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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2020 18:22:17 GMT -5
In which hundreds of people ask Bill James what he is smoking: While he certainly has baseball numbers down, the epidemiology thing seems to be... out of his league. They gonna play in South Korea?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 20, 2020 19:34:57 GMT -5
That contract might have now cost you Mookie Betts. If Sale pitched like Sale for most of his contract, then he is absolutely worth the value, but he hasn't been and there were red flags before signing the ink. The board was torn the moment he signed it which shows it wasn't an absolute slam dunk that just didn't work out (like the Pedroia deal). I don't think you can make that assumption with Mookie, who was on the record for years about testing FA. The Sox should not run into that problem next year. And if he pitched like Sale for the next 5 years he, again, would be providing major surplus. It is OK to not like the extension, I was OK with it. I think that is in part, against apparent modern baseball orthodoxy, you can overpay and take risks on certain players. Pitchers are different, for sure, and it could turn out to be ugly. But if anyone was worth it, it was Sale.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 20, 2020 16:17:17 GMT -5
Maybe it was best that we traded Mookie. Team would be crap if they play this year. "A Mookie Betts contract extension is too risky!" they said. "Too many years"!, they said. Yeah, great. Please explain to me again how Mookie's salary in 2032 or whatever is such a horrifying liability to so many of you but the Sale contract was totally reasonable a year out of FA and coming off an arm injury. I would like to revisit that argument now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 12, 2020 16:55:11 GMT -5
Lol maybe just give Sale surgery. Now it’s not sounding so bad Maybe just do the CBA renegotiation and inevitable strike/lockout this season while we're at it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 11, 2020 15:02:12 GMT -5
Agree with the conclusion, but I'd note there are even more unknowns than this. Who's to say the fatality rate is accurate? Since we have hardly been testing anybody, some number of people may have died due to "pneumonia," etc., when it was actually the coronavirus. Also since the spread is recent it's reasonable to expect that many of the people who are now counted as merely infected will eventually die. Also once the health system comes under strain, as it likely will, the mortality rate is likely to increase and I don't think we should be confident it won't go above 3%; it's currently about 6% in Italy. What I've heard is that the sub 1% fatality rate only holds until you run out of hospital beds. Once those resources have been outstripped, you get the 5-6% rate they're seeing in Italy. That's why there's so much value in slowing the spread even a little bit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2020 22:16:45 GMT -5
A Walmart store can have 10,000 plus visitors a day. So unless we completely shutdown and quarantine the whole world banning people to sporting events really won’t help much. Odds are pretty good this epidemic won’t amount to much but a giant scare, but is it worth the risk? San Jose Sharks are saying that they may be playing innempty rink as soon as March 19 Yeah, that's... pretty much what we're talking about here.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2020 8:24:54 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2020 7:58:41 GMT -5
Let me get this straight, you are saying that we are freaking out about an actual virus that infects actual people, and then you go on an anti-vax tangent? Please just stop. FYI, putting RNA into cells to get them to make a protein that then gets presented to immune cells to help teach them what to kill in your body does NOT involve altering DNA at all. Moreover, there is no vaccine yet for COVID-19, so we do not know exactly what type of vaccine will be made, but I can tell you that with the speed at which this will be made, it almost has to be with standard vaccine technology (proteins or parts of proteins). The definition of vaccine does not necessarily include the words safe and effective. The link I provided earlier listed all of the vaccines being developed for corona. Most of them are gene injection therapy, which as the other link I posted shows, alters DNA. One of the "features" of this new technology is quickness of development. Putting RNA into cells to replicate is altering DNA. How else does it replicate? The only way that cells replicate is by copying DNA. Go get 12 of them to be safe and continue to trust the people who run the world who thirst for extreme power over people and trillions of dollars. The world is going great thanks to them. All they ever do is tell the truth and have extreme compassion for human life. Hey, without looking it up, can you tell me what each letter in DNA stands for, and give a brief definition of each term?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 9, 2020 19:01:33 GMT -5
What kind of garbage is this? Did the people writing the report all catch Coronavirus?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 5, 2020 15:37:44 GMT -5
Has there ever been a happy ending to stories like this? Eight months of rest, an injection and still having issues, then bounces back not needing surgery? Can someone give me a little hope? Price and Tanaka come to mind.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 5, 2020 15:37:06 GMT -5
I'm not sure its as much of a Rays move (which to me, implies creativity) as much as its a "our SP depth is hideous, we waited out for the potential for a trade that would land Quantrill into March, now we need to take a shot at the best remaining option to field a baseball team" kind of move. I'm saying nothing of Bloom's competence or incompetence by the way. This is just an obvious move that needed to happen and many of targeted to McHugh weeks ago in the pitching depth thread. McHugh probably had more than one team willing to bring him in on an incentive-based deal, and he (or his agent at least) can read a depth chart too. If he wants another crack at starting, the Red Sox are a great place for him to be.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 5, 2020 8:14:32 GMT -5
Well if this doesn’t reinforce the decision to trade mookie instead of hold on to him “for another run” then I’m not sure what does As long as we're playing this game, it also yet again goes to show why a Betts contract isn't particularly risky relative to the other available options. Oh my god, the Betts contract might be bad in five years. Cool, the Sale extension is looking like it could be dead money from day one. Wow, great job avoiding those risky long-term deals.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 3, 2020 15:50:39 GMT -5
This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. Doubles.Betts will take a hit leaving Fenway, but I don't think you can just take his past batted ball profile and project it forward unchanged. Betts didn't just happen to have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway, it was an intentional thing.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2020 21:41:56 GMT -5
They hired Bloom because they do want to operate like Tampa, but with more money. None of that is "disrespect" for Betts. All I'm saying is that if Duran blossoms to the point where he is very much a viable candidate for CF - a guy who looks like he can lead off, run like crazy, play a respectable CF, and even provide some pop - the Sox will go with him for CF. If Benintendi bounces back as I suspect he will - he's a really cheap option. Between Verdugo, Benintendi, and Duran, you have three outfielders under control for awhile, with none making big dollars.Which in no way constitutes a replacement for a superstar player, even allowing for a very optimistic projection for Duran.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2020 9:23:55 GMT -5
We do have a chance to convince them this season that the reduction of ticket sales and tv ratings without Mookie will cost them as much as paying him will. My guess is if Duran has a break-through - if some of that power is real and the hitting tool stays intact, they're going to pencil in the 2021 outfield as Benitendi/Duran/Verdugo and they won't be chasing after Mookie. The implicit disrespect for Betts in some of these posts is wild.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 1, 2020 10:07:39 GMT -5
Not sure that I could absorb all the detail but the gist is what I supposed. One would suspect that Mookie knew this, but if so, he obviously risks denting his value. If he hits .285-.290 with 23 Hrs., is he commanding 12/35? Maybe he will be back next year! The Fred Lynn situation is what had come to my mind. Or he'll just lower his launch angle and go up the middle a little more and hit .330 with a 15% walk rate.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2020 15:15:14 GMT -5
Reality pushing in on baseball. Taiwan has been very careful about the virus, but it's also host to a very large population of visitors from mainland China. Get used to it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2020 11:43:11 GMT -5
Is there literally anything he could do at this point that wouldn't get heavy criticism? I feel like an underrated aspect of this saga is how completely Manfred undermined his own credibility by playing dumb every time anyone has asked him about the juiced ball for the past four years or so. Believe what you want in regards to MLB changing the ball intentionally or not, it has been proven many times that something is going on with the baseball, and he's denied even that basic reality. You can't just spend years saying something isn't happening when it clearly is happening, and then expect anyone to take your investigation into some other issue seriously.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 15:17:31 GMT -5
Didn't Bard's "yips" turn out to be thoracic outlet syndrome? He was definitely a TOS guy, maybe I have the timeline confused though.
Also I'm pretty sure Jon Lester got over his yips, but his problem was throwing to first base only, truly one of the strangest things ever to happen in baseball.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 15:12:36 GMT -5
add: he also isn't personally gaining at all. No one is going to throw a parade for this guy for doing the right thing but he's getting death threats from the brainless Astros fans that can't handle the truth of what's going on right now. Yeah let's just be clear here, no one is trying to say Mike Fiers's face should be on the twenty dollar bill or something. I can't speak for everyone but I'm pretty sure we all just think it's insane to like double-punish him for being the guy who actually spoke up.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 8:33:56 GMT -5
He is friends and was teammates with known cheaters. His organization is under investigation for cheating for the 2nd time since 2017 (Apple watches). He's friends with Altuve. He's not just saying Fiers is wrong for what he did, he's saying Altuve didn't even cheat. He's also praising Manfred. It's a cluster of bad takes. What's crazy is that he's criticizing Fiers for speaking up after the fact, but defending Altuve for speaking up not at all. Maintaining the silence is seen as preferable to speaking up the wrong way. If you want to be disappointed in someone where, be disappointed in guys like Altuve and Verlander who A) would certainly seem to know better and B) actually have the standing to speak up in that clubhouse.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 8:26:53 GMT -5
Canseco is also not The Guy who blew the lid off PEDs in baseball. He's a guy who pushed a bunch of unsubstantiated rumors to sell his book and gain attention after everything started popping off. I thought "Juiced" kicked off the whole thing? I'm having a hard time Googling what made this story explode. Juiced was '05. It was a cash-in, not a kick-off.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 7:59:02 GMT -5
As far as Conseco, that's fair. It doesn't change the fact baseball only acted after the fact after knowing about it for years. Canseco is also not The Guy who blew the lid off PEDs in baseball. He's a guy who pushed a bunch of unsubstantiated rumors to sell his book and gain attention after everything started popping off.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 7:27:05 GMT -5
I can see people posting and coming after me and saying "are you really comparing the two cheating situations?" No I'm not. I'm clearly just going after Fiers fairly. I would never would want him on my side. Pedro and Ortiz can team with me any day.Again... this kind of thing is not really building the credibility of your case the way you think it is. It just makes you look more tribal and reactionary. Again, you
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2020 5:40:49 GMT -5
I just think me and you have different opinions on Fiers. He only did it for his new team and his gain. What a person does is far more important than why they do it. If I pull you out of a burning building, but I only do it because I think there's a reward in it for me... I mean, you want me to put you back in there because my heart wasn't pure enough?
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