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4/6-4/9 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 19:51:44 GMT -5
Honestly, replacing Duvall's bat with Chang's while getting big defensive upgrades at CF and SS doesn't strike me as a too big a deal. I wasn't expecting Duvall to be much more than average with the bat going forward. Is Arroyo that much of a upgrade over Kiké full-time at short stop? Is Dalbec? Chang has played maybe a total of 150 innings in his MLB career at short stop. He's more of a fill-in.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 9, 2023 21:18:23 GMT -5
Honestly, replacing Duvall's bat with Chang's while getting big defensive upgrades at CF and SS doesn't strike me as a too big a deal. I wasn't expecting Duvall to be much more than average with the bat going forward. Is Arroyo that much of a upgrade over Kiké full-time at short stop? Is Dalbec? Chang has played maybe a total of 150 innings in his MLB career at short stop. He's more of a fill-in. Kiki hasn't played more than 150 innings in a year at short since 2018. And then it was only 159 innings. I can't believe Chang could be worse defensively at short than Hernandez. And Hernandez should be better defensively in center than Duvall. Obviously, it is going to hurt the offense, but maybe the better defense will make up for some of that loss. It would be nice if Turner and Arroyo could get going a little.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 21:34:41 GMT -5
Is Arroyo that much of a upgrade over Kiké full-time at short stop? Is Dalbec? Chang has played maybe a total of 150 innings in his MLB career at short stop. He's more of a fill-in. Kiki hasn't played more than 150 innings in a year at short since 2018. And then it was only 159 innings. I can't believe Chang could be worse defensively at short than Hernandez. And Hernandez should be better defensively in center than Duvall. Obviously, it is going to hurt the offense, but maybe the better defense will make up for some of that loss. It would be nice if Turner and Arroyo could get going a little. Not to be rude or anything, but the phrase "he can't be any worse than Hernandez" (I'm not quoting anyone here), might have a bit of fallacy here. The fact that Hernandez has only 150 innings at SS in his career proved how bad he was there. The same could be true for Chang. Chang or Arroyo at SS full-time could be a impending disaster defensively. Kiké in CF obviously is a good move laterally to losing Duvall.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 9, 2023 22:14:54 GMT -5
Kiki hasn't played more than 150 innings in a year at short since 2018. And then it was only 159 innings. I can't believe Chang could be worse defensively at short than Hernandez. And Hernandez should be better defensively in center than Duvall. Obviously, it is going to hurt the offense, but maybe the better defense will make up for some of that loss. It would be nice if Turner and Arroyo could get going a little. Not to be rude or anything, but the phrase "he can't be any worse than Hernandez" (I'm not quoting anyone here), might have a bit of fallacy here. The fact that Hernandez has only 150 innings at SS in his career proved how bad he was there. The same could be true for Chang. Chang or Arroyo at SS full-time could be a impending disaster defensively. Kiké in CF obviously is a good move laterally to losing Duvall. Chang has played 187 innings of SS in his career and has yet to make an error there. Hernandez has 5 errors in 65 innings this year. Chang's at 1 OAA there for his career and Hernandez is at -2 OAA this year (-6 OAA career at SS in 683 innings). The comparison holds at 2B and 3B as well; at 2B Chang is a career 3 OAA in 320 innings and Hernandez is a career -6 OAA in 1717 innings; at 3B Chang is a career 5 OAA in 333 innings and Hernandez is a career -4 OAA in 155 innings. Chang's sample sizes are a bit small, but all signs point to him being a better all-around defensive infielder than Hernandez.
Meanwhile, Hernandez is at 13 OAA in CF while with the Sox. Duvall is a decent defensive OF, but Kiké has been incredible out there. So, we should get better defensively at both SS and CF with this change. The obvious downside is downgrading from Duvall's bat to Chang's, but it's not the end of the world until Mondesi or Duvall is ready.
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Post by backwardsk on Apr 9, 2023 22:46:18 GMT -5
Not to be rude or anything, but the phrase "he can't be any worse than Hernandez" (I'm not quoting anyone here), might have a bit of fallacy here. The fact that Hernandez has only 150 innings at SS in his career proved how bad he was there. The same could be true for Chang. Chang or Arroyo at SS full-time could be a impending disaster defensively. Kiké in CF obviously is a good move laterally to losing Duvall. Chang has played 187 innings of SS in his career and has yet to make an error there. Hernandez has 5 errors in 65 innings this year. Chang's at 1 OAA there for his career and Hernandez is at -2 OAA this year (-6 OAA career at SS in 683 innings). The comparison holds at 2B and 3B as well; at 2B Chang is a career 3 OAA in 320 innings and Hernandez is a career -6 OAA in 1717 innings; at 3B Chang is a career 5 OAA in 333 innings and Hernandez is a career -4 OAA in 155 innings. Chang's sample sizes are a bit small, but all signs point to him being a better all-around defensive infielder than Hernandez.
Meanwhile, Hernandez is at 13 OAA in CF while with the Sox. Duvall is a decent defensive OF, but Kiké has been incredible out there. So, we should get better defensively at both SS and CF with this change. The obvious downside is downgrading from Duvall's bat to Chang's, but it's not the end of the world until Mondesi or Duvall is ready.
Okay point taken, hope you're right. I think the Sox should be in the waiver wires at the very least if they're not making a big trade for a middle infielder. I would definitely see if the Braves are willing to give up (old waiver wire friend) Hoy Park and have him be a bench piece.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 10, 2023 0:06:54 GMT -5
Counterpoint- That 6 weeks means a lot. A quarter of the season. Alberto Mondesi isn't a guy who shouldn't be playing everyday coming back from a bad injury. He'll need days off, more than most regulars when he comes back. The difference between Pivetta and Houck might be more marginal than the huge difference between Arroyo at short stop for that time and a better defensive short stop. Pivetta isn't going to be a long-term guy here. He'll be gone before 2024. His last year of arbitration will be expensive if he has a year close to his 2022 this year. Add- I think Pivetta's value is enough to get you some kind of good fill-in. Especially for a team starved for starting pitching due to injuries or performance right now. Mondesi was looking like he had an outside chance of being ready for Opening Day coming into camp, and then was 60 Day IL'd without any major setback (to my knowledge). I'm expecting him to be ready to go by the end of May. Maybe he gets more days off than usual when he returns, but he should be playing most days.
Let's assume Pivetta can be traded for an average (~2 WAR) SS, which I think is already a stretch. The difference between that SS and a replacement level bozo (0 WAR) over a max of 6 weeks is ~0.4 wins minus what you lose by giving up Pivetta. That doesn't move the needle at all. Pivetta made 33 starts and ate 179.2 IP last year, and he's the only guy on our staff we can count on for similar durability this year. There's no reason to expect him to be gone before 2024 unless guys exceed expectations and/or he regresses. He's only making $5.3 million this year in Arb 2. A reliable back of rotation starter would still be a good deal at ~1/8 next year, which is about what he would get if he reprised 2022; Pivetta's combined value over the past two seasons was $29.5 million, per Fangraphs, so well north of what he'll be making in Arb 3. Almost by definition, players need to regress over their arbitration years in order to not be worth the money.
A counterpoint though is that Pivetta is almost certainly destined to be moved to the BP once Bello, Whitlock & Paxton are in the rotation. That’s not something he’s not going to take very well. Why not flip him now while his value is relatively good for someone who can not only potentially fill a void now, but also into next season?
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Post by keninten on Apr 10, 2023 0:46:05 GMT -5
Mondesi was looking like he had an outside chance of being ready for Opening Day coming into camp, and then was 60 Day IL'd without any major setback (to my knowledge). I'm expecting him to be ready to go by the end of May. Maybe he gets more days off than usual when he returns, but he should be playing most days.
Let's assume Pivetta can be traded for an average (~2 WAR) SS, which I think is already a stretch. The difference between that SS and a replacement level bozo (0 WAR) over a max of 6 weeks is ~0.4 wins minus what you lose by giving up Pivetta. That doesn't move the needle at all. Pivetta made 33 starts and ate 179.2 IP last year, and he's the only guy on our staff we can count on for similar durability this year. There's no reason to expect him to be gone before 2024 unless guys exceed expectations and/or he regresses. He's only making $5.3 million this year in Arb 2. A reliable back of rotation starter would still be a good deal at ~1/8 next year, which is about what he would get if he reprised 2022; Pivetta's combined value over the past two seasons was $29.5 million, per Fangraphs, so well north of what he'll be making in Arb 3. Almost by definition, players need to regress over their arbitration years in order to not be worth the money.
A counterpoint though is that Pivetta is almost certainly destined to be moved to the BP once Bello, Whitlock & Paxton are in the rotation. That’s not something he’s not going to take very well. Why not flip him now while his value is relatively good for someone who can not only potentially fill a void now, but also into next season? Sale, Paxton, Bello, and Whitlock are going to need their innings limited somewhat. Maybe skip some turns or just have limited pitch counts. Plus any number of them might go back on the IL.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 10, 2023 1:46:52 GMT -5
Why is nobody willing to give Tapia some time in CF? Heâs for sure a good hitter and better than Chang. Is it more of hating Kiké at SS defensively?
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 10, 2023 1:58:27 GMT -5
Well, the benefit of not signing one guy to big money is you can spread your money around and have a lot of depth ready to step in.
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Post by keninten on Apr 10, 2023 3:58:51 GMT -5
Why is nobody willing to give Tapia some time in CF? HeâÂÂs for sure a good hitter and better than Chang. Is it more of hating Kiké at SS defensively? Yes, Kiké looks bad to me. I loved Bogaerts but not his defense and Kiké makes Bogaerts look like GGer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2023 6:37:46 GMT -5
Why is nobody willing to give Tapia some time in CF? Heâs for sure a good hitter and better than Chang. Is it more of hating Kiké at SS defensively? Tapia is a decent hitter but a mediocre offensive player. His OPS+ will be below 100 or probably below 90. My guess is once they get through the string of lefties they face we'll see Duran called up and given his final chance to make it or break it. I don't think there will be anything fancy done to replace Duvall. My guess is Hernandez will remain at SS. I doubt they pull the plug so quickly. Besides it's not like they really have anybody really ready to step in. Instead of moving Yoshida to DH and Turner to 1b against lefties, we will probably see Yoshida remain in LF and Turner stay at DH and Verdugo will renain in RF. We will probably see a Duran/Refsnyder platoon in CF and a Casas/Dalbec platoon at 1b. Maybe Brasier will finally get released to make room for Duran. If Duran succeeds and hits the way he needs to hit they can lead him off and drop Verdugo toward the middle of the order as the loss of Duvall really thins the lineup, especially from the right side of the plate. If Duran fails to hit and is unplayable in CF then we probably see Tapia get some run but that's less than ideal. He's good as a 4th OF but not so good as a semi-regular. If the defense becomes untenable which is quite possible/probable, the extra couple of months of giving Duran a chance gives Rafaela more experience in the minors. Of course by then Mondesi might be ready to come back and play SS and move Hernandez back to CF. And if the always injured Mondesi isn't ready and Duran has failed and Hernandez's defense at SS is still bad, they could consider calling up Rafaela and plug him into SS and move Hernandez to CF because if his offense is no better than Duran's at least his presence drastically improves the defense, or if Hernandez improves at SS they can put Rafaela in CF to improve the outfield defense as the thought of Duran in between Yoshida and Verdugo in the outfield is kind of scary. I figure that's the path the Sox will go down if Duvall is out a significant amount of time which I suspect he is. It's a damn shame. Dor the Sox lineup to really stand out over the long term it needs the balance of Yoshida and Casas emerging, and they need a Renfroe-like performance out of Duvall and Story to return to what he once was. Because without those things, facing better pitching staffs, it'll be harder for them to generate offense. What they need at this point, given that they won't have any real RH thump added anywhere except for a platoon bat from Dalbec, they really could use Duran finally living up to his promise, hit well from the leadoff spot and be a stolen base terror on the base paths.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 10, 2023 7:27:00 GMT -5
Why is nobody willing to give Tapia some time in CF? Heâs for sure a good hitter and better than Chang. Is it more of hating Kiké at SS defensively? Tapia is a decent hitter but a mediocre offensive player. His OPS+ will be below 100 or probably below 90. My guess is once they get through the string of lefties they face we'll see Duran called up and given his final chance to make it or break it. I don't think there will be anything fancy done to replace Duvall. My guess is Hernandez will remain at SS. I doubt they pull the plug so quickly. Besides it's not like they really have anybody really ready to step in. Instead of moving Yoshida to DH and Turner to 1b against lefties, we will probably see Yoshida remain in LF and Turner stay at DH and Verdugo will renain in RF. We will probably see a Duran/Refsnyder platoon in CF and a Casas/Dalbec platoon at 1b. Maybe Brasier will finally get released to make room for Duran. If Duran succeeds and hits the way he needs to hit they can lead him off and drop Verdugo toward the middle of the order as the loss of Duvall really thins the lineup, especially from the right side of the plate. If Duran fails to hit and is unplayable in CF then we probably see Tapia get some run but that's less than ideal. He's good as a 4th OF but not so good as a semi-regular. If the defense becomes untenable which is quite possible/probable, the extra couple of months of giving Duran a chance gives Rafaela more experience in the minors. Of course by then Mondesi might be ready to come back and play SS and move Hernandez back to CF. And if the always injured Mondesi isn't ready and Duran has failed and Hernandez's defense at SS is still bad, they could consider calling up Rafaela and plug him into SS and move Hernandez to CF because if his offense is no better than Duran's at least his presence drastically improves the defense, or if Hernandez improves at SS they can put Rafaela in CF to improve the outfield defense as the thought of Duran in between Yoshida and Verdugo in the outfield is kind of scary. I figure that's the path the Sox will go down if Duvall is out a significant amount of time which I suspect he is. It's a damn shame. Dor the Sox lineup to really stand out over the long term it needs the balance of Yoshida and Casas emerging, and they need a Renfroe-like performance out of Duvall and Story to return to what he once was. Because without those things, facing better pitching staffs, it'll be harder for them to generate offense. What they need at this point, given that they won't have any real RH thump added anywhere except for a platoon bat from Dalbec, they really could use Duran finally living up to his promise, hit well from the leadoff spot and be a stolen base terror on the base paths. How does releasing Brasier create room for Duran? If Duvall is out that let’s them call up one guy. But your scenario has both Dalbec and Duran up, so you’re saying they’d go 5 man bench and a man short in the pen? I really doubt they’d do that for any extended period.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 10, 2023 8:18:52 GMT -5
I think the counter move for Whitlock will be Crawford to Worcester to keep him stretched out as a starter.
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 10, 2023 10:21:49 GMT -5
Very weird.......I was more optimistic about this team after they were swept by Pittsburgh than I am currently following the Duvall injury and them sweeping Detroit
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2023 11:01:47 GMT -5
Tapia is a decent hitter but a mediocre offensive player. His OPS+ will be below 100 or probably below 90. My guess is once they get through the string of lefties they face we'll see Duran called up and given his final chance to make it or break it. I don't think there will be anything fancy done to replace Duvall. My guess is Hernandez will remain at SS. I doubt they pull the plug so quickly. Besides it's not like they really have anybody really ready to step in. Instead of moving Yoshida to DH and Turner to 1b against lefties, we will probably see Yoshida remain in LF and Turner stay at DH and Verdugo will renain in RF. We will probably see a Duran/Refsnyder platoon in CF and a Casas/Dalbec platoon at 1b. Maybe Brasier will finally get released to make room for Duran. If Duran succeeds and hits the way he needs to hit they can lead him off and drop Verdugo toward the middle of the order as the loss of Duvall really thins the lineup, especially from the right side of the plate. If Duran fails to hit and is unplayable in CF then we probably see Tapia get some run but that's less than ideal. He's good as a 4th OF but not so good as a semi-regular. If the defense becomes untenable which is quite possible/probable, the extra couple of months of giving Duran a chance gives Rafaela more experience in the minors. Of course by then Mondesi might be ready to come back and play SS and move Hernandez back to CF. And if the always injured Mondesi isn't ready and Duran has failed and Hernandez's defense at SS is still bad, they could consider calling up Rafaela and plug him into SS and move Hernandez to CF because if his offense is no better than Duran's at least his presence drastically improves the defense, or if Hernandez improves at SS they can put Rafaela in CF to improve the outfield defense as the thought of Duran in between Yoshida and Verdugo in the outfield is kind of scary. I figure that's the path the Sox will go down if Duvall is out a significant amount of time which I suspect he is. It's a damn shame. Dor the Sox lineup to really stand out over the long term it needs the balance of Yoshida and Casas emerging, and they need a Renfroe-like performance out of Duvall and Story to return to what he once was. Because without those things, facing better pitching staffs, it'll be harder for them to generate offense. What they need at this point, given that they won't have any real RH thump added anywhere except for a platoon bat from Dalbec, they really could use Duran finally living up to his promise, hit well from the leadoff spot and be a stolen base terror on the base paths. How does releasing Brasier create room for Duran? If Duvall is out that let’s them call up one guy. But your scenario has both Dalbec and Duran up, so you’re saying they’d go 5 man bench and a man short in the pen? I really doubt they’d do that for any extended period. A five man bench, 9 regulars, 5 starters plus 7 guys in the pen, most of them who can pitch multiple innings. I assume they get Bello, whitlock, and maybe Paxton back down the road. They'll have Houck back in the pen. They have Winchowski, and assuming injuries of some sort I'd expect Crawford to be in the pen at some point. They have a lot of multi inning guys there. They dont need a one inning mopup man.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 10, 2023 11:20:10 GMT -5
How does releasing Brasier create room for Duran? If Duvall is out that letâs them call up one guy. But your scenario has both Dalbec and Duran up, so youâre saying theyâd go 5 man bench and a man short in the pen? I really doubt theyâd do that for any extended period. A five man bench, 9 regulars, 5 starters plus 7 guys in the pen, most of them who can pitch multiple innings. I assume they get Bello, whitlock, and maybe Paxton back down the road. They'll have Houck back in the pen. They have Winchowski, and assuming injuries of some sort I'd expect Crawford to be in the pen at some point. They have a lot of multi inning guys there. They dont need a one inning mopup man. Fair enough, I guess I just see it shaking out differently. I'm thinking Crawford goes to AAA to keep starting and Winck might too, and with the starters not pitching deep I think you want to keep 8 arms in the pen, and I guess I don't see a ton of added value in having both Duran and Tapia on the roster. I'm thinking against lefties you have Kiké in center, Chang at short, Refsnyder at one of LF/RF/DH, maybe Dalbec at 1B/3B/DH. Against righties you have Tapia in center, Kiké/Arroyo at SS/2B. If Tapia struggles or Duran is awesome in AAA maybe you bring him up at that point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2023 11:26:36 GMT -5
A five man bench, 9 regulars, 5 starters plus 7 guys in the pen, most of them who can pitch multiple innings. I assume they get Bello, whitlock, and maybe Paxton back down the road. They'll have Houck back in the pen. They have Winchowski, and assuming injuries of some sort I'd expect Crawford to be in the pen at some point. They have a lot of multi inning guys there. They dont need a one inning mopup man. Fair enough, I guess I just see it shaking out differently. I'm thinking Crawford goes to AAA to keep starting and Winck might too, and with the starters not pitching deep I think you want to keep 8 arms in the pen, and I guess I don't see a ton of added value in having both Duran and Tapia on the roster. I'm thinking against lefties you have Kiké in center, Chang at short, Refsnyder at one of LF/RF/DH, maybe Dalbec at 1B/3B/DH. Against righties you have Tapia in center, Kiké/Arroyo at SS/2B. If Tapia struggles or Duran is awesome in AAA maybe you bring him up at that point. I guess if you dont find out about Duran one way or another now or soon after the string of lefties, then when? If he's like their 3rd or 4th option then he has no future in the organization.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 10, 2023 11:55:29 GMT -5
Fair enough, I guess I just see it shaking out differently. I'm thinking Crawford goes to AAA to keep starting and Winck might too, and with the starters not pitching deep I think you want to keep 8 arms in the pen, and I guess I don't see a ton of added value in having both Duran and Tapia on the roster. I'm thinking against lefties you have Kiké in center, Chang at short, Refsnyder at one of LF/RF/DH, maybe Dalbec at 1B/3B/DH. Against righties you have Tapia in center, Kiké/Arroyo at SS/2B. If Tapia struggles or Duran is awesome in AAA maybe you bring him up at that point. I guess if you dont find out about Duran one way or another now or soon after the string of lefties, then when? If he's like their 3rd or 4th option then he has no future in the organization. Yeah I definitely get that, I just think it's a tough spot where he and Tapia are duplicative, and I don't think they'll want to go to a 5 man bench yet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2023 13:20:48 GMT -5
The fact that Dalbec is coming up if Duvall goes on the IL and not Duran seems to suggest that Kiké playing more CF is the idea,but they also might figure that Refsnyder/Tapia, with some more Kiké in the outfield, still sufficiently covers those positions and Dalbec helps them more right now as a bench bat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2023 13:22:56 GMT -5
I guess if you dont find out about Duran one way or another now or soon after the string of lefties, then when? If he's like their 3rd or 4th option then he has no future in the organization. Yeah I definitely get that, I just think it's a tough spot where he and Tapia are duplicative, and I don't think they'll want to go to a 5 man bench yet. I can understand how they seem duplicative, but I think Duran has a ceiling Tapia doesn't possess while Tapia has a higher floor that Duran has failed to reach thus far, so i see them as different. At his dreamiest best Duran is a .270 hitting 15 - 20 HR guy who could swipe 50. He might also hit .210 and whiff 30% of the time, fail to hit for power, and run bases in a way that makes you wish he wouldn't. Then there's the defense. Tapia is a steadier mediocrity. Maybe at his best he can hit a powerless. 280, steal 20 bases and hold his own while being a bit below average offensively, maybe a 95 OPS plus guy who is probably a 80 OPS plus guy at his worst while Duran's ranges are much higher/lower and of course his defense makes that even more so. Ideally Duran is the high flying sparkplug playing most every day while Tapia comes off the bench as a PH/PR/defensive sub. All benches could use a LH PH in reserve. Even if Duran starts and is PH for by Refsnyder in the 7th its good to have Tapia around for the 9th to PH if the handedness of the pitcher changes which happens often with 7/8 man bullpens.
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