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Post by amfox1 on May 29, 2013 17:37:36 GMT -5
As was posted in the draft thread (sort of) If the Sox pick and both Frazier and Stewart are available who do you think they pick? Callis thinks Stewart. I tend to agree. His ceiling is higher than Frazier's.
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Post by amfox1 on May 29, 2013 17:40:50 GMT -5
Those are some decent picks you have going to the MFY's, Adam. I don't like it. Kaminsky is rising quickly and may not last to #26. I live nearly and the buzz is palpable. In any event, they will potentially get three good players.
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Post by amfox1 on May 29, 2013 17:43:52 GMT -5
At #4 is Steward rep. by Boras? This might be an issue that get's him to the Sox. I know there slotted but I believe this will still happen once in a while espec. if the player isn't crazy about the team drafting him. No. Stewart is being advised by Derek Braunecker.
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Post by amfox1 on May 29, 2013 17:58:28 GMT -5
If we do go college pitcher in the second round, which is something I expect, I hope we pick either Blair or Ziomek. Ziomek projects as a lefty bullpen arm, due to his unique mechanics. Fringe average FB (90-93 at best, 88-91 typically), which plays up because it comes from a difficult angle with movement. Plus curve and plus changeup. Has faced top competition in college. Personally, I'm not a fan of taking him at #45. Blair projects as a back-end starter (if he can develop a third pitch) or bullpen arm (if not). Fringe average FB (90-95) with movement. Average-plus changeup but no third pitch above average. Outstanding makeup. Had a very good Cape League last year. Of the two, I much prefer Blair to Ziomek. But I prefer Reed to both. He's tall, athletic, with a clean and repeatable delivery and two plus pitches. He has a higher ceiling than both Blair and Ziomek. Scouting Report Reed has the goods. He offers size (listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 lbs.), athleticism, fastball velocity (92-95 mph), an out-pitch breaking ball (low-80s curveball), a clean and repeatable delivery and solid makeup.
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Post by hammerhead on May 30, 2013 7:36:24 GMT -5
I think the Sox go with Frazier or Stewart at #7 and Boldt or hunter Green (if he slips) at #45 , I see them drafting the highest ceiling guys in both spots regardless of position. Maybe someone with higher upside then Boldt falls to #45 for signability reasons. It wouldn't surprise me to see the sox go with two outfielders, or two pitchers rather then a mix simply best available talent, team needs shouldn't matter and they won't.
I'm hoping that they stay away from the "safe" high floor guys with any pick, not because they went safe last year, but because they won't see pool money like this (hopefully) for a long time.
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 8:39:59 GMT -5
I think the Sox go with Frazier or Stewart at #7 and Boldt or hunter Green (if he slips) at #45 , I see them drafting the highest ceiling guys in both spots regardless of position. Maybe someone with higher upside then Boldt falls to #45 for signability reasons. It wouldn't surprise me to see the sox go with two outfielders, or two pitchers rather then a mix simply best available talent, team needs shouldn't matter and they won't. I'm hoping that they stay away from the "safe" high floor guys with any pick, not because they went safe last year, but because they won't see pool money like this (hopefully) for a long time. There are rumblings Boldt might be a tough sign. Stewart should be sign-able with the money at 7, but he is not going to be an easy sign either.
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Post by hughlangin on May 30, 2013 8:53:44 GMT -5
I was liking Boldt too as a possible pick. I'm wondering if the Sox have the ability to take the top talent available at #7 and still go after a guy like Boldt? or if he may be expensive, could a guy like Josh Bell be in play? or is the possibility of the Sox taking 2 high school outfielders with their first 2 picks just crazy?
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Post by joshv02 on May 30, 2013 9:17:52 GMT -5
At #4 is Steward rep. by Boras? Stewart's agent is Derek Braunecker (same as Cliff Lee).(Deerrrrrr. Read second page, Josh.)
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2013 9:39:06 GMT -5
I was liking Boldt too as a possible pick. I'm wondering if the Sox have the ability to take the top talent available at #7 and still go after a guy like Boldt? or if he may be expensive, could a guy like Josh Bell be in play? or is the possibility of the Sox taking 2 high school outfielders with their first 2 picks just crazy? Yes, but I would not expect a Frazier/Boldt combo. I don't think the Red Sox would pick two HS OFers with their top two picks.
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2013 9:46:07 GMT -5
There are rumblings Boldt might be a tough sign. Stewart should be sign-able with the money at 7, but he is not going to be an easy sign either. I've read that Boldt may be looking for first-round money, which is not that much of a stretch (the difference between #25 and #45 is approx $650k). Stewart's going to sign for slot (or slightly above) if picked in the top 7 - I wouldn't be too concerned. The interesting news is that Meadows' advisors are apparently letting teams know that he'd be open to a deal to move up in the draft. If Meadows is willing to sign for $500k under slot, it then makes it much easier for that team to draft high-ceiling talent later (not suggesting that BOS should pick him, but I could see a team like MIA taking him to save money).
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 10:10:46 GMT -5
There are rumblings Boldt might be a tough sign. Stewart should be sign-able with the money at 7, but he is not going to be an easy sign either. I've read that Boldt may be looking for first-round money, which is not that much of a stretch (the difference between #25 and #45 is approx $650k). Stewart's going to sign for slot (or slightly above) if picked in the top 7 - I wouldn't be too concerned. But assuming your first and second pick both want above slot (and with no other picks above the third round) then you are going to have problems with the overall bonus pool. Say Boldt wants $650,000 above slot, and Stewart wants $500,000 above slot? what if they negotiate for even more? Stewart has tons of leverage, after all. Are you just going to draft college seniors in rounds 3-6? I suppose you could, if you honestly believe that Boldt is that much better than the available options at 45, but do they? I fully support disregarding sign-ability at pick 7, but if they do draft a difficult sign at 7, I would need to think long and hard about drafting a difficult sign at 45.
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Post by hammerhead on May 30, 2013 10:57:06 GMT -5
I wouldn't... This draft is very top heavy. It's not outrageous to think a team like Boston that hasn't picked this high in a whole lot of years, throws big money at their top two picks if they think the talent there is that special. Sure there could be some gems in the later rounds and possibly some signability guys who fall, but I think they will draft the best talent early and sort out the money later. Remember the top 2 picks are protected.
That is why I'm thinking they won't worry about position or H.S. vs. college or position vs. pitcher in the 1st two picks they'll simply take the highest cieling talent.
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Post by hughlangin on May 30, 2013 11:10:26 GMT -5
This is what I'm thinking too. Drafting not one but 2 high schoolers, both outfielders seems unlikely. But is it more unlikely because the odds of both players being the best talent available when their pick comes up is small? or is it more of the Sox wanting a pitcher over a position player or wanting to augment a high school pick with a college pick? (this is assuming we draft Clint Frazier) Can we really use Sox past draft strategy to imply how they will pick in this years draft? So much is different this year, mainly the high pick and the new rules. If last year is any precedent it seems a good bet that they would pick a college arm with their second pick. Also in general in the past they have signed more college players in the first two rounds (particularly the first) So the idea of drafting a Boldt with the second pick may not be a good guess.
Maybe last years draft is still bothering me a bit (even though I have high hopes for Callahan and Buttrey). But I'm very happy with out system now, and I'd rather see the Sox take chances and go for upside than sign safe college arms. I understand they only have so much money to throw around so drafting some easy signs like they did last year is inevitable. But I see that for certain in the 5th round on. I dunno.....Thursday can't come soon enough!!!!
May I also add that this thread is awesome, and I've really enjoyed doing some homework on many of the names mention. It's easy to get caught up with who the #7 pick will be. But in 5 years from now who the Sox 2nd 3rd pick is may be just as important to this team.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 30, 2013 12:50:41 GMT -5
I was liking Boldt too as a possible pick. I'm wondering if the Sox have the ability to take the top talent available at #7 and still go after a guy like Boldt? or if he may be expensive, could a guy like Josh Bell be in play? or is the possibility of the Sox taking 2 high school outfielders with their first 2 picks just crazy? Yes, but I would not expect a Frazier/Boldt combo. I don't think the Red Sox would pick two HS OFers with their top two picks. If they exclude a guy who's at the top of their board because he's a HS player and they already selected a HS player then that's just dumb
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Post by hughlangin on May 30, 2013 13:18:17 GMT -5
Yes, but I would not expect a Frazier/Boldt combo. I don't think the Red Sox would pick two HS OFers with their top two picks. If they exclude a guy who's at the top of their board because he's a HS player and they already selected a HS player then that's just dumb So I'm not going crazy? or at least I'm not the only one. I didn't think they would exclude a HS OF just because they already drafted one either. What I want to know is if they get to their second pick at 45 do they have one guy on their board as the best talent available? or do they likely have a list of several guys who fit into a tier of players the view as equal? In that scenario I could see them electing to go with a college pitcher. What I wouldn't do to sit in the war room on draft day.
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2013 13:18:57 GMT -5
If they exclude a guy who's at the top of their board because he's a HS player and they already selected a HS player then that's just dumb Unless there is a huge difference in players, few teams would use their top two picks on similar assets (HS OFers, in this case) when they can diversify their portfolio.
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Post by hughlangin on May 30, 2013 13:24:02 GMT -5
....and I'm assuming there will likely be very little if much difference in talent between pick 44 and 45, let alone 45 and 46. I guess I'm just still sour on the college arms we took last year. And to be honest with myself It's probably to soon to write them off also.
But from that Perspective It makes sense for them to look at a college arm.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 30, 2013 13:27:57 GMT -5
If they exclude a guy who's at the top of their board because he's a HS player and they already selected a HS player then that's just dumb Unless there is a huge difference in players, few teams would use their top two picks on similar assets (HS OFers, in this case) when they can diversify their portfolio. But since they took no outfielders and no high school position players and only one position player, a college SS, with their first several picks last year their "portfolio" over two years would be fully diversified. It's like dollar-cost averaging.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 30, 2013 13:37:38 GMT -5
They played it very safe last year, going for a home run this year isn't a bad move. It is like dollar-cost averaging.
The sad thing is that the safe picks from last year are underperforming.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 30, 2013 13:40:57 GMT -5
I could see 2 high schoolers. But 2 HS OF's with their first two picks? That seems extreme.
And it is not like dollar cost averaging. Not even remotely close.
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 14:36:28 GMT -5
If they exclude a guy who's at the top of their board because he's a HS player and they already selected a HS player then that's just dumb Unless there is a huge difference in players, few teams would use their top two picks on similar assets (HS OFers, in this case) when they can diversify their portfolio. Or you could use your top two picks on similar players, hoping you develop one useful player. The success rate of high school outfielders is less than 20%.
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 15:01:56 GMT -5
I wouldn't... This draft is very top heavy. It's not outrageous to think a team like Boston that hasn't picked this high in a whole lot of years, throws big money at their top two picks if they think the talent there is that special. Sure there could be some gems in the later rounds and possibly some signability guys who fall, but I think they will draft the best talent early and sort out the money later. Remember the top 2 picks are protected. I guess, my point was rather do you think that Boldt is really that much better than the other available options that you sacrifice a third round pick, as well as other picks in the top ten rounds? I like Boldt well enough, but I am not convinced he is that much better than the other players who will likely be available.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 30, 2013 15:08:43 GMT -5
When was the last time the Red Sox drafted 2 HS players in rounds 1 and 2 to start their draft?
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 15:15:47 GMT -5
When was the last time the Red Sox drafted 2 HS players in rounds 1 and 2 to start their draft? Its been awhile since they had so few picks this yearly. They have generally had multiple picks from the mid twenties to mid 40s. In 2011 for instance they drafted: College pitcher, high school catcher, high school pitcher, college OF, high school OF, then a second high school catcher, but that's 6 picks btw 19 and 111, we can only speculate as to whether the team will approach a draft with picks at 7, 45, 81, and 113 the same way.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2013 15:20:00 GMT -5
Well they've had years where they took a high schooler in the first and second rounds, but that was when they had multiple picks in each round and it was never consecutively to start off the draft. You have to go back to 2000 when they drafted Phil Dumatrait and Manny Delcarmen to start off the draft.
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