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Post by digit on May 3, 2017 9:50:57 GMT -5
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Post by digit on May 2, 2017 14:27:08 GMT -5
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Post by digit on May 1, 2017 19:30:33 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 29, 2017 11:04:18 GMT -5
Well of -course- NE trades down for a TE and another pick.
KC tweet: We traded TE James O’Shaughnessy & the 216th pick to the Patriots and acquired the 183rd pick from New England in return.
And of course:
Mike Loyko tweet: James O'Shaughnessy had the most Special Teams tackles of any Tight End in the NFL last season. Adds more roster value..
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Post by digit on Apr 29, 2017 10:01:26 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 29, 2017 9:57:10 GMT -5
I think they'd go for a LBer, a TE, and a DB now, but one thing I've learned over the years is that when you expect the obvious, Belichick doesn't.
I actually expect some sort of special-team standout, too, with most of their developmental prospects being taken as UDFAs and being viewed as less 'poachable' off practice squads.
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Post by digit on Apr 28, 2017 12:09:05 GMT -5
Adam Shaheen is gonna be interesting to see where he'll go.
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Post by digit on Apr 28, 2017 9:42:16 GMT -5
Who are the players they can least afford to lose at this point? Brady maybe isn't even on the list. I'd have to think this thru better but spitballing: Solder/Cannon, losing one of them would be a huge blow. Only thing that can stop this offense is a shaky offensive line. Team proved last year it can lose Gronk. The running back core is deep. And if you lose Cooks or Edelman you can handle it. Hightower: can deal for a few games but he's a necessity for the post season. Flowers: can deal with the other lineman but he'd hurt. McCourty- I feel like he makes the secondary work. Anyone else you can make a strong argument you have a capable back up. Those are also the positions the Patriots are pretty well positioned to pick up in the draft today, so I think we should come out of the draft with at least some solid 'development' talent who can handle backup duty. Still want Sidney Jones and Jake Butt, though.
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Post by digit on Apr 28, 2017 8:25:02 GMT -5
Rather surprised the Browns didn't take a QB, but then again, the QBs in this draft seem like 'solid' rather than 'franchise', and they can take their swing at it next year when there are better. Build a team around the QB first here is probably a good idea.
Any thoughts on the 'Sherman wants to be a Patriot' rumors?
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Post by digit on Apr 27, 2017 11:41:55 GMT -5
Yea if you want to use a median average to support your argument sure. But like you said there is a range and he was projected in the 5th and he went a round before that. You can't use the middle of the range when projecting a guy's availability if you are the team that actually wants to get the player. Lombardi actually referenced that in his discussion of how the Patriots draft:
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Post by digit on Apr 27, 2017 10:16:28 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 27, 2017 8:56:04 GMT -5
Wasn't even 'range'... that guy would've been 'overdrafted' and KC should've traded down. Except they didn't. They took the guy 'too early'. Good thing for KC they did, since NE was waiting to 'overdraft' too.
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Post by digit on Apr 27, 2017 8:12:31 GMT -5
For some reason I expected to be hearing Smart being 'the worst player in the series', but yeah, Crowder hasn't been playing well.
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Post by digit on Apr 27, 2017 8:07:42 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 26, 2017 13:01:10 GMT -5
So you think, in this example, that teams actually had Grissom that high and BB knew/suspected this and that's why he took him? I just think the draft evaluators (some of them, anyway) are better at their jobs than that. I actually think it's more that BB doesn't care about the opportunity cost than it is him knowing that team boards are so drastically different than what we fans read. I just think he sets his board and takes players when they come up and if they are available (if there are multiple guys that he'd like and he can pick more capital, then he makes a trade). No, just citing the possibilities. Sometimes you forego taking the most obvious pick because you're certain he won't go in that short a range knowing who else has been sniffing around your 'preferred pick'. It's a lot, lot more difficult to project with a much larger range between picks, and -then- you can just go pick who you like. But with that short a range between picks, it seems like there's a lot more projectibility in deciding who you can pick. A mere three picks in between? You can probably project pretty well. But otherwise, yeah, I think he's more likely to just go with who's best on the board.
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Post by digit on Apr 26, 2017 12:40:23 GMT -5
Not necessarily. The problem with that is that it assumes 'likely draft spot' is the correct valuation.
The problem is, likely draft spots fluctuates depending on other teams' needs -and- evaluations as well, and a lot of later-round evaluations are going to be more prone to fluctuation because at that point, you have very different projections from various teams in play here instead of 'groupthink'.
Bill Belichick, I'm presuming, has a better handle on how other teams evaluate those players -because- he has connections among the college coaches who can presumably tell him how 'interested' other teams are and roughly where they feel they're going. If they feel that there was -one- team that was likely going to target Flowers in the third round, then that team -would- have to be in between where NE picks in the third and where they pick in the fourth. If that team's not among the THREE teams picking in that area, but a team that -is- likely to pick Grissom is in between... then why take Flowers when you can get him in the fourth?
There's far, far too much at play to say with absolute certainity that you could have gotten better value.
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Post by digit on Apr 26, 2017 8:16:17 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 25, 2017 16:45:43 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 25, 2017 15:40:34 GMT -5
It frustrates me at times too but they have a system and it works and it has nothing to do with what's in the draft magazines. There are guys with first round grades that they wouldn't even take in the 7th round. That's how I make myself feel better anyways and the results are the results. There's something to be said about just -grabbing- the guy you actually like than spend time dillydallying trying to find a 'safe range' to trade down to in the middle of a draft and risking either losing valuable time you could be doing something else during the draft, or risk someone grabbing your player when you've traded down. The stupidity of wringing about trading down and such is that a) you have to identify the range you can get your player, b) you have to find a trade partner, and c) you have a ticking clock that's your enemy in playing out your draft. Great idea in theory, but seriously, you'd have to be working on such a trade for a while as part of a contigency in advance, without knowing exactly who's there on board when it's your turn to pick, and sometimes some trades don't go through because a player ISN'T there for the other team to trade into. If you have the conviction that's the player you want, you get him. Screw draftniks and trying to 'sort out the value of the pick'. Ultimately, in the end, a pick is a lottery ticket you get to cash in on a player, not currency, so you'd better grab your guy instead of being caught offguard with no pick because a trade you were working on fell apart.
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Post by digit on Apr 25, 2017 15:24:05 GMT -5
The Pats currently have 65 players under contract. That means they have 25 slots open for draftees and free agents. Bill always seems to find a couple of gems there. I think this weekend will be fairly quiet, as he's made most of his moves already. Feels more like the calm before the storm... Willie McGinest talks about the draft here: www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802418/article/patriots-nfl-draft-strategy-make-the-most-of-every-selection
A large part of what factors into assessing the NE Patriots draft, I think, is that Belichick simply follows his board, rather than other people's boards, and drives draftniks crazy, because of things like 'hidden yardage'.
If they cluster into a similar range, he trades into the range he feels he can still get one of those players. Otherwise, he just goes ahead and picks whatever is highest on his board, regardless of what others think. I believe when asked about this once, Belichick cited Jimmy Johnson in saying to just get the players you like.
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Post by digit on Apr 25, 2017 10:12:11 GMT -5
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Post by digit on Apr 24, 2017 15:05:35 GMT -5
And to address why they could decline it sooner, that's the practical reason for them yes, but the flip side is, by keeping it till the last minute, they force the Patriots to wait instead of doing other moves. (Which seems pretty weaksauce, considering the Patriots have much, much more cap room to play with.)
At least Adrian Peterson is headed to the Saints so he's no longer an option. If he ever was.
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Post by digit on Apr 24, 2017 15:00:54 GMT -5
Point is moot, he's a Patriot.
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Post by digit on Apr 24, 2017 14:56:08 GMT -5
Right now there isn't a pressing reason to get it off the books. Last year there was, I think, in that they had other players to sign. That's the basic difference between this year and last.
Although if Buffalo really wanted the player, there's no real practical reason to wait till the last minute, it seems like it would antagonize the player.
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Post by digit on Apr 24, 2017 14:13:11 GMT -5
There's really no practical reason why they can't wait till the last minute. I was rather surprised the Bills decided so quickly with Hogan... I think last year they must have -really- needed the cap space. This year there's no rush, I guess, so they'll go down to the wire, and maybe delay NE making other moves.
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