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Half Way Into the Season With Half Way to Go
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Post by Guidas on Jun 29, 2023 9:05:26 GMT -5
And here we are at the true half-way mark with the Sox 40-41 and 4 game out of the last Wild Card. What do all y'all think? I'll go first since I'm starting this thread. Despite my criticism of Bloom and the Front Office in the last couple years, I still think this team has a chance to gel and make a run. I hope they put one together and are buyers at the deadline. But to get there, they have to fix a couple holes now - SS defense and a couple non-hitters in the line-up - now: 1) Infield defense, especially SS and Second. Specifically: Based on outs above average, the Sox have had the fifth-worst defense at shortstop and are second worst at second base.
In terms of traditional statistics, the Sox have committed 27 errors at those two positions, the most in the league. The Pirates have 22.My solution is to send Hamilton down and bring up Rafaela immediately. His charge will be to lock down the position until Chang is fully healthy or Story is ready. Tell him this is all about defense. If you hit, great, but your job is to settle down the infield. Then put Arroyo or Kiké at Second and make a decision with the guy left out - my preference is to either trade or DFA him. Duran is your CF, Yoshida is your LF. An ideal alignment would be Kiké in CF, Duran (and maybe Duvall vs. LHP) in LF and Yoshida as your DH, but there's Turner, who has been productive. So one of Arroyo or Kiké should either be a bench player or moved. 2. They need a starter. Duh. The bullpen games are... well, bullpen games, and virtually a guaranteed loss in any of two ways: It's a W in the books, but they've burned out the bullpen, and someone has to go down and sub-standard arm or two has to come up; or, all of that and it's an L in the books. Not sure what Houck's timeline is, but if they don't see him wanting to pitch with a faceplate soon after the All Star break, then go get an arm. This is a trade deadline move if Houck can't go, and Sale looks like he's not til Sept or later. 3. The Duvall black hole. Amazing first 8 games. Since then, he's been sub-replacement level and shows no signs of returning to career averages. His numbers since returning are brutal, and he's had more PAs than he had all the spring to get his timing back. If he's in the order, he should probably be batting 8th or 9th. My preference would be to either mandate to Cora that he only plays vs. lefties and only in LF or move him off the roster, either by a trade - if anyone wants him - or DFA. 4. And these are minor: A) Get a defensive first baseman for late innings in games where the Sox are close or ahead. Casas has shown us Kevin Millar-level first base skills (if that) in too many instances. It's cost them games, especially late. Find a AAA wizard with the glove and stick him on the bench for just that. B) Winckowski in June is not the Winckowski we saw in April-May. He's the Winckowski we saw last year. They either need to fix that or find another 7th-8th inning guy. This could be internal, as Rodriguez could be ready soon. c) Can they do a PowerPoint or a puppet show or interpretive dance for Devers on what the strike zone is vs. what it isn't? OK, I'm being glib here, but the guy's been in the league 6+ years. He's had long streaks where he actually seems to get it, but this year he looks like he did in 2020. I wish there were a solution, especially because he does know better. Pedroia has become renowned as sort of a batting/approach guru, and Devers respects him. Maybe fly him in for a couple days to work with Rafi. I'm grasping at straws, but he's the only player on the team (except maybe a healthy Sale) who projects as a 60-level player. As he goes, the offense seems to go. He needs to own that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 29, 2023 10:02:14 GMT -5
Thoughtful post. Some thoughts re; your points:
IF Defense - I also really want them to fix the short stop problem but I'm not sure I'd do it by bringing Rafaela up. More interested in trying Sogard first honestly or trying to swing a back of the 40 trade for someone who can play decent defense. Hopefully Chang and/or Reyes is back soon too. Casas has also been terrible but I think they need to stick it out with him and get him better, I think he's certainly capable.
5th Starter - Personally I would go Pivetta there. I don't mind he and Walter and other waiver wire spaghetti getting a couple starts a piece with longer than usual stints from the bullpen until Houck gets back. Wouldn't mind adding another guy but there's not a lot of obvious trades.
Duvall - I think he's already trending the right direction, if you look at his Savant page the rolling xwOBA has been trending up since bottoming out on the 24th. Matches my eye test that he's been hitting it better. He has a long history of being average or better, I think he'll get there. That said, with Kiké being best in center, Refsnyder destroying lefties, and Duran emerging he is a little duplicative, I wouldn't hate a trade if they get something of value.
I also think they can go on a run, the best thing that could happen for that to me would be Devers and Yoshida heating up.
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Post by manfred on Jun 29, 2023 10:29:40 GMT -5
Fangraphs has them at 13% chance of playoffs. Baseball Reference at 5%.
I’d give them about two weeks to have a burst that ups those odds, and if they are still what they are, it’d be time to make plans to pull the plug. See what you can get for Duvall, Turner, Paxton, Jensen, and listen on most anyone else.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2023 10:50:07 GMT -5
Fangraphs has them at 13% chance of playoffs. Baseball Reference at 5%. I’d give them about two weeks to have a burst that ups those odds, and if they are still what they are, it’d be time to make plans to pull the plug. See what you can get for Duvall, Turner, Paxton, Jensen, and listen on most anyone else. As I know has been said a decent amount, their schedule is pretty light the 30 days or so after the all star break (Cubs, A's, Mets, Royals, Tigers, Nats)... but unfortunately if they get destroyed by Toronto and Texas over the next week that might not matter. (And it's not like they've taken advantage of playing bad teams so far anyway...) It's a weird thing to say, but the margin between feeling okay about the season so far and feeling annoyed is like probably just a couple games? Like if they had 43 wins (same as the Astros) instead of 40 we're a .5 game out of the WC. Unlike last year around this time where the coulda-shoulda-been-wins were all blown by the bullpen - at least now if we have a lead in the 8th inning I feel mostly good about it.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 29, 2023 11:32:57 GMT -5
Is Niko Goodrum no longer viewed as an option at SS? The guy has played all over and is hitting well at AAA. What am I missing??
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Post by soxfansince54 on Jun 29, 2023 12:32:23 GMT -5
I was wondering how teams in our division fared when they returned home from a road trip, this what i found.
Team Win Loss
Balt 3 3 Ny 3 3 Tb 5 1 Tor 4 2 Bos 1 5
What is the problem? Family? I was going to do all the teams, but i figured on just doing our Div.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,075
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Post by cdj on Jun 29, 2023 13:20:26 GMT -5
It’s been a tale of two seasons so far
We couldn’t get anything from our SP and mashed
Then
We got great starting pitching and forgot how to hit
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Post by Guidas on Jun 29, 2023 13:24:54 GMT -5
I was wondering how teams in our division fared when they returned home from a road trip, this what i found. Team Win Loss Balt 3 3 Ny 3 3 Tb 5 1 Tor 4 2 Bos 1 5 What is the problem? Family? I was going to do all the teams, but i figured on just doing our Div. Well, and that you've surveyed very small sample period with a single variate data point (i.e. home record after a roadtrip) which doesn't account for strength of schedule, injuries, trendlines in player performance, etc.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 29, 2023 13:26:04 GMT -5
Fangraphs has them at 13% chance of playoffs. Baseball Reference at 5%. I’d give them about two weeks to have a burst that ups those odds, and if they are still what they are, it’d be time to make plans to pull the plug. See what you can get for Duvall, Turner, Paxton, Jensen, and listen on most anyone else. As I know has been said a decent amount, their schedule is pretty light the 30 days or so after the all star break (Cubs, A's, Mets, Royals, Tigers, Nats)... but unfortunately if they get destroyed by Toronto and Texas over the next week that might not matter. (And it's not like they've taken advantage of playing bad teams so far anyway...) It's a weird thing to say, but the margin between feeling okay about the season so far and feeling annoyed is like probably just a couple games? Like if they had 43 wins (same as the Astros) instead of 40 we're a .5 game out of the WC. Unlike last year around this time where the coulda-shoulda-been-wins were all blown by the bullpen - at least now if we have a lead in the 8th inning I feel mostly good about it. This year has coulda-should wins that have been blown by defense, too.
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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jun 29, 2023 16:47:25 GMT -5
Can't consistently win without up the middle defense. SS & 2B currently untenable. Record is not going to improve without shoring up these two positions.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2023 17:45:21 GMT -5
My projection was 88 wins and they're 4 wins off the pace for that. My diagnosis:
-SS being cursed -Devers having an off year
Beyond that, there have been some positives (Verdugo, Duran, Duvall, etc.) and negatives (Kluber, Pivetta, bullpen injuries, etc.), but it all kinda cancels out. It's SS and 3B that seem like more than a couple standard deviations from any reasonable expectation. Whereas I don't think they've had any *huge* surprises in the positive direction, other than maybe Duran.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2023 20:00:19 GMT -5
At the beginning of the year I picked them to finish at .500.
And that's kind of where they're at it they were a couple of games ago.
Maybe it's a .500 team thing but you can see a good team....and you can see a cellar dweller.
The one pause I have in blowing it up is that if the Sox got into a post season series they could theoretically start Sale, Bello, and Paxton, and I'd take my chances with those 3. Get Story back and the wish is he stabilizes SS and provides RH hitting thump.
But that is such a tenuous scenario. By the time Sale and Story return, assuming they come back well, the team that could wreak havoc for other teams in the postseason, could very likely be in a scenario where they have virtually little chance to even make the playoffs.
It's obvious they need to shake a glove tree, get a SS that can actually play SS and get a late inning defensive 1b who can also provide a LH bat off the bench.
Duvall could be useful if spotted correctly but they're playing him every day and messing with Duran in the process.
The offense lacks a true impact powet bat to go with Devers who hasn't been great. Verdugo and Yoshida are good table setters, and Turner is solid, but the offense isnt very deep or scary.
The team defense is bad.
The rotation is brittle and at the moment has 3 functional starters.
The pen is ok, but not great. Jansen has been disappointing since getting his 400th save and Winckowski is coming back down to earth.
They're in a weird scenario where they could be good but are very relentlessly mediocre.
At some point you are what your record says you are.
It's disappointing. I'm very thankful and appreciative for the 4 championships but if I were merely satisfied with just being able to see one, and I waited 24 years to see one, which isnt awful compares to others, then I would have stopped watching or caring after 2004.
I'm good with building up the farm system, but with a 200 plus million payroll I would expect the Sox to be better than a sub .500 last place team, which is what they're shaping up to be for the 3rd time in 4 years.
I agree with Manfred's point about the inability to cash in on their assets that they've let walk away and failure to add even more to their farm system. Maybe if they had, they'd have a top 10 system rather than a middling one.
I have trouble believing that if this continues the rest of the season and the park is empty with the team way out if it, that there wont be repercussions.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 29, 2023 20:52:47 GMT -5
Can't consistently win without up the middle defense. SS & 2B currently untenable. Record is not going to improve without shoring up these two positions. The second base question is a good one, still a year away from Mayer. My guess is Bloom tries to find a stop gap.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 29, 2023 21:20:14 GMT -5
My projection was 88 wins and they're 4 wins off the pace for that. My diagnosis: -SS being cursed -Devers having an off year Beyond that, there have been some positives (Verdugo, Duran, Duvall, etc.) and negatives (Kluber, Pivetta, bullpen injuries, etc.), but it all kinda cancels out. It's SS and 3B that seem like more than a couple standard deviations from any reasonable expectation. Whereas I don't think they've had any *huge* surprises in the positive direction, other than maybe Duran. Duvall literally was amazing for a week and a day. Now he’s losing fWAR weekly and is down to 0.6. Duran has been a surprise, but Cora’s insistence to play Duvall over him vs. RHP is hurting the team and probably jerking his development around. I agree with you in the mean, though - wacky year with bad sequencing all around.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 29, 2023 22:02:24 GMT -5
Why bring up Rafaela this year and start his clock? I don't see how the Sox get back in the playoff race with or without him. He just got to AAA, too.
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Post by cheers on Jun 29, 2023 22:06:34 GMT -5
Why bring up Rafaela this year and start his clock? I don't see how the Sox get back in the playoff race with or without him. He just got to AAA, too. "The clock" is a concern if you've got a guy that you think is gonna be Bryce Harper or Mookie Betts. Rafaela isn't that guy - I'd love to be super wrong. I'm hoping he can be 2021 Kiké - which makes the clock really not an issue.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 29, 2023 22:51:31 GMT -5
Well, all I know is that reading various websites, that Henry is upset, Bloom is upset, Cora is upset, and Verdugo is upset.
What is all of this "upset" going to result in?
To provide my views to the original question in this thread - since I picked the Sox to win 79 games, nothing I am seeing is surprising me in general. I am surprised when I read comments that the offense is not a problem, because it is very much clearly a problem - at the moment, THE problem. So I saw a roughly .500 team - but didn't see some of the ways that they've gotten there.
For every comment that this or that one is coming back, it is equally likely that they won't - or won't last long - or someone currently healthy will go down.
I wasn't crazy about the roster going into the season and feel even worse about it now.
I think the next set of games leading up to the AS break may tell us a few things. But my current thought is that my original estimate of 79 games may be high.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 30, 2023 7:10:11 GMT -5
One anecdotal observation so far: The new schedule, which so many thought would be beneficial, is actually killing the Sox with these NL teams from all divisions beating up on them.
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Post by costpet on Jun 30, 2023 7:18:22 GMT -5
This team has no life. They're playing like it's September and just playing out the string. How do you lose 3 in a row against Miami at home? It's almost like they don't care. If they don't care, why should I? Another lost season. Blah.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2023 7:38:41 GMT -5
One anecdotal observation so far: The new schedule, which so many thought would be beneficial, is actually killing the Sox with these NL teams from all divisions beating up on them. It's a bit uncanny how they keep running into those NL teams right when they're at their hottest. Excluding the games they played against the Red Sox (so as to exclude the possibility that they were hot because they were playing the Red Sox) the Pirates were in the midst of a 17-8 start to their season; the Cardinals were on an 8-3 run; the Reds have gone 20-8 since the series before they played Boston; and the Marlins had gone 20-8 before facing the Red Sox. In fact the Braves had gone 7-2 before facing the Red Sox and Arizona was in the middle of a 20-5 run when they faced the Red Sox, but Boston split against the Braves and won the series with the Diamondbacks.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 30, 2023 7:59:07 GMT -5
Halfway into the season and I found myself checking out the 2024 MLB Draft prospects this morning so that probably tells you a little bit about how I'm feeling about the Sox chances in the 2nd half. That being said I pegged them for about 85 wins this year so I guess they're doing slightly below what I had figured but still within the standard deviation I had expected so to speak.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Jun 30, 2023 8:27:29 GMT -5
Not feeling great about my 93 win prediction...
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 30, 2023 8:27:52 GMT -5
This team has no life. They're playing like it's September and just playing out the string. How do you lose 3 in a row against Miami at home? It's almost like they don't care. If they don't care, why should I? Another lost season. Blah. I hate this. Miami is 48-34 and of the three starters they used in the series, the 2022 Cy Young winner is having the worst season. The Red Sox defense and roster construction issues are real and should be criticized. Using limited financial resources a boom/bust reclamation project like Kluber instead of an innings eater to a staff that already had Chris Sale and James Paxton was very, very stupid. If Chaim Bloom got fired today, like within the hour, I don't think anyone would be shocked. It's not a good enough roster and he's had enough time to be responsible for that. But losing games to a Marlins team that is clearly better than them isn't an effort thing. It is 100% my pet peeve when people immediately write off bad playing to bad effort. Jarren Duran is probably the best example of this, he plays a bad outfield at 100 miles an hour. It's not at all an effort thing, it's that trying hard hasn't yet made him good at it. This team is playing hard, they just have huge holes that no amount of hustle is going to overcome.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 30, 2023 8:31:53 GMT -5
This team has no life. They're playing like it's September and just playing out the string. How do you lose 3 in a row against Miami at home? It's almost like they don't care. If they don't care, why should I? Another lost season. Blah. I hate this. Miami is 48-34 and of the three starters they used in the series, the 2022 Cy Young winner is having the worst season. The Red Sox defense and roster construction issues are real and should be criticized. Using limited financial resources a boom/bust reclamation project like Kluber instead of an innings eater to a staff that already had Chris Sale and James Paxton was very, very stupid. If Chaim Bloom got fired today, like within the hour, I don't think anyone would be shocked. It's not a good enough roster and he's had enough time to be responsible for that. But losing games to a Marlins team that is clearly better than them isn't an effort thing. It is 100% my pet peeve when people immediately write off bad playing to bad effort. Jarren Duran is probably the best example of this, he plays a bad outfield at 100 miles an hour. It's not at all an effort thing, it's that trying hard hasn't yet made him good at it. This team is playing hard, they just have huge holes that no amount of hustle is going to overcome. The Kluber complaint is weird, how was he a reclamation project? He was coming off a 3 win season where he threw 165 innings and barely walked anyone. I mean he’s old, so that was obviously a concern, and it’s fair to judge in hindsight and say it’s the GMs job to pick good players, but for $10M you can’t get a guaranteed perfect player.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2023 8:48:30 GMT -5
This team has no life. They're playing like it's September and just playing out the string. How do you lose 3 in a row against Miami at home? It's almost like they don't care. If they don't care, why should I? Another lost season. Blah. I hate this. Miami is 48-34 and of the three starters they used in the series, the 2022 Cy Young winner is having the worst season. The Red Sox defense and roster construction issues are real and should be criticized. Using limited financial resources a boom/bust reclamation project like Kluber instead of an innings eater to a staff that already had Chris Sale and James Paxton was very, very stupid. If Chaim Bloom got fired today, like within the hour, I don't think anyone would be shocked. It's not a good enough roster and he's had enough time to be responsible for that. But losing games to a Marlins team that is clearly better than them isn't an effort thing. It is 100% my pet peeve when people immediately write off bad playing to bad effort. Jarren Duran is probably the best example of this, he plays a bad outfield at 100 miles an hour. It's not at all an effort thing, it's that trying hard hasn't yet made him good at it. This team is playing hard, they just have huge holes that no amount of hustle is going to overcome. Well here's a unique complaint... and I don't understand it at all. First, Kluber was like their Plan D after Eovaldi, Eflin, and Heaney all turned down the Red Sox' putting the best offer on the table. Second, Kluber had a dodgy health history, but that hasn't been the problem with him this season. I think he was generally regarded as a high-floor/low-ceiling type option - the opposite of a boom/bust type. Third, they had Pivetta as the innings eater, but his underperformance goes to show that being an innings eater is not a guarantee of adequate performance (or good health, for that matter). Fourth, the rotation has turned out to be pretty good, following the limited depth in the early season when Whitlock, Bello, and Paxton were all on the IL. If Houck doesn't get in the face with a line drive they look very solid top to bottom. Fifth, just conceptually I don't think there's anything wrong with having several boom/bust types, provided you have enough of them. If it works out with just one or two of Paxton, Sale, and Kluber, that's enough; and that's more or less how it's gone.
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