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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Aug 2, 2013 11:34:00 GMT -5
I just wanted to say a few things. Almost every year a team needs at least 8 starters. I love Bucholtz, but he's injured every season. Dempster,Peavy, and Lackey are not getting any younger and most likely need a break during the 2014 season. With our depth of pitching we can keep our starters fresh. If all 6 our of vets are healthy at the same time we'd move Dempster into our bullpen.
With the Promotion of Owens to Portland he has a shot at making our 2015 rotation.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 2, 2013 12:06:12 GMT -5
I am not totally opposed to trading an MLB pitcher this offseason. In the past there have not been the depth at triple a to fill in for the inevitable starting pitcher injuries. Next year there will be Webster, Workman, De La Rosa, wright and Britton all in triple A and the MLB bullpen. Ranaudo could be ready around mid season. Barnes and Owens might potentially be ready late in the season. That is a ton of pitching in the high minors.
Of course the return on the pitcher traded needs to be a top prospect. I just do not see anyone giving up a top prospect.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Aug 2, 2013 14:11:53 GMT -5
Re: selling high on Lackey I understand the logic behind the argument, especially given recent events. Two years of James Shields brought back Wil Myers. One year of Shin-Soo Choo brought back Trevor Bauer. If there's a team willing to buy high on John Lackey and surrender a top-30 prospect, especially one at a position of need and who is almost major-league ready, I would be willing to talk. Say, Dylan Bundy or Mike Zunino or Travis d’Arnaud or Jonathon Singleton. But I don't see that happening, both because there are a limited number of GMs you can rip off (many of whom might be fired this offseason) but also because other GMs know that the Red Sox aren't the Rays or the Athletics who need to sell guys off for salary space and so will be suspicious of making a move. I am certainly not moving Lackey for a B prospect (read: anyone who would not slot into the current SP.com top 10) and am happy holding onto him if noone bowls me over. A top 30 prospect and someone who would slot into the top 10 are two very different things. You will have a surplus of 30+ year old pitchers next year, you don't need to get help now and sacrifice value over the long-term. I'd look at L/L Outfielder Joc Pederson (Age 21) from the Dodgers who is in AA, has no place in LA's crowded outfield in the future with Crafword, Ethier, Puig, and Kemp and has a good K/BB rate (I think Austin Meadows with more power). Last year had a 313/.396/.516 line in High-A with 18 homers and 26 steals and this year he has a .283/.379/.489 line (after an unsightly July line of .203/.324/.373) so far with 15 homers and 28 steals (MiLB.com). We have JBJ and Brentz (who I don't think the sox view as the RF of the future) in the mix for outfield and not much else (only 3 OF in the top 20). Only concerning thing is that Pederson has a 1.004 OPS vs RHP and a .594 OPS vs LPH. The Dodgers may be without Beckett next year as "he fears he may never be able to pitch again" per ESPN and their #5 has a 4.54 ERA this year so they would want Lackey for next season and the Dodgers owners have made it pertty clear that money won't be a problem.
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2013 14:17:27 GMT -5
There's obvious a spectrum between top 30 in baseball and top 10 in the Red Sox system in which it would depend on the player and the rest of the package. Pederson might be enough if the Dodgers tossed in another minor prospect or two, Peavy stays healthy and productive, and Dempster rebounds some.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 2, 2013 14:37:41 GMT -5
Even if the Sox have the same rotation next year (which has the potential to be better than this year) That pitching depth in the minor league system will really start to be festering at the top. Webster is in between ready and could cross the bridge next year, Ranaudo might be right behind him and Workman will be in the mix. Also I'm hoping RDLR will look more consistent and have more endurance in his second full season back. Also I suspect Barnes will be in the mix as well. He's looked much better lately and I can see him making a big jump next year. It will be interesting to see who gets the first call and who sticks by the end of the year.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 18, 2013 12:08:25 GMT -5
I would like to keep Lackey. The contract is very good the rest of the way and even if he takes a small step back he is still pitching for the minimum on the final year. I think the two obvious candidates to go are Dempster and Doubront. With Doubront being dangled for Stanton or a young 1B. I could see the Marlins being interested in a package headlined by Doubront JBJ and others.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2013 21:48:57 GMT -5
Buchholz (until he gets hurt) Lester Lackey Peavy Doubront Dempster
One of these guys will be hurt(you know at some point it will be Buchholz) and if not somebody like Dempster or Doubront will go back and forth between the rotation and pen.
I don't expect any deals. The last time the Sox went into a season with six established starters they dealt Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena and wound up scrambling for starting pitching.
At some point when there are additional injuries the Sox will bring up Webster, possibly Ranaudo, and or Workman or Britton could get a start as well as could De La Rosa, or even Wright.
In other words it won't be much different from this season.
2015 and 2016 is a better speculatory guess.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 19, 2013 8:31:45 GMT -5
I think one of the 6 "established" starters will get dealt. There is a ton of AAA depth to start the season and Owens could potentially be up towards the end of the year.
One of the starters will be worth more as a trade chip IMO.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 19, 2013 9:42:40 GMT -5
Buchholz (until he gets hurt) Lester Lackey Peavy Doubront Dempster One of these guys will be hurt(you know at some point it will be Buchholz) and if not somebody like Dempster or Doubront will go back and forth between the rotation and pen. I don't expect any deals. The last time the Sox went into a season with six established starters they dealt Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena and wound up scrambling for starting pitching. At some point when there are additional injuries the Sox will bring up Webster, possibly Ranaudo, and or Workman or Britton could get a start as well as could De La Rosa, or even Wright. In other words it won't be much different from this season. 2015 and 2016 is a better speculatory guess. I know this is the starting pitching trhead. Just wanted to point out that our 14 pen is pretty much set too. IMO Don't have to throw prospects/money at middlin pitchers for a change. Can poke around for a major upgrade like Cliff Lee. Butk I don't see that Pen RHP K. Uehara J. Tazawa B. Workman R. DeLa Rosa LHP A. Miller C. Breslow F. Morales D. Britton I'm letting Hanrahan and Bailey walk unless they want to sign a minor league contract. Still have some good arms in Pawtucket. Starters - A. Webster and A. Ranaudo. Pen A. Wilson and C. Martin.
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Post by knuckledown on Aug 19, 2013 10:16:10 GMT -5
Buchholz (until he gets hurt) Lester Lackey Peavy Doubront Dempster One of these guys will be hurt(you know at some point it will be Buchholz) and if not somebody like Dempster or Doubront will go back and forth between the rotation and pen. I don't expect any deals. The last time the Sox went into a season with six established starters they dealt Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena and wound up scrambling for starting pitching. At some point when there are additional injuries the Sox will bring up Webster, possibly Ranaudo, and or Workman or Britton could get a start as well as could De La Rosa, or even Wright. In other words it won't be much different from this season. 2015 and 2016 is a better speculatory guess. I know this is the starting pitching trhead. Just wanted to point out that our 14 pen is pretty much set too. IMO Don't have to throw prospects/money at middlin pitchers for a change. Can poke around for a major upgrade like Cliff Lee. Butk I don't see that Pen RHP K. Uehara J. Tazawa B. Workman R. DeLa Rosa LHP A. Miller C. Breslow F. Morales D. Britton I'm letting Hanrahan and Bailey walk unless they want to sign a minor league contract. Still have some good arms in Pawtucket. Starters - A. Webster and A. Ranaudo. Pen A. Wilson and C. Martin. As a rough analysis, think about what you'd get back for trading an established starter, measured in WAR, year-to-date. Buchholz: 2.9 WAR Lackey: 2.5 WAR Doubront: 2.5 WAR Lester: 2.5 WAR Dempster 1.2 WAR Workman: 0.7 WAR Peavey w/ Boston: 0.2 WAR (1.4 w/ both teams) So a straight up trade for a position player (which seems to be the talk), measured in WAR, year to date, would yield you a player like: Howie Kendrick, Brett Gardner, Will Venable, Alexi Ramirez, Chease Headley, Adrian Gonzalez or Juan Uribe. (all 2.5 WAR, the mode WAR of Boston starting rotation). Do any of those really excite you? Irrespective of contracts and age, which this analysis has completely ignored, which makes it a whole lot less useful. I am in favor of a large group of good contributors. Outside of a trade that upgrades starting pitching for starting pitching, I think this rotation can ultimately bring the Red Sox to the post season and have a very-good-to-reasonable shot at a World Series. If you want a comparative analysis to Detroit you're gonna have to buy me lunch.
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Post by knuckledown on Aug 19, 2013 10:31:02 GMT -5
Look's like I'm buy me lunch. Again.
Detroit starters ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR: 3.39, 3.13, 3.33, 19.2 Rangers starters ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR: 3.94, 3.87, 3.72, 13.3 Red Sox starters ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR: 3.99, 4.03, 3.88, 11.9 Yankees starters ERA, FIP, xFIP, WAR: 4.03, 3.85, 3.84, 11.9
That's 1-4 in the AL.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 15, 2013 22:12:54 GMT -5
Cafardo recently wrote a piece in which he thought most Sox starters would be available with the exception of Buchholz. He thinks one of the other five will be dealt. Who do you guys think is the most likely to be traded?
I think it makes the most sense to move Dempster or Doubront depending on the deal. I don't see us getting a great offer for Dempster with his contract though so maybe Doubront?
Lester and Peavy will be QO candidates anyway. I think they are solid pieces for the rotation as well for 2014.
Lackey has looked pretty good and has that minimum salary clause coming up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2013 23:43:17 GMT -5
Cafardo recently wrote a piece in which he thought most Sox starters would be available with the exception of Buchholz. He thinks one of the other five will be dealt. Who do you guys think is the most likely to be traded? I think it makes the most sense to move Dempster or Doubront depending on the deal. I don't see us getting a great offer for Dempster with his contract though so maybe Doubront? Lester and Peavy will be QO candidates anyway. I think they are solid pieces for the rotation as well for 2014. Lackey has looked pretty good and has that minimum salary clause coming up. Cafardo is pretty moronic so I wouldn't take him too seriously. Unless they got a real bargain for Doubront, I don't see them making a deal. I don't see anybody taking Dempster's annual salary off their hands. Honestly, I don't see the problem with having six starters lined up for next year. Guys get hurt - these things sort themselves out. Dempster can be a very expensive reliever. There are always options. Last time the Sox felt compelled to deal away rotation depth Bronson Arroyo went to Cincy for Wily Mo Pena and then thru injuries the Sox found themselves short of starting pitching.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 16, 2013 7:50:08 GMT -5
You lost me at Cafardo
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on Oct 16, 2013 8:32:41 GMT -5
Cafardo recently wrote a piece in which he thought most Sox starters would be available with the exception of Buchholz. He thinks one of the other five will be dealt. Who do you guys think is the most likely to be traded? .. Cafardo is pretty moronic so I wouldn't take him too seriously. Unless they got a real bargain for Doubront, I don't see them making a deal. ... Last time the Sox felt compelled to deal away rotation depth Bronson Arroyo went to Cincy for Wily Mo Pena and then thru injuries the Sox found themselves short of starting pitching. Nice interview on NPR's Fresh Air the other day with Jamie Moyer, who pitched almost 2000 innings after we traded him for a mediocre position player. Not a winter trade like that of Arroyo for Pena, and we did really need Darren Bragg, but should be mentioned alongside Arroyo.
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2013 8:48:11 GMT -5
The one reason I think the Red Sox might want to trade one of the six establish starters is that there is a lot of depth behind them. Workman, Webster, and Wright already have major league experience, though they've all been inconsistent. Morales could try and get stretched out again in Spring Training. Ranaudo and Barnes should be ready for spot starts by June, if not earlier. They'll probably grab another veteran reclamation project to fill out the Pawtucket rotation.
The bigger problem is that the obvious trade candidate (Dempster) has the combo of poor performance and expensive contract. Lester and Lackey are good enough that they won't get moved unless a team offers a Myers-esque prospect. Trading Doubront would be selling low on a player who had an above-average 3.78 FIP and is under team control for four more years-- he should fetch as good a return as Lester or Lackey, but I doubt other teams would make that kind of offer. Peavy is the other trade candidate, and I think he could get moved if another team makes a good offer.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 16, 2013 9:07:55 GMT -5
The one reason I think the Red Sox might want to trade one of the six establish starters is that there is a lot of depth behind them. Workman, Webster, and Wright already have major league experience, though they've all been inconsistent. Morales could try and get stretched out again in Spring Training. Ranaudo and Barnes should be ready for spot starts by June, if not earlier. They'll probably grab another veteran reclamation project to fill out the Pawtucket rotation. The bigger problem is that the obvious trade candidate (Dempster) has the combo of poor performance and expensive contract. Lester and Lackey are good enough that they won't get moved unless a team offers a Myers-esque prospect. Trading Doubront would be selling low on a player who had an above-average 3.78 FIP and is under team control for four more years-- he should fetch as good a return as Lester or Lackey, but I doubt other teams would make that kind of offer. Peavy is the other trade candidate, and I think he could get moved if another team makes a good offer. Peavy is a QO guy and a good playoff starter so I don't think it makes sense to move him either. I like the idea of putting Dempster in the pen even though its an overpay. He'll still get some starts when injuries come.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 16, 2013 9:29:41 GMT -5
Lester Buchholz Tanaka Lackey Peavy/Workman/Ranaudo
Doubront is traded in the package for Giacarlo Stanton after they win the bid for Tanaka. Dempster traded as well, though I haven't yet decided to whom. I'll say NL team in a package.
I'll post the winning PowerBall numbers for tonight a little later.
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 16, 2013 9:34:53 GMT -5
The one reason I think the Red Sox might want to trade one of the six establish starters is that there is a lot of depth behind them. Workman, Webster, and Wright already have major league experience, though they've all been inconsistent. Morales could try and get stretched out again in Spring Training. Ranaudo and Barnes should be ready for spot starts by June, if not earlier. They'll probably grab another veteran reclamation project to fill out the Pawtucket rotation. The bigger problem is that the obvious trade candidate (Dempster) has the combo of poor performance and expensive contract. Lester and Lackey are good enough that they won't get moved unless a team offers a Myers-esque prospect. Trading Doubront would be selling low on a player who had an above-average 3.78 FIP and is under team control for four more years-- he should fetch as good a return as Lester or Lackey, but I doubt other teams would make that kind of offer. Peavy is the other trade candidate, and I think he could get moved if another team makes a good offer. What about Buchholz then? He is potentially a dominant starter coming off a season with great numbers, albeit shortened by the injury. But that injury does not appear to be arm related or anything that should linger. His potential dominance in a sellers market should command a large return.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on Oct 16, 2013 9:44:47 GMT -5
Not eager to trade depth too fast, but Lackey's contract over the next two years, while valuable to us, could be even more valuable to a team that want to win games in the postseason but can't spend much money. Especially if we can, as I hope, call him "two-time World Series hero John Lackey"
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 16, 2013 9:56:29 GMT -5
The one reason I think the Red Sox might want to trade one of the six establish starters is that there is a lot of depth behind them. Workman, Webster, and Wright already have major league experience, though they've all been inconsistent. Morales could try and get stretched out again in Spring Training. Ranaudo and Barnes should be ready for spot starts by June, if not earlier. They'll probably grab another veteran reclamation project to fill out the Pawtucket rotation. The bigger problem is that the obvious trade candidate (Dempster) has the combo of poor performance and expensive contract. Lester and Lackey are good enough that they won't get moved unless a team offers a Myers-esque prospect. Trading Doubront would be selling low on a player who had an above-average 3.78 FIP and is under team control for four more years-- he should fetch as good a return as Lester or Lackey, but I doubt other teams would make that kind of offer. Peavy is the other trade candidate, and I think he could get moved if another team makes a good offer. What about Buchholz then? He is potentially a dominant starter coming off a season with great numbers, albeit shortened by the injury. But that injury does not appear to be arm related or anything that should linger. His potential dominance in a sellers market should command a large return. Buchholz has a great contract and is under team control through like 2017, he isn't going to be traded. I also don't see how the Yankees don't get Tanaka, they're desperate and the bid fee doesnt count towards the cap.
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Post by nexus on Oct 16, 2013 10:09:13 GMT -5
I'd like to see the Sox (and I think they will, knowing their history) go hard after Ubaldo Jimenez. I realize he will likely cost a pick, but he put together a large enough sample of dominant performance this season to warrant a long term contract.
I think he reinvented himself as the season progressed, relying more on his SL v. CH, and turned himself into a shutdown starter. He's the type of 'under-the-radar-value' guy I could see as their top offseason target.
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2013 10:28:22 GMT -5
Buchholz is pretty much untradable. His performance (when healthy) and contract mean that the Red Sox will be looking for a truly elite haul, but other teams will have questions about his health.
Frankly, I'd rather they keep Lester/Buchholz/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront. That's an elite rotation, and it's not like the farm system desperately need replenishing. If a team is willing to eat most of Dempster's contract, I'd move him, but he's fine as expensive depth as well. I'm only moving one of those first five guys if there's a blow-me-away type of offer.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 16, 2013 10:38:57 GMT -5
Buchholz is pretty much untradable. His performance (when healthy) and contract mean that the Red Sox will be looking for a truly elite haul, but other teams will have questions about his health. Frankly, I'd rather they keep Lester/Buchholz/Lackey/Peavy/Doubront. That's an elite rotation, and it's not like the farm system desperately need replenishing. If a team is willing to eat most of Dempster's contract, I'd move him, but he's fine as expensive depth as well. I'm only moving one of those first five guys if there's a blow-me-away type of offer. I agree with this.
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Post by jdb on Oct 16, 2013 11:19:24 GMT -5
I agree with the last two posts which would make Dempster the odd man out. I think we would have to eat the salary or add another piece to get a good return but we would still have 3-4 guys waiting in the wings in AAA.
Another thought would be if you don't think Lester is worth the 100+ million he may command next offseason trade him now and get a top prospect not a lottery ticket in the 35-45 pick range come June 2015.
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