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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2024 15:05:54 GMT -5
Or on the flipside since Twitterverse is a cesspool they'll undoubtedly be people who complain the Sox didn't pay him enough and blame the org somehow. WEEI was already saying Bello is pissed and they low-balled him. Well that didn't take long..
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 21, 2024 17:57:41 GMT -5
One - do we really trust WEEI? Who there is claiming this? Two - even if Bello thinks they low-balled him, it doesn't mean they really did.
No idea what's really what, but the thread was started from reports they've been talking and they were building towards an agreement.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 21, 2024 18:18:59 GMT -5
One - do we really trust WEEI? Who there is claiming this? Two - even if Bello thinks they low-balled him, it doesn't mean they really did. No idea what's really what, but the thread was started from reports they've been talking and they were building towards an agreement. Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2024 18:24:35 GMT -5
These are negotiations on two players who are 5 years away from being FAs, I wouldn't expect the sox to absolutely blow them away with their original offers to either of them. It's a negotiation, that's how these things go.
This doesn't seem like a Lester or Xander situation where low balling them is going to absolutely shut the door on negotiations since those guys were a year away from FA not 5.
I dont put any stock into WEEI saying they lowballed Bello.
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Post by 07redsox on Feb 21, 2024 18:25:36 GMT -5
One - do we really trust WEEI? Who there is claiming this? Two - even if Bello thinks they low-balled him, it doesn't mean they really did. No idea what's really what, but the thread was started from reports they've been talking and they were building towards an agreement. Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. There’s a big difference to me between “wasn’t tough to turn down” and “low-balled”. No team is going to come with their best offer first in a negotiation. Low-ball in my eyes would be to characterize the entire negotiation if the team never gets to at least a respectable number. This is another thing that social media and the constant reporting has ruined and caused PR issues to the extreme. Years ago the contact was just reported. Now we get updates when pretty much anything happens with most news. Of course a contract negotiation that just started is going to look different before something is actually signed.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 21, 2024 18:29:22 GMT -5
These are negotiations on two players who are 5 years away from being FAs, I wouldn't expect the sox to absolutely blow them away with their original offers to either of them. It's a negotiation, that's how these things go. This doesn't seem like a Lester or Xander situation where low balling them is going to absolutely shut the door on negotiations since those guys were a year away from FA not 5. I dont put any stock into WEEI saying they lowballed Bello. Yeah, the only take away is the Red Sox probably won't get super cheap deals on stars because they're betting on themselves. People thought Trout would hold a grudge after getting like a 20k raise in pre-arb after an MVP season and he's still there. The Red Sox are trying to see how low they can go to lock up these kids who don't have financial security. I'd be happier with a deal or even hearing that the Red Sox were close or made a good offer, but they have 5 years to figure it out.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 21, 2024 18:32:06 GMT -5
Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. There’s a big difference to me between “wasn’t tough to turn down” and “low-balled”. No team is going to come with their best offer first in a negotiation. Low-ball in my eyes would be to characterize the entire negotiation if the team never gets to at least a respectable number. This is another thing that social media and the constant reporting has ruined and caused PR issues to the extreme. Years ago the contact was just reported. Now we get updates when pretty much anything happens with most news. Of course a contract negotiation that just started is going to look different before something is actually signed. Is there a difference? I can't imagine a good offer being easy to turn down? In the case of Casas, it's not the media's fault Casas said he got an offer that wasn't what he wanted. He said he wants to be here forever and wants enough money to take care of his family for the rest of his life.
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Post by 07redsox on Feb 21, 2024 19:04:59 GMT -5
There’s a big difference to me between “wasn’t tough to turn down” and “low-balled”. No team is going to come with their best offer first in a negotiation. Low-ball in my eyes would be to characterize the entire negotiation if the team never gets to at least a respectable number. This is another thing that social media and the constant reporting has ruined and caused PR issues to the extreme. Years ago the contact was just reported. Now we get updates when pretty much anything happens with most news. Of course a contract negotiation that just started is going to look different before something is actually signed. Is there a difference? I can't imagine a good offer being easy to turn down? In the case of Casas, it's not the media's fault Casas said he got an offer that wasn't what he wanted. He said he wants to be here forever and wants enough money to take care of his family for the rest of his life. That’s the point of what I was saying though. That offer to Casas was most likely the first offer, or at least the very beginning stages. I wouldn’t expect it to be what he wanted at that point. I highly doubt most teams offer a “good offer” on the first try that the player takes immediately. Casas/his agent most likely said “no thank you, this is closer to what we want”. If the team stays stuck at/near their original offer then for sure that’s low-balling him. That’s where the issue with media comes in, not that it’s their fault or anything. It’s not like in the past that players never got offers they didn’t like in a negotiation, it just was not reported like it is today.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 21, 2024 19:17:41 GMT -5
Is there a difference? I can't imagine a good offer being easy to turn down? In the case of Casas, it's not the media's fault Casas said he got an offer that wasn't what he wanted. He said he wants to be here forever and wants enough money to take care of his family for the rest of his life. That’s the point of what I was saying though. That offer to Casas was most likely the first offer, or at least the very beginning stages. I wouldn’t expect it to be what he wanted at that point. I highly doubt most teams offer a “good offer” on the first try that the player takes immediately. Casas/his agent most likely said “no thank you, this is closer to what we want”. If the team stays stuck at/near their original offer then for sure that’s low-balling him. That’s where the issue with media comes in, not that it’s their fault or anything. It’s not like in the past that players never got offers they didn’t like in a negotiation, it just was not reported like it is today. Players holding out for what they think they’re worth and teams trying to sign them for less than that has been the standard operating procedure for as long as professional baseball has existed. Like you said, the media has to do what they have to do to generate revenue and therefore a paycheck, but “the two parties continue to discuss parameters of an extension as they hope to reach an agreement” isn’t actually news. It’s like reporting that Jimmy Carter is still alive.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2024 10:56:09 GMT -5
Mitch Keller got a 5/77 extension for ages 28-32. He had 4+ years of service time but otherwise seems like a decent comp for Bello. Implications for what Bello might would get?
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 22, 2024 11:15:07 GMT -5
This is so far off the mark. Seriously, what do people think the mean outcome WAR for Bello's age 30-31 seasons looks like right now? It's like 2 WAR. If the Red Sox are not getting a bargain on those years, then there is zero point in doing a deal and losing the ability to walk away cheap if Bello's career goes south.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 22, 2024 11:30:17 GMT -5
Mitch Keller got a 5/77 extension for ages 28-32. He had 4+ years of service time but otherwise seems like a decent comp for Bello. Implications for what Bello might would get? Seems like a pretty good comp as a player. Keller just finished his 4th season. If we add his arbitration salary from this past season (2.437mil) along with two seasons on minimum-ish contracts we get ~4mil. So when you account for Bello's service it would be 8 years and 81mil.Bello's has been better at this point in his career than Keller was at the same point (looks like Keller was dealing with injuries early on) so I'd guess he gets a bit more than that, although the extra years add risk, so maybe not. Certainly a good starting point.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 22, 2024 11:37:40 GMT -5
In my mind it's more like this Start with a middle ground though his arbitration years and guarantee them and set Bello up for like - so it's 5/20.5M - and then build a few free agent years how the Red Sox want them.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 22, 2024 12:20:59 GMT -5
This is so far off the mark. Seriously, what do people think the mean outcome WAR for Bello's age 30-31 seasons looks like right now? It's like 2 WAR. If the Red Sox are not getting a bargain on those years, then there is zero point in doing a deal and losing the ability to walk away cheap if Bello's career goes south. I feel like it’s more that people don’t realize signing Bello to a 5/30 contract would be lighting money on fire on the team’s end. Somewhere between 6/50 and 8/90, depending on what their internal evaluation is and how many FA years Bello wants to give up, seems about right to me.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 22, 2024 12:29:58 GMT -5
This is so far off the mark. Seriously, what do people think the mean outcome WAR for Bello's age 30-31 seasons looks like right now? It's like 2 WAR. If the Red Sox are not getting a bargain on those years, then there is zero point in doing a deal and losing the ability to walk away cheap if Bello's career goes south. I feel like it’s more that people don’t realize signing Bello to a 5/30 contract would be lighting money on fire on the team’s end. Somewhere between 6/50 and 8/90, depending on what their internal evaluation is and how many FA years Bello wants to give up, seems about right to me. Agreed, a 5 year extension on a guy who can't be an FA for 5 years doesn't do much for the Sox side of things unless there was at least one if not two years of relatively team friendly options attached to the end of it.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 22, 2024 12:38:01 GMT -5
I feel like it’s more that people don’t realize signing Bello to a 5/30 contract would be lighting money on fire on the team’s end. Somewhere between 6/50 and 8/90, depending on what their internal evaluation is and how many FA years Bello wants to give up, seems about right to me. Agreed, a 5 year extension on a guy who can't be an FA for 5 years doesn't do much for the Sox side of things unless there was at least one if not two years of relatively team friendly options attached to the end of it. It’s not just that, it’s that Bello’s earning power over that time is capped. He’s almost certainly not making $30 million thru arbitration unless he turns into a legit ace before hitting arbitration. 50 million is probably still a hefty overpay for 6 years, but I’m not sure he would sign for anything less than that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 22, 2024 12:46:39 GMT -5
Agreed, a 5 year extension on a guy who can't be an FA for 5 years doesn't do much for the Sox side of things unless there was at least one if not two years of relatively team friendly options attached to the end of it. It’s not just that, it’s that Bello’s earning power over that time is capped. He’s almost certainly not making $30 million thru arbitration unless he turns into a legit ace before hitting arbitration. 50 million is probably still a hefty overpay for 6 years, but I’m not sure he would sign for anything less than that. True, Red Sox Stats outlines it pretty well with their chart. Barring an immediate jump in his #s chances are over the next 5 seasons Bello is probably looking at around 20.6M but let's just round up to $21M. I'd like to see him sign an extension that buys out 2 years of his FA years but it's hard for me to see what rush the Sox should be in to offer him something he can't refuse. Say you offer him something like 5 years 25M with 2-3 option years at maybe 20 for the first year and 25-30 for years 2 and 3, does Bello accept that? Is it even worth it for the Sox to offer him that right now?Hard to say.
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Post by ortiz on Feb 22, 2024 13:06:53 GMT -5
One - do we really trust WEEI? Who there is claiming this? Two - even if Bello thinks they low-balled him, it doesn't mean they really did. No idea what's really what, but the thread was started from reports they've been talking and they were building towards an agreement. Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. I mean let's be honest, why should we trust WEEI. It's not like the Sox have a history of low balling their home grown stars...Lester, Xander....oh wait.
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Post by ortiz on Feb 22, 2024 13:10:12 GMT -5
I feel like it’s more that people don’t realize signing Bello to a 5/30 contract would be lighting money on fire on the team’s end. Somewhere between 6/50 and 8/90, depending on what their internal evaluation is and how many FA years Bello wants to give up, seems about right to me. Agreed, a 5 year extension on a guy who can't be an FA for 5 years doesn't do much for the Sox side of things unless there was at least one if not two years of relatively team friendly options attached to the end of it. This is just not true. From a business perspective there is value in cost certainty. Not nearly as much value, but there is value.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 22, 2024 13:11:29 GMT -5
Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. I mean let's be honest, why should we trust WEEI. It's not like the Sox have a history of low balling their home grown stars...Lester, Xander....oh wait. Not comparable in the slightest, Lester and Xander were a year from FA and their market rate was pretty much known. Casas and Bello are both 5 years away from being FAs. Also Xander originally did sign an extension with the Sox to buy out his arb years.
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Post by lronhoyabembe on Feb 22, 2024 13:12:24 GMT -5
Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. I mean let's be honest, why should we trust WEEI. It's not like the Sox have a history of low balling their home grown stars...Lester, Xander....oh wait. We used to call this the "hometown discount."
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 22, 2024 13:18:15 GMT -5
Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. I mean let's be honest, why should we trust WEEI. It's not like the Sox have a history of low balling their home grown stars...Lester, Xander....oh wait. I have zero reason to trust Boston sports talk radio. Period. Haven't heard this anywhere else. WEEI is all about creating controversy and gaining ratings. Past hosts have even talked about it. Half their act (various hosts arguing with each other) is no doubt faked BS. Look at the salary discussion above. It would be pretty hard to make an insulting offer. Maybe he doesn't like the offers so far. Again, thread was started from a Cotillo report that things were heating up. All the anti ownership people have been loving Cotillo this off season and talking about accurate he's been. Now you want trust WEEI? Lester and Xander were MUCH closer to FA and were dealing with different GM's. Say whatever you want about Henry, but he's not likely required to sign off on a Bello extension. Again, I don't see it. And even if he feels that way, is he really justified? Maybe he just thinks he's worth more than he really is at this point? My guess is this is all a big nothing burger. They're talking numbers. Maybe they reach a middle ground, maybe they don't.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2024 13:26:45 GMT -5
There are three groups of people in this thread.
1. People discussing the merits of the deal and what the extension would/should look like. 2. People who are generally happy when they hear good news about the team that they follow. 3. People who have somehow decided to twist this into a negative because they just like to be mad about stuff.
For group #3 - there is plenty of stuff to be actually mad about. You're really, really wearing on me and the rest of the posters on this forum. And if you think this applies to you, please do not reply asking if it applies to you. We've gotten through a long, frustrating off-season, and we've been pretty hands off as a staff in moderating that. Now that the games are starting and there is actual news, please be mindful of your posting quality. Thank you.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 22, 2024 14:04:11 GMT -5
Casas has already said his contract extension offer wasn't tough to turn down. It's not much of a leap to say the same is true for Bello. Doesn't mean it's true, but one player in a similar situation is saying this. I mean let's be honest, why should we trust WEEI. It's not like the Sox have a history of low balling their home grown stars...Lester, Xander....oh wait. I'm old enough to remember the first Xander extension
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 22, 2024 16:33:24 GMT -5
Agreed, a 5 year extension on a guy who can't be an FA for 5 years doesn't do much for the Sox side of things unless there was at least one if not two years of relatively team friendly options attached to the end of it. This is just not true. From a business perspective there is value in cost certainty. Not nearly as much value, but there is value. The five years of team control already give them some level of cost certainty. Bello is pretty unlikely to earn $30 million over the next five years, let alone more than that. They would just be giving up the ability to nontender him if the wheels fall off.
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