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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2016 8:50:19 GMT -5
Now that I've figured out how baserunning figures into WAR, here's a bWAR + Clutch ranking I trust. Ties are listed alphabetically. 9.0 Trout 7.4 Beltre 7.4 Betts 7.4 Donaldson 6.6 Machado 6.5 Seager 6.3 Pedroia (added with edit!) 5.4 Altuve Update: 9.0 Trout 7.9 Betts 7.6 Beltre 7.5 Donaldson 6.6 Seager 6.5 Machado 6.3 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2016 7:15:41 GMT -5
Update: 9.0 Trout 7.9 Betts 7.6 Beltre 7.5 Donaldson 6.6 Seager 6.5 Machado 6.3 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve Update: 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.7 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 0.9 5.6 Altuve
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Post by 0ap0 on Sept 21, 2016 11:20:39 GMT -5
Update: 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.7 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 0.9 5.6 Altuve 9.8 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 5.0 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve
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Post by awall on Sept 22, 2016 10:37:08 GMT -5
Now factor "Most Valuable" based on actual cost to the team and I think it truly shows the impact of guys like Mookie (and JBJ, Xander, etc). Mookie is most valuable from the standpoint of roi, because he has produced what he has while allowing the team to allocate resources to shore up other positions. Does anyone else in MLB do that to the extent Mookie has this year?
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 22, 2016 10:40:20 GMT -5
Now factor "Most Valuable" based on actual cost to the team and I think it truly shows the impact of guys like Mookie (and JBJ, Xander, etc). Mookie is most valuable from the standpoint of roi, because he has produced what he has while allowing the team to allocate resources to shore up other positions. Does anyone else in MLB do that to the extent Mookie has this year? No, he's the best trade asset in baseball from that perspective. Wouldn't trade him for any other player in baseball.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 22, 2016 11:59:34 GMT -5
Now factor "Most Valuable" based on actual cost to the team and I think it truly shows the impact of guys like Mookie (and JBJ, Xander, etc). Mookie is most valuable from the standpoint of roi, because he has produced what he has while allowing the team to allocate resources to shore up other positions. Does anyone else in MLB do that to the extent Mookie has this year? No, he's the best trade asset in baseball from that perspective. Wouldn't trade him for any other player in baseball. Bryant maybe
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 10:08:36 GMT -5
Update: 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.7 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 0.9 5.6 Altuve 9.8 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 5.0 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve No, because the difference between the standard positional DH adjustment and one based on actual DH hitting is about 0.9 runs per 150 games. It's not an arbitrary number but an absolutely real one. The DH position adjustment is based on how easy it is to field your position when you're the DH. It ignores the fact that it's harder to hit when you're the DH that when you're not. That's really well-established and it absolutely should be part of the adjustment. My 0.9 runs is admittedly an estimate, but it's in the ballpark. It includes in part another confounding factor, the scarcity of elite hitting. Since a DH does not have to be able to field at all, you would expect that there would be this group of players who were great hitters and terrible fielders, that they'd constitute the bulk of the DH usage, and that as a result, DH offense would be higher than 1B offense. But that's never been the case. There's no such group of hitters. So you get a complex situation where teams choose their DH based on the roster availability of players who are better fielders but weaker hitters. The DH positional adjustment has to factor in not only that it's harder to hit when you're the DH than when you're not, but the fact that the benefit to the team by using player X at DH and using an inferior player, but one with better defense, in the field, may not be fairly proportioned between the two players if you give none of the defensive value to the DH. He is creating the other player's defensive opportunities by being the superior hitter. This is really easy to see if you imagine an NL team playing in an AL park. They want to add the best remaining bench bat to the lineup. There's a solid chance that that guy is a better fielder than the starter at his position, even though he's weaker overall. For instance, the best bench bat is a backup RF who is a better defender but not nearly as good as a hitter. He goes to RF, the RF is that day's DH, and because he gets hammered by the DH positional adjustment, the backup RF is measured as more valuable that day than the starter, who is a better RFer. Now repeat that 150 times.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 23, 2016 10:56:14 GMT -5
9.8 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 5.0 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve No, because the difference between the standard positional DH adjustment and one based on actual DH hitting is about 0.9 runs per 150 games. It's not an arbitrary number but an absolutely real one. The DH position adjustment is based on how easy it is to field your position when you're the DH. It ignores the fact that it's harder to hit when you're the DH that when you're not. That's really well-established and it absolutely should be part of the adjustment. My 0.9 runs is admittedly an estimate, but it's in the ballpark. It includes in part another confounding factor, the scarcity of elite hitting. Since a DH does not have to be able to field at all, you would expect that there would be this group of players who were great hitters and terrible fielders, that they'd constitute the bulk of the DH usage, and that as a result, DH offense would be higher than 1B offense. But that's never been the case. There's no such group of hitters. So you get a complex situation where teams choose their DH based on the roster availability of players who are better fielders but weaker hitters. The DH positional adjustment has to factor in not only that it's harder to hit when you're the DH than when you're not, but the fact that the benefit to the team by using player X at DH and using an inferior player, but one with better defense, in the field, may not be fairly proportioned between the two players if you give none of the defensive value to the DH. He is creating the other player's defensive opportunities by being the superior hitter. This is really easy to see if you imagine an NL team playing in an AL park. They want to add the best remaining bench bat to the lineup. There's a solid chance that that guy is a better fielder than the starter at his position, even though he's weaker overall. For instance, the best bench bat is a backup RF who is a better defender but not nearly as good as a hitter. He goes to RF, the RF is that day's DH, and because he gets hammered by the DH positional adjustment, the backup RF is measured as more valuable that day than the starter, who is a better RFer. Now repeat that 150 times. Interesting never thought of it the way you are explaining it. Papi is gone next year. Two schools of thought appear to be hanley full time or give positional players periodic rest and fill the position with several players. Does that mean hanley should not be the full time dh based on the above?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2016 11:21:43 GMT -5
Interesting never thought of it the way you are explaining it. Papi is gone next year. Two schools of thought appear to be hanley full time or give positional players periodic rest and fill the position with several players. Does that mean hanley should not be the full time dh based on the above? No, because Hanley has hit amazingly, preposterously better when he's the DH, so much so that it's almost certain that it's for real. And he's still a below-average defender at 1B. Like Papi, he'll be an ideal DH.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 23, 2016 22:26:51 GMT -5
Curious as to what you think those aspects might be. I've been mentally backpedalling on this all day at work. I know that you are essentially right. He's probably not going to get THAT much better. I was thinking 35 SB wouldn't be out of the question, but maybe he's so efficient because he picks his spots and isn't going to try to steal that many. I was thinking that he could be more consistent in his hitting, he's a little streaky, IMO. I think that if he had hit in the 4 spot for the whole year his numbers might be better right there, but I really don't know if that's true. Probably not significantly. I just think of Mookie like DeepJohn thinks about Kopech and TheLavernwayGuy thought about TheYaleGuy. He's superman. ETA: I realized that the fact that he reached his ceiling at such a young age is significant mostly because he will (hopefully) give you more years of elite production in his (hopefully) full Red Sox career. I'm SO TIRED of responding to this stuff but at no point did I ever think Lavarnway was probably going to be an all star even, let alone a superman. I thought he had a chance to stick at catcher. That's it. Yet, people somehow read more into it. People want to think what they want to think, no matter what facts are presented to them over and over. I don't think Mookie gets that much better or even maintains this level. He is real near his prime right now. He will get hurt and degrade physically over time. He's diving all over the place, stealing bases, getting lots of PT. He's going to hurt his body just like Pedroia did and so many players do and particularly base stealing outfielders. Maybe have less speed and more pop some years but we will be real lucky to get 2-3 more years like this from him. I love his game and think that contact rate and bat speed will be with him for a long time and be a star but we can't expect him to maintain this level of MVP type performance year after year.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 23, 2016 22:40:11 GMT -5
The Mookie Betts love affair is astonishing to me. 5'9" 156lbs, 5th rd pick in low A. Having a nice 2 week stretch, let's all simmer down. I wonder if people would feel the same things if he were white and his name was Jim Smith. I'm glad he's doing well and has talent but let not get all over his ranking as revisionists over a couple week stretch. I any of you complaining ha him in your preseason top 30 then fire away. If not simmer. The differences between 30 and 50 is very very fluid. Most guys are long shots and the preference is given to the guys who are closer. He going to be an MVP candidate in just a couple of years! Mark my words!
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Post by Coreno on Sept 24, 2016 0:42:08 GMT -5
Man, the first few pages of this thread really are gold in retrospect. Thanks for that.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 24, 2016 19:33:29 GMT -5
In Victorino's best defensive year he had a 23 DRS, in right field I believe in 2013. Mookie is at 32 already, on top of all the other excellent things he does. Another example of outstanding base running today and look at his hitting numbers. The kid is just excellent in every facet of his game. So much fun to watch.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 25, 2016 0:27:08 GMT -5
Betts is such a key piece to our team this year in all phases.
In my mind he deserves the mvp.
But even if he does not win it, as long as he doing what he does, we will continue to marvel.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2016 1:11:41 GMT -5
In Victorino's best defensive year he had a 23 DRS, in right field I believe in 2013. Mookie is at 32 already, on top of all the other excellent things he does. Another example of outstanding base running today and look at his hitting numbers. The kid is just excellent in every facet of his game. So much fun to watch. Victorino did it in just 913 innings, though. Mookie has tied Gerardo Parra, 2013, with the most runs ever saved in a season (DRS) by a RF. Leader board for DRS per 150 games, minimum 750 innings: 41 Gerardo Parra '13 34 Franklin Gutierrez '08 34 Shane Victorino '13 33 Adam Eaton '16 33 Mookie Betts '16 Victorino (also 10th) and Heyward (7th and 9th) are the only guys to ever have two seasons of +24 DRS/150 or better.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 25, 2016 1:12:25 GMT -5
I've been mentally backpedalling on this all day at work. I know that you are essentially right. He's probably not going to get THAT much better. I was thinking 35 SB wouldn't be out of the question, but maybe he's so efficient because he picks his spots and isn't going to try to steal that many. I was thinking that he could be more consistent in his hitting, he's a little streaky, IMO. I think that if he had hit in the 4 spot for the whole year his numbers might be better right there, but I really don't know if that's true. Probably not significantly. I just think of Mookie like DeepJohn thinks about Kopech and TheLavernwayGuy thought about TheYaleGuy. He's superman. ETA: I realized that the fact that he reached his ceiling at such a young age is significant mostly because he will (hopefully) give you more years of elite production in his (hopefully) full Red Sox career. I'm SO TIRED of responding to this stuff but at no point did I ever think Lavarnway was probably going to be an all star even, let alone a superman. I thought he had a chance to stick at catcher. That's it. Yet, people somehow read more into it. People want to think what they want to think, no matter what facts are presented to them over and over. I don't think Mookie gets that much better or even maintains this level. He is real near his prime right now. He will get hurt and degrade physically over time. He's diving all over the place, stealing bases, getting lots of PT. He's going to hurt his body just like Pedroia did and so many players do and particularly base stealing outfielders. Maybe have less speed and more pop some years but we will be real lucky to get 2-3 more years like this from him. I love his game and think that contact rate and bat speed will be with him for a long time and be a star but we can't expect him to maintain this level of MVP type performance year after year. Prediction that next ten years Mookie is an allstar if he stays with Sox. He'll be hitting in many friendly hitting parks along with he'll probably always have protection. I won't predict super or just all-star - but I will add I don't know how many years he can have of hitting 31 home runs. I believe the ball is juiced this year and don't know how many years the ball will be juiced going forward.
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Post by thursty on Sept 25, 2016 6:43:28 GMT -5
As a leadoff hitter, Mookie profiled as a cleanup hitter. 355/546/135 (6BB/12.8K)
As a cleanup hitter, he's profiled as a leadoff hitter 397/536/146 (8.7BB/7.6K)
Of course, wherever he's hit, he's profiled as great
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2016 10:06:23 GMT -5
As a leadoff hitter, Mookie profiled as a cleanup hitter. 355/546/135 (6BB/12.8K) As a cleanup hitter, he's profiled as a leadoff hitter 397/536/146 (8.7BB/7.6K) Of course, wherever he's hit, he's profiled as great You really have to include his hitting 3rd with the hitting 4th. As a leadoff hitter, he had a 116 table-set and 130 knock-in (16% better than average at providing net RBI opportunities for teammates, 30% better at knocking his teammates in). As a 3 and 4 guy, he's 124 and 131. I might go Pedroia, Betts, Ortiz, Ramirez, Bradley, Bogaerts, Shaw, Leon, Benintendi right now.
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Post by thursty on Sept 25, 2016 10:18:28 GMT -5
"You really have to include his hitting 3rd with the hitting 4th."
I did
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2016 12:46:10 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Sept 30, 2016 13:00:25 GMT -5
It's a win-win situation for me. I love Trout and think he's most deserving of MVP but Mookie is Mookie and I can't say I'd complain if he walked away with it.
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Post by 0ap0 on Sept 30, 2016 14:18:11 GMT -5
9.8 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 5.0 No, because the difference between the standard positional DH adjustment and one based on actual DH hitting is about 0.9 runs per 150 games. It's not an arbitrary number but an absolutely real one. Oh, I know -- just teasing, and giving Ortiz extra value points because he's awesome.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2016 16:35:05 GMT -5
No, because the difference between the standard positional DH adjustment and one based on actual DH hitting is about 0.9 runs per 150 games. It's not an arbitrary number but an absolutely real one. Oh, I know -- just teasing, and giving Ortiz extra value points because he's awesome. Oh, an awesomeness adjustment! I have no problem with that at all. Why didn't you say that in the first place? Next you'll be telling me that my ruby slippers have had the power to get me back to Kansas all along. Seriously, Papi will be a first-ballot HOFer in large part because of the equivalent of an awesomeness adjustment. Darn, isn't it time to update my adjusted bWAR rankings?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2016 16:55:46 GMT -5
Update: 9.0 Trout 7.9 Betts 7.6 Beltre 7.5 Donaldson 6.6 Seager 6.5 Machado 6.3 Pedroia 5.6 Altuve Update: 9.6 Trout 8.5 Betts 7.7 Beltre 7.4 Donaldson 6.8 Machado 6.7 Seager 6.1 Pedroia 5.7 Ortiz, if you base positional adjustment on actual DH hitting and add 0.9 5.6 Altuve Update: 10.3 Trout 9.1 Betts 8.3 Cano. Huge few weeks in WPA 8.0 Beltre 7.5 Donaldson 7.3 Pedroia 6.5 Machado 6.5 Seager 6.1 Ortiz with DH adjustment of +.9 5.7 Altuve Sox with the clutch adjustment (which is included) noted: 9.1 Betts (-0.3) 7.3 Pedroia (+1.7) 5.2 Ortiz (+0.3) 4.6 Bogaerts (+1.1) 4.3 Bradley (-1.2)
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2016 22:42:36 GMT -5
Just came to post it. Disregards some of Betts's baserunning value, and I think the defensive difference is more real than they give credit for (although Trout plays CF), but the OBP difference is just too much to overlook for me. Maybe if Mookie were around .400, but Trout just has a huge lead in "not making outs." That said, I have a tough time calling a guy on a terrible team "valuable." But given that he's really the only reason to go to an Angels game, maybe his value is in singlehandedly keeping afloat a franchise whose talent base, other than him, has been mismanaged into oblivion.
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