SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 1, 2014 8:50:27 GMT -5
Let's take a step back and think rationally for a minute. Maybe you are and this is just for me, but how does starting anywhere but XST followed by Lowell/Greenville make much sense? When he was drafted, we all knew the deal, but it seems some are struggling to watch it in progress. I can almost promise this was the teams expectation since draft day. Think about it:
1. He had 53 innings between HS and Lowell last year. How many will they let him throw this year? More than he can get from a Lowell assignment? Doubtful... 2. He was a 2 way player in HS and has raw mechanics that they are working on. It makes infinitely more sense to work on those mechanics in a low pressure, non results oriented environment than it does to do it in Greenville. Regardless, of what we think as fans the players are competitive and so are their teammates so there is an element of pressure in those games. 3, basic, athletic development, is much more effective in a controlled practice environment than game situation. It's human nature, in an athlete, to try and win. Ball needs to concentrate solely on identifying and repeating his mechanics at this point. He's more apt to "cheat" in game situations, than he is in XST. Not to mention, there is a travel and team element that change things drastically.
He's exactly where he should be. It's not exciting, but it's not off schedule either. Maybe he will ultimately be a bust and 5 years from now we will be talking about him trying to make it as an OF, but we are not even on that path yet.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 1, 2014 9:01:14 GMT -5
Depends on what you mean by "evaluate." If you mean reaching a definitive conclusion, then agree. If you mean reaching intermediate conclusions, then disagree. We took Bogaets' assignement to Greenville instead of Lowell to be a good sign. We take Rijo's assignment to Greenville to be a good sign of his development. I don't know why the opposite doesn't stand -- the #7 pick, who struggled in each GCL appearance, and now can't make a full season team -- is not following the trajectory that seems like pretty standard for a first round HS kid. More first round HS kids are considerably more polished than Ball. Starting a HS kid in Lowell isn't unheard of or anything-- Buttrey and Callahan did so last year, for instance. It's fair to be a little disappointed that he's not ahead of the curve, but I think you're blowing this a little out of proportion by implying that he's going to be a bust.
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Apr 1, 2014 9:13:28 GMT -5
Let's take a step back and think rationally for a minute. Maybe you are and this is just for me, but how does starting anywhere but XST followed by Lowell/Greenville make much sense? When he was drafted, we all knew the deal, but it seems some are struggling to watch it in progress. I can almost promise this was the teams expectation since draft day. ... He's exactly where he should be. It's not exciting, but it's not off schedule either. Maybe he will ultimately be a bust and 5 years from now we will be talking about him trying to make it as an OF, but we are not even on that path yet. I am not sure that is true, but we'll never know other than a couple of hints (like this site's and Alex Speier's statements about expected spots). As the development, perhaps you are correct about the eventual bigger picture, and if they are babying him to protect the innings early, that would be nice to know. But I got the sense they were hoping he could hit Greenville, but he didn't earn a spot. I suspect, based on my general tracking of the draft, but subject to being corrected by those who track the draft more, that HS pitchers start in full season the next year. For example, Henry Owens, a raw, tall HS rookie started in Greenville. Does this mean Ball won't end up at the finish line of the marathon? No. But does a guy needing to stop for water at the 2 mile mark make him less likely to win the marathon? Yes. edit, for Jmei: I'm not sure citing Buttrey and Callahan are making me feel better.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Apr 1, 2014 9:15:45 GMT -5
I agree that it's to early to freak out about Ball not making Greenville. Like others have said this could amount to them watching his innings closely since he's from a cold weather state and has always been a two way player. I wasn't thrilled with the pick and would have leaned towards Meadows or Smith but it's way to early to judge Ball. Stuff like this hurts though. espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50186/mlb-insider-keith-law
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 1, 2014 11:29:40 GMT -5
I think being disappointed that Ball isn't on the Greenville roster is reasonable. It isn't related to physical readiness (which Buttrey not being there probably is), and he was the seventh pick overall. It is natural to assume that a top pick like him would be ready for full season ball.
I also agree with others that this is also not anything to freak out over either. He could easily get called up after a month or so and be fine in terms of his development track. Honestly, the brass discussed changing his projection to Lowell after seeing him live, so this wasn't a huge surprise for those of us who saw him.
The only recent comp is Owens, and the premise that he's much more raw at this point than Owens was is not a new idea.
|
|
|
Trey Ball
Apr 1, 2014 12:31:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 1, 2014 12:31:47 GMT -5
I'm not disappointed. I thought he'd be a guy who was going to need time before making the jump. I still think he goes to Greeville once some promotions up top start to trickle in.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 1, 2014 14:12:25 GMT -5
Ball had a combined 53 innings last year so a full season assignment might be too heavy a workload. In the end, if he dominates Lowell, he very well could skip Greenville and find himself in Salem next year. I realize I'm getting too far ahead here, but if people are disappointed in him not receiving a full season assignment at least we can find some solace in knowing that if everything swings right he would be were we would all love him to be if he is really moving up the learning curve fast. He still is a young, raw, but highly athletic and projectable arm so starting the year in Lowell in no way should be an indictment on his potential. He has the tools and the Sox do a great job of developing talent....nothing wrong with being conservative with his assignment, especially in his first year.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 1, 2014 15:18:01 GMT -5
I'm also not surprised that Trey Ball is not heading to Greenville to start the season. Disappointed? Yes, but I was probably guilty of buying into projections and hoping he had made a solid leap from the 2 times I saw him in GCL games last year. Every time I see a highly rated prospect and they don't "blow me away", I think of what a Jon Lester looked like the 1st time I saw him in Greenville or I think of what a Derek Jeter did his 1st full season and how home sick and discouraged he was. I walked away from Lester's performance and thought there is no way!
We always need to remind ourselves that the 1st year or two is pivotal for a kid to find out what professional baseball is all about and figure out their routine and how to go about solving weaknesses.
Trey Ball is nowhere close to being what he will be physically. Everything is still so new for him. I like to think this is the correct path for getting this kid to Boston. Trey is really raw in ways you and I might not completely comprehend. TWO months with extended spring training in Fort Myers under the expert tutelage of our coaching staff will do him wonders. Now, if we see him still behind the curve at this time next year.....all hands on deck for me. This season is all about learning HOW to be a professional, repeating his delivery, sharpening his secondary stuff, and commanding his fastball. Ball is 19 going on 17 as far as a pitcher, but he has some skills that can't be acquired. He is a tall, athletic left-handed pitcher with good velocity and a feel for his secondary offerings. After this season, start complaining about.....we should have taken Austin Meadows!!
|
|
|
Post by oilcansman on Apr 1, 2014 16:40:40 GMT -5
Although the sample size is small, there should be great concern with Ball. He got hit in a few innings he pitched in XST last year and got hit in spring training. He's not fooling or overpowering kids his own age. In addition, his velocity is good but not great. Indiana is a cold weather state, so Ball needs time, but he is already looking like a serious over draft - too raw for such a valuable pick.
In addition, although he's 19, when coaches are saying they need to teach him how to pitch, there should be concerned. Top ten picks need to be a little further along than that.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 2, 2014 10:47:25 GMT -5
While I don't think this is unexpected for Ball, I do think it's extremely disappointing for a #7 draft pick. They probably took the wrong guy for that spot.
|
|
|
Post by quintanariffic on Apr 2, 2014 12:32:12 GMT -5
I think being disappointed that Ball isn't on the Greenville roster is reasonable. It isn't related to physical readiness (which Buttrey not being there probably is), and he was the seventh pick overall. It is natural to assume that a top pick like him would be ready for full season ball. I also agree with others that this is also not anything to freak out over either. He could easily get called up after a month or so and be fine in terms of his development track. Honestly, the brass discussed changing his projection to Lowell after seeing him live, so this wasn't a huge surprise for those of us who saw him. The only recent comp is Owens, and the premise that he's much more raw at this point than Owens was is not a new idea. I echo this middle ground approach. The sky isn't falling. Ball can't be declared a bust at this point. All that said, it's clearly not a good thing that he couldn't earn his way onto a full season roster this year. While Owens may be the only appropriate comp in recent years, it's important to keep in mind that he was drafted at 36th overall based on talent - he didn't fall due to excessive bonus demands. So, at least in my mind, whatever incremental level of polish Owens had should have been off-set by the implied superior level of talent available to the Sox when picking 7th. Remember, talent and eventual production is not distributed in a linear fashion in the draft - it's highly concentrated towards the front half of the 1st round. While there are variations in the depth of the talent pool from year to year, it's hard to imagine that you'd have lower expectations for a 7th overall pick, no matter how raw, than you would a 36th overall pick. I'm sure there are people with more time and interest in doing this than myself, but I have a hypothesis that 1st round HS picks who aren't in full season ball the year after they were drafted have a MUCH lower success rate than those who do make it. Certainly that's the case for the Red Sox since the new ownership group took over. From a quick check of the draft history, I can identify just one HS pitcher who contributed at the ML level w/o earning a full season assignment the year after they were drafted - Drake Britton. Suffice to say, while Britton's career is still young, at the major league level, that's not the sort of trajectory we are looking for with a 7th overall pick. This will be interesting to watch.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 2, 2014 16:17:59 GMT -5
It was mentioned by Ian Cundall in the Scouting Scratch and by a couple other posters that Ball could end up debuting in Greenville. Is there a lot of precedent for the Red Sox doing that? I know that's what they did with Bogaerts, but he's obviously a very special player. I don't remember them doing it for a pitcher, but I admittedly haven't been following the transaction patterns for as long as some of you.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 2, 2014 16:47:30 GMT -5
By "doing that" do you mean sending a guy to Greenville after beginning the season in Extended? Sure. Happens all the time. The Drive added four guys from extended in April alone last year.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 2, 2014 17:28:37 GMT -5
Right, I phrased my question poorly. Last year's April promotions from XST to Greenville were Yunior Ortega, Jose Colorado, Kevin Mager, and Dreily Guerrero. Most of the promotions seemed to be fill-ins for other players who went on the DL - I don't see anyone who was moved up as sort of a chain of promotions, if that makes sense. What I'm wondering about are other situations like Bogaerts, where a higher-end prospect was assigned to Extended Spring Training out of spring training but then received a permanent promotion. Looks like they did it with Stephen Fife in 2009, and Henry Ramos in 2011, but it seems to be a rarity. And both Fife and Ramos had played at Lowell the previous season.
I'd be pretty happy to see Greenville as a starting point for Ball, so I'm just trying to gauge how optimistic I should be about it.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2014 20:45:05 GMT -5
In all honesty it is way too early to tell but the early indications are that last years draft might end up with Stank being the best find.
NWIH Ball should have been our #7 pick.
Denney is clearly a freight train to nowhere at this point at least.
None of the other guys appear to have outstanding stuff or ability. We will be lucky to get even an average draft year from 2013.
It seems that we might have just drafted from the BA top 100 lists and made it a numbers game. It's hard to believe they even had scouts talking much to Denney or researching his background to know anything about him before drafting. With Ball they drafted one heck of a skinny kid from a cold weather, low competition environment with a once in a lifetime #7 pick no less.
I don't want to be negative because I REALLY LIKE BALL AS A PERSON and want the best for him and no doubt he has potential. He definitely has a chance to be a star still but no way he would have been my #7 pick.
EDIT: He's got to find a way to just block this stuff out though and utilize his apparent coachability and learn how to pitch from a great staff and trust that his body will develop. He does have great athleticism for a big guy. The Redsox saw something in him and they have a good track record.
|
|
|
Trey Ball
Apr 2, 2014 21:08:18 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 2, 2014 21:08:18 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnddddd it's gone.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2014 8:45:09 GMT -5
It seems like Ball's stock has dropped in the past 3-4 days without him even pitching. Let's lock this thread before he turns into a complete bust.
|
|
|
Post by quintanariffic on Apr 3, 2014 11:57:10 GMT -5
Right, I phrased my question poorly. Last year's April promotions from XST to Greenville were Yunior Ortega, Jose Colorado, Kevin Mager, and Dreily Guerrero. Most of the promotions seemed to be fill-ins for other players who went on the DL - I don't see anyone who was moved up as sort of a chain of promotions, if that makes sense. What I'm wondering about are other situations like Bogaerts, where a higher-end prospect was assigned to Extended Spring Training out of spring training but then received a permanent promotion. Looks like they did it with Stephen Fife in 2009, and Henry Ramos in 2011, but it seems to be a rarity. And both Fife and Ramos had played at Lowell the previous season. I'd be pretty happy to see Greenville as a starting point for Ball, so I'm just trying to gauge how optimistic I should be about it. Pretty sure that Josh Reddick took that path.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 3, 2014 12:39:25 GMT -5
It seems like Ball's stock has dropped in the past 3-4 days without him even pitching. Let's lock this thread before he turns into a complete bust. I actually was the guy who said "no way in hell" they draft Ball with the #7 pick as it was too risky. So much for that projection. It's not that he's a bust at all. It's just that he was a huge risk in that slot. That is the point I think most people are making. It has nothing to do with his stock dropping in the last 3-4 days. Hopefully he becomes the stud we all want.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2014 13:09:47 GMT -5
It seems like Ball's stock has dropped in the past 3-4 days without him even pitching. Let's lock this thread before he turns into a complete bust. I actually was the guy who said "no way in hell" they draft Ball with the #7 pick as it was too risky. So much for that projection. It's not that he's a bust at all. It's just that he was a huge risk in that slot. That is the point I think most people are making. It has nothing to do with his stock dropping in the last 3-4 days. Hopefully he becomes the stud we all want. At this point all that is happening is that everyone is piling on and he's turning into a bust because of people one-upping each other. Nothing has really changed at all, only that he'll be in XST for now.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 3, 2014 13:38:03 GMT -5
that's the problem, nothing has changed. He was too big a risk at the time, and he's done nothing to mitigate that risk. It's not like he doesn't have a chance to be great, it's just that his risk is higher than you'd like at the 7th draft slot.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2014 13:47:31 GMT -5
that's the problem, nothing has changed. He was too big a risk at the time, and he's done nothing to mitigate that risk. It's not like he doesn't have a chance to be great, it's just that his risk is higher than you'd like at the 7th draft slot. If he shows no progress in the next year, then maybe. His season hasn't even started yet.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
|
Post by alnipper on Apr 3, 2014 14:17:19 GMT -5
How did he fair against other high school all-stars? At number 7 I would of drafted a higher bottom end prospect with good upside. Part of my disappointment is with how weak the 2013 draft was. Ball is a high risk prospect who I lowered my hopes on, since I took a look back on the 2013 draft.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 3, 2014 14:21:32 GMT -5
that's the problem, nothing has changed. He was too big a risk at the time, and he's done nothing to mitigate that risk. It's not like he doesn't have a chance to be great, it's just that his risk is higher than you'd like at the 7th draft slot. If he shows no progress in the next year, then maybe. His season hasn't even started yet. I mean, yeah, duh. That doesn't make me any more confident that a) he's not as risky as he seems, or b) his upside is enough to mitigate that risk, or c) top of the line pitchers are SO hard to find for a perennial contender that they HAD to take a chance on one when they got a shot. Anyway, I'm sorry, cause I'm arguing something from last June, and that decision is over... it's just that so little has changed in 10 months that there's no other argument to be made.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 3, 2014 14:21:54 GMT -5
Right, I phrased my question poorly. Last year's April promotions from XST to Greenville were Yunior Ortega, Jose Colorado, Kevin Mager, and Dreily Guerrero. Most of the promotions seemed to be fill-ins for other players who went on the DL - I don't see anyone who was moved up as sort of a chain of promotions, if that makes sense. What I'm wondering about are other situations like Bogaerts, where a higher-end prospect was assigned to Extended Spring Training out of spring training but then received a permanent promotion. Looks like they did it with Stephen Fife in 2009, and Henry Ramos in 2011, but it seems to be a rarity. And both Fife and Ramos had played at Lowell the previous season. I'd be pretty happy to see Greenville as a starting point for Ball, so I'm just trying to gauge how optimistic I should be about it. Pretty sure that Josh Reddick took that path. Good call. And the thing is, if you limit it to guys who are of a certain level of prospectdom, you're starting from a really small sample to begin with.
|
|
|