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WHERE can Ellsbury End Up?
steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 10, 2012 11:43:27 GMT -5
I've always loved Jacoby Ellsbury's game (just look at my icon), but what we do or not do with Ells this off-season is very important to how we proceed with our other needs (and boy do we have a few!).
After first thinking we need to work out the best deal possible for him this winter (a starter please), I've changed my mind. Jacoby has had only ONE great year and Boras is sure to want 20 mill plus for at least 5 years. He is, at this moment, not close to being worth that. I do think Ben should attempt to work-out a solid 5 year contract for him.....say 14 or 15 mill per year. We all know Boras would consult him to say NO THANKS.
I initially felt at this time, Ben should go ahead and move him. NOW I'm not seeing it that way. The reason? Where will Boras and Ellsbury ever get that primo contract? This is taking into account he has a 2nd great year.
A funny benefit from the Dodger trade is.......Crawford has taken that option away. LA has always been a strong possibility for Ells......not now! The Angels? No way with the next Mickey Mantle playing center already (Trout). We have always considered Ellsbury wanting to head back to the west coast when reaching free agency. WHERE? I guess Seattle is a possibility.
What other BIG spending club is out there to make Scott Boras and Jacoby Ellsbury happy men? I can see them finally having to "settle" for maybe 15 mill per year, and that gives a team like the Sox a real chance. Again, I love his skills, but he's done it one time!
So for me....we make the initial 5 year offer, get turned down, and let Ells hopefully "tear" it up next year. We then offer the figure that allows us to receive a pick and continue to try to sign him for a reasonable amount. If he leaves, Bradley will be ready and we will move on.
My question, once again, where can he possibly go that satisfies him and his agent?
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Post by mainesox on Sept 10, 2012 11:57:01 GMT -5
I think Washington is probably his most likely destination, either in a trade or in free agency. They have a need, and they don't seem to mind dealing with Boras (or paying whatever he asks).
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 10, 2012 12:04:59 GMT -5
I think Washington is probably his most likely destination, either in a trade or in free agency. They have a need, and they don't seem to mind dealing with Boras (or paying whatever he asks). I can see Washington also. They have the dough and a need, but it certainly isn't out west. Maybe the west coast won't be a big part of his decision.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 10, 2012 13:16:08 GMT -5
I think we should sign him. I don't believe he will command a $20 mil per year contract because I don't think he will ever have another year like last year ever again. I do think he will have a very good year next year though and will be looking for a long term deal. I think the Sox should offer him a 5 year deal after the season is over next year and see what happens. I think The NY Mets, Philadelphia, & Washington, all could be interested and possibly; Baltimore, Texas, Chicago White Sox, Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, St Louis, & San Francisco
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 10, 2012 13:57:42 GMT -5
I think we should sign him. I don't believe he will command a $20 mil per year contract because I don't think he will ever have another year like last year ever again. I do think he will have a very good year next year though and will be looking for a long term deal. I think the Sox should offer him a 5 year deal after the season is over next year and see what happens. I think The NY Mets, Philadelphia, & Washington, all could be interested and possibly; Baltimore, Texas, Chicago White Sox, Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, St Louis, & San Francisco My problem with some of the teams named is their lack of desire to spend freely or they already have a decent centerfield candidate in their system. Of course, if it is more on the 14 to 15 million per year side.....some may be tempted to raise their payrolls. Either way, I do think keeping Ells next year is the best thing to do. Lets see what he can do over another full season.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 10, 2012 14:07:00 GMT -5
Let him show that he can come close to replicating his 2011 performance in the first part of next season. Then, assuming we're not in the hunt for a playoff slot, move him at the deadline.
Some say the best time to trade him is in the off season rather than at the deadline. But, as expressed above, his value is somewhat diminished by his lack of production this season, injury notwithstanding.
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Post by jdb on Sept 10, 2012 16:09:47 GMT -5
Im sure a 'Mystery Team" will be there. Like someone said the Nats seem like a great destination but I think most teams would prefer M Bourne since he isnt costing top prospects. Im thinking he gets Jose Reyes money.
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Post by curll on Sept 10, 2012 16:20:48 GMT -5
It'd make sense for the M's to take a run at him in FA.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 10, 2012 16:59:42 GMT -5
I think we should sign him. I don't believe he will command a $20 mil per year contract because I don't think he will ever have another year like last year ever again. I do think he will have a very good year next year though and will be looking for a long term deal. I think the Sox should offer him a 5 year deal after the season is over next year and see what happens. I think The NY Mets, Philadelphia, & Washington, all could be interested and possibly; Baltimore, Texas, Chicago White Sox, Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, St Louis, & San Francisco My problem with some of the teams named is their lack of desire to spend freely or they already have a decent centerfield candidate in their system. Of course, if it is more on the 14 to 15 million per year side.....some may be tempted to raise their payrolls. Either way, I do think keeping Ells next year is the best thing to do. Lets see what he can do over another full season. I don't feel he's even worth 14-15 million. I'd offer him a qualifying offer and that's it. So, we get the draft pick. JBJ offers a very similiar skill set at about a total of 12-15 million over his first 5 years if he's as good as we think. That's about a 50m dollar savings.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 10, 2012 17:00:46 GMT -5
If Hamilton isn't brought back, I could see us trading Ells to Texas. Elvis Andrus anyone?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 10, 2012 17:15:45 GMT -5
If Hamilton isn't brought back, I could see us trading Ells to Texas. Elvis Andrus anyone? Boy would Elvis look good at short!!
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 10, 2012 17:23:29 GMT -5
If Hamilton isn't brought back, I could see us trading Ells to Texas. Elvis Andrus anyone? Boy would Elvis look good at short!! Amazing glove/arm, only 24 years old and his offensive numbers are trending up. I'd lock him up long-term.
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Post by curiousle on Sept 10, 2012 22:23:10 GMT -5
I love Ells as well (Arm is weak though). However, it's very clear that a little lanscaping won't don't it, a 'full tear down reno' is probably what's needed. As much as it kills me to table the idea, I think Ben is going to have to be very creative and maybe put a package together with Ells and Pedroia to get depth of what the organization needs most-starting pitching and quality starting pitching.....I had envioned a year ago an Ellsbury to San Fran for Matt Cain trade (boy would that have looked good now)....San Fran has some quality talent in Center and mid infield....but those two players could anchor a strong Bay area team for quite a while...and would appeal to both players I think. I love Pedroia as well, but I have to believe he'll want out when it becomes abundantly clear that this is a 3 to 4 year commitment to contend again. To have 3 quality starters that can win 15-20 is key for the organization-and those are rare...it's gonna cost you....Hey just look at the mess we're in here in Toronto (lack of quality starting pitching)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 10, 2012 22:35:43 GMT -5
I don't see the point of trading Pedroia. He's only 28 and he's locked up through 2015. Getting pitching doesn't mean anything when you don't have anyone left who can hit.
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Post by curiousle on Sept 10, 2012 22:44:13 GMT -5
You mean we can't bring back Denny Doyle for a year until we have a replacement? (tongue firmly in cheek)....
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 11, 2012 6:54:55 GMT -5
It has surprised (shocked is a better word) me that there are even a couple of folks advocating moving Pedey. There are few untouchables on our 25, 40, or in this system.....but for me he is one.
Before the Punto trade, I had two positional players on the 25 I considered that.......Pedroia and AGon. Our surprise opportunity by LA made moving AGon understandable. We need to build this team up as fast as possible around somebody.....and to me Dustin Pedroia is that player. Middlebrooks and a few of the youngsters should not go anywhere either.
I'd only move Jon Lester if say he and Ellsbury could net us King Felix. Otherwise, I like the young arms we picked up. I'm also hopeful our once in a generation draft position will allow us to select a top college starter.
Trade Dustin Pedroia? You have to be kidding!
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 11, 2012 7:38:12 GMT -5
Sign him, trade him....or let him go. This is a tough one to determine from the perspective of what is best for the Sox. The team is probably a few years away and already in re-construct mode. Ells is not 'young, young' and will want the typical Boras long term contract. We are now more reluctant to give those. He has had one great year and a couple of pretty good, but far lesser ones. He has never come across as the rah, rah I'm all for the Red Sox guy either so we aren't getting any discount.
I don't see us trading him over the winter unless we get an overwhelming offer perhaps by sweetening the package (unlikely). So, I think we keep him and hope that he starts well next year. If that happens, I would try to trade him (contender) to bring something of value in return. Andrus would be ideal
If we let him go, I could see the MFY taking a shot in free agency. They have Granderson and Cano about to command big money contracts, have been concerned about too much reliance on the home run, and profess to want to get below the magic 189 Mil. Letting Granderson walk and replacing him with Ells might help address those issues.
In any case, I do not see Ellsbury with the about-to-be new look Sox beyond next season.
Pedroia goes no-where. He is younger than Ells and his attitude and play epitomize what we want on the team.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 11, 2012 7:55:46 GMT -5
If we let him go, I could see the MFY taking a shot in free agency. They have Granderson and Cano about to command big money contracts, have been concerned about too much reliance on the home run, and profess to want to get below the magic 189 Mil. Letting Granderson walk and replacing him with Ells might help address those issues. Ellsbury would help make their lineup more dynamic and less reliant on the home run, but his pricetag isn't likely to be less than Granderson's unless Jacoby gets injured again next year. Grandy has only had a batting average over .250 and an OBP over .330 once in the last four years, and he is two and a half years older than Ellbury. HIs defense has also been declining, and I'd be surprised if he's not a couple years away from moving to a corner. I don't see Granderson getting $100M on the open market. Also, like you said, Cano is about to make huge money. In 2014, they'll have Sabathia/Teixeira/A-Rod/Cano making over $100M between the four of them (unless something crazy happens and they let Cano go, but I really don't see that). That's going to make paying another player in the $15-$20M range - while staying below the soft cap - a real adventure. That's not to say that they won't sign Ellsbury, of course. Ellsbury could get hurt again and indeed be a low-cost option. Or, he could come back with a big year in '13, and they could very well decide to turn around and say "screw you" to the cap, especially if they don't win the next couple of years.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 11, 2012 13:48:11 GMT -5
I I had envioned a year ago an Ellsbury to San Fran for Matt Cain trade (boy would that have looked good now Before this year wasn't Cain basically a .500 pitcher? If I had a team and I needed a CF, I am not sure I would give up A calibre talent (or prospect) for Ellsbury, especially knowing it was a one year rental plus a draft pick when he leaves after the 2013 season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 11, 2012 17:00:09 GMT -5
If I had a team and I needed a CF, I am not sure I would give up A calibre talent (or prospect) for Ellsbury, especially knowing it was a one year rental plus a draft pick when he leaves after the 2013 season. Wait, someone is actually considering what's in it for the other team in a potential Red Sox trade? No one pinch me, I don't want to wake up from this beautiful dream. I honestly have no idea how to value Ellsbury. He's sandwiched an MVP-calibre campaign between (essentially) two lost seasons. What do you do with that? I guess you hope someone waaaaay overpays and make life easy for you, but that's not really a plan.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 11, 2012 17:12:28 GMT -5
I don't see the point of trading Pedroia. He's only 28 and he's locked up through 2015. Getting pitching doesn't mean anything when you don't have anyone left who can hit.That's all based on the assumption that the Red Sox are contenders in 2013/14. If you're not making that assumption, trading Pedroia makes an awful lot of sense. This might be a good topic for another thread.
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Post by curiousle on Sept 11, 2012 20:34:23 GMT -5
1). It's abundantly clear that we cannot reload for next season and 2014 is a question mark-remember, will players want to come here and compete given what's go on....I think this will take time 2). If 1 is valid then I think you shop Ells to see what you can get-and weigh it against draft picks (no slam that works). 3). Pedroia is the leader-no question-If I'm him, I want to play for championships now and I don't want to wait until 2015-it will take that long-I don't think he likes losing and he may not want to stay-consider the fact that he may want out....he's been hitting the cover off the ball and it's not making a difference.....
I didn't want to turn this into a Peddy thread-but you may have to pkg with Ells and/or Lester to keep builidng high (aa/aaa) talent that can go with WMB, X-Man and hopefully Brentz..Lavarnway, etc.
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Post by mainesox on Sept 11, 2012 21:10:37 GMT -5
1). It's abundantly clear that we cannot reload for next season How is that abundantly clear?
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Post by curiousle on Sept 11, 2012 21:34:04 GMT -5
Tell you what, let's check back in 1 year from now-and we'll see how clear it is....you're going to have to have a lot of pieces in motion..plus a new manager...our biggest issue is starting pitching (and I don't see a quick fix there) So I can't see a reload....
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Post by mainesox on Sept 11, 2012 23:17:35 GMT -5
Looking back a year from now at whether or not they chose to reloaded, and/or whether or not the reload has worked out is a completely separate issue from whether or not a reload is possible.
The pieces are absolutely out there for them to put a team capable of winning the division on the field next year, and they have the resources to do it, the question is whether or not they decide that that is the best strategy.
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