|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on May 11, 2023 9:23:42 GMT -5
I'll never forget Vitek crushing a homer over the Green Monster in a Futures at Fenway game (can we bring those games back btw?!?) and thinking he was gonna be a future major leaguer. Granted I was like 13 at the time
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 25, 2023 8:34:17 GMT -5
It's basically the happy medium between the dueling arguments of "just use the technology" and "keep the human element", so I would guess it's the most likely to eventually be put into practice in the MLB. Keeps both sides appeased.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 23, 2023 10:22:33 GMT -5
Gonna be a cold and windy day at Portland, but excited all the big names (except Lugo) are in the lineup today:
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 20, 2023 7:33:50 GMT -5
I mean, to be fair the Red Sox depth chart for a 2023 SS from the end of 2022 season to today went:
Xander Bogaerts (unexpected ridiculous contract offer from SD) Trevor Story (injury) Adalberto Mondesi (injury) Kiké Hernandez
There's not many teams that look good with their 4th option at a position (maybe Mondesi wasn't ahead of Kiké, but they were expected to share the position this season). And honestly, is Jose Iglesias or Elvis Andrus really moving the needle on this team's win-loss record so far or overall 2023 expected outcome? I'd love to have an avg defensive shortstop out there to make pitchers and the defense look better, but I'd rather make due with what we have than waste money or trade capitol on the difference to go from like 81 to 83 wins.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 7, 2023 8:11:50 GMT -5
Was at the Portland game last night. Whitlock looked very good, had the one walk in the 2nd and the HR by Ritter in the 5th might have been a fly out in a deeper LF, but just got over the Monster. Sikes was the most exciting player on the field, the homerun was crushed off the scoreboard in left center, and he got a great jump on the stolen base. Someone I'm definitely gonna follow this season (I have 11 more games at Hadlock this year). Nick Yorke had a tremendous eye, I think swinging only once in his first 3 AB's to work walks. Rafaela didn't look great at the plate, his one hit was a shallow fly ball to left along the line that the LF botched. It looked like it was going foul, but then curved back in to fair territory and the LF overran it. Rafaela barely made it to first because he stood in the box and could have easily had a double had he run hard the whole time (maybe unfair because it DID look foul the whole way, but just bad optics once it hit the ground and he was only like 3 steps out of the box)
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 17, 2023 11:36:09 GMT -5
I mean, Mondesi is younger, cost the same (maybe cheaper if we got cash considerations instead of a PTBNL) and is better than Andrus, just more injury prone. You could MAYBE argue equally injury prone given Andrus's age, but I wouldn't. So I'll take the younger higher ceiling player on a team that isn't in "win-now" mode. Maybe Mondesi finally has a healthy season and you have anywhere from a super utility to full time infielder that you can re-sign or trade at the deadline depending on how your season is going. Or he has another unhealthy season, you end up using your other bench/depth options and all you lost was Josh Taylor.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 7, 2023 15:44:43 GMT -5
Downtown House of Pizza in Fort Myers is also phenomenal. Fat Katz is also great, I ate with Joe Kelly there one time, I'd recommend the pierogis as an app. Probably not surprising, but there's usually a couple players or coaches at Twin Peaks in the evening hours as well
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 10, 2023 10:15:38 GMT -5
MLB Pitcher: Garrett Whtilock MLB Position Player: Masataka Yoshida
MiLB Pitcher: Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz MiLB Position Player: Nick Yorke
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 24, 2023 12:53:44 GMT -5
I mean, there is literally no one the Red Sox could realistically acquire that would put this team into a World Series or bust approach, so all you people complaining that this is "dumpster diving" need a reality check. Whether you think they should be in a win-it-all approach is a different argument, but it's clear this is a year where the goal is to just field an interesting and like-able 70-80 win team (that if everything breaks right could be in the playoffs). So give me all the 1 year lottery tickets in the world. If Mondesi turns back into the .260/.292/.421 ++speed and +defense player he was in 2020-21 then that's a solid guy to have a leg up on when Free Agency rolls around (or the trade deadline if they're out of it).
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 3, 2023 14:53:31 GMT -5
Ed (@edhand89) is one of my favorite new follows on Twitter!
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 15, 2021 11:47:49 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation. I definitely think both are penciled into the rotation. I guess it's now Eovaldi/Sale/FA tbd/Whitlock/Houck as the starting 5. I'd guess Bloom signs Matz? Then he finds two guys in the bargain bin to replace Perez and Richards as "depth options" and Seabold and Crawford are further depth starting the season in AAA. Don't forget Pivetta. Could possibly open the year with Sale/Eovaldi/FA/Pivetta and Houck and Whitlock piggybacking each other as the number 5. You can't just plug them both into the rotation full time with Whitlock throwing 73 innings and Houck throwing 90. Can't expect both to put up 150+ innings that quickly.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 15, 2021 9:00:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't have been upset with the Sox signing this deal, but I'm all for Sale/Eovaldi/Pivetta plus two FA's like Duffy, Cobb, or Grienke on 1-2 yr deals. Then depth like Whitlock and Houck as possible starters mid-season, signing a couple Quad-A arms with Seabold, Crawford and Winckowski being next options in the minors.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jul 20, 2021 10:30:06 GMT -5
It would take a "maverick" owner who would be ok pissing off every other owner, and unfortunately I just don't see it happening. It seems so simple to be the first team to offer free housing, state-of-the-art nutrition/training and other "perks" to every minor leaguer which would lead to happier players, better performance and a slight advantage in recruiting players or keeping them around. And it would all cost less than a single 0.5 WAR free agent signing (going by the $8M/1 WAR estimate on fangraphs), but it just won't happen unless the PR gets SO bad that every owner is forced to do it.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jul 13, 2021 12:49:47 GMT -5
That's actually a pretty good point too, the de-juicing of the baseballs is clearly having an effect on the lower and mid-tier power hitters. Seems most of the big power guys are still knocking plenty out though, but definitely an overall decrease in home runs this season.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jul 13, 2021 10:43:13 GMT -5
Doing the unrealistic but basic math of doubling everyone's HR totals since we're about halfway through the season, the guys I was really off on were Marwin (I was way off on him across the board. Thought he'd be a big comeback guy), Dalbec (the avg looks about right just expected quite a few more of those singles and THREE TRIPLES to be homers), Franchy (and with the way he's hitting in Worcester maybe there's a slight chance he ends up with double digits?) and Vazquez (his HR rate of 1.3% is WAY down from 2020:3.7% and 2019:4.4%). Either way, quite a few guys on this team are over performing, so maybe there's some significant drop off in the second half.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on May 5, 2021 7:54:22 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 5, 2021 7:41:03 GMT -5
Yes I too can't believe the Red Sox haven't signed a single 18 year old who has turned into an impact MLB player in the last couple years. I mean you want to talk about inept, not a single guy they drafted last year has even played in the majors yet, I mean, what a failure of a front office!
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 2, 2021 12:08:43 GMT -5
I will put a big asterisk in that I probably did not put enough stock into how teams are going to handle starters innings coming off the shortened 2020 season. Mostly due to the fact I don't think anyone really knows yet. Will they shorten starts to 4-5 innings and shuffle the bullpen more often? Add a 6th starter? Skip every 2nd or 3rd start through the rotation and use a guy like Whitlock/Andriese? They all seem to be on the table. I do think Perez though likely leads the team in innings and games started, but that's based more on the fact that the other 4 have much bigger health questions than anything else. Some of the AB distribution doesn't look particularly correct to me. Chavis and Santana add up to a full season's worth of ABs. Arroyo plus Duran do as well. And you already have Marwin Gonzalez getting nearly a full season's worth of ABs. I guess that there's just so many ABs to go around, so I have trouble seeing that scenario. Good point, looks like I probably overestimated by about 300-400 at bats total. The Red Sox previous seasons AB's are 5624 (prorated), 5770, 5623 and 5669. I've got 6018 projected, so that's too high, have to keep that in mind for next time, thanks!
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 2, 2021 9:34:05 GMT -5
I mean, 266 HR's would have been 5th in the league in 2019, and the Sox are very deep in Power first guys (Dalbec, Cordero, Renfroe) and overall good hitters with power (JD, Devers, Bogaerts) so I don't think it's out of the question. As for the 5.00 ERA, it's just predicting the individuals likely outcome. Chances are someone is going to have a bad season, but why predict one guy to just have a blow up season other than the odds that someone will?
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 2, 2021 9:03:22 GMT -5
I will put a big asterisk in that I probably did not put enough stock into how teams are going to handle starters innings coming off the shortened 2020 season. Mostly due to the fact I don't think anyone really knows yet. Will they shorten starts to 4-5 innings and shuffle the bullpen more often? Add a 6th starter? Skip every 2nd or 3rd start through the rotation and use a guy like Whitlock/Andriese? They all seem to be on the table. I do think Perez though likely leads the team in innings and games started, but that's based more on the fact that the other 4 have much bigger health questions than anything else.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 25, 2021 11:00:05 GMT -5
I think that the graphic that RedSoxStats showed in one of the other threads showing Kiké Hernández’s hits overlayed on Fenway showing an uptick in HR’s (or at least wall banging singles/doubles) also played a part. Plus Renfroe likes to go oppo a lot, and Dalbec has been showing opposite field power as well. I think with this specific team, there’s a slight lean towards right field power which is a benefit of Fenway
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 25, 2021 8:25:15 GMT -5
I posted an article on my site, but was curious to hear some responses from the more seasoned posters of Sox Prospects. Let me know what you guys think (original article with my notes on some of the projections posted here: scotchcigarsandsox.com/2021/03/24/wild-speculations-projecting-the-2021-red-sox/) HittersPlayer | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
---|
Rafael Devers | 605 | 111 | 31 | 99 | 5 | 50 | 132 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.532 | 0.868 | Alex Verdugo | 575 | 92 | 19 | 72 | 9 | 49 | 99 | 0.305 | 0.361 | 0.464 | 0.825 | JD Martinez | 565 | 88 | 29 | 95 | 2 | 65 | 145 | 0.278 | 0.352 | 0.505 | 0.857 | Xander Bogaerts | 560 | 92 | 27 | 102 | 15 | 59 | 112 | 0.296 | 0.364 | 0.522 | 0.886 | Bobby Dalbec | 468 | 65 | 33 | 70 | 3 | 55 | 184 | 0.231 | 0.321 | 0.462 | 0.783 | Kiké Hernandez | 435 | 70 | 18 | 68 | 5 | 44 | 106 | 0.268 | 0.331 | 0.445 | 0.776 | Christian Vazquez | 425 | 56 | 12 | 56 | 3 | 28 | 88 | 0.272 | 0.315 | 0.413 | 0.728 | Hunter Renfroe | 422 | 62 | 28 | 71 | 3 | 37 | 128 | 0.228 | 0.295 | 0.491 | 0.786 | Marwin Gonzalez | 402 | 49 | 14 | 55 | 2 | 39 | 86 | 0.262 | 0.322 | 0.409 | 0.731 | Franchy Cordero | 321 | 48 | 16 | 48 | 7 | 30 | 104 | 0.245 | 0.308 | 0.446 | 0.754 | Christian Arroyo | 308 | 42 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 22 | 72 | 0.253 | 0.315 | 0.426 | 0.741 | Danny Santana | 275 | 33 | 11 | 39 | 10 | 19 | 89 | 0.252 | 0.305 | 0.462 | 0.767 | Michael Chavis | 245 | 28 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 0.235 | 0.297 | 0.418 | 0.715 | Kevin Plawecki | 212 | 22 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 38 | 0.258 | 0.322 | 0.381 | 0.703 | Jarren Duran | 200 | 28 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 47 | 0.272 | 0.321 | 0.388 | 0.709 |
Starters/Swing MenPlayer | GS | IP | W | L | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
---|
Martin Perez | 32 | 169 | 11 | 11 | 128 | 62 | 4.72 | 1.41 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 28 | 144 | 12 | 7 | 157 | 49 | 3.94 | 1.32 | Nick Pivetta | 25 | 133 | 10 | 9 | 139 | 48 | 4.43 | 1.39 | Nathan Eovaldi | 22 | 129 | 9 | 4 | 131 | 35 | 4.05 | 1.27 | Garrett Richards | 18 | 111 | 7 | 6 | 106 | 44 | 3.99 | 1.24 | Chris Sale | 12 | 77 | 6 | 3 | 105 | 19 | 2.99 | 1.08 | Tanner Houck | 11 | 76 | 5 | 3 | 71 | 34 | 3.24 | 1.21 | Garrett Whitlock | 7 | 85 | 4 | 4 | 67 | 35 | 4.54 | 1.42 | Matt Andriese | 5 | 79 | 5 | 3 | 77 | 28 | 4.62 | 1.38 | Connor Seabold | 2 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 4.65 | 1.39 |
RelieversPlayer | IP | SV | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
---|
Adam Ottavino | 67 | 7 | 78 | 31 | 2.75 | 1.04 | Matt Barnes | 64 | 22 | 81 | 29 | 3.61 | 1.32 | D. Hernandez | 59 | 3 | 68 | 32 | 2.84 | 1.44 | Josh Taylor | 49 | 0 | 52 | 27 | 4.02 | 1.33 | Hirokazu Sawamura | 44 | 2 | 46 | 18 | 4.24 | 1.42 | Austin Brice | 44 | 0 | 43 | 19 | 4.44 | 1.38 | Ryan Brasier | 42 | 0 | 46 | 16 | 3.98 | 1.29 | Phillip Valdez | 32 | 0 | 29 | 16 | 4.14 | 1.38 | John Schreiber | 18 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 4.45 | 1.37 | Colton Brewer | 16 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 4.33 | 1.52 | Eduardo Bazardo | 12 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3.05 | 1.22 |
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 11, 2021 14:26:14 GMT -5
Eh, that's kind of an exaggeration. Hit 41 once and 37 once, but the other two years were 29 and 24. I don't think to point that out is nitpicking either - guys who hit 20-30 HR are one thing, guys who top 40 are another. And as pointed out above, it's about more than the HR and strikeouts. During his 4-year run as a regular, he hit .219/.315/.470 (.221/.318/.474 if you include his very good half season before that). MLB first basemen collectively hit .256/.338/.462 in 2019. Carter's line makes you slightly below average at 1B now. As I've said, the strikeouts themselves aren't the issue. I don't care in a vacuum how many strikeouts Dalbec has really. It's the fact that it's really hard to hit for a decent average striking out in 30+ percent of your plate appearances. Dalbec will probably walk, but whether he hits .210 versus .260 is going to make an enormous difference. Adam Dunn Year. HR. BB. SO 2004. 46. 108. 195* 2005. 40. 114. 168* 2006. 40. 112. 194* 2007. 40. 101. 165 2008. 40. 122*. 164 * league leader I would be happy with this!! I mean Adam Dunn had a career 15.8 walk rate and that includes when he could barely hit .200 with Chicago, and that's good for 20th ALL TIME of guys with at least 5000 PA's (so about 10 seasons). As much as people rip on Dunn for only hitting Homeruns and walking, he was clearly one of the best all time at taking BBs. Dalbec put up a 10.9% walk rate last year in the majors, and an 11.7% walk rate in 1609 minor league PA's, so he's probably never going to reach Dunn's walk rate
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 11, 2021 9:53:45 GMT -5
I'd say I'm just hoping for Dalbec to be something like Prime years Adam Dunn with less walks. Example: 2006 .234/.365/.490 (.855 OPS) with 40 HR's 92 RBI and 112 BB's. Now Dalbec will likely never walk that much, but maybe drop OBP 50 points and that's still a .234/.315/.490 (.805 OPS) line and I think that's probably the the ideal likely outcome. For context (just because I was curious), Jose Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 in 159 games in 2019 and that was good for a 116 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR. In 2018 CJ Cron hit .253/.323./.493, good for a 124 wRC+ and 2.2 WAR. So based on these comps, I guess you're saying Dalbec has about a 2-WAR ceiling? I don't know if I would call it a ceiling, more like the best case of his most likely outcomes.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 11, 2021 9:20:51 GMT -5
I'd say I'm just hoping for Dalbec to be something like Prime years Adam Dunn with less walks. Example: 2006 .234/.365/.490 (.855 OPS) with 40 HR's 92 RBI and 112 BB's. Now Dalbec will likely never walk that much, but maybe drop OBP 50 points and that's still a .234/.315/.490 (.805 OPS) line and I think that's probably the the ideal likely outcome.
|
|