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Post by taftreign on Apr 11, 2014 16:41:42 GMT -5
I guess I don't get the worry. We're talking about a kid who came from a cold weather state (Indiana) who threw all of 46 HS innings entering the draft. Everything about this kid said projection when he was selected. He just recently started using a breaking ball for goodness sake. If he was a 2nd rounder no one would care and I'd bet most would be excited. So it"s short season. There are a dozen pitchers or so ahead of him in the system so why push. The systems not pitching starved. I'm not sure they would give him a full season workload anyway if he were in Greenville.
Chill out. Let"s let him get on the mound first. I wasn't a part of this site when Owens was drafted but what were the comments then. I'd say you should look at Ball the same with the major difference being draft position. Would you be happy with what you got from Owens if he was selected at 7 overall vs the supplemental. I think you would and Owens at least had 77 HS innings before being placed at Greenville. When I look at Ball I picture a younger Owens who may have greater velocity potential. Ball was a two way player and is now focusing strictly on pitching. I guess I have a little more faith. I get that Meadows has had early success but it doesn't always translate to high end major leaguer. It's too early to tell on any of the HS kids. I'm trying to reserve any judgement on Ball until next season afterl he has time to adjust. And if he does come out showing well in Lowell he will get a chance in Greenville sometime after the All-Star break.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 11, 2014 17:15:44 GMT -5
As a guy who liked Meadows I'm not worried about Ball. Why you say? Because I didn't spend countless hours and dedicated my life to figuring out every guy who was elegible to be drafted. It's cool to look back when we are " right" (I liked Nick Castellanos very much, the Red Sox took Vitek. I liked Wil Myers very much, so did the Red Sox as Wil has said he thought they were gonna draft him but they went with Fuentes I believe). But that means very little as we only have a fraction of the knowledge these guys have. I used to get worked up with the "they should have taken this guy instead" but I realized that I knew very little about these guys and that perhaps if I had the same info they had who says I wouldn't come to the same conclusion they did?
The Red Sox board clearly blow up in their face, their top 6 players in whatever order went infront of them. We know they liked Stewart and Frazier said he thought he was going to the Red Sox. So they went with Ball a risky pick but not an over draft by any measure, he went in the general area every one had him. I have been harping they take risk in the draft, they had been a bit conservative I thought, these are some of the consequences of taking risks and it's way to early to judge anything, the guy hasn't even pitch much. I hope they continue to take risks, it'll pay off at some point, especially on the position player side.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 11, 2014 18:23:12 GMT -5
As a guy who liked Meadows I'm not worried about Ball. Why you say? Because I didn't spend countless hours and dedicated my life to figuring out every guy who was elegible to be drafted. It's cool to look back when we are " right" (I liked Nick Castellanos very much, the Red Sox took Vitek. I liked Wil Myers very much, so did the Red Sox as Wil has said he thought they were gonna draft him but they went with Fuentes I believe). But that means very little as we only have a fraction of the knowledge these guys have. I used to get worked up with the "they should have taken this guy instead" but I realized that I knew very little about these guys and that perhaps if I had the same info they had who says I wouldn't come to the same conclusion they did? The Red Sox board clearly blow up in their face, their top 6 players in whatever order went infront of them. We know they liked Stewart and Frazier said he thought he was going to the Red Sox. So they went with Ball a risky pick but not an over draft by any measure, he went in the general area every one had him. I have been harping they take risk in the draft, they had been a bit conservative I thought, these are some of the consequences of taking risks and it's way to early to judge anything, the guy hasn't even pitch much. I hope they continue to take risks, it'll pay off at some point, especially on the position player side. I couldn't have said it any better. I agree 100% with everything you said.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 11, 2014 18:54:10 GMT -5
Me three, trying to figure out the draft as an amateur is a total waste of time. I don't even do it for the NFL and that would be a lot more doable than for MLB.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 11, 2014 18:57:26 GMT -5
Everyone's draft looks bad compared to what they could have drafted if they'd known the future.
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Post by njsox on Apr 12, 2014 14:12:33 GMT -5
As a guy who liked Meadows I'm not worried about Ball. Why you say? Because I didn't spend countless hours and dedicated my life to figuring out every guy who was elegible to be drafted. It's cool to look back when we are " right" (I liked Nick Castellanos very much, the Red Sox took Vitek. I liked Wil Myers very much, so did the Red Sox as Wil has said he thought they were gonna draft him but they went with Fuentes I believe). But that means very little as we only have a fraction of the knowledge these guys have. I used to get worked up with the "they should have taken this guy instead" but I realized that I knew very little about these guys and that perhaps if I had the same info they had who says I wouldn't come to the same conclusion they did? The Red Sox board clearly blow up in their face, their top 6 players in whatever order went infront of them. We know they liked Stewart and Frazier said he thought he was going to the Red Sox. So they went with Ball a risky pick but not an over draft by any measure, he went in the general area every one had him. I have been harping they take risk in the draft, they had been a bit conservative I thought, these are some of the consequences of taking risks and it's way to early to judge anything, the guy hasn't even pitch much. I hope they continue to take risks, it'll pay off at some point, especially on the position player side. Great post. My personal opininion is that the Sox knew they already had lots of depth in the system and hoped they would never have to draft as high as 7 again so they took the guy with presumably the highest upside on the board regardless of the probability of him reaching that upside. If that's the case it's not terrible logic. I loved Meadows early on, but by draft time the scoutng reports were so weak on him for a top 10 player. You look at Ball and you see a tall, scrawny lefty that has barely pitched and can sit in the high 80's with his fastball. His innings limit this year will only be 75 or 80 innings, so it will be more of a real senior year of high school like something a Texas prospect would have had. Unfortunately we will have to wait until next spring to really start to form our opinions on Ball. Let's not forget either that Ball was a consensus top 10 so if we didn't take him there was a good chance he was going in the next pick or 2 and I guarantee at the time of the draft Red Sox nation would have really questioned passing on him.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 13, 2014 13:07:40 GMT -5
I guess I don't get the worry. We're talking about a kid who came from a cold weather state (Indiana) who threw all of 46 HS innings entering the draft. Everything about this kid said projection when he was selected. He just recently started using a breaking ball for goodness sake. If he was a 2nd rounder no one would care and I'd bet most would be excited. So it"s short season. There are a dozen pitchers or so ahead of him in the system so why push. The systems not pitching starved. I'm not sure they would give him a full season workload anyway if he were in Greenville. Chill out. Let"s let him get on the mound first. I wasn't a part of this site when Owens was drafted but what were the comments then. I'd say you should look at Ball the same with the major difference being draft position. Would you be happy with what you got from Owens if he was selected at 7 overall vs the supplemental. I think you would and Owens at least had 77 HS innings before being placed at Greenville. When I look at Ball I picture a younger Owens who may have greater velocity potential. Ball was a two way player and is now focusing strictly on pitching. I guess I have a little more faith. I get that Meadows has had early success but it doesn't always translate to high end major leaguer. It's too early to tell on any of the HS kids. I'm trying to reserve any judgement on Ball until next season afterl he has time to adjust. And if he does come out showing well in Lowell he will get a chance in Greenville sometime after the All-Star break. How do we pick a guy #7 in the entire draft who had only pitched 46 innings in a cold weather state, against presumably little competition? That alone makes this decision questionable.
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Trey Ball
Apr 13, 2014 13:38:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 13, 2014 13:38:24 GMT -5
Maybe because they saw him up to 96 in said bad weather with potentially above avg secondary offerings? Less questionable now?
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Post by templeusox on Apr 13, 2014 13:38:30 GMT -5
I guess I don't get the worry. We're talking about a kid who came from a cold weather state (Indiana) who threw all of 46 HS innings entering the draft. Everything about this kid said projection when he was selected. He just recently started using a breaking ball for goodness sake. If he was a 2nd rounder no one would care and I'd bet most would be excited. So it"s short season. There are a dozen pitchers or so ahead of him in the system so why push. The systems not pitching starved. I'm not sure they would give him a full season workload anyway if he were in Greenville. Chill out. Let"s let him get on the mound first. I wasn't a part of this site when Owens was drafted but what were the comments then. I'd say you should look at Ball the same with the major difference being draft position. Would you be happy with what you got from Owens if he was selected at 7 overall vs the supplemental. I think you would and Owens at least had 77 HS innings before being placed at Greenville. When I look at Ball I picture a younger Owens who may have greater velocity potential. Ball was a two way player and is now focusing strictly on pitching. I guess I have a little more faith. I get that Meadows has had early success but it doesn't always translate to high end major leaguer. It's too early to tell on any of the HS kids. I'm trying to reserve any judgement on Ball until next season afterl he has time to adjust. And if he does come out showing well in Lowell he will get a chance in Greenville sometime after the All-Star break. How do we pick a guy #7 in the entire draft who had only pitched 46 innings in a cold weather state, against presumably little competition? That alone makes this decision questionable. Because he was well regarded and highly scouted? These kids don't just play high school ball. There's tons of showcases and circuits where they can be measured against other top level talent from around the country.
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Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2014 14:59:00 GMT -5
I guess I don't get the worry. We're talking about a kid who came from a cold weather state (Indiana) who threw all of 46 HS innings entering the draft. Everything about this kid said projection when he was selected. He just recently started using a breaking ball for goodness sake. If he was a 2nd rounder no one would care and I'd bet most would be excited. So it"s short season. There are a dozen pitchers or so ahead of him in the system so why push. The systems not pitching starved. I'm not sure they would give him a full season workload anyway if he were in Greenville. Chill out. Let"s let him get on the mound first. I wasn't a part of this site when Owens was drafted but what were the comments then. I'd say you should look at Ball the same with the major difference being draft position. Would you be happy with what you got from Owens if he was selected at 7 overall vs the supplemental. I think you would and Owens at least had 77 HS innings before being placed at Greenville. When I look at Ball I picture a younger Owens who may have greater velocity potential. Ball was a two way player and is now focusing strictly on pitching. I guess I have a little more faith. I get that Meadows has had early success but it doesn't always translate to high end major leaguer. It's too early to tell on any of the HS kids. I'm trying to reserve any judgement on Ball until next season afterl he has time to adjust. And if he does come out showing well in Lowell he will get a chance in Greenville sometime after the All-Star break. How do we pick a guy #7 in the entire draft who had only pitched 46 innings in a cold weather state, against presumably little competition? That alone makes this decision questionable. Mike Trout was from a cold weather state and was only converted to the outfield his senior year (he pitched and played shortstop his first three years)-- I guess you wouldn't have drafted him either? Sometimes to get a prospect with a high-upside ceiling (which Ball undoubtedly still has), you have to take some risks. Besides, while the 7th pick is higher than we're used to, that draft had a clear first tier and second tier of prospects, and Boston was unlucky enough to be picking when all the first-tier guys had been taken already. Ball may or may not end up being a good draft pick at that spot, but it's entirely hindsight to suggest, as you do here, that taking him seventh was negligent or whatever. It was a defensible pick at the time, and it's far too early to be casting judgment with any real weight behind it.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 13, 2014 19:01:22 GMT -5
My understanding is that he played in some showcases but no matter how you looked at it 46 innings, if accurate, should raise eyebrows. And that 96 mph seems to be nowhere in sight now.
I read quite a bit about Ball and like him a lot personally. He seems like an absolutely terrific young man. I don't want to keep pounding on him. I wish him the very best.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 13, 2014 21:26:46 GMT -5
I know it's easy to question a 46 inning sample in general. However in such situations you at least want to see a 6-0 record while sporting a 0.76 era with 7.15 k/bb and 18.2 k/9 rates even if you question the competition. Essentially it comes down to your faith in the scouting department particularly with an emphasis in HS talent.
My read on the draft day situation is the club wanted the highest potential upside while picking in the top 10. I believe they must have shared the concerns that others had that Meadows didn't project to stick in CF and likely wouldn't provide enough pop as a corner OF to warrant top 10. I suspect the projectability of Ball was off the charts considering his size, fresh arm, continuing advancement of his pitch repotoire and his future focus on strictly pitching versus being a two way player. Perhaps they were emboldened by another tall lefty who has had great success of late. Other HS pitchers of recent draft history include 6-6 righty Ty Buttrey, 6-4 lefty Cody Kukuk and 6-2 righty Jaime Callahan. Not a bad track record IMO.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2014 23:06:11 GMT -5
Honestly I was surprised that the Sox didn't take Austin Meadows. The Red Sox aren't exactly bursting with high upside corner OFs with power and I thought that the Sox #1 target was Clint Frazier who was often compared with Meadows (although Frazier was seen as having more raw power), so I thought it would make sense that they targeted Meadows second.
But given that there was also a lot of talk about the Sox and Kohl Stewart the Sox went with the one guy that could be an ace. Of course he could easily be a guy that doesn't make it above AA.
I guess that the Sox like his makeup, his athleticism, and that his arm hasn't been abused. They would know a lot better than I would, so we'll see how this turns out. Hope they're right. It's not every year (thankfully) that the Sox pick this high and the one thing this system does lack besides power in the outfield is a guy with ace potential (although Owens is doing a very good impression of one)
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 14, 2014 7:04:23 GMT -5
The 46 innings is a complete non-issue. First, high school stats are 100% meaningless. Second, teams generally don't have the resources to scout all possible picks every single time they play. 46 innings is more than enough to get several looks at a player from multiple levels of the scouting department. Even if Ball threw twice as many innings, it may not have affected how many looks the Sox scouts got.
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Trey Ball
Apr 14, 2014 9:19:44 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by justen on Apr 14, 2014 9:19:44 GMT -5
My understanding is that he played in some showcases but no matter how you looked at it 46 innings, if accurate, should raise eyebrows. And that 96 mph seems to be nowhere in sight now. I read quite a bit about Ball and like him a lot personally. He seems like an absolutely terrific young man. I don't want to keep pounding on him. I wish him the very best. Obviously when you're pitching in front of a ton of scouts you're going to show you're best stuff, in reference to his "96 No longer being in sight". Let's not forget this kid is pretty sneaky athletic considering his long lanky build, and his mechanics aren't that of a complete project. He has an idea and his athleticism is one big positive to his potential of developing as a pitcher; repeating delivery, release point, as well as eventually filling out and increasing and maintaining velocity. I had and still have absolutely no problem with this pick as Ball is easy to dream on at or near the top of the future of this rotation, or turning into a very valuable trade assett. Red Sox fans are very often obnoxiously demanding of immediate success, but Ball certainly looks like one that will take some patience.
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Post by scredsox on Apr 14, 2014 22:03:41 GMT -5
I know it's easy to question a 46 inning sample in general. However in such situations you at least want to see a 6-0 record while sporting a 0.76 era with 7.15 k/bb and 18.2 k/9 rates even if you question the competition. Essentially it comes down to your faith in the scouting department particularly with an emphasis in HS talent. My read on the draft day situation is the club wanted the highest potential upside while picking in the top 10. I believe they must have shared the concerns that others had that Meadows didn't project to stick in CF and likely wouldn't provide enough pop as a corner OF to warrant top 10. I suspect the projectability of Ball was off the charts considering his size, fresh arm, continuing advancement of his pitch repotoire and his future focus on strictly pitching versus being a two way player. Perhaps they were emboldened by another tall lefty who has had great success of late. Other HS pitchers of recent draft history include 6-6 righty Ty Buttrey, 6-4 lefty Cody Kukuk and 6-2 righty Jaime Callahan. Not a bad track record IMO. Boston has put a premium on tall pitchers and that is one of the reasons why they took Ball. I couldn't find the article, but there is one floating around where Sawdaye talks about the philosophy they use in picking pitchers. Talks about how big their high draft picks are with Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, Pat Light, Ty Buttrey, Stankiewicz, and Jamie Callahan (who measured 6'4, 225 in the spring) all being 6'4 and up.
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 15, 2014 10:49:48 GMT -5
How do we pick a guy #7 in the entire draft who had only pitched 46 innings in a cold weather state, against presumably little competition? That alone makes this decision questionable. I'd love to hear the explanation for this theory....you realize that some of these kids don't get to choose where they live right? If he has the stuff he has the stuff and everyone before the draft said this kid could very well have the stuff. I'm not sure why you think anything changed now. He is a 19 year old kid. Any valid reasons why you think it is a bad pick?
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Post by raftsox on Apr 15, 2014 11:20:50 GMT -5
Boston has put a premium on tall pitchers and that is one of the reasons why they took Ball. I couldn't find the article, but there is one floating around where Sawdaye talks about the philosophy they use in picking pitchers. Talks about how big their high draft picks are with Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, Pat Light, Ty Buttrey, Stankiewicz, and Jamie Callahan (who measured 6'4, 225 in the spring) all being 6'4 and up. It's from a Speier podcast.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Apr 15, 2014 11:34:59 GMT -5
baseballprospectnation.com/2013/05/30/scouting-report-trey-ball-lhp/www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20615here are a couple pre draft report links and a Callis quote regarding two way players... "The 2013 draftee with the best fallback plan is New Castle (Ind.) High’s Trey Ball, who likely will be a top-10-overall choice as a lefthanded pitcher. Coming into the year, scouts were split on whether Ball had a brighter future as an outfielder or a pitcher. He has put that debate to rest by showing a 91-94 mph fastball and an improved curveball this spring, but he also would merit a second- or third-round selecton as a position player. He projects as an athletic right fielder with above-average lefthanded power potential and arm strength". By next summer, we should know if Trey is a pitcher. if not, it might be like adding a supplemental round outfielder then.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 15, 2014 14:23:30 GMT -5
baseballprospectnation.com/2013/05/30/scouting-report-trey-ball-lhp/www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20615here are a couple pre draft report links and a Callis quote regarding two way players... "The 2013 draftee with the best fallback plan is New Castle (Ind.) High’s Trey Ball, who likely will be a top-10-overall choice as a lefthanded pitcher. Coming into the year, scouts were split on whether Ball had a brighter future as an outfielder or a pitcher. He has put that debate to rest by showing a 91-94 mph fastball and an improved curveball this spring, but he also would merit a second- or third-round selecton as a position player. He projects as an athletic right fielder with above-average lefthanded power potential and arm strength". By next summer, we should know if Trey is a pitcher. if not, it might be like adding a supplemental round outfielder then. So your saying between Trey Ball and Brian Johnson we may have RF and 1B taken care of.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 15, 2014 14:30:08 GMT -5
Now if we could only re-acquire Casey Kelly.
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Post by njsox on Apr 23, 2014 22:19:31 GMT -5
Nervous about the news that Trey is being assigned to Greenville, hope this is because he impressed in XST and not because of the expectations of a #7 draft pick. Would be amazing for the system if Ball holds his own and/or shows some flashes in Greenville
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2014 22:22:04 GMT -5
Really doubt this is just a PR move. There are maybe a hundred of us minor league dorks who care at all where Ball starts his career, and this isn't a front office who generally cares about stuff like that (e.g., they regularly start polished college pitchers like Workman or Barnes in Greenville).
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Post by njsox on Apr 23, 2014 22:32:36 GMT -5
Really doubt this is just a PR move. There are maybe a hundred of us minor league dorks who care at all where Ball starts his career, and this isn't a front office who generally cares about stuff like that (e.g., they regularly start polished college pitchers like Workman or Barnes in Greenville). Wasn't necessarily thinking a PR move per se, but from the early scouting reports we have had on Ball, Greenville is an aggressive move. Most recently we had Callahan and Buttrey (2nd and 4th round HS picks) go through Lowell before getting a shot at Greenville. These seem to have set the precedent for how we have been handling our HS pitchers, so I am just really curious what Ball has shown to earn the Greenville assignment if it has zero to do with his draft placement.
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Trey Ball
Apr 23, 2014 23:38:40 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 23, 2014 23:38:40 GMT -5
Owens started in Greeville. There is no precedent (They haven't drafted many HS arms of this level) of how they do things, everyone is different with different development plans. They may have felt he needed to stay back for a couple of weeks or wanted to get Light off to a good start before moving him up a level. There are a million ways to spin this unless there is concrete information as to their thinking.
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