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9/4-9/6 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by yuchangclan on Sept 4, 2023 19:28:53 GMT -5
If the Sox merely wanted a good glove/baserunner to play SS, they could have signed Andrelton Simmons and saved $119m. I’ve heard he was a tremendous teammate, too. Well liked by all. Handsome, too!
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 4, 2023 19:32:21 GMT -5
Where will Casas end up? 30-70? 30-80? What a second half. The guy is a horse. Regardless of how the team's season turns out, it appears that they have found a middle of the order bat for the next decade or more -- IF they pay him to stay around.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 4, 2023 19:33:43 GMT -5
Where will Casas end up? 30-70? 30-80? What a second half. The guy is a horse. Regardless of how the team's season turns out, it appears that they have found a middle of the order bat for the next decade or more -- IF they pay him to stay around. If Casas gets hot enough for 30, and if Gunnar has a mediocre finish, still possible for Casas to grab that ROY even if it's an fWAR deficit imo.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 4, 2023 20:30:41 GMT -5
I can not imagine why. He plays hard, is an excellent defensive player, runs the bases well. He hits with power. He seems to be a good teammate. I wish I was as good at anything as Trevor Story is at baseball. At present he is not hitting well. For that he should be mocked at every turn? Again, I do not understand mocking the team one roots for. Even when the team is winning. I just don't get it. I can only imagine those crapping on him have the first half of the season blacked out from memory due to trauma Letâs be real though, he never had a chance with some. They were bashing him 5 games in when he wasnât hitting after not having an off-season, a ramp up period, a spring, or a first 3 months of the season. They think anybody can get thrown into a wild card race against elite pitching in the august and start hitting. Itâs bananaland to put it mildly. A lot of those same people were mad he said he wasnât ready at the plate down in Worcester during his rehab too iirc. Canât win with them unless youâre a plus bat, plus glove, and plus baserunner apparently. Even if he replaced the personification of anti-clutch. People who begin their year in the middle of the season usually struggle- weâve seen it with former Sox guys like Kimbrel and Drew. Yeahâ¦toss recovering from a major elbow procedure on top of that. For me- give me the glove and the baserunning, I can wait until the bat comes back around. Something tells me heâs not the .500 OPS guy some people apparently think he is now . Itâs still better than what weâve trotted out all year. I remember the first half of the year and Kiké was horrible. But i also remember the year before and Story didn't hit very well then either. I wasn't hoping Story would set the world on fire when he came back. But i was hoping for an offensive upgrade from Chang (who is also good defensively). So far there has been no upgrade. It's a game column and when he strikes out his first 3 at bats, there are going to be people who aren't real happy about that. I think their frustration is understandable, especially given Story's large contract.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,124
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Post by cdj on Sept 4, 2023 20:31:25 GMT -5
I can only imagine those crapping on him have the first half of the season blacked out from memory due to trauma Letâs be real though, he never had a chance with some. They were bashing him 5 games in when he wasnât hitting after not having an off-season, a ramp up period, a spring, or a first 3 months of the season. They think anybody can get thrown into a wild card race against elite pitching in the august and start hitting. Itâs bananaland to put it mildly. A lot of those same people were mad he said he wasnât ready at the plate down in Worcester during his rehab too iirc. Canât win with them unless youâre a plus bat, plus glove, and plus baserunner apparently. Even if he replaced the personification of anti-clutch. People who begin their year in the middle of the season usually struggle- weâve seen it with former Sox guys like Kimbrel and Drew. Yeahâ¦toss recovering from a major elbow procedure on top of that. For me- give me the glove and the baserunning, I can wait until the bat comes back around. Something tells me heâs not the .500 OPS guy some people apparently think he is now . Itâs still better than what weâve trotted out all year. I remember the first half of the year and Kiké was horrible. But i also remember the year before and Story didn't hit very well then either. I wasn't hoping Story would set the world on fire when he came back. But i was hoping for an offensive upgrade from Chang (who is also good defensively). So far there has been no upgrade. It's a game column and when he strikes out his first 3 at bats, there are going to be people who aren't real happy about that. I think their frustration is understandable, especially given Story's large contract. He was a league average bat with pop last year when he wasn’t being drilled on the wrist, all while playing with a wonky elbow I imagine he will get back to that. Possibly better now that his elbow is repaired. It’s just not going to happen immediately when dropped in there against elite pitching in august
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 4, 2023 22:11:02 GMT -5
Was just looking through some stats on Bello - looking like our ace (hopefully for a long time) - he is 6th in the AL WAR at 3.5, just behind Bradish of Baltimore.
Also Casas - up to 2 WAR (Masa is 1.3) - first in OBP, second in OPS. We are watching him arriving - and it's such fun.
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Post by keninten on Sept 4, 2023 22:28:49 GMT -5
They`re up to 4 1/2 games back. I`m going to get sucked back in again if they get on any kind of a roll now.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 4, 2023 22:28:50 GMT -5
The good news is, since Story came back the Red Sox are only 9th worst in fangraphs' Def rankings. Merely bad, not atrocious - hell yeah!
The bad news is, shortstop is a freaking cursed position this season, I don't know how else to explain it. Somehow even with an elite defender there (+3 OAA and +5 DRS in less than a month!) we are still racking up negative WAR at the position - because Story has hit worse than Yu Chang.
I worry a little... small sample size and he's coming back from injury, sure, but ericmvan likes to point out that even small sample sizes can be meaningful if the effect size is big enough; a sufficiently great performance over a short stretch can meaningfully indicate a good hitter. But shouldn't it work in the other direction as well - if the performance is that bad, no amount of caveats can make it completely meaningless...
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 22:34:18 GMT -5
The good news is, since Story came back the Red Sox are only 9th worst in fangraphs' Def rankings. Merely bad, not atrocious - hell yeah!
The bad news is, shortstop is a freaking cursed position this season, I don't know how else to explain it. Somehow even with an elite defender there (+3 OAA and +5 DRS in less than a month!) we are still racking up negative WAR at the position - because Story has hit worse than Yu Chang.
I worry a little... small sample size and he's coming back from injury, sure, but ericmvan likes to point out that even small sample sizes can be meaningful if the effect size is big enough; a sufficiently great performance over a short stretch can meaningfully indicate a good hitter. But shouldn't it work in the other direction as well - if the performance is that bad, no amount of caveats can make it completely meaningless...
My worry is going back to his last year in CO, the decline has been steady. And also that isn’t just putting up bad numbers but looking very bad. And the sample is getting less small.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 4, 2023 23:15:55 GMT -5
I think we maybe need to temper our expectations of what Story is now. Perhaps the Coors effect also has been a factor. If he's a very good defensive SS, but his bat has slid to league average, with above average pop for an everyday SS is that so bad? I know when he signed we expected a slugging, decent approach middle infielder with great defense.
I do want to see what he'll be with a healthy off-season, full spring training and some distance from the elbow injury.
He's also going to hit in an offense where he's a bit less of a focal point with the signing of Yoshida and the emergence of Casas and Duran. A deeper offense can only help a guy who may be has lost some of the luster, but still has the tools that brought him the large contract.
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Post by yuchangclan on Sept 4, 2023 23:34:05 GMT -5
I remember the first half of the year and Kiké was horrible. But i also remember the year before and Story didn't hit very well then either. I wasn't hoping Story would set the world on fire when he came back. But i was hoping for an offensive upgrade from Chang (who is also good defensively). So far there has been no upgrade. It's a game column and when he strikes out his first 3 at bats, there are going to be people who aren't real happy about that. I think their frustration is understandable, especially given Story's large contract. He was a league average bat with pop last year when he wasn’t being drilled on the wrist, all while playing with a wonky elbow I imagine he will get back to that. Possibly better now that his elbow is repaired. It’s just not going to happen immediately when dropped in there against elite pitching in august He hasn’t hit against the shitty pitching either, though. Just saying. And now he’s played 35 games between minors and MLB this year(approaching 150PA). At what point do YOU start expecting some production? I just want to know where you’ve set expectations.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 23:36:28 GMT -5
The thing to me is he was signed with X next to him. Now he is the “star.” So while we are lowering expectations, we should also realize that hos role on the team has *increased* since he signed.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2023 0:12:59 GMT -5
I think we maybe need to temper our expectations of what Story is now. Perhaps the Coors effect also has been a factor. If he's a very good defensive SS, but his bat has slid to league average, with above average pop for an everyday SS is that so bad? I know when he signed we expected a slugging, decent approach middle infielder with great defense. I do want to see what he'll be with a healthy off-season, full spring training and some distance from the elbow injury. He's also going to hit in an offense where he's a bit less of a focal point with the signing of Yoshida and the emergence of Casas and Duran. A deeper offense can only help a guy who may be has lost some of the luster, but still has the tools that brought him the large contract. If he's an average bat he's like a 4 WAR player. Which would be great. (And let's not overlook the fact that a lot of people were skeptical about him being able to play SS until recently... not hearing too much about that these days. So that's a good thing.) But an average bat is what he already was in 2021-22 - a 99 wRC+ over a thousand PAs. The concern is that he'll be worse than that going forward.
Not that I'm giving up or anything; he hit well as recently as late last season. Seeing just one hot streak before this season ends would go a long way.
The thing to me is he was signed with X next to him. Now he is the “star.” So while we are lowering expectations, we should also realize that hos role on the team has *increased* since he signed. Well I don't know what that means. Xander's gone but Yoshida and Casas are here... Story is getting paid to put up 2.5-3 WAR a year; it's unfair to ask for more than that just because the rest of the roster doesn't fit your ideal or something.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,124
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2023 0:24:08 GMT -5
He was a league average bat with pop last year when he wasn’t being drilled on the wrist, all while playing with a wonky elbow I imagine he will get back to that. Possibly better now that his elbow is repaired. It’s just not going to happen immediately when dropped in there against elite pitching in august He hasn’t hit against the shitty pitching either, though. Just saying. And now he’s played 35 games between minors and MLB this year(approaching 150PA). At what point do YOU start expecting some production? I just want to know where you’ve set expectations. Honestly? Next season. Ideally he gets something going with the bat towards the end of this season, but I wouldn’t count on it. The team flat out said they wouldn’t count on him this year after he had the surgery. People can have “increased expectations” for him or whatever but that doesn’t change the context. He was dropped into the middle of the season in august after major surgery, a surgery in which the team said it wouldn’t depend on him this season after undergoing it. Stephen Drew posted a 111 OPS+ and then was dropped into the middle of the next season and put up a 50. And that was with zero injury and a lot less time missed. Hitting major league pitching is hard, doing it under these set of circumstances is incredibly difficult.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 5, 2023 1:22:31 GMT -5
Plus you can tell his timing is off. The fact that he hit well for power in AAA and then has had a couple nice games and has run into pitches shows me the bat speed is still there. He's got to get his hand eye coordination back and that takes reps, it's a game of adjustments, but before he even starts making adjustments he needs the foundation of timing. I haven't seen any glitches in swing mechanics so to me it's all about getting comfortable against the best pitchers in the world
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Post by soxfanatic on Sept 5, 2023 2:52:11 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 5, 2023 6:54:34 GMT -5
No, it's great!
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2023 7:10:42 GMT -5
Plus you can tell his timing is off. The fact that he hit well for power in AAA and then has had a couple nice games and has run into pitches shows me the bat speed is still there. He's got to get his hand eye coordination back and that takes reps, it's a game of adjustments, but before he even starts making adjustments he needs the foundation of timing. I haven't seen any glitches in swing mechanics so to me it's all about getting comfortable against the best pitchers in the world Yeah, seems like he's hitting the ball hard as hell when he does make contact. I think that's a good sign.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 5, 2023 7:19:15 GMT -5
Plus you can tell his timing is off. The fact that he hit well for power in AAA and then has had a couple nice games and has run into pitches shows me the bat speed is still there. He's got to get his hand eye coordination back and that takes reps, it's a game of adjustments, but before he even starts making adjustments he needs the foundation of timing. I haven't seen any glitches in swing mechanics so to me it's all about getting comfortable against the best pitchers in the world Yeah, seems like he's hitting the ball hard as hell when he does make contact. I think that's a good sign. His numbers indicate a high hard hit percentage, sweet-spot percentage and barrel percentage. He just has been striking out a lot. He was off for a year. He needs more at bats to get comfortable again.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,124
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2023 7:59:04 GMT -5
it’s just funny to me- the team says they won’t depend on him this year and he himself tells people that he doesn’t think he’s up to his usual standards yet at the plate towards the end of his rehab assignment
He then goes out and struggles and people are the shocked pikachu meme. Idk what to tell them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 5, 2023 8:08:29 GMT -5
Our boys are gonna reel us back in again, aren't they ? LOL.
Maybe this is the time where it all clicks for 3-4 weeks. Let's hope.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,124
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2023 8:26:17 GMT -5
Our boys are gonna reel us back in again, aren't they ? LOL. Maybe this is the time where it all clicks for 3-4 weeks. Let's hope. They always do! We’ll finish a game out so we can think about all the fun ways we’ve lost games this year lol
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 8:40:11 GMT -5
it’s just funny to me- the team says they won’t depend on him this year and he himself tells people that he doesn’t think he’s up to his usual standards yet at the plate towards the end of his rehab assignment He then goes out and struggles and people are the shocked pikachu meme. Idk what to tell them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 5, 2023 8:48:38 GMT -5
it’s just funny to me- the team says they won’t depend on him this year and he himself tells people that he doesn’t think he’s up to his usual standards yet at the plate towards the end of his rehab assignment He then goes out and struggles and people are the shocked pikachu meme. Idk what to tell them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money. Those OPS+ numbers are fine though, with the defense and baserunning value he provides that's a really good player. He still put up 2.4 WAR and was nearly with his AAV in 2022 despite a fluky injury, if you buy that free agent WAR costs more like $10M than $8.3M he was pretty much on par value wise. That said of course you can include missed playing time in the evaluation of the contract. It's definitely not great to lose a year and a half. I don't really see this as a good reason to have the personal vitriol you seem to have for Story but to each their own.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2023 9:05:24 GMT -5
it’s just funny to me- the team says they won’t depend on him this year and he himself tells people that he doesn’t think he’s up to his usual standards yet at the plate towards the end of his rehab assignment He then goes out and struggles and people are the shocked pikachu meme. Idk what to tell them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money. You and I seem to have similar concerns about Story's bat but then you keep taking this left turn into wanting to re-litigate the decision to sign him as a free agent. On one level, fair enough; but it kind of casts all your doubts about him as motivated by a desire to complain about the front office.
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