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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 5, 2014 0:36:35 GMT -5
No one updated after his last start, people were a little preoccupied with the trade deadline.
Last 6 starts: 30 IP, 20 H, 16 R, 11 ER, 11 BB, 22 K, 1 HR 3.30 ERA, .222 AVG, 1.20 GO/AO
Still a small sample size, but certainly trending in the right direction.
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Post by quintanariffic on Aug 5, 2014 23:18:35 GMT -5
BUST
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2014 1:21:10 GMT -5
I think it is far too early to make a judgment here. I was not crazy about the selection when it was done because I think that when a team has that high a draft choice, there ought to be a better, more immediate, payoff. Or, at least. the player should not be a project.
Also, I have an aversion to drafting high school pitchers in the first couple of rounds and paying them high bonuses. There just are too many things that can go wrong.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 6, 2014 6:43:25 GMT -5
Ball is in his first full season of minor leagues. Give him time and let's see how he develops.
You can't just pass on top tier HS players in the early rounds as you will miss out on a lot of high ceiling guys like Lester, Owens, etc
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 6, 2014 11:52:27 GMT -5
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 6, 2014 11:55:10 GMT -5
I think it is far too early to make a judgment here. I was not crazy about the selection when it was done because I think that when a team has that high a draft choice, there ought to be a better, more immediate, payoff. Or, at least. the player should not be a project. Also, I have an aversion to drafting high school pitchers in the first couple of rounds and paying them high bonuses. There just are too many things that can go wrong. I understand your point. In my analysis of high school picks I tend to consider their performance relative to where they would be had they attended college rather than signed out of high school. From this perspective, Ball's struggles do not really concern me as much as others on this board. He should be a freshman in college, ineligible for the draft for another two seasons. Assuming he can keep making adjustments during these next two years, I am inclined to think that he will develop more as a pro than he would have as a college kid (better coaching & competition). Regardless of the numbers, there is something to be said for throwing a kid in the deep end, and seeing if he can swim. It might not be pretty right now, but I have to believe these struggles will be helpful in Ball's long-term development.
Also, if he spends a full year at each level (2015 in Salem, 2016 in Portland), he would theoretically have an entire year of AA under his belt by the time he would have finished his junior year of college and been eligible to re-enter the draft. I have a hard time imagining the Sox would aggressively assign him straight to AA if they drafted him out of college in the 2016 draft.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 6, 2014 12:45:27 GMT -5
I think it is far too early to make a judgment here. I was not crazy about the selection when it was done because I think that when a team has that high a draft choice, there ought to be a better, more immediate, payoff. Or, at least. the player should not be a project. Also, I have an aversion to drafting high school pitchers in the first couple of rounds and paying them high bonuses. There just are too many things that can go wrong. Why? That's not the point of the draft. The point of the draft is to add talent. You don't pick talent based on how quickly a player can make an impact. I just don't get that line of thinking. That's not to say that Trey Ball winds up being a good/the right pick. But at the time, Boston (and a lot of others) thought he was the best talent at the slot. There's more risk with HS pitchers, but that the is the nature of prospects. Hell that draft itself is a perfect example of the fact that there is nothing but risk in the draft. More often than not, the players you draft aren't going to work out. Hell just look at the #1 overall pick, Mark Appel. He was a sure of thing, coming out of COLLEGE and here we are watching him look like a 30th round pick out there.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 6, 2014 13:50:42 GMT -5
Sean McAdam on the Baseball show last week brought up the same point I made earlier in this thread about the TBall pick in the 13 draft. He said the same thing I did, "with the pitching depth already in the system prior to that draft he was surprised they took another arm picking that high for the first time in several years". He went on to say how it would be more practical for the Sox to start drafting power bats in the upcoming June drafts..
There you have it from a Redsox Insider..
I believe most are right on this topic, takes time to develop prospects and it is such a crapshoot regardless of position. But I do believe with the money and time spent on scouting these players you would figure at some point the sox look at potential power bats regardless the position..
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Post by quintanariffic on Aug 6, 2014 13:58:06 GMT -5
Sean McAdam on the Baseball show last week brought up the same point I made earlier in this thread about the TBall pick in the 13 draft. He said the same thing I did, "with the pitching depth already in the system prior to that draft he was surprised they took another arm picking that high for the first time in several years". He went on to say how it would be more practical for the Sox to start drafting power bats in the upcoming June drafts.. There you have it from a Redsox Insider.. There are two faults with this perspective. First Sean McAdam is anything but a Red Sox insider. He's a writer for a 2nd rate newspaper in a 3rd tier market. The next insightful article he writes with respect to the minors will be his first. Speier, from the minors perspective, clearly is an insider who has taken the time to cultivate sources and understand what's important to watch out for. Second, the notion that the Sox or any other team should be drafting for need (in the system or with the big club) is laughable given the failure rate of prospects. You draft the BPA you think you can sign and let the chips fall where they may.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 6, 2014 14:04:59 GMT -5
Sean McAdam on the Baseball show last week brought up the same point I made earlier in this thread about the TBall pick in the 13 draft. He said the same thing I did, "with the pitching depth already in the system prior to that draft he was surprised they took another arm picking that high for the first time in several years". He went on to say how it would be more practical for the Sox to start drafting power bats in the upcoming June drafts.. There you have it from a Redsox Insider.. There are two faults with this perspective. First Sean McAdam is anything but a Red Sox insider. He's a writer for a 2nd rate newspaper in a 3rd tier market. The next insightful article he writes with respect to the minors will be his first. Speier, from the minors perspective, clearly is an insider who has taken the time to cultivate sources and understand what's important to watch out for. Second, the notion that the Sox or any other team should be drafting for need (in the system or with the big club) is laughable given the failure rate of prospects. You draft the BPA you think you can sign and let the chips fall where they may. Agreed! I still would have taken Meadows. lol
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 6, 2014 14:15:17 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su?
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Trey Ball
Aug 6, 2014 23:14:26 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by larrycook on Aug 6, 2014 23:14:26 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I thought the sox were high in the Georgia high school kid that went earlier in the first round. To Cleveland I think?
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 7, 2014 0:02:02 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I thought the sox were high in the Georgia high school kid that went earlier in the first round. To Cleveland I think? He said available.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 7, 2014 4:49:04 GMT -5
I don't think anyone can think that drafting Ball at so high a pick wasn't an extremely risky move, but it looks like maybe some of the things they liked about him are starting ro bear fruit. He seems to have his head together, is hard working and has a lot of athleticism. I was one of the people here who were literally shocked with the pick. Extremely skinny young man from a cold weather state who was extremely raw at the highest draft point we have had available since Trot Nixon? I couldn't believe it.
So what was it they liked about him as compared to a Braden Shipley or others? It looks like we do actually have a chance to find out as he keeps improving. I hope it wasn't just looking to find another Henry Owens.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 7, 2014 5:42:57 GMT -5
I saw the McAdam thing and he also cited Ball's struggles as a reason why they shouldn't target a pitcher again. It was nothing more than a silly Hot Take that made for "good" TV discussion. He has no idea what he's talking about.
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Trey Ball
Aug 7, 2014 7:35:41 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by moonstone2 on Aug 7, 2014 7:35:41 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I think that there were possibilities that likely had similar value though less risk and less ceiling. I just think with a top ten pick you need to take less risk and you shouldn't take a high school pitcher unless it's a guy who already has premium stuff and some polish. The great athlete with the projectable stuff is a guy you pick later not seventh.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 7, 2014 8:07:56 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I thought the sox were high in the Georgia high school kid that went earlier in the first round. To Cleveland I think? Right, we also missed on Kris Bryant. But good thing we didn't take Appel
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 7, 2014 10:50:07 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I think that there were possibilities that likely had similar value though less risk and less ceiling. I just think with a top ten pick you need to take less risk and you shouldn't take a high school pitcher unless it's a guy who already has premium stuff and some polish. The great athlete with the projectable stuff is a guy you pick later not seventh. This is the exact opposite of what the Red Sox said they wanted to do. They were going for the highest ceiling because they don't pick 7th often. They wanted a potential superstar. They are quite stacked with above average prospects.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 7, 2014 11:57:00 GMT -5
Quick question, does anyone here honestly think the Red Sox liked anyone else available in the draft more than Ball? Follow up, does anyone here think that the resources available to us fans is in any way equivalent to the resources available to the Red Sox? Bonus question, How much can you tell from the stats of a pitcher in the first professional year after graduating high school in regards to projecting his entire career? bu???ou (3 ou (2 ou (1 : ???su? I think that there were possibilities that likely had similar value though less risk and less ceiling. I just think with a top ten pick you need to take less risk and you shouldn't take a high school pitcher unless it's a guy who already has premium stuff and some polish. The great athlete with the projectable stuff is a guy you pick later not seventh. Aren't you always saying the Sox can't get by with a raft of pitchers with "#3 ceilings" and need some prospects with elite ceiling?
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 7, 2014 12:49:42 GMT -5
I guess this is kind of proving my point. Us readers see Ball as the scouting reports we read. So we know his height, age, something about his velocity and pitch mix. We read words like projectable, athletic, high ceiling and that is what we identify him as. So we discuss, saying I thinks like "I think Red Sox should get this guy because his scouting report says this word, or that word." I pretty sure that is not how the Red Sox see it. They sent talent evaluators to see these guys, and they have internal discussions on who they thought the best prospect was. Fraizer and Stewart probably were ranked higher than Ball, but we really don't know that. I don't think the conversation was ever focused on team need or the catch words we use, I think it was just strictly talent evaluation.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 7, 2014 12:57:27 GMT -5
The Red Sox already have a top rated farm system and that is including recent graduations of JBJ and Xander. The Red Sox have a slew of #3 pitchers with potentially one 1/2 in the making (still not calling Ownes an ace. Lester is a 1 and isn't an ace) and good defensive players with a solid hit-tool but average-to-below power potential. Granted there are some other budding potential stars with power in the making, but they're 17 and 19. Unless the Red Sox were going to get a more polished power-hitter with an elite ceiling or someone we can over-rate as the next Kershaw/Verlander/Hernandez who has the project-ability I don't have a problem with the Red Sox taking on a project if said project has the upside to be an elite talent. I would rather take a guy who has the upside of an ace and the floor of a flame out then to waste the 7th overall pick with something this system already has, good to better prospects.
Then again, Swihart appears to be an elite talent and Owens appears to be a highly-regarded prospect whose teetering on the line. Not to mention Margot and Devers have the potential to be a potentially elite prospect. It just gives the Red Sox even more of a reason to take some gambles.
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Trey Ball
Aug 7, 2014 13:46:38 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dominicansoxfan on Aug 7, 2014 13:46:38 GMT -5
If you watch the video of the Draft room there is no doubt that Ball was the highest rated player left on their draft board. Someone in the room mentions Meadows and then someone brings the conversation back to Ball because he is the highest rated player. It is good practice to always take the highest rated player regardless of position or level of education, with a small amount of character issues to sway your decision. Ball has elite potential, no matter if he achieves it or not. One of the moderators likes Hunter Harvey better after seeing both pitch in SS A ball, but Ball has a higher Potential IMO. Tall pitcher, Young, Split time between OF and LHP, Played basketball, and Working on his pitches rather than trying to get results. These are the reason that I believe people are underestimating him, or he could just flame out. Either way it was the best pick available! I wanted them to draft Kohl Stewart, but I guess the Twins were as impressed as I was with his demeanor and skill. Ball will develop, he is like 6'6" or 6'7" and just turned twenty, give him a minute to figure out mechanics and release points!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2014 14:19:37 GMT -5
Sean McAdam on the Baseball show last week brought up the same point I made earlier in this thread about the TBall pick in the 13 draft. He said the same thing I did, "with the pitching depth already in the system prior to that draft he was surprised they took another arm picking that high for the first time in several years". He went on to say how it would be more practical for the Sox to start drafting power bats in the upcoming June drafts.. There you have it from a Redsox Insider.. There are two faults with this perspective. First Sean McAdam is anything but a Red Sox insider. He's a writer for a 2nd rate newspaper in a 3rd tier market. The next insightful article he writes with respect to the minors will be his first. Speier, from the minors perspective, clearly is an insider who has taken the time to cultivate sources and understand what's important to watch out for. Second, the notion that the Sox or any other team should be drafting for need (in the system or with the big club) is laughable given the failure rate of prospects. You draft the BPA you think you can sign and let the chips fall where they may. FWIW, McAdam writes for CSNNE's website now. I only point this out because I think your statements are because you think he's still at the ProJo (he left there years ago for the Herald I think), and on the topic of minor leaguers, I'd take the opinions of the two ProJo guys, Brian McPherson and Tim Britton, over pretty much everyone but Speier. And McAdam was better on the minors stuff while he was in Providence too, btw. That said, I share your opinion that his thoughts here can be ignored. It's nonsense. As for the draft room footage, I remember the Ball talk part, but not Meadows being brought up. Your point stands as to Ball though - the quote from Cherington was literally something like "Ball is the highest rated on the board" or something.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 7, 2014 15:05:59 GMT -5
I assume he thinks the Herald is the second rate paper... you know, the one that (on its front page) today put a picture of the current secretary of state on a bicycle under the heading "pink bike diplomacy" (and yesterday had a full length picture of Giselle in a bikini)?
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 7, 2014 15:27:09 GMT -5
The Red Sox already have a top rated farm system and that is including recent graduations of JBJ and Xander. The Red Sox have a slew of #3 pitchers with potentially one 1/2 in the making (still not calling Ownes an ace. Lester is a 1 and isn't an ace) and good defensive players with a solid hit-tool but average-to-below power potential. Granted there are some other budding potential stars with power in the making, but they're 17 and 19. Unless the Red Sox were going to get a more polished power-hitter with an elite ceiling or someone we can over-rate as the next Kershaw/Verlander/Hernandez who has the project-ability I don't have a problem with the Red Sox taking on a project if said project has the upside to be an elite talent. I would rather take a guy who has the upside of an ace and the floor of a flame out then to waste the 7th overall pick with something this system already has, good to better prospects. Then again, Swihart appears to be an elite talent and Owens appears to be a highly-regarded prospect whose teetering on the line. Not to mention Margot and Devers have the potential to be a potentially elite prospect. It just gives the Red Sox even more of a reason to take some gambles. What the hell do you consider an Ace? Lester may not be Cy Young or Pedro Martinez out there, but he is without a doubt an ace. One of the 5-10 best pitchers in the league and a guy who you know you can count on to be lights out in the playoffs? Absolutely an ace.
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