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Post by dirtdog on Mar 5, 2024 18:25:42 GMT -5
After watching him struggle in Anaheim last season I was luke warm at best when they signed him. Was never really sure what it was about him that drew Breslow, probably the short contract I guess. Anyway the whole throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks approach to building a staff has left a lot to be desired for a while. Hopefully the kids in the minors give us something to feel good about this summer.
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Post by cheers on Mar 5, 2024 19:46:34 GMT -5
This is really crummy news, but the (my perceived) reality is that a 77 win team probably just turned into a 74 win team - worse if a massive dump happens at the deadline.
Certainly, the ceiling just lowered more than that.
I don't fault the FO for this. I really WANTED Giolito at the trade deadline last year, and thought his 2nd half was likely an aberration.
I'll still enjoy watching baseball, and still enjoy watching the kids hopefully grow into a better 2025.
I'm also in the "don't bother with Monty" camp. See if we can pull a fringy #5 off the dust heap so we don't have to suffer through a whole bunch of Walter starts and opener games.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 5, 2024 20:11:32 GMT -5
Also the Red Sox option terms are terrible in this deal: $14M Club Option with less than 140 Innings Pitched in 2025.
Makes you wonder why they couldn't get an "or 2024" added in there.
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Post by sxfan on Mar 5, 2024 22:11:31 GMT -5
Also the Red Sox option terms are terrible in this deal: $14M Club Option with less than 140 Innings Pitched in 2025. Makes you wonder why they couldn't get an "or 2024" added in there. I don't think the 2026 option is reachable for Giolito. If he has Tommy John surgery in the next two weeks, he's looking at a return around late June next year the earliest, but probably after the all-star break more likely.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 5, 2024 22:45:20 GMT -5
Also the Red Sox option terms are terrible in this deal: $14M Club Option with less than 140 Innings Pitched in 2025. Makes you wonder why they couldn't get an "or 2024" added in there. He’s not throwing 140 innings next year if he’s coming off of TJ anyway
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 5, 2024 23:02:07 GMT -5
Also the Red Sox option terms are terrible in this deal: $14M Club Option with less than 140 Innings Pitched in 2025. Makes you wonder why they couldn't get an "or 2024" added in there. He’s not throwing 140 innings next year if he’s coming off of TJ anyway We'll see, but given there are only two reasons why 2024 was carved out from the 140 inning option term 1) Red Sox didn't ask (which would be odd given the term) 2) Red Sox asked and Giolito said no
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 5, 2024 23:50:12 GMT -5
He’s not throwing 140 innings next year if he’s coming off of TJ anyway We'll see, but given there are only two reasons why 2024 was carved out from the 140 inning option term 1) Red Sox didn't ask (which would be odd given the term) 2) Red Sox asked and Giolito said no Tbh I don’t even think it’s a “we’ll see” situation, it’s just not gonna happen if he has Tommy John. If he somehow does go past that threshold it’s because he logs 7 innings every start over 20 outings (unlikely for a guy coming off major elbow surgery) or so then he’d probably end up being worth the contract WAR wise If he looks decent upon his return the 14 mill option has value
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Post by bosoxnation on Mar 6, 2024 0:28:59 GMT -5
Can we just release him? Like what's the point of keeping him?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 6, 2024 0:33:17 GMT -5
Can we just release him? Like what's the point of keeping him? What's the point in releasing him? They're on the hook for the money anyways and there is a chance he comes back at some point in 2025 and helps them. Would you rather the Sox pay for him to possibly help some other team in 2025? What sense would that make? What would they gain by releasing him?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 6, 2024 9:03:42 GMT -5
Can we just release him? Like what's the point of keeping him? He’s injured he’s not dead. He will be back at some point during this contract believe it or not. Would you prefer they try to get some value out of the contract or would you prefer they get no value out of it while paying him to pitch for another team? I know I’d prefer the former!
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 9:16:56 GMT -5
Yea it would look really nice of the org to sign a guy a few months ago and then just release him when he tears his UCL with literally no upside to doing so..
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 10:44:41 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Mar 6, 2024 10:57:55 GMT -5
If anyone is interested in the early rehab process I'd recommend following Kevin Wilk (wilk_kevin on Instagram). He's the lead PT for the Andrews Ortho surgeons and routinely posts videos of athletes rehabbing. He had a lot of Whitlock content.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 6, 2024 11:00:44 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox were suspicious of Giolito's elbow going into this. The structure of this contract was weird from the get go, with the way the options are built in it seems like they maybe had concerns about this happening. It is obviously not great for 2024 but I am always all for having rehabbing pitchers under contract. If he comes back healthy in mid-2025 and looks good, they'll have a solid pitcher on a reasonable deal through 2026.
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Post by bg23 on Mar 6, 2024 11:16:08 GMT -5
getting a second opinion from Dugas rather than Andrews or ElAttrache could mean the internal bracing procedure is at least a possibility. Dugas is known for the procedure. An internal brace procedure would put him in line to pitch again early in 2025 if not by opening day.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 6, 2024 11:20:36 GMT -5
After the trade I didn't really expect Dugie to help the Red Sox this year, but it seems like I was wrong
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 11:28:16 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox were suspicious of Giolito's elbow going into this. The structure of this contract was weird from the get go, with the way the options are built in it seems like they maybe had concerns about this happening. It is obviously not great for 2024 but I am always all for having rehabbing pitchers under contract. If he comes back healthy in mid-2025 and looks good, they'll have a solid pitcher on a reasonable deal through 2026. Yeah I agree, that option looked very odd at the time but makes sense if TJS was top of their mind after looking at his arm imaging. There's a lot of pitchers with some elbow damage that are going to get through this season fine without going under the knife though.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 6, 2024 11:44:07 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox were suspicious of Giolito's elbow going into this. The structure of this contract was weird from the get go, with the way the options are built in it seems like they maybe had concerns about this happening. It is obviously not great for 2024 but I am always all for having rehabbing pitchers under contract. If he comes back healthy in mid-2025 and looks good, they'll have a solid pitcher on a reasonable deal through 2026. Yeah I agree, that option looked very odd at the time but makes sense if TJS was top of their mind after looking at his arm imaging. There's a lot of pitchers with some elbow damage that are going to get through this season fine without going under the knife though.
Yeah I am thinking that the Sox clearly thought something was up with the elbow. The 140 innings line in the sand is the tell to me. Outside of 2020 Giolito has never thrown fewer than 140 innings since becoming a full time starter in 2018. The only reason you have that is if there is an injury concern.
It makes this offseason even weirder that they let 3 pitchers walk and the only addition was a guy at a high risk of TJ though.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 11:48:53 GMT -5
I wonder if the Red Sox were suspicious of Giolito's elbow going into this. The structure of this contract was weird from the get go, with the way the options are built in it seems like they maybe had concerns about this happening. It is obviously not great for 2024 but I am always all for having rehabbing pitchers under contract. If he comes back healthy in mid-2025 and looks good, they'll have a solid pitcher on a reasonable deal through 2026. Yeah I agree, that option looked very odd at the time but makes sense if TJS was top of their mind after looking at his arm imaging. There's a lot of pitchers with some elbow damage that are going to get through this season fine without going under the knife though.
"How can we structure this guys' deal to best take advantage of the fact that he will very likely need TJS almost immediately?" That doesn't strike me as a conversation any front office has.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 11:51:24 GMT -5
I have a hard time seeing that they thought he was anymore or less at risk to need TJ than any other FA pitcher who is 29. It's a risk for any pitcher so obviously they didn't just have their head in the sand but if they thought that he was an extra high risk to need TJ in his first year then they wouldn't have offered him a player option for year 2. It would make no sense to offer someone a player option in that scenario.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 11:51:47 GMT -5
Yeah I agree, that option looked very odd at the time but makes sense if TJS was top of their mind after looking at his arm imaging. There's a lot of pitchers with some elbow damage that are going to get through this season fine without going under the knife though.
Yeah I am thinking that the Sox clearly thought something was up with the elbow. The 140 innings line in the sand is the tell to me. Outside of 2020 Giolito has never thrown fewer than 140 innings since becoming a full time starter in 2018. The only reason you have that is if there is an injury concern.
It makes this offseason even weirder that they let 3 pitchers walk and the only addition was a guy at a high risk of TJ though.
The injury concern is one that you have with EVERY single pitcher. Protecting yourself against possible injury is far different than saying, 'We think this guy's elbow is about to blow, but let's sign him anyway'.
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Post by 0ap0 on Mar 6, 2024 11:55:14 GMT -5
I have a hard time seeing that they thought he was anymore or less at risk to need TJ than any other FA pitcher who is 29. It's a risk for any pitcher so obviously they didn't just have their head in the sand but if they thought that he was an extra high risk to need TJ in his first year then they wouldn't have offered him a player option for year 2. It would make no sense to offer someone a player option in that scenario. I agree. And 140 innings seems like too big a number if this is specifically the kind of thing they had in mind as opposed to a more general "might have to shut it down for a while" fear.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 6, 2024 11:56:40 GMT -5
I would imagine teams are wary whenever a pitcher shows diminished stuff, even if the physical shows no signs of structural damage. Every pitch is a roll of the dice and all that.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 6, 2024 11:59:59 GMT -5
Yeah I agree, that option looked very odd at the time but makes sense if TJS was top of their mind after looking at his arm imaging. There's a lot of pitchers with some elbow damage that are going to get through this season fine without going under the knife though.
"How can we structure this guys' deal to best take advantage of the fact that he will very likely need TJS almost immediately?" That doesn't strike me as a conversation any front office has. I don't think they thought it was very likely but I do think they thought it was a possibility. Maybe 15-20%, something along those lines. A lot of guys can have a weak elbow that leads to poor results but it won't show up in any medical examination.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 12:04:00 GMT -5
"How can we structure this guys' deal to best take advantage of the fact that he will very likely need TJS almost immediately?" That doesn't strike me as a conversation any front office has. I don't think they thought it was very likely but I do think they thought it was a possibility. Maybe 15-20%, something along those lines. A lot of guys can have a weak elbow that leads to poor results but it won't show up in any medical examination. Okay, but it's literally a possibility with every pitcher. Heck it's pretty much a strong possibility with any pitcher at this point in time. Young-old and in between, it seems like more and more pitchers have needed it the last few years. I really don't buy the idea that something in his medicals led them to believe he was any more or less risky than anyone else and if there was then they are stupid for giving him a 2nd year player option. I guess at this point in time I would like to think that Breslow and Co. are not stupid until proven otherwise.
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