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WHERE can Ellsbury End Up?
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 12, 2012 7:18:20 GMT -5
I would hope they built the team back up with a stronger foundation than go for any quick fix. It CAN be done next year, but I would hate to see them give out 3-year contracts for guys that are on the down side just to get them to sign on the dotted line.
I'm very excited for the crop we have being ready for 2014. 2013 could go either way, but I hope Ben builds this organization so we never have another season like this one.
I'm fine with a lot of 1-year contracts (maybe with an option) for next year, but want to see the young talent not blocked.
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Post by buffs4444 on Sept 12, 2012 18:07:00 GMT -5
Ellsbury can and should end up right here, signed long term. He's going to be overpaid over the life of the contract, of course, as is most every player who reaches his contract years. The balance is to continue to supplement the roster with young talent who produce at levels much greater than their salary.
I have to go pluck the grays from my head at those who are justifying this team continuing to bleed talent in the name of saving a dollar, or those who truly believe this team should tear everything down and stock the roster with prospects making the minimum. This is an entertainment product, guys. There is no way ownership will make either of those moves when this team has a viable core that simply needs to be retooled in order to compete for a championship next year. I love following these kids coming up as much as anyone, but Fenway would be half empty every night if this turns into PawSox north.
I'm sure there are scouts in Arizona and Texas evaluating the cost/value of acquiring potential OF's, just as there are scouts in LA and Chicago evaluating pitchers, and other scouts in other cities doing similar evaluations. This team will retool and compete next year, and Jacoby Ellsbury should be a damn big part of that plan in the absence of an overwhelming deal that puts this team in a better position to win both next year and for the long haul.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 12, 2012 21:35:37 GMT -5
I have to go pluck the grays from my head at those who are justifying this team continuing to bleed talent in the name of saving a dollar. There's a legitimate debate on Ells - since you can't guarantee the Sox are able to or should outbid, say, the Yankees - they would be bleeding talent and getting minimal return. Trading him could and should result in getting real talent back. Of course a departure either way would open the door to overpaying for another talent - say, Greinke. Creativity is called for this offseason, and we only have so many appealing chips on the table.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2012 21:49:08 GMT -5
Don't be so sure the Yankess will continue to spend as they have-- even Steinbrenner seems to have dialed it down after the new CBA was passed. The Yankees will have $74.2m per year earmarked for Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Sabathia alone for each of the next four years, and Cano and Granderson are free agents after 2013 as well. Maybe they pursue Ellsbury in lieu of Granderson, but very far from a slam dunk that they target him at all. Granted, any number of other teams may offer him a crazy contract, but this isn't a situation where we should just concede that Ellsbury is as good as gone after 2013.
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Post by jdb on Sept 13, 2012 7:34:28 GMT -5
Buffs
I agree that we haven't become a small market team. Getting rid of bad contracts in Beckett and Crawford didn't turn us into the Rays or Royals but I don't see us offering Ellsburry what Boras wants. Ells will be over 30 when his new contract starts and has an injured past. Granted the injuries are more flukes but he still missed tons of time. He might not get Crawford money but it will be close to it.
I dont know how its going to be done but we will be competing next year. We might not be serious WS contenders but the WC isnt out of the question IF Ells gets near his healthy norms, Pedroia stays healthy and Lester and Buch get back to normal and pitch like top end guys. I dont think the FA market is awful for what we need. Solid starters on 2-3 year deals. Marcum, Edwin Jackson (Pitt was his only multi year offer) and McCarthy shouldnt break the bank and put up decent numbers. Hopefully Lackey can get back to the glory days of 2010. ERA 4ish and 200 innings and we have Doubront and Rubby to fill out the 5th spot with upside.
The lineup has to many variables to try and attempt to guess what will happen on any board besides the trade proposal forum. Maybe Napoli sees Fenway as a good place for a pillow contract to regain his value? I think we will be okay in LF (Kalish,Sands, other) and Ross seems to want to stay. Given the scarcity of quality SS that might be the hardest place to upgrade. Im not seeing much that says Iglesias will be starting come April. Drew on a one year deal? Keep Aviles? Who knows but the hot stove is going to be fun this offseason.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 13, 2012 11:30:27 GMT -5
He'll end up with the Yankees.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 13, 2012 16:33:57 GMT -5
I dont know how its going to be done but we will be competing next year. We might not be serious WS contenders but the WC isnt out of the question IF Ells gets near his healthy norms, Pedroia stays healthy and Lester and Buch get back to normal and pitch like top end guys. I dont think the FA market is awful for what we need. Solid starters on 2-3 year deals. Marcum, Edwin Jackson (Pitt was his only multi year offer) and McCarthy shouldnt break the bank and put up decent numbers. Hopefully Lackey can get back to the glory days of 2010. ERA 4ish and 200 innings and we have Doubront and Rubby to fill out the 5th spot with upside. Any time that your plans for contending are predicated on everyone playing at the top of their range, that means you're not actually contending. Because Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia aren't all going to have great seasons next year. It doesn't work that way. It never works that way.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 14, 2012 10:31:01 GMT -5
Any time that your plans for contending are predicated on everyone playing at the top of their range, that means you're not actually contending. Because Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia aren't all going to have great seasons next year. It doesn't work that way. It never works that way. Shows how much you know. In no way was this season's success predicated on shenanigans like that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 14, 2012 12:17:09 GMT -5
A better approach to the question is simply to ask who can afford to pay him what he wants. When you do that, you end up with a very short list, and it probably doesn't include the Dodgers or the Angels. So who's on the list, please? Boras can ask for whatever he wants, but who's going to pay? That's the only relevant question, right?
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Post by remember04 on Sept 14, 2012 13:23:10 GMT -5
A better approach to the question is simply to ask who can afford to pay him what he wants. When you do that, you end up with a very short list, and it probably doesn't include the Dodgers or the Angels. So who's on the list, please? Boras can ask for whatever he wants, but who's going to pay? That's the only relevant question, right? I agree somewhat but the main questions are 1. What is he going to get? and 2. Will he be worth it over the duration of that contract? A slightly injury prone CF whose game mostly relies on speed who has had one great year and will be 30 at contracts start. Somebody will look at the flukey nature of his injuries and see that as being in his past or worse yet see that for a reason he hasn't had more great seasons and will pay him at least 15 mil a year and he's not the kind of player you give that kind of money to. Towards the beginning of that contract he should be close to being worth it but towards the end, not even close.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 14, 2012 13:23:23 GMT -5
Any time that your plans for contending are predicated on everyone playing at the top of their range, that means you're not actually contending. Because Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia aren't all going to have great seasons next year. It doesn't work that way. It never works that way. Yes, what you are saying is true, but usually teams have a couple of guys that they did not expect much from , who have break out performances or who over produce. It has not evened out for us this year, but despite all the injuries and sub par performances, we have some players that have over delivered.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2012 13:48:38 GMT -5
A better approach to the question is simply to ask who can afford to pay him what he wants. When you do that, you end up with a very short list, and it probably doesn't include the Dodgers or the Angels. So who's on the list, please? Boras can ask for whatever he wants, but who's going to pay? That's the only relevant question, right? This is actually the question I was asking Norm. There are many of the usual suitors probably not interested, and his actual dollar figure will scare some more off also. A team I had not considered when I started this thread was the Yankees. With the new CBA restrictions I still think it would be difficult. But, they may be able to be creative and forget Granderson and go after Ellsbury. I always thought LA was the best bet....either the Angels or Dodgers, but the way the season unraveled neither look at all possible. This is why I could see Ells coming back to us.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 14, 2012 17:26:02 GMT -5
The reason the Dodgers are probably not in the running, is the salary overhang they'll have. With nearly $150 million owed to just 10 players in 2013, that doesn't leave much to fill the remaining roster spots. Now it's hard to see beyond next year, but the likelihood is they'll be up in that range in 2014 as well. The idea that they can take on another, say, $13-$15 million, doesn't make much sense unless they're willing to ignore the draft. And the Angels aren't exactly lightweights in the salary department either. Given the penalty structure that's been put in place, it doesn't make much sense, anymore, to shell out 8%, 10%, or even more of your salary to one player at the drop of a hat. Teams will have to think this through.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2012 17:33:44 GMT -5
The reason the Dodgers are probably not in the running, is the salary overhang they'll have. With nearly $150 million owed to just 10 players in 2013, that doesn't leave much to fill the remaining roster spots. Now it's hard to see beyond next year, but the likelihood is they'll be up in that range in 2014 as well. The idea that they can take on another, say, $13-$15 million, doesn't make much sense unless they're willing to ignore the draft. And the Angels aren't exactly lightweights in the salary department either. Given the penalty structure that's been put in place, it doesn't make much sense, anymore, to shell out 8%, 10%, or even more of your salary to one player at the drop of a hat. Teams will have to think this through. My thing about the LA clubs is that Ellsbury is almost definitely not wanting to move off center field and the Dodgers already have a complete outfield and Kemp in center....no room. And I can't imagine the Angels moving wonder boy from center. Every time I watch Trout I get so envious!
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Post by jdb on Sept 14, 2012 17:46:46 GMT -5
Not to mention Eithier is set to make 85 million over 5 years, Craword over 100 million and Kemp 140 over 7.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 14, 2012 18:48:40 GMT -5
A better approach to the question is simply to ask who can afford to pay him what he wants. When you do that, you end up with a very short list, and it probably doesn't include the Dodgers or the Angels. So who's on the list, please? Boras can ask for whatever he wants, but who's going to pay? That's the only relevant question, right? Do you? www.ranyontheroyals.com/2012/08/money-comes-in-excuses-go-out.htmlThe Brewers had $200m to give to Braun. The Reds had $200m to give to Votto. The Rockies had $200 million to give to Tulo... we've got to get out of this mindset that only Boston and New York and LA have money to spend. Those teams are seeing their payroll tamped down by the luxury tax-- but everyone else has way more money than they ever have before, and that trend is only going to continue. Now, that doesn't mean they're necessarily about to spend that money on Ellsbury. But there's a lot of teams that could-- and it only takes one.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 14, 2012 18:59:33 GMT -5
But the Redsox are one of the only teams that can give $150M+ over 7 years. Brauns two deals combine for $150 over 13, Votto is 225/10, Tulo is $157 over 10 all vs. Gonzalez at $154/7, Tex 180/8, and A-rod 275/10.
There are plenty of teams that can go $150 over 10 years, or $200 over 13, but very few that can/will go $150/7 or $200/10. Now I don't think it would be a great idea for the Sox to give him $20M/year based on 1 MVP year and other injury riddled seasons, but I think they will given how depleted their roster is getting
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 14, 2012 19:04:46 GMT -5
Not to mention Eithier is set to make 85 million over 5 years, Craword over 100 million and Kemp 140 over 7. When I do the calculations for 2013, I have them at over $184 million, and that's without replacing Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Brandon League or Randy Choate - all of whose contracts are up in 2012. Now add in the very real need to extend A. J. Ellis, who's been quite valuable to the team. He's only making $490K and I'd get him roped in as soon as possible if I were in Magic's shoes (though you couldn't find me if I was). You see where I'm going with this. Do the same thing for the Angels and you probably come up with some very similar numbers. That takes two of the very biggest players out of the loop. The Cubs might be a player, but that depends on their agenda going forward. They have so many holes to fill that a big-name centerfielder might not be in the cards. Other places? I think every team is going to be watching their dollars very closely. even the Yankees. There are lots of TV dollars floating around, but the cap will cause teams to bring real focus to how those dollars are spent. Throwing that much money at a player is going to be very questionable going forward. I think we'll look back on the salary dump the Sox just did as one of the wisest moves they could have made in this environment, despite the pain of losing one of the best hitters they had and watching the rest of the season go down the drain. I think the team will go all Belichick on Boras with a reasonable - but firm - take it or leave it offer. Ellsbury may just end up having to take it.
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