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Closer for the rest of 2013 (and 2014?)
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Post by mainesox on Jun 23, 2013 16:10:43 GMT -5
Who was it that advocated using Miller as a closer? The hit batsman and the wild throw to first exemplify his vulnerabilities. And I hate to see him come in with men on base.....Speaking of which, why aren't we giving Bailey a mental break....oh yeah... we have no one else. Prediction....We will trade for a reliever shortly. To get a decent one, we will probably have to lose a couple of our top 10 prospects. Tazawa could have pitched another inning, or Uehara could have come in; despite how several guys pitched today any one of them would have been a better decision than Bailey there.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 23, 2013 16:31:30 GMT -5
Who was it that advocated using Miller as a closer? The hit batsman and the wild throw to first exemplify his vulnerabilities. And I hate to see him come in with men on base.....Speaking of which, why aren't we giving Bailey a mental break....oh yeah... we have no one else. Prediction....We will trade for a reliever shortly. To get a decent one, we will probably have to lose a couple of our top 10 prospects. Tazawa could have pitched another inning, or Uehara could have come in; despite how several guys pitched today any one of them would have been a better decision than Bailey there. Think we are seeing Farrell stick with people struggling too long, just like Francona did. That needs to change in a pennant race. Only Kennedy and Morgan were quick to pull the rope with struggling veterans in last several decades. Massaging egos to get people on track (Middlebrooks/Bailey) is hurting this team and has already cost them 3-4 games this year. John needs to get a bit tougher with at least Bailey and demote him if that option is available. The spot in the BP needs taken up at least by a longman as has been shown of late and Middlebrooks isn't helping the team at all, Iglesias has been clearly out playing him in every facet. Holt, even Sutton could be a once a week utility guy.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 23, 2013 17:16:07 GMT -5
The arguments for using your best reliever in the 6th or 7th inning are flawed. What high end relief pitcher is going to do this? None. The best relief pitchers are closers and paid as such. The only way that it happens is if it is someone who develops and turns into your best while you already have a closer.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2013 17:18:18 GMT -5
That inning we just watched is a perfect example of what we are talking about. They couldn't use Uehara there to face the heart of Detriot's lineup in a 1 run game because 'he's the closer' now, so instead they went with lesser relievers and the game is tied, and we have to hope the offense comes back for Uehara to even get a chance in this game now. Use Uehara there and we (likely) still have the lead and (assuming you aren't an idiot and going to use Bailey, which is apparently too much to assume with Farrell) you can get by in the 8th and 9th pitching Breslow/Miller/Wilson/whoever against the bottom parts of their lineup. The bullpen stunk today so even if Uehara gets out of the jam I certainly don't expect the other guys they had in today to hold the lead in the 9th. Today the defense and the bullpen were just plain bad. And yes, Bailey had no business pitching in a close game, and Tazawa most certainly should have pitched more than one inning - I don't agree with Farrell's one inning pitched and done policy on relievers. Especially a young guy like Tazawa.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 23, 2013 17:36:31 GMT -5
The arguments for using your best reliever in the 6th or 7th inning are flawed. What high end relief pitcher is going to do this? None. The best relief pitchers are closers and paid as such. The only way that it happens is if it is someone who develops and turns into your best while you already have a closer. That's a good point. I remember saying that the sox would be a better team with Drew at 3rd and Iggy at SS. But either Drew couldn't play 3rd or wouldn't. I was told no way a player tells management where they play. Drew signed to prove he was healthy at SS and get a long term deal. I could see him refusing to play 3rd. I can also see a veteran closer refusing to pitch in the 6th or 7th because of money. It might not be right but I think it would happen.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 23, 2013 17:36:49 GMT -5
I do agree about Bailey though if they were going to use him it should have been in the 6th against the bottom of the lineup not the 7th. I thought they were going to use Taz for 2 innings.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 23, 2013 17:41:44 GMT -5
The arguments for using your best reliever in the 6th or 7th inning are flawed. What high end relief pitcher is going to do this? None. The best relief pitchers are closers and paid as such. The only way that it happens is if it is someone who develops and turns into your best while you already have a closer. Any of them are going to do it if their manager tells them to, and just because convention says that's how it's done (and the pay structure is set up based on it being done that way) doesn't make it the right decision.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 23, 2013 18:39:27 GMT -5
What world are you living in? This is not 1970. No way are you going to be able to use your closer like that. You can argue it is the right way but it is not going to happen. The only way to do it is with guys coming up through the system that just want to break in. Once they are established they want to finish games and get paid for finishing the games. Which means for all your arguments against it you will need to take someone like Rubby who has never pitched over 120 innings in a season and put him in the pen. The most ideal arm for an old school relief pitcher is Aceves. Someone who can go multiple innings and come back the next day.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 23, 2013 18:56:30 GMT -5
What world are you living in? This is not 1970. No way are you going to be able to use your closer like that. You can argue it is the right way but it is not going to happen. The only way to do it is with guys coming up through the system that just want to break in. Once they are established they want to finish games and get paid for finishing the games. Which means for all your arguments against it you will need to take someone like Rubby who has never pitched over 120 innings in a season and put him in the pen. The most ideal arm for an old school relief pitcher is Aceves. Someone who can go multiple innings and come back the next day. ...What? It's old, antiquated ideas 'forcing' them to use closers that way, not old ideas saying they shouldn't. The whole closer role was made up specifically to chase a made up stat (a stat that is on par with pitcher wins, and RBI).
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Post by onbase on Jun 23, 2013 19:00:32 GMT -5
Thanks for this answer FTHW, it really helps clarify what we're talking about. I'm going to try to insert comments after each point, but please forgive me if I screw up the BB code.The obvious solution is to have more than one pitcher who can handle high leverage situations, and realistically you aren't going to the post season with one relief ace and a bunch of losers. But how do you "know" that the 9th inning is unlikely to be high leverage? If it's close enough in the middle innings to justify using a relief ace, does that guarantee a three run or more lead in the 9th? What am I missing? There's a number of things to consider here. 1. The closer model tends to prevent teams from bringing in their best reliever at the time he's most useful, IE with runners on base. Always handing him a clean inning in the ninth reduces the amount of high-leverage situations he faces. Yes, but is your closer always your best reliever, or is he your best closer? If it's the latter, there's no issue. For a couple of years, Bard was the guy best at putting out fires, and Papelbon (who I do NOT want back) was the best closer, and that model worked pretty well.2. The closer model also tends to prevent your best reliever from pitching to the opposing team's best hitters. Going into the eighth inning, it's not a mystery as to when Miguel Cabrera or Chris Davis or Mike Trout or Bryce Harper or whoever is due up. Use your best reliever against those guys. Don't use him to pitch to the .650 OPS catcher due up in the ninth. If you're talking about the eighth inning, this matchup argument makes sense. But earlier in the game, too much can happen to change who the closer might be facing.3. Ditto for matchups. There was all this talk of Miller versus Uehara in the ninth. Well, why are we deciding based on inning? If there's going to be a bunch of lefties up in the eighth, use Miller in the eighth. If they're coming up in the ninth, use him in the ninth. Especially with the lack of pinch-hitters in today's game, playing matchups this way can be a huge strategic advantage. But you can't do that when using the closer model. Not sure I want Miller in with the game on the line in any inning, but yes, use your effective lefty specialist in the situation you describe. 4. If you're going to your best reliever earlier, and you're getting out of the mindset of "this is my eighth inning guy, this is my ninth inning guy", you can give your best reliever a chance to face more batters. Junichi Tazawa is probably the best reliever that the Red Sox currently have. He's also ridiculously efficient. So hypothetically, there's one down, runners first and second in the eighth. Bring in Tazawa. After he retires those last two batters on six pitches, just bring him back for the ninth. Oh wait, we can't do that because Uehara is The Closer. So your most effective reliever throws more warmup pitches than game pitches, and you've burned two relievers when you probably only needed one, and now tomorrow's starter has to go deep because the bullpen is tired. From what I've seen and heard, Farrell would do as you recommend if Koji pitched the day before and Taz was fresh enough. There's just so many things wrong with how modern bullpens are run, and they're all related to A) assigning particular innings to particular pitchers for no real reason and B) managing to an arbitrary stat. You can talk all you want about how you can't come back from a blown lead in the ninth, but I'm sorry, a three run lead with no one on base is not a pressure situation. Teams average less than five runs per NINE innings in today's game. It would never even occurs to managers to use their best reliever in that situation if no one had ever attached a "save" to it, which is really just an accident of history because forty years ago when they came up with this damn rule, one-inning relievers didn't exist. Regarding A) we've been told by Francona and now Farrell that players thrive on knowing their roles and how they will be used in the next game (to the extent that can be predicted). Maybe that's BS. Maybe agents are paying them under the table to pad their client's stats. But I can't think of any reason not to maximize player effectiveness and if defined roles does that, I'm not sure it's all that evil.
Regarding B) W's, L's, and SV's are all team stats. But I want the best closer saved for the end of the game whenever possible because what's being saved is a team effort.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 24, 2013 7:17:32 GMT -5
According to Nick Cafardo, the Sox have some interest in Steve Cichek, closer for the Marlins. We don't see much of him hereabouts but he is a Falmouth HS grad who has put up good numbers for Miami the last two seasons. Has 12 sv thusfar in 2013 with 15 last year. Still young (27, he's put up 9.1k to 3.6BB last four years.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 24, 2013 7:22:16 GMT -5
According to Nick Cafardo, the Sox have some interest in Steve Cichek, closer for the Marlins. We don't see much of him hereabouts but he is a Falmouth HS grad who has put up good numbers for Miami the last two seasons. Has 12 sv thusfar in 2013 with 15 last year. Still young (27, he's put up 9.1k to 3.6BB last four years. Hanrahan light?
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Post by bluechip on Jun 24, 2013 7:46:39 GMT -5
According to Nick Cafardo, the Sox have some interest in Steve Cichek, closer for the Marlins. We don't see much of him hereabouts but he is a Falmouth HS grad who has put up good numbers for Miami the last two seasons. Has 12 sv thusfar in 2013 with 15 last year. Still young (27, he's put up 9.1k to 3.6BB last four years. I hope they don't trade more than a Brentz for a closer.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 24, 2013 8:04:12 GMT -5
According to Nick Cafardo, the Sox have some interest in Steve Cichek, closer for the Marlins. We don't see much of him hereabouts but he is a Falmouth HS grad who has put up good numbers for Miami the last two seasons. Has 12 sv thusfar in 2013 with 15 last year. Still young (27, he's put up 9.1k to 3.6BB last four years. I hope they don't trade more than a Brentz for a closer. The type of closer we get isn't going to be any better than what we have. I'd be hestitant to even give up Brentz. Is Cishek better than Breslow? I doubt it. I'd rather use our assets to make a bigger trade for a starter. Probably not Cliff Lee given his salary. But, maybe someone who is an upgrade over Lester.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2013 21:29:17 GMT -5
The arguments for using your best reliever in the 6th or 7th inning are flawed. What high end relief pitcher is going to do this? None. The best relief pitchers are closers and paid as such. The only way that it happens is if it is someone who develops and turns into your best while you already have a closer. We can only hope for a new closer stat to be created that is worth more than saves. The guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs and gets out of a jam in a tie game deserves a lot more than a closer who gets a save in the 9th of a 3 run game with no one on base. That could eliminate all of this nonsense.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2013 21:44:58 GMT -5
The arguments for using your best reliever in the 6th or 7th inning are flawed. What high end relief pitcher is going to do this? None. The best relief pitchers are closers and paid as such. The only way that it happens is if it is someone who develops and turns into your best while you already have a closer. We can only hope for a new closer stat to be created that is worth more than saves. The guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs and gets out of a jam in a tie game deserves a lot more than a closer who gets a save in the 9th of a 3 run game with no one on base. That could eliminate all of this nonsense. www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2013 21:56:25 GMT -5
We can only hope for a new closer stat to be created that is worth more than saves. The guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs and gets out of a jam in a tie game deserves a lot more than a closer who gets a save in the 9th of a 3 run game with no one on base. That could eliminate all of this nonsense. www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/Awesome, I would have bet there was one. Now let it take over for saves in determining relief pitcher worth in the mainstream!
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 25, 2013 1:38:12 GMT -5
We can only hope for a new closer stat to be created that is worth more than saves. The guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs and gets out of a jam in a tie game deserves a lot more than a closer who gets a save in the 9th of a 3 run game with no one on base. That could eliminate all of this nonsense. www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/I've been doing quite a bit of reading on this. Here's a list of RP which could be changing teams this year sorted by +WPA: linkSeems like Jessie Crain should be the top target if we go after any bullpen help. Then again, Melancon is one of the most effective RP this season using the same criteria. It's also interesting that both Tazawa and Uehara have been about equal to Papelbon.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 25, 2013 6:05:24 GMT -5
www.courierpostonline.com/viewart/20130625/SPORTS01/306250029"Papelbon had converted all 13 of his save opportunities going into last week, but he’s blown four of five attempts since — several in particularly frustrating fashion. In his last five games, the five-time All-Star has allowed five runs (three earned) and seven hits over five innings. He’s given up two homers, walked two batters and hit another with a pitch."
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 25, 2013 6:42:11 GMT -5
www.courierpostonline.com/viewart/20130625/SPORTS01/306250029"Papelbon had converted all 13 of his save opportunities going into last week, but he’s blown four of five attempts since — several in particularly frustrating fashion. In his last five games, the five-time All-Star has allowed five runs (three earned) and seven hits over five innings. He’s given up two homers, walked two batters and hit another with a pitch." Well, at least Papelbon is helping push the Phillies out of contention while likely reducing the asking price for him. The Tigers might be able to get him for Castellanos and a couple of lower level prospects.
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Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2013 7:26:23 GMT -5
Heh, no chance the Tigers give up Castellanos for Papelbon.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jun 25, 2013 7:34:53 GMT -5
Who was it that advocated using Miller as a closer? The hit batsman and the wild throw to first exemplify his vulnerabilities. And I hate to see him come in with men on base.....Speaking of which, why aren't we giving Bailey a mental break....oh yeah... we have no one else. Prediction....We will trade for a reliever shortly. To get a decent one, we will probably have to lose a couple of our top 10 prospects. Tazawa could have pitched another inning, or Uehara could have come in; despite how several guys pitched today any one of them would have been a better decision than Bailey there. Only way I see us giving up a or a couple top ten prospects is if we get a CL and a good one. Getting a guy like Steve Cishek, the local guy wouldnt cost to much or Jesse Crain even wouldnt cost a heck of alot the White Sox are none to overpay and undersell and just make bad deals period and Crain wouldnt cost more then some would think imo, Papelbon would and Glen Perkins would cost alot tho.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 25, 2013 7:45:48 GMT -5
Heh, no chance the Tigers give up Castellanos for Papelbon. Maybe so, however the Tigers chances of winning the World Series aren't very good unless they add a couple late inning relievers who are more reliable than the flotsam and jetsam they have now. They are going to have to give up some major pieces of their farm system to get these relievers.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jun 25, 2013 8:10:22 GMT -5
The Red Sox are in the right place but stupid if they try to trade for a closer because the team is not in contention for a World Series until this AWESOME next wave of prospects come up and if you sell those prospects off than there is no real point in the future because of how naturally uncertain the closer role is(ie. Joel Hanarhan gets 40 saves last year, Andrew Bailey is an all-star). This team right now is built to entertain the fans and get to the playoffs and try to make some noise but they wont win it all until they get the prospects into Boston. They are and should go to the bitter end with the team that they have now.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 25, 2013 8:37:52 GMT -5
I agree this team shouldn't trade any legitimate prospects ( I include Brentz) on that list for reinforcements this season. Ts not because I don't believe they cannot win a WS though, it's because I don't think it increases their chances enough and BC has done exactly what he hoped with this team while preparing for the future. I say stay the course, unless a starter is available that can help long term. I would even look to possibly package Lester for something.
Perhaps, you can get someone in contention to overpay for Lester then snag Nolasco for something cheaper.
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