MLB experience under his belt, he'll rake...as a matter of fact, I'm willing to bet he'll win a batting title.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2023 22:16:00 GMT -5
I HAVE CRACKED IT!
Here are his month-by-month xwOBA and wOBA. Because I'm insane, each "month" is actually 31 days, which just means that April 30 is in the the May bucket and May 31 is in June (and March is in April and October in September, 1 game each).
.356 / .357 April .354 / .399 May .354 / .333 June .354 / .464 July 1 to 18
.251 / .238 July 19 to 31 .268 / .277 August .263 / .265 September
What the holy hell happened on July 19?
That was the last day of the Cubs / A's road trip. And after 8 days back home they went out again for a long West coast trip.
This is not being tired, in a way that a couple of good night's sleep will refresh you. It's the brain telling the body to go into a fatigue state in order to reduce the body's energy use. It's hitting the wall and sticking there.
Realize that this was a worst case scenario for a "rookie" coming from Japan -- first he's at 100% helping Japan win the WBC when his teammates are all moving there in careful stages, and then his team has a schedule that can only be described as abusive.
Before he hit that wall, he was .355 / .380 in .358 PA. That put him 46th and 14th respectively among 198 players with 250+ PA. I think a solid percentage of his karma is for real -- his bat control is so good that he seems to have a legit "hit 'em where they ain't" skill. I trust that he's getting rested under medical attention and will then work very hard to increase his stamina.
**
I speak from experience here, and with some expertise (my sleep doctor wants me to present my history as a case study for his students, for instance). Chronic lack of sleep will get you into this state. Worrying that you need to get things done, that require energy ... makes you sleep less well. Once it starts, it can be a vicious negative feedback loop.
I'm in a fatigue state right now -- I can get out to shop for groceries (sometimes a day or two later than planned), but seeing a movie in a theater just sounds exhausting. And all I have that is stressing me is a huge to-do list and an accompanying ungodly mess of papers, e.g., one of them has new bank password, but where exactly is that? And no one is paying me $15M to get any of that done.
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hank
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Post by hank on Oct 6, 2023 12:25:58 GMT -5
Who has more value in a trade- Yoshida or Verdugo?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 6, 2023 12:52:30 GMT -5
Who has more value in a trade- Yoshida or Verdugo? Easily Verdugo. He's an underpaid asset, albeit one that comes with only a single year of control. At this point, Yoshida is probably a negative asset - I don't think you could give him away without eating some money or attaching a prospect given how he finished the year. And I don't think Boston will be willing to do that given the positives he showed in the first half.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 6, 2023 12:54:43 GMT -5
Who has more value in a trade- Yoshida or Verdugo? Easily Verdugo. He's an underpaid asset, albeit one that comes with only a single year of control. At this point, Yoshida is probably a negative asset - I don't think you could give him away without eating some money or attaching a prospect given how he finished the year. And I don't think Boston will be willing to do that given the positives he showed in the first half. Verdugo's projected 2024 arbitration at $9.2M www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,840
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 7, 2023 15:09:55 GMT -5
I HAVE CRACKED IT!
Here are his month-by-month xwOBA and wOBA. Because I'm insane, each "month" is actually 31 days, which just means that April 30 is in the the May bucket and May 31 is in June (and March is in April and October in September, 1 game each).
.356 / .357 April .354 / .399 May .354 / .333 June .354 / .464 July 1 to 18
.251 / .238 July 19 to 31 .268 / .277 August .263 / .265 September
What the holy hell happened on July 19?
That was the last day of the Cubs / A's road trip. And after 8 days back home they went out again for a long West coast trip.
This is not being tired, in a way that a couple of good night's sleep will refresh you. It's the brain telling the body to go into a fatigue state in order to reduce the body's energy use. It's hitting the wall and sticking there.
Realize that this was a worst case scenario for a "rookie" coming from Japan -- first he's at 100% helping Japan win the WBC when his teammates are all moving there in careful stages, and then his team has a schedule that can only be described as abusive.
Before he hit that wall, he was .355 / .380 in .358 PA. That put him 46th and 14th respectively among 198 players with 250+ PA. I think a solid percentage of his karma is for real -- his bat control is so good that he seems to have a legit "hit 'em where they ain't" skill. I trust that he's getting rested under medical attention and will then work very hard to increase his stamina.
**
I speak from experience here, and with some expertise (my sleep doctor wants me to present my history as a case study for his students, for instance). Chronic lack of sleep will get you into this state. Worrying that you need to get things done, that require energy ... makes you sleep less well. Once it starts, it can be a vicious negative feedback loop.
I'm in a fatigue state right now -- I can get out to shop for groceries (sometimes a day or two later than planned), but seeing a movie in a theater just sounds exhausting. And all I have that is stressing me is a huge to-do list and an accompanying ungodly mess of papers, e.g., one of them has new bank password, but where exactly is that? And no one is paying me $15M to get any of that done.
YOU HAVEN'T CRACKED ANYTHING! You cite July 19, the last game of the Chi/Oak road trip, as a truning point. He actually performed quite well in the next six games. In fact, he raked: .350/.409/.550 for a .959 OPS. The next five games, from July 26 to 31 when he went 0-18, are skewing your analysis of the July 19 to 31 period. After that horrendous hitless stretch, he went .348/.333/.478 for an .812 OPS in six games from Aug. 1 to 7. That stretch included the last two games of the road trip and then four at Fenway. It's also worth noting that the July 19 date you claim was the start of his exhaustion was less than a week after he had four days off for the AS break. Look, it's reasonable to suspect that the grind of MLB competition and travel may have caused Yoshi to wear down. But we don't even know that for sure. There are other possibilities. He could have had an undisclosed injury. He has spoken about how much he missed his family. At some point, he could have gotten some worrisome news from back home - perhaps an illness or injury, heaven forbid, that one of his kids or his wife suffered and that weighed on him. But it's pointless to look at where a player's slump began and attribute it to the start or finish of a road trip. These guys have always just started or finished a road trip. That's what they do from April to September. But your example is even more egregiously flawed because the two hot stretches and the brutal 0-18 stretch all included home games and road games. It's not like he got off a plane, passed out from exhaustion and needed a week to recover. And I don't even know what to say about the validity of using your own stamina and ability to get to a grocery store or movie theater as a comparison point for a professional athlete's stamina. You are much older and less physically fit than Masataka Yoshida. That's not a jab at your age or condition, Eric, so don't take it personally. I've slipped well into middle age and I did so with a can of Sam Adams in my hand and a bowl of ice cream on my lap. I'm no specimen, which is why I would never compare myself to an athlete who's my junior by a couple of decades.
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