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SoxProspects.com 2013 Mock Draft
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 15:22:04 GMT -5
Well they've had years where they took a high schooler in the first and second rounds, but that was when they had multiple picks in each round and it was never consecutively to start off the draft. You have to go back to 2000 when they drafted Phil Dumatrait and Manny Delcarmen to start off the draft. That's my point, its hard to know how the Red Sox will act because they have essentially never been in this situation before. We think they will take upside at the first pick because that is what the "insiders" are suggesting, but then again, are the sources being honest?
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2013 15:23:13 GMT -5
Well they've had years where they took a high schooler in the first and second rounds, but that was when they had multiple picks in each round and it was never consecutively to start off the draft. You have to go back to 2000 when they drafted Phil Dumatrait and Manny Delcarmen to start off the draft. Sorry the correct answer is Jeff Suppan and Nomar Garciapara back in 1996.....not that bad of a haul.
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2013 15:25:56 GMT -5
Well they've had years where they took a high schooler in the first and second rounds, but that was when they had multiple picks in each round and it was never consecutively to start off the draft. You have to go back to 2000 when they drafted Phil Dumatrait and Manny Delcarmen to start off the draft. True, but the Red Sox have not taken two HS position players in the top 75 since 1995 (Corey Jenkins and Jose Olmeda).
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2013 15:34:15 GMT -5
Well they've had years where they took a high schooler in the first and second rounds, but that was when they had multiple picks in each round and it was never consecutively to start off the draft. You have to go back to 2000 when they drafted Phil Dumatrait and Manny Delcarmen to start off the draft. True, but the Red Sox have not taken two HS position players in the top 75 since 1995 (Corey Jenkins and Jose Olmeda). I stand corrected again. I was looking back in the sox draft history and wow, they drafted a lot of high schoolers back in the 1990's
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 30, 2013 15:43:06 GMT -5
Under this regime they've never done that(two HS players to start a draft) and while Cherrington is he's own man and he is certainly new at his position much of the same people are still around and he is from the same tree as Theo so we can assume they hold similar believes.
The most probable prediction for the 2nd round is that if they go with a HS player is 1st round is that they'll go college because they like to diversify their portfolio which holds true in almost all their draft.
Yes this is a new situation picking 7th but they have had many different situations as far as where they pick or have multiple picks or no 1st round picks in the end they always end up with a diversified draft.
This is not to say they won't do it (go with two HS to start a draft) but if you are guessing which way they'll go this is what you have to do, analyze what they've done and see if there are trends, unless you have inside knowledge of what they are doing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 30, 2013 15:50:13 GMT -5
In 2011 for instance they drafted: College pitcher, high school catcher, high school pitcher, college OF, high school OF, then a second high school catcher, but that's 6 picks btw 19 and 111, we can only speculate as to whether the team will approach a draft with picks at 7, 45, 81, and 113 the same way. In 2011 they started the draft with Matt Barnes (College Pitcher), Blake Swihart (HS C), Henry Owens (HS Pitcher) and Jackie Bradley Jr (College OF) = diversified draft. Two hitters (One HS, One College). Two pitchers (One College, one HS). Thats what they are talking about when they say "diversify your portfolio." They took a risk with a HS C, lessened the impact with an advance College hitter. Took a safe bet with a College pitcher allows them to take a risk with a HS pitcher.
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Post by borisman on May 30, 2013 16:22:13 GMT -5
Posted by greatscottcooper
Sorry the correct answer is Jeff Suppan and Nomar Garciapara back in 1996.....not that bad of a haul.
Do you mean the Georgia Tech Nomar?
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 16:23:52 GMT -5
In 2011 for instance they drafted: College pitcher, high school catcher, high school pitcher, college OF, high school OF, then a second high school catcher, but that's 6 picks btw 19 and 111, we can only speculate as to whether the team will approach a draft with picks at 7, 45, 81, and 113 the same way. In 2011 they started the draft with Matt Barnes (College Pitcher), Blake Swihart (HS C), Henry Owens (HS Pitcher) and Jackie Bradley Jr (College OF) = diversified draft. Two hitters (One HS, One College). Two pitchers (One College, one HS). Thats what they are talking about when they say "diversify your portfolio." They took a risk with a HS C, lessened the impact with an advance College hitter. Took a safe bet with a College pitcher allows them to take a risk with a HS pitcher. I think we are talking past each other here. I mentioned 2011 because it was a very different situation. They had a bunch of picks which were all close together. Here they have few picks spaced very far apart. Do you think, for instance, that the Red Sox would pass on Meadows after drafting Frazier at 7 if he was available at 45 (I know he will not be)? I doubt it, and the pattern of not drafting two high schoolers early would be broken. I use Meadows as an example because we believe that he is probably very high on the red sox draft board. What if Boldt had a top ten grade on the Red Sox draft board, but fell to 45, would they pass then? I also doubt that. Every draft is different unfold differently.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 30, 2013 16:29:34 GMT -5
Posted by greatscottcooper Sorry the correct answer is Jeff Suppan and Nomar Garciapara back in 1996.....not that bad of a haul. Do you mean the Georgia Tech Nomar? No I meant to type Trot Nixon and Jeff Supan....my bad.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 30, 2013 17:27:04 GMT -5
Do you think, for instance, that the Red Sox would pass on Meadows after drafting Frazier at 7 if he was available at 45 (I know he will not be)? I doubt it, and the pattern of not drafting two high schoolers early would be broken. I use Meadows as an example because we believe that he is probably very high on the red sox draft board. What if Boldt had a top ten grade on the Red Sox draft board, but fell to 45, would they pass then? I also doubt that. Every draft is different unfold differently. 1) Meadows 100% won't be there so really why would I answer. 2) Do you know how Boldt or anyone else is rated on their board? no neither do I so if you are making a projection on how or what type of players they will take with the top two picks I have to take into consideration what they've done in the past. Thats the only information we have to go by. They like to diversify their portfolio and have never taken two HS guys to start a draft (This regime) so it is highly unlikely and should not be expected that you'll see two HS guys to open the draft. Thats the whole point. Edit: I hope they do take the highest ceiling available at every pick, I like HS picks that give you more to dream on. But at this point I'm not expecting it for the reasons posted throughout the thread.
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Post by amfox1 on May 30, 2013 19:12:42 GMT -5
Do you think, for instance, that the Red Sox would pass on Meadows after drafting Frazier at 7 if he was available at 45 (I know he will not be)? I doubt it, and the pattern of not drafting two high schoolers early would be broken. I use Meadows as an example because we believe that he is probably very high on the red sox draft board. What if Boldt had a top ten grade on the Red Sox draft board, but fell to 45, would they pass then? I also doubt that. Every draft is different unfold differently. This analysis is simply not correct. The decision whether to pass on Meadows (in the highly unlikely event he falls to #45), if ranked at the top of the Red Sox board, will be based on health and whether he can be signed within the draft budget. A similar analysis would need to be made for Boldt. I note that Boldt has not played all year and therefore it is possible that no one in the Red Sox organization has scouted him (which likely gives MIN a big advantage).
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Post by GyIantosca on May 30, 2013 19:13:18 GMT -5
What about the kid Dillon Overton? Drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd would that be to high for him? I been reading some good writeups on him in BA and we are familiar with him and he is a lefty.
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Post by bluechip on May 30, 2013 19:24:58 GMT -5
Do you think, for instance, that the Red Sox would pass on Meadows after drafting Frazier at 7 if he was available at 45 (I know he will not be)? I doubt it, and the pattern of not drafting two high schoolers early would be broken. I use Meadows as an example because we believe that he is probably very high on the red sox draft board. What if Boldt had a top ten grade on the Red Sox draft board, but fell to 45, would they pass then? I also doubt that. Every draft is different unfold differently. This analysis is simply not correct. The decision whether to pass on Meadows (in the highly unlikely event he falls to #45), if ranked at the top of the Red Sox board, will be based on health and whether he can be signed within the draft budget. A similar analysis would need to be made for Boldt. I note that Boldt has not played all year and therefore it is possible that no one in the Red Sox organization has scouted him (which likely gives MIN a big advantage). I agree Boldt is probably not that high. To be honest, from the scouting reports I have seen do not make Boldt particularly enticing to me at 45 (even if the Red Sox drafted an extremely safe player in the first round). I was arguing more a general point of draft strategy. The point was that if someone who was at the top (like top ten) of their draft board fell to 45, the difference in talent of that player compared to the other available options would necessitate drafting that player, regardless of who was drafted at 7. Maybe the Red Sox have Boldt at 9 on their draft board, maybe they have Josh Hart that high, maybe they have Joe Sixpack that high. The actual players used as an example does not matter because I so have access to the Red Sox draft board.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2013 20:38:09 GMT -5
bluechip, it's also worth noting that with the slotting system, signability needs to come into play. If the Sox have a guy that high on their draft board and he fell to 45, there's probably a reason, and that's why the hypothetical probably doesn't work.
The danger of drafting a Boldt is that if he doesn't sign, you lose the slot value of that pick completely from your pool. That's yet another reason to diversify - to have more control over your draft pool. On the off chance that, say, Appel falls to 7, they're going to have to take a guy at 45 that's signing well below slot most likely, and so on.
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Post by okin15 on May 31, 2013 12:05:48 GMT -5
Has anyone done any analysis saying more (or fewer) prospects are forgoing signing in order to go to college or perhaps even on to their senior year? I would think that the guys who used to get a few hundred thousand in rounds 10-15 might now be going on to college, which in turn should raise the level of that sport, and make more good college players available in 1-3 years.
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Post by amfox1 on May 31, 2013 12:27:05 GMT -5
What about the kid Dillon Overton? Drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd would that be to high for him? I been reading some good writeups on him in BA and we are familiar with him and he is a lefty. No, it would not be too high. I'm not a big fan, however, due to his lack of upside.
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2013 13:29:31 GMT -5
I think it depends on the type of prospect. Though there are always one or two guys who won't sign out of high school, in general, if someone offers you a million dollars you don't turn it down. All of the high school guys we've been discussing here are probably going to sign.
More likely it's guys who would have signed for the $100-$300K range before who either aren't getting drafted or in some cases aren't getting offers due to the slot pool running out. Hunter Virant fell victim to that last year.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2013 21:56:47 GMT -5
FYI, my SoxProspects.com final mock will be posted Wednesday morning.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2013 22:25:08 GMT -5
I think it depends on the type of prospect. Though there are always one or two guys who won't sign out of high school, in general, if someone offers you a million dollars you don't turn it down. All of the high school guys we've been discussing here are probably going to sign. More likely it's guys who would have signed for the $100-$300K range before who either aren't getting drafted or in some cases aren't getting offers due to the slot pool running out. Hunter Virant fell victim to that last year. BA did a podcast about the draft the other day and they mentioned the percentages are the same as pre-CBA.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 4, 2013 9:43:51 GMT -5
I think it depends on the type of prospect. Though there are always one or two guys who won't sign out of high school, in general, if someone offers you a million dollars you don't turn it down. All of the high school guys we've been discussing here are probably going to sign. More likely it's guys who would have signed for the $100-$300K range before who either aren't getting drafted or in some cases aren't getting offers due to the slot pool running out. Hunter Virant fell victim to that last year. BA did a podcast about the draft the other day and they mentioned the percentages are the same as pre-CBA. Interesting. It is exactly those 100-300k guys I was wondering about. I wonder if fewer are being drafted. Obviously, these guys aren't sure-fire college stars either, or they'd be going higher, but I could def see the college play inching up a bit over the next few years, and there being more high upside guys coming out of JuCo or as Jr's. I think this would be good for baseball. I suppose the other possibility is that these guys go to other sports = bad for baseball. No way to know yet how this all would affect players deciding on sports in High school or before.
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