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2013 Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Discussion
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 13:28:43 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jul 6, 2013 13:33:31 GMT -5
Pressly has a nice ERA but horrible peripherals: 5.98 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 4.58 xFIP. He's just gotten lucky with home runs (2% HR//FB; league average is closer to 10%) despite being a fly ball pitcher (36.5% GB).
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 13:48:35 GMT -5
Thanks. I hadn't noticed that. Fangraphs says a HR/FB ration below 5% is "excellent." Any chance it's more than just luck?
So, what would you do about the impending 40-man roster crunch? Some big names will be Rule 5 eligible.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 13:49:07 GMT -5
err.. that would be "ratio"....
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Post by jmei on Jul 6, 2013 14:03:37 GMT -5
It's super early to be speculating about the offseason 40-man, but I think there are a lot of names currently on the 40-man that will need to come off, but that won't be a big loss. I'm thinking of guys like Aceves, Wright, Butler, De La Torre, Beato, Snyder, and Diaz. On the Rule 5 list, my only must-adds are Brentz, Bogaerts, Cecchini, Ranaudo, and Workman. I take my chances with the likes of Almanzar, Couch, De La Cruz, Hazelbaker, Hernandez, Jacobs, Kurzc, Meneses, Ruiz, Stroup, Vinicio, etc. (the only names that would give me pause are Almanzar, Hazelbaker, and maybe Hernandez and Meneses).
Knowing how the front office thinks, I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade of any of the following sell-high guys who might otherwise be lost for nothing by December: Britton, Hassan, Workman, Almanzar.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 14:33:27 GMT -5
Don't you think they could get something for Beato, De La Torre, Snyder and Aceves? (Though I'm a bit surprised you're so quick to give them up.)
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Post by jmei on Jul 6, 2013 14:47:35 GMT -5
They're all very useful players and I'm in no rush to get rid of them, especially since Beato and De La Torre will have options remaining next year. But they're mostly AAAA-type players who a front office can't let stand in the way of higher-ceiling players like Britton or Workman when the Rule 5 Draft rolls around.
I wouldn't really try to trade them mid-season because (a) they're all extremely useful this year to the major league club and (b) they wouldn't fetch more than cash or a PTBNL anyways, so why not keep them and hope that you don't have to push them out this winter. If anyone calls on one of them, I take the call, but they aren't guys I'm scrambling to unload by July 31st.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 15:10:45 GMT -5
Makes sense. Just to brainstorm, though - how do you take advantage of the best time to sell (trade deadline), using assets you'll need to sell in December (Rule 5 guys), without letting go of pieces you might need this season? Come December, hording is not an option.
Obviously, you don't want to make the National's mistake and assume you'll be able to win next year. You can't trade everyone. Aceves, for example, is way too useful in long relief & as a spot starter to give up (and I think that might apply to this off-season as well). But you do have to give up something to get something, and it seems like this is the time to do it.
This will be an issue for the next few years, considering Boston's impressive farm system. Clearly, their future success will require a different approach - it's much harder for rich teams to work the Rule 4 and International Drafts than it used to be. If they can trade AAA guys for A and AA guys while they still have that shiny new prospect smell, they'll be in much better shape.
It would be great to see the Sox turn their system into a prospect machine, a la Tampa Bay. There must be contending teams with fewer ready prospects but decent lower-level systems that could be a good match.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2013 15:18:31 GMT -5
Makes sense. Just to brainstorm, though - how do you take advantage of the best time to sell (trade deadline), using assets you'll need to sell in December (Rule 5 guys), without letting go of pieces you might need this season? Come December, hording is not an option. Obviously, you don't want to make the National's mistake and assume you'll be able to win next year. You can't trade everyone. Aceves, for example, is way too useful in long relief & as a spot starter to give up (and I think that might apply to this off-season as well). But you do have to give up something to get something, and it seems like this is the time to do it. This will be an issue for the next few years, considering Boston's impressive farm system. Clearly, their future success will require a different approach - it's much harder for rich teams to work the Rule 4 and International Drafts than it used to be. If they can trade AAA guys for A and AA guys while they still have that shiny new prospect smell, they'll be in much better shape. It would be great to see the Sox turn their system into a prospect machine, a la Tampa Bay. There must be contending teams with fewer ready prospects but decent lower-level systems that could be a good match. I doubt you're really going to get much for those guys you don't want to lose in Rule 5 for nothing. Most MLB teams are in the same boat with 40-man spots and aren't going to take the guys you don't want to protect and give up much in return. They'll just wait for the Rule 5 draft instead. I'd rather just keep the depth this season. That's probably worth more than we'd get back.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 15:43:33 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree - all Rule 5 eligible players aren't equal. The Sox are a top-five farm system. They have more good prospects than most other teams, and they've picked up some very good cast-offs this season. If they are worth something to us, they are worth something to someone else. A guy like Brandon Snyder might even be worth pretty much....
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2013 15:43:37 GMT -5
A month ago I suggested trading Drew and Victorino. I think my logic was sound - both remain injury-prone and potentially replaceable from Pawtucket, but at this point Victorino is too important to trade and Drew may be too injured to get sufficient value. Plus this team has chemistry - that unquantifiable something that inspires a different hero to emerge nearly every game. But between Biogenesis and the expanded wildcard, I do think it remains a seller's market at the deadline. And the Sox will have a ridiculous number of Rule 5 eligible players to protect in November: wiki.soxprospects.com/Rule+5+Eligible+Playersas well as quite a few 40-man roster members still in the minors: boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=bosPerhaps the Sox should try to trade some of them, either for relievers, lower-level prospects, or International Draft money. Are any of them that the Sox don't need close enough to generate value? Will Middlebrooks? Brock Holt? Alex Hassan? Or should the Sox keep them as insurance for as long as possible? You folks are the experts - which should they trade, which should they keep, and which don't actually need protecting? Whom might you showcase in advance of a trade? How would you construct the 40-man roster in November? Personally, I see players from the group of Workman, Ranaudo, Britton, Almanzar, Brentz as trade bait of varying value. I'll actually be a bit surprised if at least two of those players aren't dealt.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 15:48:43 GMT -5
oh... and by "pretty much" I mean "a few A/AA prospects...."
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 6, 2013 16:16:42 GMT -5
If the Sox are convinced that Iglesias is the SS, and Bogaerts is the 3B, then what will they do with Middlebrooks and Cecchini? Is either a potential 1B?
It's bit early to have to decide on Cecchini, but Middlebrooks could have reasonable value at the trade deadline, especially if he keeps hitting at Pawtucket. I think he is the most valuable position player trade chip of those I think the Sox will consider trading.
But what are they going to trade for? An SP? Do they really need one with all the talent in the minors near ready? I think they will be in on trades for a couple of the SPs, but I sort of doubt they'll give up what will be required.
I think they will try to get a good RP, or two. Almost certainly there will be some burnouts, or injuries in the bullpen. Unless one of the starters is converted, there isn't a lot of minor league talent there. However, they should not have to give up front line talent to get one or two RPs
I think the best position to fill is 1B, if they don't see someone like Middlebrooks shifting position. Napoli is not really cutting it, and he will be gone after this season.
A slugging OF would be good, also, but it appears Stanton is off the market.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 16:19:07 GMT -5
Thanks, Chris. Who would you trade/keep/not bother to protect before December?
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 16:32:49 GMT -5
But what are they going to trade for? An SP? Do they really need one with all the talent in the minors near ready? I think they will be in on trades for a couple of the SPs, but I sort of doubt they'll give up what will be required. I think they will try to get a good RP, or two. Almost certainly there will be some burnouts, or injuries in the bullpen. Unless one of the starters is converted, there isn't a lot of minor league talent there. However, they should not have to give up front line talent to get one or two RPs I think the best position to fill is 1B, if they don't see someone like Middlebrooks shifting position. Napoli is not really cutting it, and he will be gone after this season. A slugging OF would be good, also, but it appears Stanton is off the market. Sorry to repeat myself, but I'd trade for guys in the lower minors and international draft pool money. The Sox bullpen depth is actually pretty good, and very few bullpen trades have worked out for them. As to position players, they could use more power, but there are no guarantees - Will Middlebrooks and Mike Napoli say hello. Their farm system is becoming top-heavy, as the cap makes it harder to buy good prospects than it used to be. (Compare last-year's draft to the ones before.) Upper-level prospects are less risky, so should be worth several lower-level prospects. If the Sox prospects are close to big-league ready, all the better to trade them before the deadline. I'd imagine the fact that Melancon, Reddick, Lowry and Rizzo have looked pretty good makes the Sox a desirable trading partner. Their farm system isn't over-hyped, like the Yankees. But I'm just throwing this out there because I'm hoping to learn from you guys. It seems to make sense to me - tell me why I'm wrong.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 6, 2013 16:51:24 GMT -5
There isn't nearly the 40 man crunch as we think there is so I wouldn't be trading guys like Workman, Ranaudo, Britton, Almanzar, Brentz with the upcoming 40 as any type of motivating factor.
There is next to no chance Almanzar sticks with another team so I don't see a reason to protect him if you are tight on space.
As with all trades it depends what you get back, but generally speaking I wouldn't move them because we're worried about 40 space. I'll reserve judgement until it happens and we see what they get.
Butler, Beato, Wright, Bard, Holt, Aceves, Drew, Ellsbury, Hanrahan, Kalish, Snyder and Napoli are all possible subtractions.
As are Lester and Salty....
Xander, Cecchini, Brentz, Ranaudo and Workman are the only must adds. Good chance you lose Hernandez and Hazelbaker if they aren't added, but I can't see them losing all the AAAA type relievers they won't protect so there should be plenty sticking around for depth.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 6, 2013 16:55:32 GMT -5
"If the Sox are convinced that Iglesias is the SS, and Bogaerts is the 3B, then what will they do with Middlebrooks and Cecchini? Is either a potential 1B?"
Been thinking that over also the last couple of weeks Danr with Iglesias seemingly covering up the flaws in his swing he had earlier and with Cecchini keeping up his torrid pace. What exactly is wrong with a 1b who gets on base at a torrid pace, but only hits 10-12HR? Is a 1b, that has the potential to hit .300-.310 and an OBP in the .380 range at 1b, like a Boggs type perhaps at the upper level at 3b any different at 1b?
It would sure make out for a tremendous offensive infield anyway if Iglesias could just get on base in the future at a .330OBP range and the team would have them all (ex Pedey) for years to come.
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Post by britalb on Jul 6, 2013 16:55:57 GMT -5
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 7, 2013 23:38:05 GMT -5
Just wondering what the price is on Stanton, it doesn't seem to make much sense because he is a small market guy and we have had our debacles with corner outfielders who have played in Florida cough...Crawford...cough...cough, but he has insane power, is young, and any addition to the lineup is a welcome one. Is Middlebrooks, Brentz, Ranaudo, and Marrero enough? I've seen too much of Ainge to be convinced that any player is off the market.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 8, 2013 1:05:28 GMT -5
Just wondering what the price is on Stanton, it doesn't seem to make much sense because he is a small market guy and we have had our debacles with corner outfielders who have played in Florida cough...Crawford...cough...cough, but he has insane power, is young, and any addition to the lineup is a welcome one. Is Middlebrooks, Brentz, Ranaudo, and Marrero enough? I've seen too much of Ainge to be convinced that any player is off the market. Miami is in no rush to move him. Guessing that package would even get a call back. Middlebrooks + Bradley + Barnes might get a call back...but may not be enough.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2013 11:01:25 GMT -5
If Stanton is on the market, the Marlins are going to ask for Xander, and I don't see them trading him for any package without either Xander or multiple top-5 prospects (and even that is a long shot). Remember, Stanton has multiple years of team control and a 5.7 fWAR season under his belt. Other teams like Texas will have trade chips like Profar to offer. It is going to take a truly elite package to acquire him, and there's no indication that Miami wants to move him.
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Post by jdb on Jul 10, 2013 8:58:22 GMT -5
This biogénesis ordeal looks like it Will really impact the AL races. The Tigers and Rangers could lose Peralta and Cruz.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2013 9:43:12 GMT -5
This biogénesis ordeal looks like it Will really impact the AL races. The Tigers and Rangers could lose Peralta and Cruz. And I hate to even mention it but Colon also.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 10, 2013 10:09:06 GMT -5
It's really hard to look at Colon's numbers and not suspect he is cheating. He was coming off back to back playing seasons (with injury in between) he had a 4.19 and 4.00 ERA and then he goes to the A's and somehow collects a 3.43 before getting busted for synthetic testosterone and now a 2.69 ERA at 39 and 40! By the same logic i guess you could apply the same for Ortiz but his PED season was almost a decade ago and he can't loose gas on his fastball like a pitcher can
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2013 11:44:22 GMT -5
I'm sure every single player suspended is going to appeal their suspensions, and that could take months. I doubt any of these players will miss time this year.
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