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Who plays second base in 2024?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 16, 2023 17:58:04 GMT -5
The options don't look great. Unless a surprise player comes available this offseason I think it's a 5 house race: Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Mondesi and Dalbec...no sexy choices. Mondesi is an FA but if he's healed and had a good experience in the org could see the Red Sox trying to bring him in on a real cheap deal post rule 5.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 16, 2023 20:11:12 GMT -5
Pablo effing Reyes!
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,945
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2023 0:14:42 GMT -5
It's quite a story, especially when you dig deeper.
1) First, it's now clear that the insultingly low offer to Xander Bogaerts was right on the money; in fact, way generous for this year. He's not just having his worst offensive year since 2017, but he's also having his 4th straight awful year situationally (-1.13 WPA). He's at 2.8 fWAR but when you adjust for situation, it's about 1.1.
So re-signing him was always a Plan B, should he accept what they believed was a fair offer but what would seem like a very team-friendly to everyone else. And so far they have been right.
2) I've always liked Arroyo as the bench middle-infielder but never thought of him as a starer. I believe the original plan was to open the season with him starting at 2B and Chang in the backup role, and then have Mondesi take over 2B (while shedding Chang, or less likely, Arroyo, if needed). The fourth guy on the depth chart was Valdez.
The Story injury changed nothing, except Kiké taking Story's role, and Duvall being signed to tale his.
3) This is easy to forget (and is an aside to this story, but a big one). From April 12 to 24, Kiké started 6 games in CF, 5 at 2B, and just 2 at SS. In that stretch Dalbec (!) started 1 game at SS and then Chang started 10 of the other 12. All but one of Kiké's games in CF came before Duran was recalled and all of his games at 2B came after .
They had punted Kiké as regular SS after 11 games. Maybe provisionally, but the defensive upgrade (Kiké > Chang) dwarfed the offensive downgrade (Arroyp > Chang). I'd be surprised if there hadn't been a discussion as to whether Kiké should move to 2B or SS, and whether Chang or Arroyo should be added to the starting lineup until Mondesi was ready. We know that they went for Kiké / Arroyo, but we also know that they quickly figured out that the other alternative was better. How different is the season if Chang doesn't break that bone?
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4) When Chang got hurt they quickly recalled Valdez. And then Arroyo strains a hammy and after some days of trying to play through it, has to go on the IL on May 7, despite having hit .458 / .500 / .708 in his last 24 PA. Of course he never hits like that again.
The Sox now need to acquire a middle-infielder, because Bobby Dalbec can't really fill that role and they regard David Hamilton as unready.
Pablo Reyes had started 21 of 37 games for the Las Vegas Aviators -- 6 at 2B, 4 each at SS and 3B, 3 in CF, and 2 each in LF and as DH. He was hitting .257 / .385 / .351.
I wonder ... to what extent do MLB team have lists of AAA guys with no options left who can be had for essentially nothing should they have a string of injuries at an already thin position? If they do, where would a guy who had started just 57% of games for the AAA affiliate of the worst ream in MLB usually rank? Anywhere?
It took 4+ days to grab Reyes for cash, but that included 2 off days; they went 6 days and 4 games with Dalbec on the roster instead. That suggests to me that he was on a list of candidates already, but they did some further study to choose him.
And the rest is history ... or (so far) a crazy fluke.
In any case, when I adjust Reyes' fWAR for situational hitting ... I get 1.0 or 1.1. That is somewhat better bang for the buck than the other guy.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 102
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Post by hank on Aug 17, 2023 10:00:26 GMT -5
Pablo Reyes is the red headed stepchild of the Red Sox. He's been great this year but no matter what he does it's always yeah but. And with him it starts with that he makes all the routine plays defensively which hasn't been the case at short and 2nd most of this year, a big reason why this team has been so up and down.
Maybe the pixie dust falls off but the guy seems like a spark plug to me and he'd be my pick as the starter at 2nd next season.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 17, 2023 12:50:17 GMT -5
The options don't look great. Unless a surprise player comes available this offseason I think it's a 5 house race: Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Mondesi and Dalbec...no sexy choices. Mondesi is an FA but if he's healed and had a good experience in the org could see the Red Sox trying to bring him in on a real cheap deal post rule 5. His K & BB rates make my stomach turn, but that would be a super fun defensive infield. I am totally here for the OOTP Sox.
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Post by manfred on Aug 17, 2023 13:08:22 GMT -5
The options don't look great. Unless a surprise player comes available this offseason I think it's a 5 house race: Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Mondesi and Dalbec...no sexy choices. Mondesi is an FA but if he's healed and had a good experience in the org could see the Red Sox trying to bring him in on a real cheap deal post rule 5. That doesn’t strike me as being an answer to who plays second, though. He’d be more depth, lottery ticket etc. Penciling him in at second… or even being in a situation where he is a legit contender… is not great. He was not a great player before this injury. And he has never been durable. If he signs a minor league contract, fine. But otherwise…
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Post by briam on Aug 17, 2023 13:27:05 GMT -5
Wow, I didn’t realize how brutal the middle infield FA class is for 2024 and 2025. You’re basically looking at Rosario, IKF, Ahmed, Frazier, Miller, Kemp, Drury, Merrifield, Gleyber, Tim Anderson, Dejong, Adames, and Altuve (if he gets to FA). A far cry from the past few free agent groups.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 17, 2023 13:33:39 GMT -5
Mondesi is an FA but if he's healed and had a good experience in the org could see the Red Sox trying to bring him in on a real cheap deal post rule 5. That doesn’t strike me as being an answer to who plays second, though. He’d be more depth, lottery ticket etc. Penciling him in at second… or even being in a situation where he is a legit contender… is not great. He was not a great player before this injury. And he has never been durable. If he signs a minor league contract, fine. But otherwise… He actually is quite good on a rate basis; the issue is health. He's played at a cumulative 3.8 fWAR/600 PA pace since 2018. So, while I wouldn't call him an answer there, if he's healthy I would love him as one of the three infielders on the Opening Day roster.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 17, 2023 13:46:20 GMT -5
Mondesi is an FA but if he's healed and had a good experience in the org could see the Red Sox trying to bring him in on a real cheap deal post rule 5. That doesn’t strike me as being an answer to who plays second, though. He’d be more depth, lottery ticket etc. Penciling him in at second… or even being in a situation where he is a legit contender… is not great. He was not a great player before this injury. And he has never been durable. If he signs a minor league contract, fine. But otherwise… Yeah I agree with you, I wouldn't want to pencil him in as the starter either. But, if say the plan was like Reyes or Urias, I like the idea of Mondesi as a flyer on a minor league deal or a cheap MLB deal where if he's on the 60 day IL to begin the season again you just shrug.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 17, 2023 13:53:55 GMT -5
Didn't Mondesi have ACL surgery early last year and is at or around 16 months since having the surgery? And we haven't heard much if anything on his progression since? Everyone heals differently but at this point it's extremely alarming to me that we've heard next to nothing. Count me out on him unless it's a minor league deal, at this point the ML minimum is even too much for me as I feel like chances are that's just burning money for no likely return.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 17, 2023 14:02:32 GMT -5
Didn't Mondesi have ACL surgery early last year and is at or around 16 months since having the surgery? And we haven't heard much if anything on his progression since? Everyone heals differently but at this point it's extremely alarming to me that we've heard next to nothing. Count me out on him unless it's a minor league deal, at this point the ML minimum is even too much for me as I feel like chances are that's just burning money for no likely return. I'm not going to lie, I totally forgot he existed lol
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Post by okin15 on Aug 17, 2023 14:28:32 GMT -5
it's worse than that with Mondesi. From the injury report yesterday (https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/red-sox-injuries-and-roster-moves):
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 17, 2023 14:41:14 GMT -5
Still having enough pain 16 months after having surgery to be shut down is most certainly not a good sign, no update would have been better than that. I'll say it again I would not offer him even a ML minimum contract. If he wants to sign a minor league deal that won't count against the LT then sure since he does probably have some upside in that case but there's gotta be real doubt he ever plays major league baseball again at this point. This is not close to a normal rehab from a torn ACL at this point, would not surprise me if they need to open him back up at this point.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Aug 17, 2023 15:34:18 GMT -5
The options don't look great. Unless a surprise player comes available this offseason I think it's a 5 house race: Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Mondesi and Dalbec...no sexy choices. Mondesi? Why not Pedroia? 40th birthday today.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Aug 17, 2023 17:06:25 GMT -5
Go with a (healthy?) Story at shortstop until Mayer. As for second base, cobble things together with the names mentioned. Or, sign a guy to a one-year deal... but don't get locked into any deal that would block rising prospects.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 17, 2023 22:41:02 GMT -5
Go with a (healthy?) Story at shortstop until Mayer. As for second base, cobble things together with the names mentioned. Or, sign a guy to a one-year deal... but don't get locked into any deal that would block rising prospects. Am I the only one starting to wonder if Mayer is going to take more time down on the farm then is being projected?
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 18, 2023 15:50:04 GMT -5
Story because Bonaci plays SS. Slightly joking.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 18, 2023 20:15:53 GMT -5
Since it was suggested on the first page that Rafaela could push Story over, it's worth noting that Rafaela hasn't played shortstop (or anything other than CF) since July 22. They're clearly focusing in on CF.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 18, 2023 21:40:54 GMT -5
Go with a (healthy?) Story at shortstop until Mayer. As for second base, cobble things together with the names mentioned. Or, sign a guy to a one-year deal... but don't get locked into any deal that would block rising prospects. Am I the only one starting to wonder if Mayer is going to take more time down on the farm then is being projected? I was wondering about this possibility the other day and it got me to thinking that a 2026 arrival, instead of 2025, would have made keeping Xander at the six years/$160M (which, as I recall, he said he may have accepted if only they had offered it) an even better move. He would have gotten three full years at SS before they would have been forced to find another spot (LF/DH/fill-in at SS?) for him. But what's done is done, spilt milk, turn the page. All of that.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 18, 2023 21:43:25 GMT -5
Given the need for SP, probably at least more BP arm for the mix, and other pieces, I don't think they spend at 2B.
Pablo Reyes, man. Pablo Reyes.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 19, 2023 12:39:51 GMT -5
Urias
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 19, 2023 12:43:00 GMT -5
Ha can't overreact to one great grand slam but between urias, Reyes, Valdez, even Rafaela I guess I don't see the Sox allocating anymore money towards 2nd in FA this year. Just stick with one of the internal options and wait for Yorke and/or Mayer to become the answer long term at one of the MI spots next to Story.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 19, 2023 12:53:00 GMT -5
How many people came in here to type Luis Urias?
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 19, 2023 14:47:47 GMT -5
Can I change my answer? Seriously though, let Urias and Reyes battle it out. Reyes can back up SS and OF as well. He was a pretty highly regarded prospect at one time. I wouldn't be spending much $$ on 2B if I was Bloom.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,256
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Post by cdj on Aug 19, 2023 15:19:57 GMT -5
Ha can't overreact to one great grand slam but between urias, Reyes, Valdez, even Rafaela I guess I don't see the Sox allocating anymore money towards 2nd in FA this year. Just stick with one of the internal options and wait for Yorke and/or Mayer to become the answer long term at one of the MI spots next to Story. How about 2 grand slams tho?
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