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7/17-7/19 Red Sox @ Athletics Series Thread
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Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2023 13:44:48 GMT -5
For a team that’s the worst in baseball, the A’s are kind of intriguing. How are people feeling about the Red Sox having drafted Nick Yorke ahead of Tyler Soderstrom? I don’t have strong thoughts on him vs Yorke but Soderstrom definitely feels rushed to the majors with a service time clock started 1 or 1.5 years too soon. He hasn’t been an above average hitter by wRC+ standards since A+, was merely average in AA last year, and below average in AAA (but hitting for lots of power) before his call up. Jury is definitely out on him being any better long term compared to Yorke without even considering that Yorke saved the Red Sox bonus money while Soderstrom cost the As extra $.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2023 14:00:45 GMT -5
Just to put the season series into context the Red Sox won 4/6 games against the A's. The A's have a .273 winning percentage, meaning in any given 6 games against an average opponent they should win 1.656 games (meaning more often than not they'll win 2). Against a .552 opponent (current proxy for 3rd wild card) they should win ~1.5 games. So taking 4/6 against them is basically exactly what you should expect to happen if the A's are as bad as they are and the Red Sox are a third wild card team.
Point is - it's disappointing that they didn't win the other two games because it's a good opportunity to play a weak opponent, but the overall result in 6 games against them basically tells us nothing new about the team's quality.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2023 14:31:32 GMT -5
Another Wharton Moneyball podcast excerpt, this one with Mike Petriello where they talk about stats gathering at MLB, what new stats they'll be offering with StatsCast (tracking bat speed, that is the speed of a player's swing, was one he was excited about), and why MLB does not provide certain stats to the public that are available to teams. A bunch more stuff - three of the four hosts are huge baseball fans (two NYY fans, one Sox fan who was, sadly, absent. The three of them have done academic studies and papers on baseball and other sports. The fourth, Cade Massey, is the co-creator the of the Massey-Peabody football predictive model, and was the most inquisitive of the three because his baseball knowledge is less than the others.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2023 14:45:42 GMT -5
For a team that’s the worst in baseball, the A’s are kind of intriguing. How are people feeling about the Red Sox having drafted Nick Yorke ahead of Tyler Soderstrom? I am OUTRAGED that the Red Sox didn't make what would in retrospect prove to be the most optimal selection in every round in every draft. I am MOLLIFIED by the fact that about a dozen teams that picked in front of the Red Sox made a worse selection than Nick Yorke, plus we got Blaze Jordan in the bargain.
Nick Yorke .269 .351 .438 .789 Below-average defender at one position. Blaze Jordan 15th ranked Sox Prospect who has the likely projection of a cup of coffee guy. Pete Crow Armstrong* .283 .359 .506 .865 Plus defender I don't see how Blaze Jordan, future org guy, is a "plus we got." *Will not let this go until Nick Yorke proves he's a better player at the MLB-level, esp when the "Look who we got with our below slot savings guy!" will more than likely be no more than a bat-only cup-of-coffee dude. Then Mr. Bloom can say he drafted better than what I advised him to do and I will say I was sadly, dejectedly and foolishly wrong. All that and they probably could've gotten Yorke later and the dollars would've still evened out.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2023 14:51:55 GMT -5
I am OUTRAGED that the Red Sox didn't make what would in retrospect prove to be the most optimal selection in every round in every draft. I am MOLLIFIED by the fact that about a dozen teams that picked in front of the Red Sox made a worse selection than Nick Yorke, plus we got Blaze Jordan in the bargain.
Nick Yorke .269 .351 .438 .789 Below-average defender at one position. Blaze Jordan 15th ranked Sox Prospect who has the likely projection of a cup of coffee guy. Pete Crow Armstrong* .283 .359 .506 .865 Plus defender I don't see how Blaze Jordan, future org guy, is a "plus we got." *Will not let this go until Nick Yorke proves he's a better player at the MLB-level, esp when the "Look who we got with our below slot savings guy!" will more than likely be no more than a bat-only cup-of-coffee dude. Then Mr. Bloom can say he drafted better than what I advised him to do and I will say I was sadly, dejectedly and foolishly wrong. All that and they probably could've gotten Yorke later and the dollars would've still evened out. I've disagreed with this line of thinking pretty heavily in the past, still do, but I am pretty sure the last sentence has been "proven" to be objectively incorrect by the retrospective reporting that there were teams on Yorke in the early/mid second.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2023 15:12:27 GMT -5
I am OUTRAGED that the Red Sox didn't make what would in retrospect prove to be the most optimal selection in every round in every draft. I am MOLLIFIED by the fact that about a dozen teams that picked in front of the Red Sox made a worse selection than Nick Yorke, plus we got Blaze Jordan in the bargain.
Nick Yorke .269 .351 .438 .789 Below-average defender at one position. Blaze Jordan 15th ranked Sox Prospect who has the likely projection of a cup of coffee guy. Pete Crow Armstrong* .283 .359 .506 .865 Plus defender I don't see how Blaze Jordan, future org guy, is a "plus we got." *Will not let this go until Nick Yorke proves he's a better player at the MLB-level, esp when the "Look who we got with our below slot savings guy!" will more than likely be no more than a bat-only cup-of-coffee dude. Then Mr. Bloom can say he drafted better than what I advised him to do and I will say I was sadly, dejectedly and foolishly wrong. All that and they probably could've gotten Yorke later and the dollars would've still evened out. I'm begging you: please let this go. Or as a compromise: how about at least waiting until you've been proven right before repeatedly bringing up how right you were about this?
In the meantime, it's just obtuse to call Blaze Jordan a "future org guy." I'm not even that high on him, but come on.
You've made it clear many, many times that you place zero value on prospects outside the top 5 or 10 or whatever. So you can crow about how you could have told Bloom that Jordan is worthless; but you also would have gladly traded away Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, and Wong - or never acquired them in the first place. And maybe you would've traded Bello, Duran, and Rafaela in 2019 when they were in the 15-20 range. Or Devers in 2014 when he was in that range. Or Mookie Betts, or Xander Bogaerts, or Jackie Bradley...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2023 15:15:09 GMT -5
Nick Yorke .269 .351 .438 .789 Below-average defender at one position. Blaze Jordan 15th ranked Sox Prospect who has the likely projection of a cup of coffee guy. Pete Crow Armstrong* .283 .359 .506 .865 Plus defender I don't see how Blaze Jordan, future org guy, is a "plus we got." *Will not let this go until Nick Yorke proves he's a better player at the MLB-level, esp when the "Look who we got with our below slot savings guy!" will more than likely be no more than a bat-only cup-of-coffee dude. Then Mr. Bloom can say he drafted better than what I advised him to do and I will say I was sadly, dejectedly and foolishly wrong. All that and they probably could've gotten Yorke later and the dollars would've still evened out. I'm begging you: please let this go. Or as a compromise: how about at least waiting until you've been proven right before repeatedly bringing up how right you were about this?
In the meantime, it's just obtuse to call Blaze Jordan a "future org guy." I'm not even that high on him, but come on. You've made it clear many, many times that you place zero value on prospects outside the top 5 or 10 or whatever. So you can crow about how you could have told Bloom that Jordan is worthless; but you also would have gladly traded away Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, and Wong - or never acquired them in the first place. And maybe you would've traded Bello, Duran, and Rafaela in 2019 when they were in the 15-20 range. Or Devers in 2014 when he was in that range. Or Mookie Betts, or Xander Bogaerts, or Jackie Bradley...
It's not that I don't value them. I read the projections on the site. I love when a guy overachieves and defies the analytics and predictive odds. But those predictive odds are still right the vast majority of the time.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2023 15:23:50 GMT -5
I'm begging you: please let this go. Or as a compromise: how about at least waiting until you've been proven right before repeatedly bringing up how right you were about this?
In the meantime, it's just obtuse to call Blaze Jordan a "future org guy." I'm not even that high on him, but come on. You've made it clear many, many times that you place zero value on prospects outside the top 5 or 10 or whatever. So you can crow about how you could have told Bloom that Jordan is worthless; but you also would have gladly traded away Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, and Wong - or never acquired them in the first place. And maybe you would've traded Bello, Duran, and Rafaela in 2019 when they were in the 15-20 range. Or Devers in 2014 when he was in that range. Or Mookie Betts, or Xander Bogaerts, or Jackie Bradley...
It's not that I don't value them. I read the projections on the site. I love when a guy overachieves and defies the analytics and predictive odds. But those predictive odds are still right the vast majority of the time. Citing the predictive odds is extremely ironic given that this incredibly, um, odd hyperfixation you have is with an MLB Draft pick, which is not exactly a high-odds proposition in itself. Granted you actually have an example of a player you'd have preferred at that spot as opposed to just complaining about the pick into the void but still, has it not occurred to you once to try to understand the pick and reconcile that within your mind as opposed to continually bring up these tangents? I mean you are more than welcome to do whatever you'd like with your life, but I feel like, given the option to do the thing that a rational and healthy adult would do and whatever it is you're doing, I'd probably take the former.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2023 15:44:33 GMT -5
We're getting a little too personal. Please remember to criticize the idea and not the person. Let's move on.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2023 16:46:26 GMT -5
It's not that I don't value them. I read the projections on the site. I love when a guy overachieves and defies the analytics and predictive odds. But those predictive odds are still right the vast majority of the time. Citing the predictive odds is extremely ironic given that this incredibly, um, odd hyperfixation you have is with an MLB Draft pick, which is not exactly a high-odds proposition in itself. Granted you actually have an example of a player you'd have preferred at that spot as opposed to just complaining about the pick into the void but still, has it not occurred to you once to try to understand the pick and reconcile that within your mind as opposed to continually bring up these tangents? I mean you are more than welcome to do whatever you'd like with your life, but I feel like, given the option to do the thing that a rational and healthy adult would do and whatever it is you're doing, I'd probably take the former. Wait, now I have to be a healthy and rational adult when discussing... Sports Minutiae!? On this planet!? They don't even require this in the CCP! But OK, I won't mention PCA again on this board until: 1) He makes MLB 2) The Sox trade for him* and/or 3) He becomes better than Yorke in three-year MLB fWAR, or vice versa. *Really, really hoping for this scenario in a non-rational, non-healthy adult way.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 20, 2023 18:21:20 GMT -5
I think we all would take PCA knowing what we know now (and some of us would have taken him at the time, based just on the reports we read on scouting sites) but I can see Bloom's reasoning. He didn't have an R2 pick due to discipline leveled by MLB. So, he took Yorke at $900,000 under slot and snagged Blazer at about $1M over slot. He was hedging his bets.
I say move Yorke around the diamond. If his bat keeps developing he could become a guy who gets into 100-110 games (including against all LH SP) and does some raking. That has value, especially with the Red Sox lineup looking like it's going to trend even more LH when the next crop hits The Show.
But for now, yeah, it looks like it would have been better to go in the PCA direction and there's nothing wrong with someone offering that opinion. It is, after all, a prospects site.
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