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Post by telson13 on Aug 7, 2022 10:32:04 GMT -5
That puts it in a pretty stark light that the final piece of the puzzle for him is managing the strike zone. With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 6, 2022 12:15:51 GMT -5
Of the major North American sports, baseball is the one where one transcendent talent impacts winning the least. Soto is also a very good player but, unless he dramatically improves his defense, looks more like a perennial All-Star than the best player in the league. As such, feels to me like this thread is 18 months too early if we need it at all. I’d be much more interested in the analogous Ohtani thread. It's a really interesting comparison. Soto is barely at the age where most players make it to MLB, and his calling card tools are the most likely to improve over the next 6-7 years (hit tool and power) historically, but not necessarily. I think he's low-risk to be an under-4 WAR player given his toolset, and there's a significant (20-40% chance?) his wOBA improves with a typical IsoP increase in his late-20s and his BAs are 20-30 points higher, and he's a perennial 7-8 guy. Albert Pujols without the defensive value. Rickey Henderson without the wheels. You're right, that's not transcendent like Trout (or like Ohtani seems he might be for several years). What's the longest Mookie ever really sustained his time over that line? Ohtani seems a higher bust risk (another TJ and loss of his pitching value makes him a very good DH, and his dependence on power>hit is a cliff risk), but probably the only other player in baseball right now with a good (again, 20-40% maybe) chance of capably taking on the Trout mantle of "undisputed best player" for the better part of a decade. If the Sox locked up Devers, and it looked like Mayer was more likely star than starter or stopgap, I'd far prefer Ohtani to Soto. I think the added risk is worth the massive marketing value and the possibility of historical significance...the sort of player who defines a franchise era and shapes its future. I see Soto as the conservative play, Ohtani the boom-bust gamble with better-than-hoped odds and a monster win payoff.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 6, 2022 11:52:10 GMT -5
I tend to want to see the team build a more even roster with more emphasis on a solid rotation and pen. It’s always sexy to sign or trade for big names, but once a team gets a player like Machado you tend to forget about them. Also mega teams haven’t been proven yet to win. The 2001 Mariners won a 116 games after losing Arod, Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson. The 2007 team was boring but professional and won. If we need another Soto type player to pair with Devers, then why not see what Atlanta wants for Acuna. After signing Olson and Riley to long term deals, They may have to deal Acuna at some point. 2004 with Schilling, Pedro, Manny and Foulke were pretty close to a "mega team." They were some of the more expensive players on the market for their positions at that time. Their value over-performers were Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek and David Ortiz. True. And that's not necessarily always a negative if a team is developing and retaining its own talent on the high end (or trading and signing as with Pedro). It makes no sense to pursue Acuna, or anyone else for that matter, in trade if they can shed salary elsewhere. The excess value on a contract like Acuna's (not to mention length and his injury history) would require an absurd talent pay-out, effectively gutting the depth in young talent that would allow the team to rotate in inexpensive players or trade for need. I understand and generally agree with peoples' reticence on big contracts, and there is *always* catastrophe risk, but Soto gets most of his value from his superb hit tool...and at 23 that's far less likely to decline than essentially any other tool. If anything, it's the one most likely to remain stable or even improve (although we can probably expect more power from Soto in 3-6 years). Soto also seems ideally suited for Fenway, and would benefit immensely from some better hitters around him. He's having a down year in production with underlying metrics largely unchanged.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 18, 2022 19:51:49 GMT -5
Reminds of the time, many years ago, when the Pittsburgh Penguins had Pierre Creamer as their coach and at the deadline traded for Paul Coffey. At the next game, a fan had a sign that said "We've got Coffey and Creamer, now let's get the Cup" I never decided if that guy was really clever or if all of us who didn't think of it are just dumb. Genius. Sometimes people just elevate all of humanity with their actions. Those are the real heroes.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 11, 2022 19:15:09 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Apr 23, 2022 8:49:49 GMT -5
Binelas »…He’s a gold glove CFer, GG SS, he makes every play on the field look routine, and it’s like some balls that…you know… average OFer can’t even get to…you know…double in the gap…he’s camped underneath it to catch this ball…it’s such fun watching him play…” I won’t rest till he’s ranked in the Top 10 way ahead of Gilberto Jimenez 😅 He's always had that "X factor" in the way that Pedroia, Pedro, and Mookie did coming up. That supreme self-confidence and sense of eventual success, the knowledge that they *will* succeed. Used to being the underdog, the little guy, and flipping it to their advantage. He's a long way from being a superstar/HOFer, but a bunch of us saw that video of his LLWS beaning and I think we knew back then that he had that rarest of skills...the ability to frame failure as opportunity for subsequent success, and to hunt the next challenge. I like Gilberto a lot as a player, I think he's eventually an above-average CF with LD pop. But nobody in the system...and that includes Casas and Mayer...seems nearly as likely as Cedanne to reach his 95th %ile outcome. What that is I'm excited to find out, because aside from the low walk rate (and the superior defensive ability, which is saying something), he sure looks similar to Mookie development-wise so far.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 23, 2022 8:28:31 GMT -5
Somewhat unrelated, but I thought of it because of TB's organizational style. The Sox have Casas (don't lie...part of you thinks he might become Joey Votto with more power...look at their minor league BB/K rates and spray charts and you'd have a reason to be optimistic) knocking on the door, along with potentially Bello closer to the AS break (I figure late May promotion to AAA if he keeps this up, mid-July if he's successful in AAA, say a 3.5 or less FIP/xFIP). Duran belongs in MLB, although I'd love to see him continue to rack up walks in AAA and develop a more well-rounded offensive approach, LDs and selective power with legit OBPs.
I've been down on Downs since prior to the trade, so I think he's cooked as far as morphing into a major contributor. But I still think he becomes a useful bench piece, and he's only 23 still, so he may figure out a way to eliminate some of the holes in his swing. Seabold, Hernandez, even Groome and Hamilton look like they could make a push. And Brandon Walter comes across as a finished product to me, in that I wonder how much more he really has to show in the minors. He deserves aggressive promotion until he faces a challenge (hint: I think that's MLB, and I wonder if it's not until the league adjusts to him...meaning he comes in HOT). That's a lot of TB-style roster turnover and potentially significant roster savings. It also portends some trades. They need some star-level starting pitching at the MLB level right now, and more consistency with the bats, but this is a really deep organization at the upper levels, to say nothing of the multitude of flier arms.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 23, 2022 7:59:23 GMT -5
In fairness, Artax's death was iconically traumatic. Might be too soon for references. Not sure 40 yr is enough.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 17, 2022 20:17:13 GMT -5
SSS but starting to look more and more like Rafaela is a top 10 guy in the system (maybe higher?). Reviews of his defense are intoxicating and the start with the bat is unreal. Remarkably well-put.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 17, 2022 20:13:46 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. I remember when he kinda burst on the scene in the DSL and had a number of us raising eyebrows. Tough to project a guy who's 5'8" and maybe 160 lbs hitting well in MLB, but I remember a low-A breakout 20-y/o who had a few of us raising eyebrows too. Gruesomely unfair comp but guys like that, or Altuve or Jose Ramirez do pop up from time to time, and it's nice to dream. I will say, Rafaela has a certain "second-nature" feel to him that reminds me of breakout Mookie. Otherworldly neural network or something to that effect. Seems like he's at least a good shot to be Brockstar 2.0. It's especially encouraging that this power burst is in high-A (although I'd be even more impressed if it were Salem high-A) at just age 21. FWIW I like Jimenez a lot too, and I think he's maybe too good a hitter for his own good, contact-wise. If he were selectively rather than globally aggressive, I think he'd be showing more power just by virtue of better-quality contact (and forcing pitchers into hitters' counts). He's got the build and twitch to approach 55-60 raw and 50+ game, if he just used more hips/legs and didn't rely so much on quick hands. But he's also new enough at it that there's plenty of room for growth.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 15, 2022 19:01:34 GMT -5
I understand the points forever9 and julyanmorley are making and, in fact, was already aware of them. Before I posted, I thought I recalled reading that an all-replacement level team would win about 48 games. I searched and found this article, which seems to confirm that: www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-winsIt says, "A replacement-level team, rather, is projected to post a .294 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162-game season, this team would win 47.628 games. Thus, for every single WAR above this, a team should be worth WAR + 47.628." So, getting to 90 wins at $8M per would get your payroll to $336 million (42 x $8M). If I understand julyanmorley's post, it says the same thing. Getting to 81 wins requires a 33-WAR roster. You get 48 for being replacement level and need another 33. I'm also aware that the high-end cost per WAR that gets quoted is for FAs. The lesson I take from that is that it's best to avoid big FA contracts when you can. They are an inefficient and super high-risk way to add talent. If you feel your team in nearly complete, but you just need another piece or two to go on a run that could bring one or more titles, then go ahead and overpay. Three years of paying David Price to pitch in LA is painful, but he was integral to the 2018 championship, so I'm Ok with it.There's also the issue of downside risk. The question the thread poses is whether we would pay Raffy $300 million for nine years. That's $33.3 million/year. If his career were to go the way of, let's say, Nomar's, the RS would have a massive sunk cost on their hands. Nomie put up 2.4 WAR from his age 30 to 33 seasons. Starting a nine-year Raffy contract now (in other words buying out his last two arb years) would take him through his age 33 season. Mo Vaughn is another example. Mo put up 3.6 WAR in his age 31 to 33 seasons while drawing checks from the Angels. I'll grant you that Mo's lifestyle probably didn't help. The VIP lounge at the Foxy Lady and buffet restaurants aren't known as great training facilities. He let himself go when it came to conditioning. Nomar and Mo are probably extreme examples of guys who fell of a cliff. But I think we all agree that the second halves of these massive contracts are usually disasters. In general, I'm extremely wary of massive long-term contracts, as I guess you can tell. But they have to spend their money on somebody. They can't realistically get up to a $230 million payroll on $7-10 million/year deals. And a really good team needs a few great players, which you can't just count on getting solely from cost-controlled guys. Even if it is not maximally efficient from a WAR perspective, it still makes sense to sign the occasional expensive long-term deal.
Of course those deals can go sideways so you want to be smart about it. So what are the best bets? Well, if the player in question still has two years of control you ought to get him at a discount relative to FA prices. And if he's 25 you're at less risk of decline. In short, if you're ever going to give a player a $300 million contract - and you should occasionally want to do that - Devers is the guy to give it to.
Exactly. Pay for rarity (superstars), cost certainty (long-term deals for young guys who project as regulars or stars), and on short-term deals where you like the risk/reward ratio (Eovaldi). Unless a team has literally no minor league system, there are always going to be savings on 4-7 or so spots where guys are making league minimum to roughly $2M. I get the FA calculators, but they're just that: Free Agency calculators. FA has always been a player-friendly venue. That's why it exists. But I think FA is unfairly maligned/makes people heedlessly nervous because there are so many bad contracts handed out as a product of poor team decisions. A smart FO will make intelligent risk analyses and (see Trevor Story) add the right players. Those contracts do carry substantial risk, but they can be incredibly smart in the right context. The key is player development and shrewd peripheral talent assessment (Kiké...love that guy) provide the cost savings elsewhere. It just means being more vigilant about wasteful spending.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 15, 2022 18:40:56 GMT -5
Eh at those prices listed the only one I'd say would be Devers. I love eovaldi but I'm not giving him a 4 year deal with his injury history. Xander I hate to say it the writing is on the wall with Story signing. JD has been great here but I don't want anymore long term high dollar DHs. Maybe Hernandez if he replicates last year, I don't think that'd be a crazy offer looking at what Chris Taylor got. Vazquez if he'd sign that deal would be a good deal but doubt he would. I know ZIPS likes Kiké to stay a bargain in the 3-4 WAR range. These guys think he's been very unlucky and is due to hit for more power: fantasy.fangraphs.com/whos-been-unlucky-the-hitters-2/ . I'd definitely take that deal on him if he produces at the upper end of that range this year. Even if he declines slightly faster than anticipated with age, his versatility is really valuable...even as a 2-2.5 WAR player you could argue he'd be worth more than his contract. I'd actually prefer a 5/70, if he'd do it. It would lower the salary cap hit, give him a bit more security and overall value, and I think he's still be a useful player at 35 if not a pretty good one. Raffy...whew. I really didn't know what to do with him when I first thought about it. He's looking more and more like he might become a regular .280-.300/.380/.600+ guy, at least for a solid stretch. Dude's still SO young. I think he's maybe even worth $32M AAV at 34 on his current career arc; when he came up at 20 and performed as he did, I saw an analysis on fangraphs that used roughly his performance criteria and historical comps and pegged it at around a 1 in 7 shot at the HOF. I'd say it's closer to 1 in 3 or 2 in 5 now, and that's a guy you keep. But boy, they better have some pitching in development because that's a substantial chunk of salary. Then again, that's exactly the type of player you pay. On the other hand...he's going to have to be Papi-esque (which he certainly could do) or channel Mo Vaughn if his defense declines at all before 30, and that seems pretty likely. Still, his .280/40/120 or so annually and maybe .320/45/145 career year (I'm intentionally being what I'd consider conservative there, too...he's got 5 years of prime left to do it) is huge in the middle of the lineup. I really wanna see Bogey back, but only if it's mutually reasonable, and I think at this point the two sides are too far apart on what each needs from the other. Gonna bum me out if he goes. Such a classy guy and an excellent, consistent player.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 15, 2022 18:11:47 GMT -5
I might be bullish on Winckowski relative to most. I know I always had him as a lock on the 40 man for rule 5 protection I think he’s a backend starting pitcher who will be capable of logging innings. ERA probably in the 4’s, K rate probably even a little below average for a starter. But he will throw a lot of strikes, gets a lot of ground balls, and compete. I know in relief stints he was getting it up to 99 in the AFL. He wasn’t throwing strikes but that usually isn’t an issue for him. I’d imagine he could at least be a setup guy He's maintained his velocity bump for a while; idk how good his SL/hard curve ends up being or if he can mask his pitches better out of his hand, but this seems pretty reasonable to me. He's not young for his level, but he's far from old for it. I don't see why he wouldn't "learn to pitch" like most guys do in their mid-late 20s. I think he's probably just settling into how to use the new velo, let alone sequence or incorporate some deception. Guys who sit 94-95 as starters and at least have one plus pitch (SL) are usually at least viable later-innings relievers. With the stamina to start and a decent CH, I don't see why he couldn't be a useful 4/5 or even a '21-version Whitlock.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2022 19:42:54 GMT -5
Have bit my tongue on this, but FG's tool grades this year made absolutely no sense fairly often and were pretty disappointing. For example, Binelas' writeup says he has plus-plus raw power while the tool grade section gives him 50/50 present/future raw. Wilkelman Gonzalez's writeup talks about his plus curveball that is absent from his tool grades entirely. Jimenez and Bleis are described as having plus speed; the former has a 70 (double-plus) and the latter a 50 (average). Mata described as having a plus slider that in the box above has 45/45 grades. Etc. Etc. Casas absolutely has 70 raw and I'd project him for 60 in-game if not better. His power versus Dalbec's is a fun debate and I'd pay to see them slug it out in an old-school HR derby. I may sound like a blowhard when I say our scouting reports are the best in the biz for this system, but if you want to go to a different site, you can find better than the "tool grade" sections on Fangraphs' reports this year. I've noticed this as well, for a number of players I follow both within and outside the system. I might put it down to the multiple inputs (4 people vs. 1 or 2 previously), but it's also not updated frequently or completely enough over time, despite their adopting a "continuous update" approach from what I understand. The overall FV grades are often changed but not the tool grades that comprise them. I agree that there's no evidence showing Dalbec as having better raw power...they're both approaching the top of the scale. You don't hit a 477-ft HR like Casas did without a stupidly high EV, unless you've got a microburst tailwind. Idk if I could find that EV somewhere, but it would have to be in the 115-118 mph range at a minimum I'd imagine (again, barring a ferocious tailwind). The big difference between the two has always been in likelihood to convert raw to game power, with Casas having the big edge. Dalbec seems to be learning to hit and might over-perform his 30-35 typical range, but I don't see him as being a regular .270-.280 guy. Seems more likely to settle in Khris Davis country at .247 (although I do think his improving selective aggression gives him a good chance at least). Casas strikes me as a guy who could approach Judge country at his 90th %ile outcome (actual Judge performance probably more like a 97th %ile outcome), and I wouldn't be surprised at all by a career peak of 2-4 years near .300 with 40/40 2b/HR. I think he probably lands around 3.5-5.5 WAR pretty regularly in his prime, depending on his defense at 1b.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2022 19:18:30 GMT -5
And we have a winner. When he hits bombs it'll be "House of Pain."
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Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2022 20:47:46 GMT -5
That changeup looks like a screwball. He should have no problem with RHB. He's got some armside run on his fastball too. If I had to guess, it looks like he has a high spin rates. The only strange thing to see was the wild velocity fluctuations. Maybe 2- and 4- seam? Or a cutter? I agree about the change, the arm side break is wild, especially from that vantage point.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2022 13:55:37 GMT -5
Obviously we all dream of our beloved red sox prospects reach or shattering their ceilings as players but one thing I'd love to see out of Duran this year is improvement in his defense. He might easily be a platoon/4th outfielder but if he can field his position(s) better he could be a very valuable role player at that. Especially on this team down the stretch. Agreed. I'd love to see him put it all together, but if he improved his CF defense to 55-60 level (I know that's going to take a lot of work) he'd be guaranteed a 10-year career a la Dave Roberts. His speed is great but he's an outstanding baserunner too. He has the situational awareness.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2022 13:47:02 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Honestly, idk that Verdugo is ever going to be a real "first-division starter/borderline AS" but he's at least a league-average player with some room to grow. I'm more hopeful for Dalbec, who I think has some over .900 OPS seasons. But with Kiké (who had, by far, his best xwOBA last year and put up nearly 4 fWAR while being unlucky with HR/FB rate), Martinez, Dalbec, Bogey, Raffy, and Story they've got a pretty reasonable shot at having six 25-HR hitters.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2022 13:37:07 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. I think that's actually a good comp, both stylistically and emotionally. Feels similar. Not all that different from JBJ's first several years either. His hot streaks were borderline obscene. I think Dalbec has a lot of space to get more consistent (as in, I think he's shown some adaptability and is likely to get to roughly Khris Davis production. I'd love to see him play multiple positions too. The 2b thing is both bizarre and remarkably intriguing.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 31, 2022 19:36:14 GMT -5
I'm 50% putting Bobby D at 2nd is the dumbest thing I ever heard and 50% wow I really want to see how good he might look there, I'm intrigued. I had the same exact reaction, half disgusted by the idea and half intrigued. And appropriate response to the "Hanley-in-LF or Brian Dozier?" Dichotomy.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 31, 2022 19:32:21 GMT -5
Listen, Duran obviously wasn't a success in MLB last year, and should be open to instruction on improvement. But I hate when players get jerked around or keep tinkering. Beni going from lithe to buff and then back while losing his speed and swing in the process, Swihart's position. Just gives me some bad vibes. I think where Duran may have gotten jerked around was by whoever tried to turn him into a power hitter. Not everyone is the same and shouldn't be put into a cookie cutter approach. I agree with Cora here. Duran has elite elite speed which isn't taken advantage of by jogging around the bases after a homerun and especially not when trotting back to the dugout after a strikeout. Players should maximize their talents and minimize their deficiencies not the other way around. I feel like there can be a happy medium with Duran. I think maybe he or others focused on HR power/LA too much last year and not just hitting the ball hard where it's pitched. This seems to be the aim here in what Cora's saying and I think it's harkening back to Duran's early pro style but maybe with the wrinkle that he can learn to hunt pitches to drive. If he's hitting a lot of liners he's not a true-talent .480 BABIP guy (lol Salem) but he could be a .330-.350 true talent BABIP. Duran is far from a finished product as a hitter. Bogey, Raffy, JDM...they all struggled at least some figuring out how to put it together. I think the big thing is him making the adjustment to focus simply on hard contact, not hard contact in the air (or even better, learn to do it situationally)...we'll see how adaptable he is.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 31, 2022 19:17:10 GMT -5
With his barrel and hard hit percentages, if he even lowers his strikeouts to around 27-29%, he's a well above average hitter. It's crazy how much potential he has, all he needs is to either cut down on his whiffs or just become more disciplined. Yeah, if he does keep it just below 30% by a few points, his OPS "only" sits right around 1.000 ... check and see how many batters hit that mark last year. This is absurd and that's why I like it. He still has a few years before his "typical" power peak at 27-29, but also he's got a few years to learn what Bogey did: selective aggression. Seems like just seeking pitches to drive early and adjusting his approach to shorten up with two strikes...idk. That's not an unreasonable lift for a guy, who's still well short of the Ted Williams "1000 PA and you know who he is" mark, to reduce his O-swing by 3% and up his Z-swing to 73-75%. His whiff rate jumps when he's 1-1 so he's better off hunting strikes early (Z up) and being selective later (O down). Been trending that way anyway. Dalbec brought his hard hit rate up over 8% in the course of the year in 2021. Seems like he's just plain learning to hit. If he does, even in the marginal (45) hit tool area...zoinks. As soon as he makes pitchers scared to throw that first strike, he's going to get in hitter's counts really quickly. Peak Khris Davis (their careers are oddly similar statistically to this point aside from the ludicrous K rate difference) or slightly better, plus some defensive value/versatility is where I'd put his O/U. That's good cake. If he gets down to Davis's 26.7% K rate and can beat his 8.6% BB rate (say, 11-13% area), he's treading superstar country.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 21, 2021 18:20:36 GMT -5
Yeah, this isn't an impressive look for him. I also get the impression his self-perception and reality don't really jibe. I much prefer the extra pick next year...this is a red flag to me. Best of luck to him, in a lot of ways he's understandably disappointed. I just don't see him as really fitting in with the current Red Sox organizational philosophy/direction. This looks like manufacturing boogeymen to assuage one's pride, done in a really generically immature and unimaginative way.
I'd be concerned that he wouldn't be adaptable enough or really able/willing to adjust to and cope with adversity...particularly if this is what he thinks adversity is. Try making $3000 a month at 25 coming off career-threatening injury and a down year, hoping to get back to MLB but blocked by All-Stars, with a new wife and a kid on the way.
Edit: Eh, on second watch I'm not sure I'd even take that away from it. Kinda seems like he's just bummed it didn't work out and he's just saying something to have something to say. Still think he made a really poor decision financially but I'm walking back how much I think this reveals about his character.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 15, 2021 17:10:07 GMT -5
This is true, but at some point (and we are not there so don’t say I’m trashing him… but the moment will arrive) you handcuff yourself by *not* locking up your core stars. For example, if X and Devers leave, to replace them they will have to drop big change on someone… who might end up being Pablo 2.0. Bloom hasn’t *had* to make a big deal yet because he is still in the keep-salary-down stage. But those choices will come. Well, we'll get there when we get there. I tend to have more faith that he's not going to do something really dumb. There will always be things that no one sees coming like falling apart at age 28 or a career ending injury at age 30. Out of curiosity, what do you think of the Crawford deal. It's in that category for me I think. Kind of like Joey Belle and his hip necrosis (steroids are a potential cause/accelerator). I thought Crawford's deal was excessive, but not to the point where it was upsetting. I looked at his tendencies and figured hitting in Fenway would help him take his game up a level. He should've been Boggs-ing the Wall, hitting .330 rather than .300, racking up xbh. Instead he completely imploded under pressure and was forever a shadow of his borderline HOF-track younger self. Thing is, looking back I don't know if it was insufficient due diligence, or simply a switch that went off in Crawford's head once the pressure was on. I'm not sure how much you could ever really know that sort of thing. I've been in enough life-and-death situations where I've seen people you'd expect to fold absolutely shine, and others where those you'd put complete faith in simply unravel. Sometimes crappy stuff happens. Hell, on a smaller contract with less pressure, Crawford might've been awesome.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 15, 2021 16:57:08 GMT -5
How about a re-poll after the season? Maybe with a step between "Phenomenal" and "Good"...that's where I'm sitting. I wonder if the "Terrible" voter is willing to identify himself That's where I'm at too, somewhere between Phenomenal and Good. Maybe Excellent or Great should be an option. I don't have blind faith in him but I really like what he's done even if I don't always agree with him, and I like what I think it is that he has in mind for the future as well. I can't shake the feeling that 2021 is kind of a happy accident where things kind of just happened to break more right than wrong, one where he hedges his bets to the utmost, but without doing anything to sacrifice his long-term vision, which is what I think he's geared toward, building something sustainable and to do that he needs to get the farm system where he wants it, and I bet he feels like it's improving but not where he wants it to be and probably needs 2 - 3 more years to get to where he really wants it. I thought I heard somewhere that Bloom was not interested in the Mets job in the past because the expectation was instant results and that he wanted Boston because they were willing to be patient with the way he wanted to build things. Maybe it was the Michael Kay show I heard that? Same. Although I'd bump his grade up. I agree it's a "happy accident" but that's also a product of moves like bringing in Kiké aka Victorino 2.0. I think he's done a phenomenal job constructing the team, my only issues being the Mookie trade (be real nice to have Patino right now; Downs was meh even then) and selling low on Benintendi. But, he's got a good eye for talent and Schwarber was genius. I think Bloom is the rare individual with a clear vision for the team and how to construct it (vs. the sort of wholesale "buy stars" approach of a guy like Dombrowski). That's a huge long-term boon. I think the Sox are set up to be outstanding for much of this decade, and Bloom is where that starts. I don't expect perfection, I'm fine with moves I dislike as long as they're rational and there's consideration for both short- and long-term consequences.
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