SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 19, 2024 13:31:28 GMT -5
He’s having quite the year so far at AAA.15 Ks and 1 BB in 6 2/3.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 3, 2024 13:09:36 GMT -5
Time to send Dalbec down call up Remy Gonzalez. SSS and all. Travis Shaw was 0/19 with 7 strikeouts in his second (and last) go around in Boston. Dalbec is now 0/6 with 5 strikeouts. If Dalbec continues striking out anywhere close to this rate, IMO, he will not get to Shaw’s 19 ABs whether Refsnyder is ready or not. Either Dalbec or Jacques will get a DFA, and one of the AAA not currently on the 40-man may get an opportunity like Romy (again assuming Refsnyder is not ready). I don’t think we’ll see too much of Dalbec this year. In fairness 3 PAs were against a guy (Kirby) that he should not be starting against with a healthy Devers. I think we’ll probably only see him get around 15 PAs in the next ten games (two starts vs Detmers, two starts against Irvin and Anderson.. two soft tossing LHPs, and maybe a couple of pinch hitting opportunities)
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 1, 2024 22:37:37 GMT -5
Sox starters: 27Ks to 1BB 5 GS. 28 IP. 37 Ks. 1 BB. 2 HBP. Before tonight: 2nd in ERA- 1st in FPI- 2nd in xFIP 2nd in SIERA 2nd in K-BB% 2nd in fWAR 1st in OAA 1st in RAA 2nd in fangraphs defensive WAR
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Mar 31, 2024 16:55:03 GMT -5
Sox starters: 27Ks to 1BB
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Mar 30, 2024 22:40:47 GMT -5
Our pitching has been nails so far Starters through three games: 16IP 11H 3ER BB 19K No wonder Montgomery didn't want to come here -- he would've been in the bullpen! 17 IP if my math’s right
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Mar 1, 2024 10:25:03 GMT -5
This is fine as a minor league flier, but is Cron really an upgrade over Dalbec at this point in the given role? You’re looking for a backup 1B who can hit lefties. Over the last two years, (134 PAs for Dalbec, 266 PAs for Cron), Dalbec had a .755 and .859 OPS in 22/23 vs .695 and .747 OPS for Cron against lefties. Cron has a track record of success in this league, which Dalbec can’t really say, but given all the other factors, I’d stick with Dalbec. Probably worth mentioning that by measures such as xwOBA and xSLG, Cron has hit fastballs well in recent years. So whatever rotations they are going against early in the year may play an impact on this competition
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Dec 29, 2023 19:02:25 GMT -5
I’m been very dismissive of Giolito because he’s been mediocre for two years - with historically horrific HR rates last year - and would prefer someone you don’t have to “fix,” but that’s not an unreasonable deal. Hopefully the Green Monster is high enough… HRs per baseball savant 2023: 41 vs 29 expected at Fenway Career: 166 vs 123 expected at Fenway I think the Sox are expecting a lot of his HRs vs. LHB to be long outs at Fenway
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 6, 2023 16:02:34 GMT -5
Are there any good sports writers in Boston. Tomase sucks. All they do is complain. Big experts. Mike Reiss is probably tops for the big 4 sports (imo) There ain’t a lot of good ones Thanks for starting this thread. I’ve been tuning out Sox news and basically relying on this site for years. As great as it is, it’s great to have some other sources as well to supplement.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 31, 2023 9:30:26 GMT -5
The amount of Devers slander is comical, there was a ginormous devers thread where most people were in mourning cause they thought he would leave in free agency. 92nd percentile in xwOBA for the year
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 29, 2023 14:44:37 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jul 24, 2023 21:14:59 GMT -5
Give me Lance Lynn ( his crazy high HR/FB is due for a regression) with some cash consideration for salary cap purposes..surprisingly the Red Sox aren’t one of the 10 teams on his non-trade list. I’ll also take a slick fielding middle infielder who bats left like Nicky Lopez and call it a day In addition to being a solid fielder, Lopez doesn’t strike out (which the team has been prioritizing) and likes to poke the ball to left (as opposed to a guy who tries to pull the ball in the air to maximize his power)
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on May 19, 2023 16:04:22 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 26, 2023 13:03:16 GMT -5
I'm into comps for some reason, I know they don't mean a whole lot and aren't really indicative of who a player really is, but I love them. So I've been trying really hard to come up with a fair comp for Yoshi. I think he's gonna be a good sign for the Sox and a bargain financially. So the comp I came up with is this: Tell me if this is accurate. Masataka Yoshida = Ted Williams Blasphemy! I’ve been on the Yoshi train since day one. Honestly I was considering this ridiculous comp too. But Yoshida looks more like a great BB%/elite K% hitter with some power. Whereas Williams was more of an otherworldly BB%/great K%/elite power guy.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 16, 2023 18:14:08 GMT -5
Happy to be at .500. let's see if they can go on a run. More bats need to heat up. I think one of Yoshi/Casas will eventually adjust ..hopefully both. Then add in Duvall and Story/Mondesi and we are starting look a bit better. Yoshi has twice as many walks as Ks. I’m no feel like he’s adjusting. But yeah I have faith they’ll both start hitting better
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 13, 2023 12:15:01 GMT -5
Why? So he should never be able to rest his best player at all because the rest of the lineup is so lame? Who saddled him with that roster that has few good options in it if there are injuries or you best player doesnt play 162 games? I dont think Cora was the one who created that roster. Want to blame Cora for the lack of fundamentals shown thus far, fine, but his roster is both depleted and very mediocre. Sometimes what makes flawed players flawed players is an inconsistency of the fundamentals. Having to teach baseball at the MLB level is like hiring someone into your Big 5 firm and having to teach them addition and subtraction... Maybe my addition is off but I think it’s still the Big 4. Unless this analogy takes place in the 90s. And I think you’d be surprised at some of their math skills. I’ll shut up about accounting now.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Dec 2, 2022 17:08:45 GMT -5
He murdered down the stretch for the dodgers, those numbers are perty You ain't kidding. In the second half he had 39 Ks to 1 BB (1 HBP). .7 fWAR after 9/1. Basically abandoned his curve and slider. He locates his fastball very well. Good chance a RHB doesn't go deep on him at home next year.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Apr 16, 2022 0:45:02 GMT -5
Giving Barnes that extension must be Chaim worst move to date right? Beni, IMHO. But Barnes looks to be a close second. I can never understand the Barnes hate. He might not fit your definition of elite or closer or whatever. But,here are his percentile rankings for his last five complete seasons in the big leagues: xwOBA/xERA 2016 39 2017 84 2018 88 2019 88 (2020 26 2021 98 He strikes out a ton of dudes, doesn't allow much hard contact and has done so often while being leaned on a little too heavily/facing tough lineups/etc. It's possible he might be on the decline since he can't hit 97 with the same FB spin, but before this last appearance in 2022: he faced 7 batters, allowed 1 hit and no walks while getting 6 outs and 2 by way of K. Not bad.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Dec 4, 2021 1:38:44 GMT -5
I know after last year it seems like JBJ is toast, but is he toast or was he injured? He had one left wrist injury in August 2020, had minor wrist surgery [but on the other wrist?] right after the season ended, and the right wrist bothered him late in Spring Training 2021. [It's hard to find info about this on the web] He also had plantar fasciitis in 2021. So basically at different times it hurt when he would swing or run. I know he's older, but is there a reason to believe 2021 is the real JBJ, or is he the guy he was 2018-2020? Aug. 18, 2020 -- "Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. was held out of Monday’s lineup with a sore left wrist, manager Ron Roenicke said. Bradley Jr. rolled his wrist during Boston’s road series against the Rays earlier this month. While trying to make a diving catch, his glove caught on the turf and flipped his wrist back." www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/08/red-sox-injuries-jackie-bradley-jr-wrist-christian-vazquez-heel-out-of-lineup-andrew-benintendi-rib-cage-will-be-out-a-while.htmlApril 4th, 2021 "Bradley had to race to Opening Day with Milwaukee after signing early in Spring Training, then missed time in the final full week of camp with a sore right wrist. He connected the setback to a previously unreported surgery for a ganglion cyst in his wrist two days after the end of the 2020 season, and was able to get back in the Brewers’ lineup during their final weekend in Arizona to log some at-bats.” www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-hits-first-brewers-homerSeptember 20th, 2021 "Bradley has recently been dealing with plantar fasciitis, inflammation of a thick band of tissue along the bottom of the foot that causes a searing sensation while, say, running around in center field. Bradley tested his ability to run the bases early Monday afternoon before starting the series opener against the Cardinals for the Brewers, who were already short of outfielders with Lorenzo Cain coming back from a right groin issue and Tyrone Taylor on the injured list rehabbing an oblique strain. “They said he’s in a lot of pain, and yet he’s playing today,” hitting coach Andy Haines said. “That shows you right there what he’s about. That means a lot to a lot of people in there [in the clubhouse]. The fact he’s struggling, and he’s hurting, how easy would it be for him to back off? But no, it’s, ‘I’m playing.’ "https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-dealing-with-foot-injury-for-brewers I don't think enough people are paying attention to that. The guy played through plantar fasciitis (which sounds awful) because the team had a depleted OF. His xwOBA and ability to drive the ball hard or to LF fell off a cliff from the middle of July - on (his GB numbers are interesting). I think there's a pretty good shot the team can get good defense and average offense against RHP between him and Duran/FA pickup/etc. Per Baseball Savant, JBJ would've had 3 more dingers at Fenway last year.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Dec 2, 2021 2:04:45 GMT -5
I like it if we sign Schwarber! Bloom sounded sincere in wanting to re-sign Schwarber, because his production (HR, BB, attitude...), the only way was to trade Renfroe. 1) Verdugo to RF 2) Schwarber to LF 3) Hernandez to 2B 4) JBJ to CF This also adds Schwarber and JBJ as LHH to the batting order, and it improves the defense. JBJ will not be in the lineup against left handed pitchers as Hernandez will be in CF against LHPs. This trade makes sense if the next move is re-signing Schwarber. The Red Sox sold high on Renfroe and bought low on JBJ (buying prospects in the process). - Agreed with all of this except Hernandez to CF.
- JBJ as a 4OF means that they can add a big bat almost anywhere in the OF/right side of IF.
I'd like to see Iggy sign for a cheap 1+ club option to help man 2B/SS, serve as a defensive replacement/ pinch runner/ rare PH appearance if a contact oriented RHB makes sense and they don't want to burn the backup C.
- I'm also in on Schwarber. But I've got a feeling that he signs for more guaranteed $ than the Sox are comfortable with and sign a Brad Miller type guy (xwOBA over last 3 years of .377 puts him in top 100 over that span). Suzuki is a good fit too. I bet FSG would like to promote him.
- Then scour for bullpen arms. Assemble a solid pen for the next few years.
- My money is on the Sox winning 85-90 games but not getting too far next year due to the strength of the division.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Aug 4, 2021 11:29:25 GMT -5
Its weird to me everyone is worried about Schwarber when the most obvious problem is Pérez and Richards. Cora as well actually. They’ve both been hammered for like a month plus. Cora keeps leaving them in way too long, bringing them back out for another inning where they inevitably give up at least one run after getting out of a jam the previous inning where they clearly lost it. This happens basically every Richards start. Yeah the offense is in a funk but they’ll snap put of it. As near as I can tell, Perez' only real problem is that he's been giving up the dingers lately (29% HR/FB rate in his last 6 starts). Is that due to mechanical or fatigue issues or is it just bad luck that's primed for regression? Though hmm, he also has a career high Hard Hit%.
Richards, meanwhile, has not looked like a major league pitcher since the sticky stuff crackdown.
I'm just looking at Perez' stats quickly, but it looks like it might be a problem with his cutter location. Year BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV Whiff% PutAway%2021 .352 .330 .598 .564 .439 .432 90.6 13.6 22.5 2020 .172 .233 .266 .342 .236 .290 85 18.2 18.8 2019 .214 .205 .343 .311 .269 .260 84.4 22.6 20.3
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 21, 2021 12:56:16 GMT -5
I could've sworn at some point we had a thread to pimp site stuff, but now is as good a time as any to have a thread for the podcast. That's because this morning, we released our 200th episode (or at least the one numbered 200 - it's kind of like comic books where some weren't numbered but whatever, close enough). Our guest was Chaim Bloom. As I'm sure you can understand, we're quite proud of this one. We talked with Chaim, who hasn't really done much of this kind of thing that I'm aware of, for a solid hour. The conversation touched on a lot of different topics and if you post here, I'm sure you'll enjoy it! You can listen in at the link below or wherever you listen to podcasts. news.soxprospects.com/2021/01/podcast-ep-200-interview-with-red-sox.htmlYou guys landed Bloom?? I continue to be amazed at the quality content you guys put out despite relying fairly heavily on guys doing this just for the love of it and not having anywhere near the resources of bigger operations or sites that are much more financially motivated. Thank you! I'm making a (admittedly very tiny) monthly donation to you guys and hopefully others will too.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 7, 2021 13:35:43 GMT -5
Money aside, can you blame him? Not "money aside." Every year is another year a pitcher can blow his arm out. The reason to go back is if the market is depressed and you're not getting the money you are worth. I believe he was referencing the events that took place yesterday without turning this into a political discussion.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 6, 2021 17:39:27 GMT -5
The autopsy done right. Not having followed all that closely, this story really cleared it up for me. Three things immediately came to mind: - I had not realized how deeply Schilling's misadventure had poisoned the well, and $78 million in debt is a lot of poison.
- There was, as you state, a sincere effort to keep the team in Pawtucket, one that actually put more on the line from ownership than many similar ventures.
- If we lose all of the outstanding local news sources like the Journal, we will be much poorer for it.
This one had me rethinking some of my knee-jerk assumptions about community involvement in funding this sort of thing. Assigning half the naming rights to Pawtucket and the assessment on premium tickets were a good faith gesture in the proposed agreement that would have kept them there - along with the pile of cash they were throwing in. Most impressive was the Worcester city manager, Augustus. He obviously had a plan for a taxable district around the park that would bring business and revenue in, and he pursued the team relentlessly once he saw there was an opening. The writer deserves enormous credit for surfacing the story, if only to inform Rhode Islanders about what went down politically and financially. A great read. Great story. Some observations: 1) If it had been Matt Damon and Ben Affleck who were video game fanatics and lost $78M of the state's money, how strongly would people have connected that fiasco to a new baseball stadium proposal? That Schilling was a baseball player strongly connected the two efforts in people's minds, in a completely irrational way. 2) As just said, this screw-up is characteristic of the way things get done now. How much hate did 38 Studios get on talk radio? So now you have a vocal and uninformed populace who oppose a beneficial government action for no rational reason, and politicians who are far, far, far more concerned with winning re-election that doing what is actually right for their constituents. "I can't sell it to my people," everyone told the House Speaker. This is particularly true if you make no effort. (It's true that the PawSox ownership did a poor job of doing so, as well.)
3) Asks House Speaker, "Why put a bill on the floor that the public and my colleagues didn’t want? Why would you do that?” Translation: why would we want a vote on record as to who supported and opposed the bill, so that those who opposed it out of sheer cowardice, self-interest, and /or laziness might be held accountable later when it became clear that not passing the bill was a huge mistake? Make no mistake: when it turns out that the new park in Worcester is a huge success, so it's clear that not passing that bill was a colossal cock-up (I like that term!), there will be anger. What there won't be is a single attack ad saying "Joe Rep voted against the bill that would have kept the PawSox in town and revitalized the city center as happened in Worcester." And Joe Rep will take Speaker Mattiello out to dinner.
(This, BTW, is how Mitch McConnell has been running the Senate. But it's not a partisan thing.)
4) Mattiello conducted a poll that asked "Do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium?” That's obviously a leading question, as Lucchino pointed out, since it omits the key context that the new stadium will be profitable. So, why not ask a fair question? Because it's easier not to, and you'll never be held accountable for failing to do it right.
Meanwhile, I have fond memories of Worcester and will be looking forward to attending WooSox games. The science fiction convention / literary conference I helped run was in Worcester from our 4th to 7th years, and Readercon 7, when we convinced the late Ursula K. Le Guin to break a 15-20-year embargo and be our Guest of Honor (which in turn attracted big-name writers from all over the country), may have been the best such get-together ever. Our Program Guides for these cons featured a 3-part "Welcome to Woostah" by ace hard sf writer and former Worcester journalist Allen Steele. I just re-read them, and I think I'll repost the first installment at the appropriate time in the appropriate place!
I honestly only skimmed the article and plan on reading it in full tonight, but nowhere does it show how a new stadium would be profitable in RI, correct? It mentions that the team was willing to share profits, but it doesn't define what the team meant exactly by "profit, nor does that prove that it would be profitable. Is Lucchino just referencing Andrew Zimbalist's work? Because he was a paid consultant and this is worth mentioning: "After the announcement by the city and the team Friday of their signing a letter of intent to build a stadium in the Canal District, WBJ sent copies of the financing details to 10 economists and stadium experts around the nation to gauge whether Worcester’s claims over the stadium development paying for itself – without the need for current tax dollars – would come true. Of those experts, the only one who spoke positively about the deal was the Smith College professor who was hired by the city to judge the economic viability of the offer to the PawSox. The rest doubted the stadium-pays-for-itself claims would come to fruition" www.wbjournal.com/article/sports-economists-101m-woosox-stadium-deal-unlikely-to-beat-the-odds(obviously the RI and MA deals were different deals, but i'm not sure that the results would be any different if they asked about the RI deal)
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 23, 2020 18:45:13 GMT -5
It's so bizarre that Felix Hernandez signed a minor league deal with the Braves. He's only 33 years old. Remember though, he broke into the majors at 19 and never relinquished his position. He's crossed the 190 IP threshold in the regular season 10 times (200 IP 8X, 230IP 5X). He may only be 33 but thats a lot of mileage on his arm, and from a performance standpoint, a minor league deal comes as no surprise. I wonder if that was part of the issue with Porcello this year. He turned 31 this offseason but already has >2000 major league innings.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Jan 17, 2020 17:55:51 GMT -5
Starts are mostly irrelevant. Quality IP and health in September matter more. I'd take 22 starts, 150 quality IP and a healthy Sale in September. Ditto foe Price. Problem is that those 50-70 regular season IP NOT pitched by Sale (or Price... or both) are not going to get this team into playoff contention come September. A solid year from Eovaldi and Erod will help and a good year from Porcello would have given the team a decent chance for the playoffs. I don't see it. Unless Bloom catches lightening in a bottle with several pitchers this team is going to watch the post season on TV. More and more the 2020 Red Sox remind me of "your Father's Red Sox". I am girding myself to be in complete denial if Mookie is dealt or not signed. Not since Fisk signed with the White Sox or Nomar was traded have I felt such foreboding. Then again, the Sox won the WS the year Nomar was shipped out so what the heck do I know.And how many of us would've put money on the 2013 Sox? You never know.
|
|
|