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Post by brendan98 on Mar 25, 2024 21:20:11 GMT -5
I’ve always been an optimist when it comes to the Red Sox, but I really like this team. I like the young hungry players. I like the athleticism. I like the improved defense. I think there is reason for hope with the rotation. My biggest concern, depth in the rotation (so very happy about the addition of Anderson).
I’m not going to predict a record, but I like this team in the AL East more than the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays. My prediction is 2nd in the AL East behind the Orioles, and a Wild Card playoff berth.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 20, 2024 9:43:29 GMT -5
With Grissom and Refsnyder out for a while, and Rafaela showing every sign that he is ready, I think the Sox should keep him up to start the season. Based upon his performance they can always send him down when one or both of Grissom and Refsnyder come back. If he is too valuable to send down at that point, I do not view that as a negative, and would agree with what others have said, get that long term extension sooner rather than later.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 19, 2024 11:30:05 GMT -5
Saw quite a few tweets that the Giants and Sox were in similar places this offseason and that the Giants had the offseason that the Red Sox should have had.
I wasn't about to get into a twitter/X argument (that is always a losing proposition), however other than last years standings, I do not think these clubs were similar at all.
The Giants had next to nothing with regards to young, highly thought of players on the MLB roster and very little in the minor league pipeline that would suggest big contributions from homegrown players in the next couple of years. To their credit, they went out and spent money to make their roster better because they had no other way to get better.
The Red Sox, on the other hand were/are loaded with young, highly touted players, with a stellar crop of prospects in both the upper and lower level minors. It is well documented that the vast majority of this young talent are position players and the Sox needed to add pitching, but if the aim was to build out this team with young talent, than even the current pitching staff fits that description. While I am definitely concerned about the starting pitching depth of this team, I am also excited about Houck, Whitlock and Crawford hopefully establishing themselves as solid MLB starters.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 17, 2024 11:36:56 GMT -5
Has anyone heard about any swing adjustments for Connor Wong? He has really cut down and been a lot more direct to the baseball this spring. Looks like whatever he has done is working.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 17, 2024 11:29:34 GMT -5
Grissom hasn’t done anything to lay claim to the second base job in Boston. This is Valdez’ opportunity to grab the spot and never let go. If Valdez excels, it would create a great problem for the Sox.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 16, 2024 12:35:00 GMT -5
I can see the concerns with wilkelmans command. He's all over the place today. Stuff looks pretty good to my non scout eyes though. Based on today, he makes Darwinzon look like Greg Maddux.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 14, 2024 14:20:37 GMT -5
I think an Opening Day roster spot was Wilyer Abreu's to lose this spring, and so far he seems to be doing just that. There is still time for him to turn things around this spring, but if he continues to struggle and Rafaela continues to show improvement, I wonder if the Sox would start the season with Rafaela in the majors and Abreu in AAA? The Refsnyder injury may make it a moot point, but if Abreu doesn't show some sign of figuring things out, he might be better off starting in AAA.
Quick add: Really hoping this post serves as the good old reverse jinx!!
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 7, 2024 15:48:53 GMT -5
If the Sox have indeed decided to go with what they have in the rotation (Pivetta Bello Crawford Houck Whitlock Winchowski) the biggest issue I see is rotation depth, it is inevitable that the 7th, 8th and even 9th starter will be needed and right now those pitchers look to be Criswell, Fitts, Walter. It seems to me adding someone with MLB experience who would start the year in AAA would really help, one guy who might do this that is very intriguing and controversial is Trevor Bauer. I know there are a lot of reasons to stay away from him, but he would be a great fit for the Sox current situation if he'd take a deal where he'd start the year in AAA with an opt out out if he is not on the MLB roster by then end of May or June it would give the Sox time to evaluate the guys they have in the rotation and also to evaluate who Bauer is now (out of the MLB spotlight) as a pitcher and a person.
Add: Jake Odorizzi might be another guy who'd go for a similar type opportunity.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 6, 2024 15:59:53 GMT -5
The Giolito injury sucks. There is no brightside to it, however I am excited to see Crawford, Whitlock and Houck get another extended opportunity to start, if even 2 of them succeed in that role it will be a win for the Red Sox going forward, if all 3 make the most of the opportunity it will change everything for Breslow & Co. moving forward.
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 6, 2024 15:48:17 GMT -5
I'll be attending each of the Sunday games at Hadlock this year. Looking forward to getting a nice close-up look at some of these guys. Hopefully mother nature plays along. Hoping I'll be able to provide some insight or context to box scores. Let me know what you'd like to hear about. Looks like the place to be, at least until those top guys get promoted!
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 3, 2024 21:34:17 GMT -5
Maybe i’m spring training pilled (i definitely am) but i’m more excited than i should be to watch Houck and Whitlock attempt to be starters. Monty would obviously be an upgrade this year (maybe not as much as people think) but one of those guys turning into a real starting pitcher is more valuable for next year and beyond than the upgrade monty would give at his price this year in my opinion. Maybe the pitching dev stuff is overrated and Bailey/Breslow/Willard won’t make as much of a difference, but thinking about going into next year with Bello/Crawford/Whitlock or Houck as established starters allows them to do a ton of creative and expensive things. I’m also probably putting too much stock in spring training performance, but I like the way our pitchers are throwing the ball. I’m getting close to the point where I’d rather just see Breslow give Pivetta an extension over adding Montgomery. What are the chances that the Sox already have 5 or 6 starters who can perform like #3’s or better? I honestly think Pivetta and Bello have a chance to be solid #2’s and I also think Crawford establishes himself as a legit middle of the rotation starter. I do not know what to expect out of Giolito other than being an innings eater, but I do think that he is a guy Breslow and Bailey specifically targeted as an addition because they thought they could get better performance out of him. Whitlock and Houck, it’s an extremely small sample size but, this is the best prepared I’ve seen either of them to take another step and go from multi inning reliever to starting pitcher. If Montgomery goes another week without signing, I’d say he is going to be playing catchup for the first 2 months of the season and don’t think that will go well. I’d welcome bringing in Monty if it’s real soon, but otherwise let’s lockup Pivetta (and Bello too please).
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 29, 2024 14:50:15 GMT -5
The responsible thing to do is to let the legal process play out before rushing to judgement. That said, the situation sounds bad for sure.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 28, 2024 15:11:49 GMT -5
With a 26 man roster, and barring any additions/subtractions from the current group of position players, the Sox will likely use a 4 man bench, if the sure things on the roster are Wong, Devers, Story, Grissom, Casas, Yoshida, Duran, O'Neill, and 1 bench spot filled by a backup catcher, that leaves Reyes, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, and Dalbec, 1 guy doesn't make the 26 man roster unless the Sox decide to go with 12 pitchers (very unlikely). The chances of leaving each off:
Reyes: I'd say less than 10% chance Reyes is out, if he is left off the roster, you risk losing him, and you need Rafaela to be a super utility guy, which he is capable of doing, but goes against what the Sox have stated they see him as (an everyday CF)
Refsnyder: I'd say less than a 10% chance Refsnyder is out, his offense vs LHP is important to this club, and like Reyes he can't be optioned.
So most likely one of Dalbec, Abreu or Rafaela gets sent down, if you don't think Rafaela or Abreu for that matter are ready for MLB than it is an easy decision, if you think they are both ready, it should be Dalbec (until he proves otherwise he is what we know him to be, a good AAAA corner infielder who can help at the MLB level against LHP but doesn't provide much more).
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 24, 2024 0:02:19 GMT -5
LF vs RHP: .296/.349/.491 LF vs LHP: .227/.354/.439 RF vs RHP: .333/.413/.515 RF vs LHP: .308/.428/.400 DH vs RHP: .293/.335/.460 DH vs LHP: .350/.409/.450
Growing up a Sox fan in Maryland I saw a lot of Orioles baseball, I remember Earl Weaver had a pretty strict platoon of Gary Roenicke and John Lowenstein, Roenicke got most of the almost all of the at bats vs LHP and Lowenstein got a majority of the at bats vs RHP. It made 2 somewhat average hitters into 1 pretty good offensive spot in the lineup.
The stats above are 2023 stats for:
LF vs RHP: .296/.349/.491 Duran LF vs LHP: .227/.354/.439 O’Neill RF vs RHP: .333/.413/.515 Abreu RF vs LHP: .308/.428/.400 Refsnyder DH vs RHP: .293/.335/.460 Yoshida DH vs LHP: .350/.409/.450 Dalbec
I realize there are some limited sample sizes, and am certain that some guys won’t put up these numbers with more at bats, but I also think several guys could put up better numbers. I think the infield for the Sox will be pretty set in stone if Grissom is what they hope he is, Rafaela in CF represents an opportunity for this club to show they are committed to helping the pitching staff with some defense, and hopefully Wong gets a 2/3 split at catcher. I strongly believe that Cora should use strong side platoons a lot in the corner OF spots and DH., to maximize the club’s offensive potential.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 23, 2024 13:34:20 GMT -5
Or they could have traded Reyes for Acuna and Urias for Soto and then the OF would be Soto, Acuna, Betts. On second thought they would probably have to throw in a couple of second tier prospects. Tomase is a clown.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 23, 2024 13:22:29 GMT -5
I wasn't super high on Montgomery going into free agency, I viewed him as a solid guy who has been his best the last couple of seasons. He's 31 years old (a negative for a guy looking for a longer deal) however he doesn't have a ton of innings on his arm. I viewed him as a guy who would slot either 3 or 4 in the rotation behind Sale and Bello and possibly Pivetta. With the addition of Giolito, I was even less excited about adding Montgomery, but with the trade of Sale now believe adding Montgomery makes a lot of sense, he'd be a nice add to split up all of the RHP, and could ultimately slot in as an experienced guy who will take the ball and keep the Sox in ballgames. He would likely replace one of Whitlock or Houck in the rotation both of whom are far less likely to take the ball as much as him or keep the Sox in as many games as him. As much as people talk about the Sox having a budget, I feel like they simply do not want to pay drastically more for a player (years and dollars) than they value that player. I'm hoping that, if Montgomery's price (years and dollars) gets closer to what they value him at, that they get it done (even if it is a year and $20M) more than the price they want to pay for him). If I'm the Sox, I'd value Monty at 3 years with a $20M AAV, so if Boras is saying 5-6 and $150-$175, I'm saying he doesn't fit in my budget, but if he would bite at maybe 4 years $100M I think the Sox should go over what they are comfortable with, and despite all the reports I believe they would.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 21, 2024 11:44:53 GMT -5
I feel like the offense can be dynamic, if Grissom is ready to go as a MLB hitter, Duran/Abreu do what they did last year, Casas' 2nd half last year is who he really is, Yoshida's 1st half last year is who he really is, O'Neill and Dalbec can at least be dangerous vs LHP, Rafaela can do enough offensively to feel fine about him in the 9 hole. I believe it will be important for Cora to play matchups more, especially in the outfield/DH spots.
Defensively, if Yoshida's innings in the outfield are mostly replaced by Rafaela, and Story plays a full season at SS the defense will be much improved. Devers can be a little better, but not hoping for much there, hopeful Grissom is athletic enough to be a solid 2B.
As we all know, the rotation is the biggest question mark. If the Sox get 30+ starts from Pivetta, Bello, Giolito and Crawford and they can all be a sub 4.00 ERA or close to it, and one of Houck or Whitlock turns a corner as a starter (I still believe that they might be most effectively used as this is Whitlock/Houck day and we are going to hope that combined they can get through 7 innings every 5th day), or maybe Jordan Montgomery will be a late addition (not counting on it).
The bullpen should be good, especially if the starters are eating innings and they are not over used.
If a lot of the things mentioned above happen, I think this is a playoff team and a really fun team to watch. If not, Breslow will be selling off pieces at the trade deadline, and maybe we will get to see some of the top prospects get their feet wet.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 29, 2024 13:42:52 GMT -5
Was just listening to a discussion on MLB on XM about Sasaki, specifically they were saying that it is rumored that he has an opt out in his contract in Japan where he can come play in MLB next year, but that his contract would be limited to International signing bonus pool and salary of MLB rookie contract because he is under 25 years old. It is very likely that if he was available as a MLB free agent he'd get more money than any pitcher in history, and it would be hard to imagine anybody risking the opportunity to make over $300M.
I am curious however, once a player under 25 is signed, is there any rule that prohibits the team who signs him from working out an extension that basically pays the $300M+ that same year?
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 18, 2024 12:14:20 GMT -5
I am already more high on how this offseason has gone than most on here, but feel like the Sox can make this offseason a big win with 2 signings. If COTS contracts is accurate and the Sox have between $40-$45M to spend under the cap, get a deal with Montgomery done, and sign one of Soler, Hoskins or Turner and I think the Sox will compete for a playoff spot.
I already like the potential for this Red Sox offense, with all of the LH hitters in the lineup they are going to be very good against RHP. I would however, feel much better with another impactful RHH in case Grissom takes some more time getting some traction in the MLB and/or Story is closer to the Boston Red Sox version of Trevor Story than the Colorado Rockies version and/or O'Neill doesn't have the bounceback season we are all hoping for or at least doesn't crush LHP and/or Refsnyder becomes more human vs LHP. If Cora has the ability against a LH starter to bat, a .400 OBP vs LHP Refsnyder leadoff, with Grissom, Story, O'Neill and one of (Turner Soler or Hoskins) along with Devers and Casas, than I think the lineup would be tough on LHP too. With or without another RH bat Cora should play the lefty/righty matchups a lot more this year.
Pitching wise, the rotation needs another horse and a lefty would be ideal...Montgomery makes so much sense. A rotation with Pivetta/Giolito/Montgomery/Bello/Crawford is dependable and though their may not be an ace, I'd argue that all 5 guys could go out on any given night and give you an ace performance. The bullpen has really good depth, and if Martin and Jansen pitch like they did last year and Whitlock and Schreiber bounce back, could be the strength of the team.
Breslow or the front office (whoever you believe is running the show)make these 2 moves, and I think the Sox could potentially have a top 5 offense in baseball, a top 10 rotation, and a top 5 bullpen.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 18, 2024 11:40:43 GMT -5
In regards to pitching, I am still cautiously optimistic that Houck has another gear he can get to that will make him a viable 3/4 starter. If that were to happen they very easily could have a home grown trio of Bello/Crawford/Houck taking the bulk of their starts for the next 3-4 seasons. And this is why they brought in Bailey. Same goes for Whitlock, I don't know if he is a starter, but I do know he can be much better than he has been the last 2 seasons (because we saw it his rookie year). Injuries played a role surely, but he didn't pitch all that great when healthy, and I'll be watching to see if Bailey/Breslow can help him find his way back to the dominance he had in 2021.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 9, 2024 19:01:20 GMT -5
One more time, I did not advocate for Crawford to be the closer, simply stated that I thought he was the most capable in-house arm that we had if Jansen was traded. Obviously if the Sox only add 1 more starting pitcher, and their rotation 1-4 was Pivetta, Giolito, Bello and Additon, I would want Crawford as the 5th starter, however if there are two additions coming and Jansen is traded, I personally think Crawford has the stuff most suitable to be a dominant closer. Not while Houck and Whitlock are still on the roster imo. And both have experience in that role, too. To me, Houck walks too many guys to be a closer and his splits vs LHH's concerns me. Whitlock hasn't been the same guy since his rookie season, in 2022 he was mediocre as a starter but good as a reliever, but last year he was bad as a starter and reliever.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 9, 2024 18:18:56 GMT -5
The more I think about the Sox offseason, the more I personally think that Breslow had a plan and is executing it. I think the Sox probably offered more than they were comfortable with to Yamamoto and I think we all know now that he was almost certainly going to LA all along. I think Breslow wanted to get more RH in the lineup and swapping out Verdugo and adding O'Neill accomplished just that, and netted the Sox a few intriguing pitching prospects. I think Breslow probably felt Giolito's deal was reasonable and was happy to add a pitcher that will give the Sox innings and has substantial upside. Regarding the Sale trade, I'd be interested to know whether the Sox approached Atlanta or if it was the other way around. Regardless, how do you not trade 1 year of an injury prone pitcher that you can't count on to make 20+ starts, for a guy who will likely be your starting 2B and has 6 years of control, and considerable upside. Regarding the trade rumors with Jansen and Yoshida, I do not have a problem with Breslow shopping either, the fact that neither has been traded tells us that he hasn't received a good enough offer, and I think if he makes a trade the Sox will get a very good return (look what he got for Sale) and some payroll room to fill other needs, for player(s) at positions where the Sox likely have in-house replacements. As for those other needs, as of right now they really need 1 or 2 starting pitchers and a RH bat that will DH and either play OF or a corner IF position. I'd argue that at this point in the offseason, every day we get closer to Spring Training or in the case of Imanaga his posting deadline, the more the price drops. There are multiple starting pitchers available still, including 3 that were considered top 10 free agents when the offseason started (Snell, Montgomery and Imanaga) and at least 3 RHH's who I think could fill our needs very well (Turner, Soler and Hoskins), why pay today's price when tomorrow's price will almost certainly be less. Yes, it would be great as fans if the Sox signed 2 starters and a big RH bat tomorrow, but as a GM it makes sense to wait. Of course if Breslow misses out on these guys than he probably made a mistake, but we won't know until more guys start coming off the board.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 9, 2024 17:43:28 GMT -5
Making a SP who put up near 2 WAR last season your closer is a recipe for disaster. 2 WAR SPs don't grow on trees and there's enough upside there that I think it would be foolish to plop him into the closer's role, a role he has no experience with and to which he did not aspire. There are plenty of candidates for closer; I don't think we need one more. One more time, I did not advocate for Crawford to be the closer, simply stated that I thought he was the most capable in-house arm that we had if Jansen was traded. Obviously if the Sox only add 1 more starting pitcher, and their rotation 1-4 was Pivetta, Giolito, Bello and Additon, I would want Crawford as the 5th starter, however if there are two additions coming and Jansen is traded, I personally think Crawford has the stuff most suitable to be a dominant closer.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 9, 2024 13:14:32 GMT -5
Fair I shouldn't have stated this so certainly, it's my assumption one of them would be. It's possible one of the catchers is the emergency 1B, or even Devers with someone sliding to 3rd. Either way, I'm sure they have a plan for if they need someone during a game (if they don't sign Hoskins or Duvall who would fit that role too). I don't think the issue is that they don't have anyone to play there in a pinch. The issue, to me, is that 1st base is a position you should be getting production from, and if you have DH options like Rhys and JT available who can play 1st base, why leave it empty? Why not sign Hoskins or turner? Why have a hole on the roster that is so easily fixed? I agree, Hoskins or Turner make too much sense. I believe the Sox lineup could be among the best with either. Especially like Hoskins.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 8, 2024 12:38:13 GMT -5
I agree with most of this. Additional point: rotation depth is not going to better in 2025, it's going to be worse! If you see Houck, Whitlock and Crawford (+ AAA crop) as pure relievers, then there is ONLY BELLO left as a guaranteed starter atm. This is an overlooked issue IMO. We NEED at least one starter with 4 or 5 years of control or else we have the same problem next year. We are out of the running on Snell and Montgomery IMO, so who is left. Is Imanaga a safe bet? No. But at some point you just have to pick one hill to die on! They have scouted him for a long time, I am optimistic that they know what his is and what he isn't. In short: I don't see a 5 years contract as a negative with Imanaga. At some point you just have to go with your evaluation and make the move. What does Kutter Crawford have to do to be accepted as even the 5th starter? I think it's clear the Red Sox don't see all of Houck, Whitlock AND him (and Fitts, and Perales, and Wikelman) as pure relievers. He was 50th in WAR among all pitchers and that was after only being moved into the rotation in June. My post said "I think Crawford is a capable starter", and then pointed out that it was my belief that he would be the best candidate to be the closer if the Sox traded Jansen. So again, I think Crawford is entirely capable of being the 5th starter, and possibly more than that if he can go deeper in games this year. That does not change the fact that I believe he would be our best in-house candidate to fill the closer role if Jansen is moved. Nothing about my post was a slight on Crawford, exactly opposite in fact.
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