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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 22, 2013 22:07:19 GMT -5
Unfortunately, the Sox might wind up with neither, as they really haven't taken the plunge since the Daisuke signing. They didn't get in on Darvish (which really bothered me), ignored Cespedes, and didn't get involved with Soler (wish they had an OF prospect like him in the minors). That was before the trade though, that off season they had their hands tied with all the big contracts so I understood why they didn't get in any of these cases. This off season is different since they have flexibility to spend on what ever they want, trades or free-agents. Not saying they'll definitely get one or be in on either but just wouldn't use what happened that year as an example.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 22, 2013 22:20:32 GMT -5
I'd like to remind everyone here that NPB veterans with just a 91-92mph FB can do much better than some of those supposedly TOP NPB SP that come over, lets just compare a couple like Hisashi Iwakuma.. 91-92, devastating FB, change vs the ill fated Matsuzaka that was billed as having 95+, yet only early on touched 95 and had 3-5 pitches, yet was scared to death it looked like here.
Iwakuma is a master of his craft and pitches like it.
Lesson? It's in the makeup and how they translate to MLB and kind of a crapshoot.
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Post by feez732 on Aug 22, 2013 23:20:11 GMT -5
This might be a stupid question, but is 130 K in 158 IP very good over there? I see where the raw number of strikeouts is near the top of the league, but it's not a K/9 that would garner much attention here in the minors. From baseball-reference, he's ranked 20th by K/9 in the JPL this year among pitchers with > 35 ip. Only 3 of the pitchers ahead of him have more than 60 innings pitched (he has 158 IP). That also doesn't include Japan's other league though, the Central League. Otherwise, remember that k/9 undersells pitchers with low walk rates as they'll have fewer opportunities to strike out an opposing batter. He also has roughly a 260 babip, which when compared to the MLB average, again provides fewer opportunities. If instead you look at K%, he's around 21.3% on the year. Without adjusting for league, that's almost exactly what John Lackey has done this year (30th of 88 qualified starters in the majors). I'm not really sure how much any of this information is worth though. As others have pointed out, how Japanese pitchers translate to the majors seems to vary considerably.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 22, 2013 23:41:28 GMT -5
As others have pointed out, how Japanese pitchers translate to the majors seems to vary considerably. I mean, he's a Japanese pitcher with a splitter, so I assume that if nothing else you can throw him in the bullpen and get a 700/3 K/BB rate out of him for a couple years...
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 23, 2013 7:04:05 GMT -5
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 23, 2013 7:20:58 GMT -5
I was starting to wonder if anybody got the reference.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 23, 2013 8:02:37 GMT -5
I'd like to remind everyone here that NPB veterans with just a 91-92mph FB can do much better than some of those supposedly TOP NPB SP that come over, lets just compare a couple like Hisashi Iwakuma.. 91-92, devastating FB, change vs the ill fated Matsuzaka that was billed as having 95+, yet only early on touched 95 and had 3-5 pitches, yet was scared to death it looked like here. Iwakuma is a master of his craft and pitches like it. Lesson? It's in the makeup and how they translate to MLB and kind of a crapshoot. Ya. But Iwakuma doesn't throw a gyro ball!!
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2013 10:47:58 GMT -5
The idea that Japanese pitchers coming to the US is an unpredictable roll of the dice is becoming more prevalent, but I don't think it stands up.
-Matsuzaka pitched pretty well for two years and then had injury problems. He was obviously not someone who lived up to pretty insane expectations, but it's not like he was completely unsuited for American ball. -Iwakuma had a sub 3.00 ERA in three of his last four years in Japan, so it's not like he was some kind of stiff over there and came to the U.S. and dominated. -Yu Darvish has been everything advertised. He'd be making a run at 300 strikeouts if he hadn't missed two starts with injury. He's a 214 through 24 starts and probably has six left, so if he stays healthy he's a shoo-in for 250+.
The risk in signing Japanese pitchers seems to me to be that there is inherent risk in all pitchers, not that they are Japanese.
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Post by pinksnica on Aug 23, 2013 11:24:12 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Aug 23, 2013 14:20:14 GMT -5
While all pitchers are risky. It certainly seems worthwhile to take the risk on a guy who has dominated the second best league in the world.
A note on Matsuzaka, while he was disappointing, he was an above average pitcher the first two years, then injuries took their toll, which shouldn't have been that surprising.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 23, 2013 14:32:31 GMT -5
Dice-K's problem wasn't that he lacked stuff or was less than advertise it was in his head. He didn't seem to have confidence in that stuff and nibble too much in the corners.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 23, 2013 16:02:50 GMT -5
The idea that Japanese pitchers coming to the US is an unpredictable roll of the dice is becoming more prevalent, but I don't think it stands up. -Matsuzaka pitched pretty well for two years and then had injury problems. He was obviously not someone who lived up to pretty insane expectations, but it's not like he was completely unsuited for American ball. -Iwakuma had a sub 3.00 ERA in three of his last four years in Japan, so it's not like he was some kind of stiff over there and came to the U.S. and dominated. -Yu Darvish has been everything advertised. He'd be making a run at 300 strikeouts if he hadn't missed two starts with injury. He's a 214 through 24 starts and probably has six left, so if he stays healthy he's a shoo-in for 250+. The risk in signing Japanese pitchers seems to me to be that there is inherent risk in all pitchers, not that they are Japanese.On the one hand, I agree. If the Phillies had acquired Roy Halladay from the Ham Fighters instead of the Blue Jays, everyone would be talking about how another team got burned on a Japanese pitcher, whereas no one is drawing any particular conclusions about American pitchers based on his decline. But that said, the Japanese game is significantly different from the MLB game, beyond just the level of competition. Different schedule, different routine, different style of hitting, etc. So while MOST of the risk in Japanese pitchers just has to do with them being pitchers, there is some extra risk involved with Japanese pitchers (all Japanese players, really) on top of that. For instance, even when Matsuzaka was good in his first couple years, he was still underachieving compared to what he might have been based on his stuff, probably because he was either unwilling or unable to adapt to hitters who weren't going to chase strike three and weren't afraid to shake hands with ball four.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2013 16:14:58 GMT -5
Probably not the best example. Roy Halladay had 14 WAR his first two years with the Phils. Matsusaka was at 7 WAR his first two years.
I am not sure what you are trying to argue here, but if you are arguing that pitchers from Japan carry equal risk to pitchers who have pitched in the majors I think you'd have to offer a little evidence for that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 23, 2013 16:24:46 GMT -5
Probably not the best example. Roy Halladay had 14 WAR his first two years with the Phils. Matsusaka was at 7 WAR his first two years. I am not sure what you are trying to argue here, but if you are arguing that pitchers from Japan carry equal risk to pitchers who have pitched in the majors I think you'd have to offer a little evidence for that.
Dude, are you for real? I literally said the opposite of what you're implying in the rest of my post, which you conveniently deleted for your quote, as if people aren't just going to read it anyway.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2013 21:51:54 GMT -5
You were the one who tried to compare one of the greatest pitchers in baseball to Matsusaka not me. Get over it. Maybe you should write more clearly.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2013 22:18:24 GMT -5
There was absolutely nothing in FTHW's post that compared Halladay to Matsuzaka. Anywho, For instance, even when Matsuzaka was good in his first couple years, he was still underachieving compared to what he might have been based on his stuff, probably because he was either unwilling or unable to adapt to hitters who weren't going to chase strike three and weren't afraid to shake hands with ball four. I just wonder if his approach was radically different in Japan. If so, scouts or someone should've picked up on it and flashed big red warning signs. If not - I mean, that would be just kind of weird and I don't think there's anything we can take away from it other than Daisuke was/is an odd duck. I think the bigger difference is that, as was said above, Japanese pitchers throw way, way too many innings as kids, making them much higher risk before they're out of the injury nexus. It's like every prospect there is Wade Townsend.
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Post by willacky on Aug 24, 2013 0:37:20 GMT -5
Here are some videos of Tanaka search: ?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 26, 2013 20:26:27 GMT -5
From Ben Badler, a scouting report: bit.ly/15pJtZDA few excerpts: Tanaka has arguably the best splitter in the world, which is partly because so few pitchers in MLB throw the pitch. Of his eight strikeouts, six of them came on the splitter, with five of Tanaka’s victims swinging over the pitch, which generally registered around 86-89 mph. Tanaka threw an 82-85 mph slider, which scouts say can be a plus pitch, although his splitter was his go-to out pitch against the Marines. He also mixed in a few 72-76 mph curveballs, mostly early in the count trying to throw it in the zone to give batters a different look. Scouts who have followed Tanaka note that he sinks on the backside of his delivery, which causes his fastball to come in on a flatter plane and makes it a more hittable pitch than the pure velocity would suggest His FB tracked between 91-97 for the outing scouted. Badler said he lived closer to 96 than 91. Badler also followed up with this tweet: @benbadler: First RT @dmyrickg87 Where would you have taken Tanaka if he was in the 2013 mlb draft?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 26, 2013 20:38:17 GMT -5
Just curious... where do you guys see this guy fitting into our rotation? We would have to trade multiple starters to make it work.. Which I don't see happening.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 26, 2013 21:50:13 GMT -5
Just curious... where do you guys see this guy fitting into our rotation? We would have to trade multiple starters to make it work.. Which I don't see happening. Lester, Dempster, and Peavy are all free agents after 2014, and BC probably would not want to be forced to remake the rotation in one off-season. Therefore, Tanaka would not just be an investment for 2014. If BC wanted to open up a spot, Lester, Dempster, and Peavy are all movable.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 26, 2013 21:59:28 GMT -5
Personally I'm not sure he does fit, but he's 24 and only costs money. If they think he's a legit #2 and they don't intend to resign Lester or think Felix has peaked valuewise, those guys could be the centerpieces of significant deals. Peavy a little less so because of his injury history. All this assumes that Dempster, too, is expendable, though not as much a piece as Lester or Doubront or Peavy. I think they hang onto Lackey because that extra year at MLB min provides great value and Buchholz because he has #1 stuff and a reasonable contract. But if Tanaka looks like a # 1 (and I'm not saying he does) and you get him, you make the best deal you can for max talent for whichever guy(s) you believe you can leverage best, all things considered.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 26, 2013 22:27:10 GMT -5
I could see the Blue Jays interested if they want to give it another go.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 27, 2013 1:02:14 GMT -5
I've got one question first and foremost. How big are his hands? Seriously... DiceK struggled to get the same movement on his pitches here as he did in Japan because his hands are small. He was fine in Japan because the ball is smaller. Yu has big hands and long fingers so he hasn't had the same issue. It's not the end all and be all, but it's something I'd be very concerned about if I were a GM looking at a Japanese pitcher.
I'm not sure how people can be impressed with his K numbers. It seems sort of silly to me to predict he'll all of a sudden K more people here than in Japan. It almost feels like one of those things that someone says early on in a guys evaluation and it just sticks due to the limited information and people just keep regurgitating it.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 27, 2013 6:16:48 GMT -5
Matsuzaka got hurt. Tazawa got hurt. There is potentially some increased risk in signing Japanese pitchers because of the way they are used and abused coming up in high school and their training methods are much more demanding. They are also smaller than the typical 6' 4" guy the sox seem to like to draft at the starting pitcher position. Projected health and ability to handle the physical demands of mlb pitching are all huge factors.
At the same time, all that extra work gives Japanese pitchers potentially more fastball control and when they are healthy they can be lights out. Even guys with less stuff can be very successful due to their increased command and excellence in developing off speed stuff like splitters and for example Okajima's change.
It appears that they should at least look at the situation strongly. I would hope at least put in a serious bid. They should be in a position to do so.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 27, 2013 7:15:48 GMT -5
From Ben Badler, a scouting report: bit.ly/15pJtZDBadler also followed up with this tweet: @benbadler: First RT @dmyrickg87 Where would you have taken Tanaka if he was in the 2013 mlb draft? I mean, this might sound like a "wow" thing but it's pretty obvious. He's a potential top of the rotation starter with good stuff who's already proven himself at a high level minor league. You can't say that about any amateur draft prospect as a rule. That's like saying Taijuan Walker would have been taken #1 in the 2013 draft.
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