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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 15, 2023 19:38:43 GMT -5
Shoutout Incandenza for doing the Lord's work on this thread after I got clowned on last night.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 15, 2023 19:48:10 GMT -5
I'm seeing a lot of focus of discussion on the evaluation of Drohan itself in making the decision, but I think the offseason plan plays as big of a role in the decision to protect or not protect him. If Breslow has come in and said that at a minimum, we need to bring in say 5 fresh faces via free agency (lets say 2 SP, 1 RP, and middle infielder and OF/DH/utility), then you have two spots currently open for that, plus potential DFAs of Weiss, Llovera, Robertson, Jacques, and Mills behind that. They might opt to keep guys like Llovera and Robertson on the roster with hope that they meaningfully contribute this year vs. Drohan. If you select Drohan and then run up against tough DFA situation as the offseason progresses, then you'll find yourself much in the situation that Bloom found himself in last year with lots of DFAs (Seabold, Jeter Downs, Hosmer, German, Barnes, Darwinzon) and little in return.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 15, 2023 19:53:11 GMT -5
Kristian Robinson hit well in A-ball (.288/.407/.538) as a 22yo before being promoted to high-A then double-A. Missed 3 years due to legal/visa issues (more info below). In 206 ABs between the 3 levels he had 13 HRs and 22 SBs. One of the highest ceiling guys I've seen on these lists. www.mlb.com/prospects/dbacks/kristian-robinson-677565He’s definitely amongst the highest ceiling Rule 5 guys, along with McCray from SF…i think they both have enough defensive chops that you could theoretically get some usage but they both have strikeout and contact issues and were mostly in High A This year. I think Hudson Haskins from the orioles makes a lot of sense in terms of being able to stick and develop while being a 4th outfielder…just a little further along, right handed bat who can handle center, fast, decent pop that seems to be coming along and can draw some walks. Good call. Little worried about the injuries and 35% K% last season, but the defense could get him playing time early and the upside seems pretty good. They have his arm as a 45 - wonder if it's good enough for RF at Fenway.
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Post by lennsakata on Nov 15, 2023 21:50:35 GMT -5
He’s definitely amongst the highest ceiling Rule 5 guys, along with McCray from SF…i think they both have enough defensive chops that you could theoretically get some usage but they both have strikeout and contact issues and were mostly in High A This year. I think Hudson Haskins from the orioles makes a lot of sense in terms of being able to stick and develop while being a 4th outfielder…just a little further along, right handed bat who can handle center, fast, decent pop that seems to be coming along and can draw some walks. Good call. Little worried about the injuries and 35% K% last season, but the defense could get him playing time early and the upside seems pretty good. They have his arm as a 45 - wonder if it's good enough for RF at Fenway. Yeah, I saw his arm wasn’t great…probably more of a CF/LF. His k rate was under 25% the previous 2 years so I chalk last year up to his season being limited at bats (115) between 3 teams, interrupted by two injuries …he had a hamstring at the beginning of the year and came back but then got a hip impingement soon after. I always like the odds of guys like him (6’2 200lbs, 60 grade speed) of figuring out additional power eventually.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 15, 2023 23:45:55 GMT -5
There is such cognitive dissonance in this discussion. Our farm system, according to the the universe of "experts," has such a paucity of pitching that some believe warrants being ranked the 16th team in baseball. Meanwhile, the premise of much of this discussion is that other teams are clamoring to grab our unprotected pitchers, specifically one pitcher whose AAA results are appalling. I think a more compelling discussion would be whether we're going to lose Castro or Bonaci. Nobody is picking Brainer, I can tell you that much Castro is the guy I’d be most worried about but he’s so far away i can’t see him sticking Agree CDJ. Why people just figure those with (possible) reprehensible crimes are in demand, brings to me the memory of the thouroughly dispicable player and so called, human being Elijah Dukes, who was another bad apple who got his start in the Rays organization and throughout his MiLB and MLB career, kept on piling up reprehensible acts before his last team (Nats) showed him the door for good. Write up, tho short just off ED's wikepedia page. Few things missing can remember from his days in Tampa, but this list reads like a novel: Give Bonaci a chance, by all means but I don't see another team wasting a valuable 40 man spot.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 16, 2023 0:19:17 GMT -5
There is such cognitive dissonance in this discussion. Our farm system, according to the the universe of "experts," has such a paucity of pitching that some believe warrants being ranked the 16th team in baseball. Meanwhile, the premise of much of this discussion is that other teams are clamoring to grab our unprotected pitchers, specifically one pitcher whose AAA results are appalling. I think a more compelling discussion would be whether we're going to lose Castro or Bonaci. Nobody is picking Brainer, I can tell you that much Castro is the guy I’d be most worried about but he’s so far away i can’t see him sticking I wouldn't be so sure about that. Teams have different standards when it comes to these types of accusations. To wit, in December of 2015 the Dodgers were deep in trade negotiations with the Reds for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman... until they found out that less than two months earlier he had discharged a firearm 8 times in his Miami garage in an attempt to frighten his domestic partner. He also choked her and pushed her against a wall, according to the police report. The Dodgers found this appalling and nixed the deal. If you don't remember the rest of the story, Brian Cashman was less appalled by the news and promptly forged his own deal with the Reds, whose owner was adamant that his GM get rid of Chapman, not caring that the Cuban southpaw's value was now severely compromised. Seven short months later -- with none of the details of the domestic violence incident changed -- Cashman turned Chapman over to Theo Epstein's Cubs for a much richer haul, including two top-100 prospects (indeed, MFY hacks like Jay Jaffe point to this series of exchanges as a feather in Cashman's cap). After the Cubs won the WS (despite Chapman gagging up a 3-run lead in the bottom of the 8th inning in Game 7), the heavy-sweating lefty was rewarded with a record FA contract, again by Cashman. He later signed as a FA with the Royals, who then traded him to the Rangers. These teams also knew the circumstances of his past and welcomed him into their clubs. So while some clubs will want to steer clear of Bonaci, like the Reds and Dodgers in the Chapman saga, others will almost certainly be undeterred. If you're a GM and you like Brainer as a player, you may figure that you can just cut him and eat the $50k in a worst-case scenario. If you're a GM, you also certainly know already that the vast majority of these cases end with the player serving a suspension, taking part in required counseling, then returning to the field after a few months. You also have seen with your own eyes how little your peers have suffered when dealing in players who faced domestic abuse discipline -- indeed, Cashman still has his job and Theo will probably be the next commissioner. Chris Young is browsing through a Jostens catalog as I type this. Obviously it's not just Chapman and Bonaci; there have been dozens of others in the major and minor leagues of baseball alone. I personally would frown on my team taking on a player facing such allegations, as you and many others on this board clearly also would. I think Red Sox brass know this about their fanbase -- we pay close attention, even to teenagers in the lower minors. Indeed, the Bruins got burned just last season by signing a young player with an unsavory history of bullying behavior and may still be paying his salary after cutting him loose due to fan and player reactions. It turned into a protracted walk of shame for Don Sweeney and Cam Neely. But I would posit that many fanbases would shrug at a headline reading "Local team drafts player facing domestic abuse charges." There are surely plenty of good fans of the Cubs and Rangers who were disgusted by Chapman joining their teams but still cheered like hell when the final out of the season was recorded. So no, I won't be surprised if Bonaci gets picked although a 26-man roster spot is a difficult proposition for a AA UT. Whatever happens I hope whoever he may have harmed, whether physically or mentally, will get the help they need and recover fully. I also hope that Brainer takes his counseling seriously and betters himself.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2023 1:56:58 GMT -5
The new expanded and revised version of The Letters of J.R.R. Tolkien arrived a few hours before the Rule 5 deadline ... which is why I didn't remember it until an hour so ago!
The other way to look at this: who are the 14 guys on the ST 40-man who don't project to be on the opening day 26, if all are healthy?
Hamilton Rafaela Valdez - no way you even need a second backup infielder
Abreu - great up-and-down guy who needs to get even better
Murphy can you see him pitching in a close playoff game? Kelly ditto Walter Robertson Gonzalez Perez Mata they'll try to sneak him through waivers or deal him to a second division team, if he doesn't look great in ST
I took 4 guys off the projected MLB roster and put them here ... and still have 3 open spots!
One I think is a no-brainer: a better up-and-down SP than Murphy and Walter, ideally a guy set to start a career as a genuine 4th starter, but who has an option left.
Another is easy to spot: a catcher who has options left. They need a legit 3rd catcher in any case, why not acquire someone who won't need a 40-man move if needed?.
There are numerous possibilities for the last spot on the 40:
A prospect obtained in a Verdugo or Dalbec trade that isn't one of the above Their own Rule 5 pick Yet another depth-chart starter Something we don't know about Weiss, Jaceses, or Mills
[my fave] Both Verdugo and Dalbec until a ST trade or injury
Given this analysis, not protecting Drohan makes good sense.
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Post by patford on Nov 16, 2023 11:33:23 GMT -5
Part of the excited reactions to Drohan not being protected might be the scouting report on his Sox Prospects page. Drohan got a tremendous amount of helium during his amazing run in Portland. His scouting report was updated during that run and reading it makes it sound like Drohan is the best pitcher in the organization or close to it with Drohan being described as:
"Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade."
I don't know which of the Sox Prospects staff wrote that report but I'd guess if they were to revise it now there would be some changes made based on his really bad and consistently bad time in AAA ball which was nearly three times (89 inning v. 34 innings) as large a sample size as his run in Portland.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 16, 2023 11:44:58 GMT -5
Part of the excited reactions to Drohan not being protected might be the scouting report on his Sox Prospects page. Drohan got a tremendous amount of helium during his amazing run in Portland. His scouting report was updated during that run and reading it makes it sound like Drohan is the best pitcher in the organization or close to it with Drohan being described as: "Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade." I don't know which of the Sox Prospects staff wrote that report but I'd guess if they were to revise it now there would be some changes made based on his really bad and consistently bad time in AAA ball which was nearly three times (89 inning v. 34 innings) as large a sample size as his run in Portland. All of this is true, but it's the very fact that he was *so* good so recently that makes leaving him unprotected rather perplexing to me (and dcsoxfan, if no one else).
I'd also add that it wasn't just the 34 inings in Portland but also spring training, and above all the fact that he made concrete changes to his arsenal over the off-season, that account for the scouting report; in fact it looks like it was written before he had even pitched in Portland. If he made those adjustments last off-season, who's to say he can't again this off-season?
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 16, 2023 12:24:41 GMT -5
Part of the excited reactions to Drohan not being protected might be the scouting report on his Sox Prospects page. Drohan got a tremendous amount of helium during his amazing run in Portland. His scouting report was updated during that run and reading it makes it sound like Drohan is the best pitcher in the organization or close to it with Drohan being described as: "Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. Already took a massive step forward during the 2022-23 offseason adding a cutter and increasing his velocity by a full grade." I don't know which of the Sox Prospects staff wrote that report but I'd guess if they were to revise it now there would be some changes made based on his really bad and consistently bad time in AAA ball which was nearly three times (89 inning v. 34 innings) as large a sample size as his run in Portland. All of this is true, but it's the very fact that he was *so* good so recently that makes leaving him unprotected rather perplexing to me (and dcsoxfan, if no one else).
I'd also add that it wasn't just the 34 inings in Portland but also spring training, and above all the fact that he made concrete changes to his arsenal over the off-season, that account for the scouting report; in fact it looks like it was written before he had even pitched in Portland. If he made those adjustments last off-season, who's to say he can't again this off-season?
I feel like you’re arguing against something nobody is actually saying. I don’t think anybody thinks Shane Drohan has no shot at ever being good again. It’s more that you have to weigh the odds that he’s MLB-caliber next year against the odds that he is not worth keeping on the 40-man going into the season. There is real a risk that he comes back good as new and they lose a valuable contributor, but just how likely do you think that is? You also haven’t really addressed what I think the main reason for not protecting him is, which is the downside risk of a DFA. Presumably, if all goes according to plan the Sox don’t think they’ll have space for him on the 40-man. Do you think odds are higher that he sticks on a 26-man roster for the full season, or that he gets DFA’d to make room for whatever offseason additions they want to make? Or even someone else in the org they decide is more worthy of that spot? Given how much of a mess he apparently was at the end of the season I’d have to say, as it stands, the latter is more likely.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 16, 2023 12:38:55 GMT -5
All of this is true, but it's the very fact that he was *so* good so recently that makes leaving him unprotected rather perplexing to me (and dcsoxfan, if no one else).
I'd also add that it wasn't just the 34 inings in Portland but also spring training, and above all the fact that he made concrete changes to his arsenal over the off-season, that account for the scouting report; in fact it looks like it was written before he had even pitched in Portland. If he made those adjustments last off-season, who's to say he can't again this off-season?
I feel like you’re arguing against something nobody is actually saying. I don’t think anybody thinks Shane Drohan has no shot at ever being good again. It’s more that you have to weigh the odds that he’s MLB-caliber next year against the odds that he is not worth keeping on the 40-man going into the season. There is real a risk that he comes back good as new and they lose a valuable contributor, but just how likely do you think that is? You also haven’t really addressed what I think the main reason for not protecting him is, which is the downside risk of a DFA. Presumably, if all goes according to plan the Sox don’t think they’ll have space for him on the 40-man. Do you think odds are higher that he sticks on a 26-man roster for the full season, or that he gets DFA’d to make room for whatever offseason additions they want to make? Or even someone else in the org they decide is more worthy of that spot? Given how much of a mess he apparently was at the end of the season I’d have to say, as it stands, the latter is more likely. Well it's a question of degrees. I hereby acknowledge that a) no one is saying it's impossible for Drohan to be good again; and b) the DFA risk is real. I'm just saying that Drohan strikes me as a player who has a relatively decent chance of being good again, and that the risk of leaving him unprotected outweighs the DFA risk.
Among other things, the Red Sox will need a couple of guys with options in the Ort mold: AAA depth to fill in for injuries, etc. A couple of spots on the 40-man have to go to such players (a fact that was the source of endless consternation last year when Ort and Brasier were kept at the expense of Ward). Unlike Ward last year, Drohan himself could potentially play that role this season.
And finally: the logic in your last paragraph is perfectly reasonable, given the fact that the Red Sox left him unprotected. But I would be surprised if you'd have come to that conclusion before they did so. In other words, I don't recall anyone anticipating they'd leave Drohan unprotected before they did so. It makes perfect sense to say "well, if the team left him unprotected, I guess he wasn't as valuable a prospect as most of us thought." But that doesn't actually answer the question of why the team thought that.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 16, 2023 12:49:20 GMT -5
Yeah, to me it's really a question of whether holding on to Drohan until at least next April/May to see if he can rebound is worth more than whoever the last person on the 40 man ends up being. In my opinion, yes, absolutely, and so I would have protected him.
I can understand why people might feel differently, but I don't really understand the "it would be a disaster to protect him all winter and then dfa him" argument - the only cost there is whoever the next-last person on the 40-man is, which isn't likely to be worth a ton. And yeah, you're more likely to lose Drohan if you eventually dfa him, but if you have to do that it's probably not much of a loss at that point anyway.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 16, 2023 13:05:06 GMT -5
Nobody is picking Brainer, I can tell you that much Castro is the guy I’d be most worried about but he’s so far away i can’t see him sticking Agree CDJ. Why people just figure those with (possible) reprehensible crimes are in demand, brings to me the memory of the thouroughly dispicable player and so called, human being Elijah Dukes, who was another bad apple who got his start in the Rays organization and throughout his MiLB and MLB career, kept on piling up reprehensible acts before his last team (Nats) showed him the door for good. Write up, tho short just off ED's wikepedia page. Few things missing can remember from his days in Tampa, but this list reads like a novel: Give Bonaci a chance, by all means but I don't see another team wasting a valuable 40 man spot. Look on the bright side, at least Bonaci still rates above Matt Dermody…… (Just in case…..yes, this is sarcasm)
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 16, 2023 14:58:58 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 16, 2023 15:31:20 GMT -5
I know the 2023 rule 5 draft hasn't even taken place yet but after reading that interesting write-up, gotta say if a decent chunk of those guys named have a solid year and continue through the ranks it sounds like the 2024 40 man rule 5 draft decisions are going to be very difficult. Can probably say it every year but it would seem to be in Breslow's best interests to try and parse through some 2024 rule 5 eligible guys and extract some value via trade before having to leave them open to the draft but I suppose we should get through the 2023 rule 5 and at least part of the 2024 season before saying he's gotta move some of these guys now.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 16, 2023 15:33:49 GMT -5
People just aren’t discounting how bad our farm is in terms of pitching talent.
People are also putting a lot of merit into 34 innings of AA, his only innings in a level that were a sun 4 FIP
Then people want to ignore 89 innings of him not just being bad in AAA but absolutely putrid …. 6.5 walks per 9 innings
Then you remember he is 25 in 2 months
Doesn’t seem like all that hard of a decision
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 16, 2023 16:28:51 GMT -5
I was curious about whether Bonaci is even eligible for selection and found the following:
I'm pretty sure this means Bonaci is ineligible for the 2023 rule-5 draft.
One other interesting tidbit is that a team can gain extra control over an international (domestic too, but draft rules mostly negate this) player if they wait to sign him until the day after the MLB season ends OR the season of his first minor league team ends. So for a player who signed on September 2nd (possibly sooner, not sure if post-season is included) of this year, who starts his minor league season in the DSL, their first year for rule-5 eligibility would be 2028 rather than 2027. It may make sense to delay low-tier signings by promising extra $$ given that most international players become eligible when they're 20 or 21.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 16, 2023 16:34:04 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure this means Bonaci is ineligible for the 2023 rule-5 draft. Good catch. Earlier I linked to a mlb.com article with a big list of every team's top 30 prospects that were eligible for the Rule 5 draft, and Bonaci was not listed despite still being on their prospect list. At the time I thought it was an error but I think you're right.
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Post by costpet on Nov 16, 2023 16:45:22 GMT -5
The new expanded and revised version of The Letters of J.R.R. Tolkien arrived a few hours before the Rule 5 deadline ... which is why I didn't remember it until an hour so ago!
The other way to look at this: who are the 14 guys on the ST 40-man who don't project to be on the opening day 26, if all are healthy?
Hamilton Rafaela Valdez - no way you even need a second backup infielder
Abreu - great up-and-down guy who needs to get even better
Murphy can you see him pitching in a close playoff game? Kelly ditto Walter Robertson Gonzalez Perez Mata they'll try to sneak him through waivers or deal him to a second division team, if he doesn't look great in ST
I took 4 guys off the projected MLB roster and put them here ... and still have 3 open spots!
One I think is a no-brainer: a better up-and-down SP than Murphy and Walter, ideally a guy set to start a career as a genuine 4th starter, but who has an option left.
Another is easy to spot: a catcher who has options left. They need a legit 3rd catcher in any case, why not acquire someone who won't need a 40-man move if needed?.
There are numerous possibilities for the last spot on the 40:
A prospect obtained in a Verdugo or Dalbec trade that isn't one of the above Their own Rule 5 pick Yet another depth-chart starter Something we don't know about Weiss, Jaceses, or Mills
[my fave] Both Verdugo and Dalbec until a ST trade or injury
Given this analysis, not protecting Drohan makes good sense.
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Post by costpet on Nov 16, 2023 16:45:57 GMT -5
Mata to a second division team? Isn't that what WE ARE?
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Post by ephus on Nov 16, 2023 17:28:43 GMT -5
If I'm Boston, I take a long look at Aaron Schunk in Colorado. 26 years old, former 2nd round pick out of Georgia. Right handed, some pop, solid glove at third and second. Solid run producer. Take a flyer for a position of need. www.milb.com/player/aaron-schunk-668845
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 16, 2023 18:01:26 GMT -5
I decided to build a custom baseball front office GPT ( link* in case anyone wants to try it out) for funsies and decided to ask it about the Shane Drohan decision, here's what it said: "The decision by the Boston Red Sox not to add Shane Drohan to their 40-man roster, thus exposing him to the Rule 5 Draft, appears to be driven by several factors: 1. Performance Inconsistency: Drohan had an impressive start to his 2023 season with a 5-0 record and a 1.32 ERA at the Double-A level with the Portland Sea Dogs. However, upon his promotion to Triple-A, he struggled significantly, posting a 6.47 ERA in 21 appearances (19 starts). His velocity also decreased, and he was inconsistent in finding the strike zone. These performance issues at the higher minor league level likely contributed to the decision to leave him off the 40-man roster. 2. Injury and Fatigue Concerns: Drohan missed some time due to a calf injury and showed signs of fatigue during the season. While he maintained strong command of his fastball, the overall impact of his health and endurance issues may have factored into the Red Sox's evaluation of his readiness for the major leagues. 3. Pitching Profile and Organizational Strategy: Drohan's fastball velocity sits between 92-94 mph, topping out at 96 mph. He also offers a cutter, changeup, and curveball. However, Red Sox's Chief Baseball Officer, Craig Breslow, seems to value pitchers with higher velocity and consistent strike-throwing ability. Drohan's struggles with consistency at Triple-A level, especially in maintaining velocity and control, might not align with the organizational strategy for pitching prospects moving forward. 4. Comparative Decision-Making: The Red Sox had previously made a similar gamble by not adding Thad Ward to their 40-man roster, which, based on Ward's subsequent performance (6.37 ERA in his first season with Washington), appears to have been a correct decision. This precedence might have influenced their willingness to take a similar risk with Drohan, betting that even if another team selects him in the Rule 5 Draft, they might not be able to keep him on their MLB roster for the entire season, as required by the draft's rules. In conclusion, while Drohan has shown potential, his struggles at the Triple-A level, combined with injury concerns, and not fitting the desired pitching profile, likely led to the Red Sox's decision. Whether this was the right decision remains to be seen and will depend on Drohan's future development and performance, as well as how the Red Sox manage their pitching roster in his absence." Some of this is nonsense (I doubt Ward's ERA in Washington had anything to do with their decision not to protect Drohan), but was a fun experiment for me so felt like sharing. On a separate topic, but to demonstrate the GPT's range, I asked it to create a Verdugo trade and it suggested Xavier Edwards from the Marlins, and then subsequently signing Teoscar Hernandez, which honestly isn't the worst proposal I've heard. *Its name is Triple Play Think Tank, which was suggested by ChatGPT, because the underlying logic in each recommendation is meant to have it consider an analytical approach, a traditionalist scouting/context approach, and a hybrid approach. Another fun thing it did is in one of the questions I asked it it's internet search landed it on Soxprospects dot com.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 16, 2023 18:16:35 GMT -5
That's really cool, scottysmalls. I asked it to estimate Juan Soto's surplus value and to show its work, and while the final answer wasn't quite right, I was pretty impressed with its step by step analysis.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 16, 2023 19:01:32 GMT -5
How long until the Las Vegas As hire chatgptgm to run their team?
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 16, 2023 19:12:34 GMT -5
That's really cool, scottysmalls. I asked it to estimate Juan Soto's surplus value and to show its work, and while the final answer wasn't quite right, I was pretty impressed with its step by step analysis. Thanks for trying it out! Good feedback, going to try to make it smarter and more useful. Certain things, like how it measures surplus value, can be built in and better configured.
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