Post by danr on Jun 9, 2013 12:25:45 GMT -5
Some years ago somebody did a study of what Jason Varitek's refusal to sign when he was first drafted in college cost him and it was in the millions. This was a case where he went back in the draft the next year, but it still delayed his development and the time when he made the big money.
The point is that if a player is likely to make the major leagues, the earlier he starts on that path, the better. The trick, however, is being honest about the possibility, and teenagers (and their parents) usually lack that ability. Almost all think they are better than they are because they haven't consistently played against teams full of players as good, or nearly as good, as they are.
And then there is the point of college. It is supposed to be education. However, that is a joke when it comes to the major sports. Most high school baseball players - serious players - don't go to college to get an education. They go to enhance their chances in a future draft to get more money. The new drafting system makes that incredibly more difficult than it used to be.
Look at the limits on the bonuses. Teams do not have the flexibility anymore to sign several players at multi-million dollar levels. Consequently, only the very elite are going to get much money. Thus, a drafted high school player has a very low percentage chance of getting a higher bonus when drafted in college.
The decision really should be whether the kid truly wants to be a professional baseball player more than going to college right away, and has a reasonable chance of having a professional career. Regardless of the bonus he gets, he can get a guarantee of being able to go to college later, and an agent would be committing malfeasance if he did not get that in the contract.
With the exception of the truly elite, the players likely to be drafted in the first couple of rounds, it makes very little economic sense for a high school player to pass up a pro contract for the hope of more money later, with the exception of being offered only token bonuses, $10-$25K, etc.
The kids and their advisers can read the scouting reports. They know what the professionals think of them, and their chances. They may not like what they read, especially when the report says the kid is most likely to be an "organizational player." I saw that in a number of scouting reports on players drafted the last couple of days. That should tell them that their professional career is going to be spent in the minors and not be very long. That should make them think about what is most important in their lives now, and for the future. Most kids are not very good at that, but their advisers should be.
The point is that if a player is likely to make the major leagues, the earlier he starts on that path, the better. The trick, however, is being honest about the possibility, and teenagers (and their parents) usually lack that ability. Almost all think they are better than they are because they haven't consistently played against teams full of players as good, or nearly as good, as they are.
And then there is the point of college. It is supposed to be education. However, that is a joke when it comes to the major sports. Most high school baseball players - serious players - don't go to college to get an education. They go to enhance their chances in a future draft to get more money. The new drafting system makes that incredibly more difficult than it used to be.
Look at the limits on the bonuses. Teams do not have the flexibility anymore to sign several players at multi-million dollar levels. Consequently, only the very elite are going to get much money. Thus, a drafted high school player has a very low percentage chance of getting a higher bonus when drafted in college.
The decision really should be whether the kid truly wants to be a professional baseball player more than going to college right away, and has a reasonable chance of having a professional career. Regardless of the bonus he gets, he can get a guarantee of being able to go to college later, and an agent would be committing malfeasance if he did not get that in the contract.
With the exception of the truly elite, the players likely to be drafted in the first couple of rounds, it makes very little economic sense for a high school player to pass up a pro contract for the hope of more money later, with the exception of being offered only token bonuses, $10-$25K, etc.
The kids and their advisers can read the scouting reports. They know what the professionals think of them, and their chances. They may not like what they read, especially when the report says the kid is most likely to be an "organizational player." I saw that in a number of scouting reports on players drafted the last couple of days. That should tell them that their professional career is going to be spent in the minors and not be very long. That should make them think about what is most important in their lives now, and for the future. Most kids are not very good at that, but their advisers should be.
