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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2013 8:59:09 GMT -5
I figure it's time to give one of my favorite prospects in the system an official thread.
As of 4/29, he's hitting .271/.419/.396/.815 as a 22-year-old in AA Portland. His walk and strikeout numbers are particularly excellent, with a 19.4% walk rate and a miniscule 8.1% strikeout rate. He's also continued to flash the glove, throwing out 11 of 23 attempted basestealers (48%).
Vazquez is one of those guys sabermetrically-inclined guys like me geek out about. Any player who walks two-and-a-half times more than they strike out is pretty exciting, especially when you combine that with his plus defense behind the plate (especially in the two areas statheads typically geek out the most-- throwing out baserunners and framing pitches). That said, scouting looks have been less impressed with his bat, knocking him for his average bat speed and struggles driving pitches on the inner half of the plate.
Personally, I've been most impressed with his ability to limit strikeouts this season. As mentioned by others, walk rates in the minor leagues can be inflated because even Eastern League pitchers have troubles throwing strikes consistently, so any hitter with a patient (some might call it passive) approach at the plate can rack up walks that they might not get at the major league level. That said, only striking out 8.1% of the time is an elite number (even the best bat control artists typically fall short of that mark-- see Ichiro's career 9.3% K rate or Pedroia's career 8.8% K rate), and even if that number is almost certain to regress for Vazquez, if he continues to make solid contact at a good rate, he starts projecting as a major league starter for me.
Remember, we're not talking about Che-Hsuan Lin here-- Vazquez has typically maintained solid ISOs throughout his career, and he's racked up enough extra-base hits that I don't think it's a mirage. He won't be able to post a .400+ OBP at the major league level, but (and I'm wishcasting here) he could have the ceiling of someone like Yadier Molina, who, after he got called up to the majors as a 22-year-old in 2004, only hit .238/.291/.342 in his first three years, but eventually blossomed into one of the better catchers in the league.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 9:24:53 GMT -5
Great thread.
Spring training games are typically a little boring so when a player does something that not everyone does it makes you sit up and notice. Vazquez as you may remember made two ridiculous throws in a spring training game against the O's. Didn't look at smooth as Molina behind the dish but then again does anyone?
He then came up later in the game and to me his swing looked a bit long and he was completely undressed by I believe Pedro Strop. Seemed to have a lot of trouble with breaking pitches.
I'd love to see him this summer and I hope you have a chance to do the same. If you do please report to us what you see and if you are the social type what others see as well.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 29, 2013 10:08:03 GMT -5
I am no scout, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if his bat speed was average, that he'd have a harder time getting around on really good fastballs, especially on the inner half, as well as good breaking balls (assuming he doesn't have elite pitch recognition). This should be reflected in higher K rates, right? So what's going on with CVaz? Maybe just an SSS anomoly?
Regardless, it would seem he has a good chance to hit enough to be an everyday catcher.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 29, 2013 11:18:58 GMT -5
I'm all about some Christian Vazquez. He reportedly has it covered behind the plate and he's not an out machine at the plate. He's arguably the most likely catcher of the future in the org right now - Lavarnway is close but may not have to stuff to be a #1 catcher, while Swihart is farther away & could move off the position. The team seems to philosophically be swinging toward favoring defense-first catching.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 11:54:19 GMT -5
My inkling is that they are going to try to resign Saltalamachia unless someone offers him something outrageous because he's the only starting catcher on the market other than Pyrzynski who is a million years old.
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2013 12:10:55 GMT -5
Eh, there are some decent FA catchers next year. Brian McCann and Carlos Ruiz are the only probably starting options, but then you have guys like Jose Molina, Geovany Soto, Kelly Shoppach, and Yorvit Torrealba that are not terrible.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 29, 2013 12:31:02 GMT -5
Even as he's climbed the minor league stairs, Vazquez has trended downward on his K% and up upward on his BB%. That'd been quite consistent. Keep watching this space and I'll post a chart or two.
It's hard to know what that means for the future. I think also think this makes the scouting reports very important. This is a guy who seems to enjoy the workload and pushing himself. How that translates into improved bat speed, I have no idea. I did watch the one spring training game where he crushed a ball for a home run and he got around quite well. He has some power and he may develop more moving forward.
Something to keep in mind is that, ever since the breakout season in Greenville, the team has moved him very quickly. That meant 81 games in Salem and 20 in Portland last year. So only about a hundred games and quite a jump in the degree of difficulty. Hard to make a full assessment with that trajectory for that limited amount of playing time, though it's easy to understand why they've reacted like that. He is very talented defensively, and he's also very young. Push him but don't burn him out. He's valuable.
Now, we get a much better idea of what's going on. He's at a level that will probably be his semi-permanent address for the entire season. While he might actually see a call-up later in the year, that will either be very late season or on an up and down basis. So this is his home for now, and a very good place to evaluate him as a hitter. From what's been written, that's been emphasized as a developmental need and it's something he's working on.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 29, 2013 12:36:24 GMT -5
I've only seen Vazquez in Greenville, but each time he showed some surprising power. Greenville has a sort of "green monster" itself, and I still remember two shots he hit (in different games) that came real close to hitting the large brick building behind. I like the possible change in direction in considering players with high defensive upside (Vazquez and Iglesias). I loved what Tek gave us for so many years, but it got somewhat frustrating watching so many folks steal bases. Christian has become a favorite of mind also. He did look great this spring training!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2013 12:40:03 GMT -5
McCann was awful last year and is injured to start this year. Yes I know that he's relatively young but catching is a very physical position and you worry that he might be done.
Ruiz is 35 and was just suspended for PEDs. Who knows if that boosted his performance or not and by how much.
The other three guys are just so bad that there is no point in signing them. Soto was never a great defender and hasn't hit over .230 since 2010. Molina couldn't manage to SLG .360. Shopppach has played well in a backup role but whenever he's been forced into an every day role he's always eventually been exposed.
Catching around the league sucks right now and that's why the Sox gave David Ross $10M at age 37. It's why they'll be interested in resigning Saltalamachia too despite that the obvious flaws in his game.
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Post by sammo420 on Apr 29, 2013 13:05:37 GMT -5
Eh, there are some decent FA catchers next year. Brian McCann and Carlos Ruiz are the only probably starting options, but then you have guys like Jose Molina, Geovany Soto, Kelly Shoppach, and Yorvit Torrealba that are not terrible. This reminds me that the life span/expectations of a catcher are fairly short. Remember when some of us would've traded our first born for McCann? There are some names out there at the catcher position that had some really good seasons and looked like they were heading for great careers and now Elflopo (no relation to elguapo). Anyway I see him as Jose Molina as a realistic floor and Yadier Molina as a realistic ceiling. Right now I'd take either one on the sox. I was firmly in favor of the Swihart pick and still am but do believe in the philosophy of drafting defensive oriented catches with a question mark at the plate and hoping for the best.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 29, 2013 13:25:01 GMT -5
Yadier Molina would be the best Red Sox catcher since Fisk, and has gotten the the point where he's got a chance to have a pretty serious Hall of Fame case. He finished fourth in MVP voting last year, and that was probably about right, give or take a spot or two either way. I like Vazquez a lot, but that might be ambitious.
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2013 15:56:38 GMT -5
You're right, that's ambitious. Maybe a better comp would be A.J. Ellis of the Dodgers, another player who had long been projected as a backup catcher with great defense but a questionable bat. They both have solid plate discipline and the ability to avoid strikeouts, plus sneaky power. I could see Vazquez putting something similar to Ellis' career .268/.371/.388 line if he continues to develop his hit tool and plate discipline.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 29, 2013 16:43:45 GMT -5
You're right, that's ambitious. Maybe a better comp would be A.J. Ellis of the Dodgers, another player who had long been projected as a backup catcher with great defense but a questionable bat. They both have solid plate discipline and the ability to avoid strikeouts, plus sneaky power. I could see Vazquez putting something similar to Ellis' career .268/.371/.388 line if he continues to develop his hit tool and plate discipline. That would be more than enough to put him on the front burner. He's not going to put up the sort of early OBP we're seeing, no way. But a line like that would look very good from the Sox' starting catcher.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 29, 2013 22:19:23 GMT -5
Remember when everyone was surprised when Vazquez was added to the 40 man (while we lost 3 pitchers due to no space). Think the sox had a much better read on this guy than the scouting industry. Don't think he is a top prospect just yet but he certainly has value.
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Post by quintanariffic on Apr 29, 2013 23:52:28 GMT -5
Remember when everyone was surprised when Vazquez was added to the 40 man (while we lost 3 pitchers due to no space). Think the sox had a much better read on this guy than the scouting industry. Don't think he is a top prospect just yet but he certainly has value. The more questionable catcher added to the 40 man was Dan Butler.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2013 0:08:16 GMT -5
Honestly, I think it was a bunch of tough choices. I believe it was Hatfield who pointed out that Vazquez was just the type of high-upside player that some team would be willing to take a rule 5 gamble on and stash on the big league roster. Beane comes to mind. His scouts always seem to be on top of it, able to identify minor league talent. And strictly from a defensive standpoint, Vazquez is already as good as, say, half the ML guys who strap on catcher's gear. You wouldn't hurt the pitching staff at all having him on call.
So there were positions on the board that understood what those choices were and why the team would act they way they did. And Butler has value also, as another very good defensive catcher. If Ross got hurt, would you really want Saltalamacchia and Lavarnway as the only options? The Sox decided they should have a fall back for that contingency. Understandable.
The real head-scratcher remains Hassan. I think he could easily have been left unprotected with 50-50 odds he'd be back. That one's tough to fathom.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2013 0:51:24 GMT -5
I am no scout, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if his bat speed was average, that he'd have a harder time getting around on really good fastballs, especially on the inner half, as well as good breaking balls (assuming he doesn't have elite pitch recognition). This should be reflected in higher K rates, right? So what's going on with CVaz? Maybe just an SSS anomoly? Regardless, it would seem he has a good chance to hit enough to be an everyday catcher. Yes, small sample size, but I would think slower batspeed can be compensated for on fastballs by loading up on those and starting early. That, however, is when you get undressed by breaking balls, because you can't react. Then again, I'm now stepping out into scout-speak, which I should not do because I do not know the ways of the Jedi scouts.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2013 9:30:08 GMT -5
I think that is more of a function of the sorry state of the catching crop right now. Because the catching crop is so poor, if you have a guy who can catch even a modicum of hitting ability as Butler has, you have to keep him around. This is especially true if you aren't sure about Lavarnway's ability to catch regularly.
Some things that surprised me.
#1 Only 29 catchers managed even 1 WAR in 2012.
#2 Only 28 catchers managed to have an WOBA over .300 in at least 200 PAs.
#3 Only 18 catchers managed to have 450 PAs in 2012 and that includes Montero and Napoli who played a lot at other positions.
Butler makes me less worried if something happened to Saltalamachia or Ross.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 30, 2013 10:18:50 GMT -5
There are three positions where fielding ability should take precedence over hitting, catcher, shortstop and center field, but especially catcher. And at catcher there is a lot more to playing the position than just fielding. There is managing the pitchers, dealing with the umpire, etc.
A great catcher can make a team much better, even if he doesn't hit a lot. Unfortunately, there are few great catchers. The position is too damn difficult for ordinary humans to play really well.
From what I read during spring training, Vasquez not only showed major league skills in playing the position, but superior major league skills. If he could hit .270 in the majors he might be an All-Star. However, if he even hit .240 and played a superior game, he would be a major asset.
If you consider where there could be a significant upgrade in the Sox lineup that would have a major impact on the team's performance, catcher has to be number one.
So I hope Vasquez continues to develop. There doesn't appear to be any other catcher in the system of his playing skills.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2013 11:22:32 GMT -5
Swihart likely has a superior bat and if he develops into an adequate catcher he'd be more valuable. In a perfect world you'd love to have Swihart as the primary catcher with Vasquez as a solid backup.
As for the AJ Ellis comp, the one thing I would point out is that the statistical record anyways shows that Ellis always had good command of the strike zone as indicated by excellent strike out to walk ratios. This was true even in years he wasn't getting a lot of results. This isn't true of Vazquez who's strike out to walk ratios have rarely been horrible, but haven't matched Ellis'
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2013 13:02:54 GMT -5
#1 Only 29 catchers managed even 1 WAR in 2012. So there are 30 major league baseball teams, and 29 catchers that were calculated to be worth one or more wins in 2012 than a freely available minor leaguer would have been. That sounds about right to me. If there were 50-60 1.0+ WAR catchers, then it would be a sign that the WAR caluclation was failing. To me, Christian Vazquez's perfect world projection is Mike Scioscia, only less committed to small ball during his post-playing managerial stint.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 30, 2013 14:48:42 GMT -5
I sure hope they don't resign Salty. I'm ready to move on. Can't say his catching defense is hurting the pitching staff much this year though. They may well try to sign him.
Virtually no catchers are worth a qualifying offer now. We can't even get a pick if they move on.
It's probably coincidence but it seems Swihart has been moving up since Tek was assigned to be his personal tutor. I doubt if Tek is helping his hitting much but the raw talent seems to be there so far defensively. Great move by the FO in my opinion. We need to fast track his development.
Do you think the FO is anticipating that guys like Lavarnway and Vasquez may not be ready in 2014. Maybe yes, Maybe no but that would be a positive if they were.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2013 15:51:43 GMT -5
It's a little different. Due to the demands of the position a starting catcher tends to play less than a starter at other positions. Also lots of the catchers aren't very good hitters so managers are reluctant to give them tons of ABs. Thus only ten catchers had enough ABs to "qualify" last year and that includes Monterro who was more a DH who caught sometimes.
The take away is that most teams need to give significant PAs, say 250 or more, to at least two catchers even if you assume both stay healthy all year. There are a lot of catchers that aren't good enough hitters to at least be credible at the plate over such a sample.
Hence guys like Dan Butler, who on the surface look like guys you wouldn't mind cutting, have enough value to be place on the 40 man roster. Obviously flawed starting catchers, like Saltalamachia become coveted free agents. Players like Vazquez who might not have the bat to start in a perfect world, may find themselves as starters.
Yes....Lavarnway may never be ready...at least to be a player who can catch the bulk of his team's games.
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Post by quintanariffic on May 1, 2013 0:27:33 GMT -5
To me, Christian Vazquez's perfect world projection is Mike Scioscia, only less committed to small ball during his post-playing managerial stint. Well played.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 6, 2013 12:05:10 GMT -5
As promised, and current as of yesterday, here's Vazquez' K and BB rates extending back to his earliest days with Lowell. Took me a little while to figure out how to do this, but adding attachments is quite easy it turns out. Anyway here's the chart - just punch it up to get it full sized: It's early yet, but his K rate which wasn't all that bad given his patience, has decreased quite a bit in the early days of the season, and his walk rate which was always good has gotten damn near spectacular. Probably not sustainable but he's hanging in there so far. The trend has always been steady with gradually improving numbers as he's moved up through the minors, but if he maintains anything like this over the season, he's taken it to another leve.
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