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Rest of the Offseason
cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2022 1:51:45 GMT -5
Love it given the available options. Only issue is that he's a LHH, but honestly I'm to the point were I don't really care anymore. Just give me a guy with a glove and some semblance of ceiling with the bat. He also had a 15% K rate and 11% BB rate last year, 18% K and 10% BB for his career. If he sucks, worst case Refsnyder gets more playing time. Totally forgot about Kepler. I think this is a good match. Excellent defense and running skills w/ a decent bat if he can alter some things. Makes $8 mil this year, $10 mil option next year. Most importantly, would come at relatively reasonable trade cost — maybe just Houck straight up? That trade is totally going to happen
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 7:07:19 GMT -5
I'd take Kepler if the sox are certain Verdugo can't play a good RF since as I've said I don't want Yoshida to be a full time DH.
Perhaps Bloom says screw it if he doesn't like any of the MI options left and moves Hernandez to 2nd story to SS Verdugo to CF trades for Kepler and spends the rest of his available money on two starters. Doubt that happens but quite honestly I have no predictions on what direction they're going to take from here on out this off-season. For better or worse they've basically made 0 moves I could have predicted.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 9, 2022 10:45:15 GMT -5
Totally forgot about Kepler. I think this is a good match. Excellent defense and running skills w/ a decent bat if he can alter some things. Makes $8 mil this year, $10 mil option next year. Most importantly, would come at relatively reasonable trade cost — maybe just Houck straight up? That trade is totally going to happen Can we safely throw out 2019 power numbers now? I think it's well documented that those balls were insanely juiced and aren't coming back. If you're trading for a Kepler, don't expect anything close to 36 hr again
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 10:52:19 GMT -5
Twins might want Hosmer in that deal, doesn't look like they have anyone 1B or DH.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2022 10:58:11 GMT -5
That trade is totally going to happen Can we safely throw out 2019 power numbers now? I think it's well documented that those balls were insanely juiced and aren't coming back. If you're trading for a Kepler, don't expect anything close to 36 hr again For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 11:14:22 GMT -5
Can we safely throw out 2019 power numbers now? I think it's well documented that those balls were insanely juiced and aren't coming back. If you're trading for a Kepler, don't expect anything close to 36 hr again For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though This is where I'm at as well. I think the name of the game for the 2023 Red Sox is going to have to be run prevention and a good defender in Fenway is a key to that. He doesn't fit my preference of high OBP low K% for the lineup but they could use his glove out there in RF. If the price is right I'm on board for getting Kepler.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 9, 2022 11:28:22 GMT -5
Can we safely throw out 2019 power numbers now? I think it's well documented that those balls were insanely juiced and aren't coming back. If you're trading for a Kepler, don't expect anything close to 36 hr again For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though Fair, but is plus defensive outfielding worth 5 controllable years of Tanner Houck?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 9, 2022 11:30:32 GMT -5
Genuine question: If the Sox make some combination of two of the potential moves that have been thrown around - Swanson/Correa/Reynolds/Murphy/Senga/Eovaldi - does anyone disagree that they'd be a clearly a better team on paper than either of the last two teams? I'm not necessarily saying they'd outperform the 2021 Red Sox, but my stance has always been that they overperformed their true talent level in 2021 and underperformed in 2022. There is no talent level high enough to be free from variance so not saying any one move makes them guaranteed title favorites, but one of the most interesting aspects of all this angst is that there is still a very realistic scenario in which this team is a good deal more talented than the last.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 11:37:04 GMT -5
Genuine question: If the Sox make some combination of two of the potential moves that have been thrown around - Swanson/Correa/Reynolds/Murphy/Senga/Eovaldi - does anyone disagree that they'd be a clearly a better team on paper than either of the last two teams? I'm not necessarily saying they'd outperform the 2021 Red Sox, but my stance has always been that they overperformed their true talent level in 2021 and underperformed in 2022. There is no talent level high enough to be free from variance so not saying any one move makes them guaranteed title favorites, but one of the most interesting aspects of all this angst is that there is still a very realistic scenario in which this team is a good deal more talented than the last. There is a wide range in those combinations.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 11:37:41 GMT -5
For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though Fair, but is plus defensive outfielding worth 5 controllable years of Tanner Houck? Fair point, is 1 year of Kepler @ 8.5M with an option for a 2nd year @10m worth 5 years of Houck? I'm not sure what the answer to that is. Let's say Kepler is a 2WAR player which is around what he's been other than his 2019 outlier year which would be worth picking up the option. $18.5M for 4WAR over 2 years vs Houck for 5 years at conservatively 6 WAR for I don't know 10-15ishM over those 5 years? (I don't know if my $ numbers are close, I'm just spitballing here) Houck's hard to really pinpoint though, I could see him sticking around a 1-1.5 WAR multi inning reliever and I could see him figuring something out as a starter that allows him to better handle LHH and turn into a 2-3WAR mid rotation type of arm. Depends how the Sox and Twins view Houck I guess.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 9, 2022 11:39:43 GMT -5
Genuine question: If the Sox make some combination of two of the potential moves that have been thrown around - Swanson/Correa/Reynolds/Murphy/Senga/Eovaldi - does anyone disagree that they'd be a clearly a better team on paper than either of the last two teams? I'm not necessarily saying they'd outperform the 2021 Red Sox, but my stance has always been that they overperformed their true talent level in 2021 and underperformed in 2022. There is no talent level high enough to be free from variance so not saying any one move makes them guaranteed title favorites, but one of the most interesting aspects of all this angst is that there is still a very realistic scenario in which this team is a good deal more talented than the last. There is a wide range in those combinations. Duh, but my point is that any combination of that ilk is enough to improve this team.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 9, 2022 11:44:01 GMT -5
Genuine question: If the Sox make some combination of two of the potential moves that have been thrown around - Swanson/Correa/Reynolds/Murphy/Senga/Eovaldi - does anyone disagree that they'd be a clearly a better team on paper than either of the last two teams? I'm not necessarily saying they'd outperform the 2021 Red Sox, but my stance has always been that they overperformed their true talent level in 2021 and underperformed in 2022. There is no talent level high enough to be free from variance so not saying any one move makes them guaranteed title favorites, but one of the most interesting aspects of all this angst is that there is still a very realistic scenario in which this team is a good deal more talented than the last. I think there is a big range of outcomes, but if they get one of the those hitters and one of those pitchers, yes I could see them competing, and with some luck being one of the better teams in the AL. If they don't add one of those hitters the lineup will be pretty bad though.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 9, 2022 11:44:58 GMT -5
Can we safely throw out 2019 power numbers now? I think it's well documented that those balls were insanely juiced and aren't coming back. If you're trading for a Kepler, don't expect anything close to 36 hr again For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though Yes, never expect him to hit 30 homers again. My hope is that he’d pop 20 hrs and have an OPS around .750-.775
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2022 11:47:46 GMT -5
For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though Fair, but is plus defensive outfielding worth 5 controllable years of Tanner Houck? Depends if you think Houck is a starter or a reliever imo If they still believe he’s a starter then don’t do it.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 9, 2022 11:50:30 GMT -5
For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though Fair, but is plus defensive outfielding worth 5 controllable years of Tanner Houck? No shot IMO. If Houck finds his 2021 stuff, starter or reliever he’s a weapon. I think something like Crawford and one or two of Abreu/Paulino/Bonaci would be fine for Kepler, who is on his walk year, has posted two below league average slashes in a row, and suddenly forgot how to hit the ball off of the ground last year. As crazy as spending has been on contracts, prospect returns have been pretty tepid the last few years.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 11:50:49 GMT -5
There is a wide range in those combinations. Duh, but my point is that any combination of that ilk is enough to improve this team. Well, I’ll be explicit. No, I don’t think any two of those guys makes this a better team. I think some combinations do. I think some combinations do not.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 9, 2022 11:57:32 GMT -5
Duh, but my point is that any combination of that ilk is enough to improve this team. Well, I’ll be explicit. No, I don’t think any two of those guys makes this a better team. I think some combinations do. I think some combinations do not. Okay, that's why I asked the question. I don't agree, but it's certainly a fair stance.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 9, 2022 11:58:34 GMT -5
Fair, but is plus defensive outfielding worth 5 controllable years of Tanner Houck? No shot IMO. If Houck finds his 2021 stuff, starter or reliever he’s a weapon. I think something like Crawford and one or two of Abreu/Paulino/Bonaci would be fine for Kepler, who is on his walk year, has posted two below league average slashes in a row, and suddenly forgot how to hit the ball off of the ground last year. As crazy as spending has been on contracts, prospect returns have been pretty tepid the last few years. I’d hope this would do it and if it does, I’d make the move in a nanosecond. Edit: I’ll take my chances with Kepler @ 8 million this year and a $10 million option in 2024 than giving Conforto $12 million who didn’t play all of 2022 or trading for Reynolds who would cost far too much in prospect capital.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 12:11:01 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 9, 2022 12:17:32 GMT -5
If we don't sign Correa, maybe we should just sign his closest statistical comp? That guy seems pretty good.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 12:20:29 GMT -5
For sure, but you’ll probably get 15-20 if he gets 500 AB’s The defense is by far the most important reason to get him though This is where I'm at as well. I think the name of the game for the 2023 Red Sox is going to have to be run prevention and a good defender in Fenway is a key to that. He doesn't fit my preference of high OBP low K% for the lineup but they could use his glove out there in RF. If the price is right I'm on board for getting Kepler. Have you looked at his stats recently? His OBP hasn't been high in his career because of a low average, but he had an 88th percentile xOBP last year and it's climbed each of the past five seasons. His K% and BB% are both fabulous too; career 18% K rate and 10% BB rate, 15% and 11% last year. His Savant page is basically all red despite the poor counting stats and low wRC+. He's been in the 90+ percentile for OAA 5 of the last 6 seasons too. It's wild:
He was the 20th most shifted on player in MLB last year, at 90% of PAs. Yes, his numbers against the shift were better than against non-shifts, but non-shifts were only 46 PAs total, so SSS. I'm sure they hurt him given how often they were used all season. 42% pull percentage, 24% oppo percentage, basically average GB% for his career (although above average last year), and 64th percentile sprint speed. I could see this glorious bastard thriving in a world without shifts. Fenway might not do him too many favors as a pull-hitting lefty, but oh well, he has too much going for him for me to be concerned.
If the Twins are willing to trade him, I am all over Kepler to the point where I will finally stop banging the Reynolds drum.... *sounds of SP forum collectively sighing in relief*... The cost for Kepler would obviously be a ton lower, and especially if the Twins would be interested in Hosmer like someone just suggested I doubt we'd have to give up anything too painful for him. His contract isn't too expensive either and I love the option for next season.
So yeah, friendship ended with Bryan Reynolds. Ich muss unbedingt Kepler haben!
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 9, 2022 12:25:19 GMT -5
Kepler's ZiPS projection is worse than Verdugo. Am I missing something here with this guy lol.
Verdugo: .296/.349/.444, .341 wOBA, 2.2 WAR Kepler: .231/.320/.410, .317 wOBA, 2.0 WAR
The Sox already got their corner OF they need in Yoshida, I don't see why they would go seek out a trade for Kepler.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 12:30:26 GMT -5
Kepler's ZiPS projection is worse than Verdugo. Am I missing something here with this guy lol. No, I don't think so. He's pretty much Verdugo with a little different skill set. Basically the same contract status too. It's a nice thing to have Alex Verdugo though.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 12:32:30 GMT -5
Kepler's ZiPS projection is worse than Verdugo. Am I missing something here with this guy lol. Verdugo: .296/.349/.444, .341 wOBA, 2.2 WAR Kepler: .231/.320/.410, .317 wOBA, 2.0 WAR The Sox already got their corner OF they need in Yoshida, I don't see why they would go seek out a trade for Kepler. Verdugo is a poor LF. Kepler is an elite RF. This is certainly factored into the WAR for Kepler, but if ZiPS is expecting Verdugo to play LF they could be overrating his likelihood of providing value defensively. Not sure if ZiPS is smart enough to factor in things like the size of Fenway's RF or how it weights LF versus RF, though... Guessing a bit here.
I also don't think ZiPS is accounting for the shift ban. Verdugo sprays the ball to all fields pretty evenly and was only shifted on 24% of the time last year. Kepler pulls the ball at nearly a 2:1 clip versus hitting to the opposite field and was shifted on 90% of the time last year. Kepler stands to benefit hugely from the shift ban, while Verdugo probably won't be affected much.
I wouldn't hate Verdugo and Yoshida both DHing lots and mixing into the OF sometimes if we send Hosmer+ to Minny to acquire Kepler. It'd be a pretty left-handed lineup, but I honestly don't care much. Worst case Refsnyder has a bit bigger role, but I think he can handle that.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 9, 2022 12:34:02 GMT -5
Kepler's ZiPS projection is worse than Verdugo. Am I missing something here with this guy lol. Verdugo: .296/.349/.444, .341 wOBA, 2.2 WAR Kepler: .231/.320/.410, .317 wOBA, 2.0 WAR The Sox already got their corner OF they need in Yoshida, I don't see why they would go seek out a trade for Kepler. One reason being is that you’d want Yoshida ideally DH’ing more often than not seeing he’s not a good defensive outfielder. Also opens up Verdugo to be part of a trade package to net the team a SS or SP.
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