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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by elguapo on Jun 30, 2013 19:44:44 GMT -5
On a MiL gameday thread we were discussing how common it is to see a 20-year-old put up the kind of numbers Mookie is (let's say: age 19-21, BB>K, OPS>850, isoP>.125 - of course his line is much better at present) in the South Atlantic League and where those prospects ended up. I did some searching and found very, very few comparables over the last 10 years. The few players with BB/K>1 were generally older than 21, and of the rest many had weak bats. (Surely a few players must have small samples of this level of play but were promoted before establishing a reasonable sample for comparison.) Two familiar names that came up: Travis Denker & Ivan De Jesus. De Jesus, a SS/2B out of PR, put up a .277 / .361 / .327 / .688 slash with 63 BB and 85 Ks as a very young 19 year old (May 1st bday). He maintained a strong walk rate up the ladder and is now waiting a chance in the majors, having put up a career AAA .304 / .357 / .422 / .778 line. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=dejesu001ivaTravis Denker, a 2B-3B, hit .290 / .414 / .506 / .921 in parts of three seasons in the Sally League - ages 17(!), 19, and 20. After crushing the league to the tune of a .973 OPS at age 19 with Columbus, he struggled in a 31-game stint at high-A Vero Beach, and repeated a similar pattern the next season: struggled at Vero Beach, demoted to Columbus where he mastered the strike zone with 65 BB and only 37 Ks. He was traded to the Giants as the PTBNL in he Mark Sweeney trade, and at age 22 quickly moved up the ladder to AAA, finding renewed success in the PCL. Denker was claimed off waivers by the Padres, then by the Red Sox, and has bounced around since, never repeating his 62-game success at AAA Fresno. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=denker001traOf the two, Denker's tale is peculiar and De Jesus a closer model for what I would expect from Betts, if you make an imaginative statistical adjustment to account for the difference in ages. But it bears repeating that Betts' performance is literally exceptional.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2013 20:11:39 GMT -5
Wow. Travis Denker. THERE'S a name I'd forgotten
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Post by elguapo on Jul 1, 2013 9:11:20 GMT -5
Other players in the ballpark: 20-year-olds Dexter Fowler, 296/373/462/835, 43-79 BB-K Chris Carter, 291/383/522/906, 67-112 * Desmond Jennings, 315/401/465/866, 45-53 Corban Joseph, 300/381/418/799, 49-61 Domonic Brown, 291/382/417/798, 64-72 Lorenzo Cain, 307/384/425/809, 58-104 * Steve Lombardozzi, 296/375/395/771, 62/80 * Taylor Green, 327/406/516/922, 51-65 19-year-olds Caleb Gindl, 307/388/474/862, 63-144 Lars Anderson, 288/385/443/828, 71-112 Marcus Sanders, 300/407/400/807, 69-90 Nick Weglarz, 276/395/497/892, 82-129 Robbie Grossman, 266/373/355/728, 75-164 21-year-olds * Eric Young, 295/391/409/800, 67-75 Jose Valdez, 292/359/487/846, 45-64 Max Ramirez, 292/417/454/871, 84-99 Reid Fronk, 287/398/492/890, 74-103 Ryan Lavarnway, 285/367/540/907, 50-113 Jennings, Lombardozzi, Green, and Young (a young 21) look like the closest comparables.
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Post by onbase on Jul 2, 2013 6:07:18 GMT -5
The remarkable Marco Scutaro.This link isn't about prospects, but it is about success without traditional tools. After reading this thread, it sounds as though Mookie could be, like Nava, a player in this mold. But really, how can someone named Mookie Betts not be good?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 2, 2013 6:35:11 GMT -5
Mookie Betts sitting on top of the Single A SCOUT leaderboard (for prospects) for those who follow fan graphs: link
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 2, 2013 7:43:17 GMT -5
The remarkable Marco Scutaro.This link isn't about prospects, but it is about success without traditional tools. After reading this thread, it sounds as though Mookie could be, like Nava, a player in this mold. But really, how can someone named Mookie Betts not be good? The author has a weird definition of "tools". Do contact and glove not count anymore? Did I not get a memo that went out about this?
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 9, 2013 14:47:06 GMT -5
@evanlepler: Mookie Betts' Greenville performance has been too good for too long. He's now a member of the Salem Red Sox! t.co/b97W5Zy07wAyyyy Mookie!!! God bless that Greenville squad now...
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 9, 2013 15:14:09 GMT -5
Congrats to Mookie!! Looking forward to seeing how his skills translate to A+ ball
ADD: I wonder if this says anything about the longer term prognosis for Coyle's injury? Injury report days 7-day DL on June 6, and hasn't played since May 29. Knee injury - wonder if it's worse than expected?
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Post by elguapo on Jul 9, 2013 15:22:39 GMT -5
Final line at Greenville:
.296 / .418 / .477 / .895, 8hr, 33xbh, 58-40 BB-SO, 18-2 SB-CS
I don't think his brief home run outburst will be replicated, at least not any time soon, but I think he'll continue making solid contact and showing exemplary on-base ability at Salem.
Wonder how Coyle's rehab is coming...
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 9, 2013 16:34:10 GMT -5
Apropos of nothing, but Mookie Betts was born the same week as Xander Bogaerts.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 9, 2013 16:41:34 GMT -5
The remarkable Marco Scutaro.This link isn't about prospects, but it is about success without traditional tools. After reading this thread, it sounds as though Mookie could be, like Nava, a player in this mold. But really, how can someone named Mookie Betts not be good? The author has a weird definition of "tools". Do contact and glove not count anymore? Did I not get a memo that went out about this? Come on, I think you know that in baseball there is traditionally a difference between what people call "tools" and "skills." Contact and defense are more skills, to me, although they can certainly be enhanced by tools, if that makes any sense. Everyone fawns over the guys with incredible athleticism, as they should, but you don't necessarily need that to succeed in baseball.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2013 21:39:06 GMT -5
Congrats to Mookie!! Looking forward to seeing how his skills translate to A+ ball ADD: I wonder if this says anything about the longer term prognosis for Coyle's injury? Injury report days 7-day DL on June 6, and hasn't played since May 29. Knee injury - wonder if it's worse than expected? I had the same thought re: Coyle. He's been rehabbing in Fort Myers. Probably got to the point where the organization said screw it and promoted him, and will deal with the PT issue later if/when Coyle's back in Salem.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 9, 2013 22:56:09 GMT -5
Congrats to Mookie!! Looking forward to seeing how his skills translate to A+ ball ADD: I wonder if this says anything about the longer term prognosis for Coyle's injury? Injury report days 7-day DL on June 6, and hasn't played since May 29. Knee injury - wonder if it's worse than expected? I had the same thought re: Coyle. He's been rehabbing in Fort Myers. Probably got to the point where the organization said screw it and promoted him, and will deal with the PT issue later if/when Coyle's back in Salem. Would promoting Marrero to Portland so Mookie could get a little PT at short while Coyle plays second work?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2013 22:59:56 GMT -5
I had the same thought re: Coyle. He's been rehabbing in Fort Myers. Probably got to the point where the organization said screw it and promoted him, and will deal with the PT issue later if/when Coyle's back in Salem. Would promoting Marrero to Portland so Mookie could get a little PT at short while Coyle plays second work? Why would you promote Marrero though? He's been ok, but he's not setting the world on fire at the plate or anything. He'd probably get eaten up by Double-A pitching.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 9, 2013 23:47:05 GMT -5
Would promoting Marrero to Portland so Mookie could get a little PT at short while Coyle plays second work? Why would you promote Marrero though? He's been ok, but he's not setting the world on fire at the plate or anything. He'd probably get eaten up by Double-A pitching. Just because he's old for the league and obviously the PT situation in Salem. I don't think he'd get eaten alive I think he'd struggle, but I'd like to see him challenged even more.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jul 9, 2013 23:59:00 GMT -5
There is a risk with rushing prospects. They could be overmatched and lose their confidence.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2013 8:41:40 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 10, 2013 13:48:18 GMT -5
Wessel (The Netherlands): Hi Jim, what's your opinion on Mookie Betts. Red Sox minor league 2b?
Jim Callis: Athletic second baseman who can hit. Also one of the best bowlers in baseball.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 17, 2013 13:16:36 GMT -5
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jul 17, 2013 18:39:53 GMT -5
I love this kid. Looks very mature.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 2, 2013 1:48:05 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2013 12:10:15 GMT -5
As Hatfield pointed out on Twitter, it will be interesting to see whether Betts gets some time at shortstop with Marrero's promotion and Coyle presumably ready to be activated to the Salem roster. My gut is that would be a good idea - he's fringy to make it as a starting second baseman, so the ability to play an adequate shortstop increases his chances of sticking in the majors as a utility player immensely.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 13, 2013 14:14:14 GMT -5
Betts and Marrero may make a very appealing trade pair when, and if, the Sox find the right deal. In two or three years they could be the middle infielders for a rebuilding team, and pretty decent, and exciting, ones.
If that doesn't happen, one of them may be the future utility IF for the Sox.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,914
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 8:22:57 GMT -5
I'm a big fan of Clay Davenport's Peak Projected Translations (as expressed in EqA a/k/a TAv, which Clay also invented when he was at BP), far and away the best metric for adjusting ml performance for both age and level.
Oh, wait, it's the only metric that attempts to adjust ml performance for age and level. So, yeah, it should be taken with a grain of salt. And yet the numbers often make a lot of sense. I've talked to Clay about his methodology, and it's very granular ... he's looked at how every separate component tends to project.
For instance, I've independently found that SA seems to be even more predictive than OBP for prospect success, in that a lot of high profile prospect washouts have been low-SA guys; call it the Sean Burroughs Syndrome. Clay's methodology factors in such truths automatically.
Anyway, Mookie is having a tremendous year according to Clay's numbers: a .284 projected peak EqA. Pedroia was .294 (not .300 as I said originally) in his MVP season.
Some recent Sox prospects who never had a season that good in the minors: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
I've got a spreadsheet with 81 Sox hitting prospects, 2003-13 -- everyone who ever made BA's top 30 (or 31), plus Nava and Jeff Bailey who made it to MLB off the depth chart. I'm about halfway done with looking up all the EqA's (and calculating the yearly numbers for guys who played for more than one team) of the guys who were ever any good (skipping Place, Renfroe, etc.). Almost no big-name prospects are left, so this leader board for full-season ball might be final.
The number in parentheses is level played at, where 1 = GCL, 2 = A-, 3 = A, 4 = A+, and so on up to 7 = MLB. Fractions indicate split years. It's the one other thing that's relevant besides the EqA number, which already includes age relative to level -- because the closer you get to MLB, the more weight the projection has. The final number is BA's subsequent prospect ranking.
.307 Garin Cecchini 2013 (4.4) .303 Lars Anderson 2008 (4.3) #1 [quite possible his Lancaster park adjustment is too small] .301 Jackie Bradley, Jr. 2012 (4.5) #2 .300 Xander Bogaerts 2013 (5.5) [Clay's age relative to league adjustments are definitely conservative] .300 Brandon Moss 2004 (3.2) #2 .299 Ryan Lavarnway 2011 (5.6) #9 .295 Xander Bogaerts 2012 (4.2) #1 .294 Anthony Rizzo 2008 (3.5) #22 .291 Ryan Lavarnway 2009 (3.0) [depth chart!] .289 Anthony Rizzo 2010 (6.3) Padres #2 .288 Jed Lowrie 2007 (5.3) #5 .287 Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 (6.1) #2 .287 Ryan Lavarnway 2010 (4.3) #16 .285 Lars Anderson 2007 (3.1) #3 .284 Anthony Rizzo 2009 (4.8) #8 .284 Bryce Brentz 2011 (3.6) #5 .284 Mookie Betts 2013 (3.3)
When you adjust for position, you get this, with Lavarnway obviously a special case, since as a DH or 1B he's nowhere in sight:
.314 Bogaerts 2013 .313 Lavarnway 2011 .309 Bogaerts 2012 .306 Cecchini 2013 .305 Lavarnway 2009 .302 Bradley 2012 .302 Lowrie 2007 .301 Lavarnway 2010 .294 Bogaerts 2011 .290 Betts 2013
Lars we know was a head case, and Lavarnway collapsed at the plate when he started to concentrate on catching. So the remaining reasons for skepticism are Moss -- who's not exactly been a bust -- and Brentz, who followed his .284 with .264 and .267. But corner outfielders average .276 in MLB versus .259 for 2B; even if Betts faded like that, he'd project to be an above-average 2B.
Oh, and, yes, if you exclude Lavarnway ... then Bogaerts, Cecchini, Bradley, and Betts between them have six of the best seven prospect hitting seasons of the entire system since 2003. I don't know which is more surprising: that basic fact (all of them better than Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Hanley, or Lars' best), or the inclusion of Betts.
Betts at #25 is, IMHO, just silly. I'd have him at #14, after Vazquez at #13.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 15, 2013 9:38:38 GMT -5
Betts at #25 is, IMHO, just silly. I'd have him at #14, after Vazquez at #13. That's a good topic for the Meta forum; I'm sure there will be some changes based on his recent success at Salem. As I've said before, Mookie's performance this year is literally exceptional. He's still only 20 and seems likely to end the season with BB>K and a healthy isoP at high-A.
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