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Post by jdb on Dec 9, 2013 10:14:18 GMT -5
If I'm the Mariners and Tanaka gets posted I over pay to get him and not trade Walker for Price.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2013 13:42:25 GMT -5
While I'd like to see the Sox go after Tanaka, I don't really see it happening. I expect the Yanks and Dodgers to fight it out for him and I expect the Yankees to come away with him. I'd be surprised if it's anybody else. Tanaka will probably be posted real soon. Don't know if Peavy or Dempster will be dealt by then. Most likely not. I wouldn't expect them to be dealt until most of the other pitchers are off the board and a team gets desperate. At that point, I'd hope it would be Dempster. I still think there's a chance that Peavy can help the Sox in 2014 and be a much better pitcher than he showed those last two outings. NOT SO FAST nypost.com/2013/12/08/yanks-must-shed-a-rods-salary-to-beat-luxury-tax/I doubt they won't be in on Tanaka or Ervin Santana. They need to replace Andy Pettitte and they really need the innings. Doubt they go the Freddy Garcia route and Bartolo Colon is a possibility but while he won't command a long contract, I doubt he'd come cheaply on a year deal. The Yanks are going to have to spend to get a reliable starter which they sorely need, and I doubt that they'll get that guy by trading Gardner or Ichiro. They might get a 2b dealing Gardner, but I doubt they'll get a top flight starter. I still don't believe the Yanks will stay under the 189 million. BTW, the Dodgers I believe (and I could be wrong) are trying to replace Nolasco, so I believe they'll be going for Tanaka. I would suspect the Cubs would make a strong pitch as well as they'll have plenty of payroll and he's young and would be effective as their young kids graduate to the majors in the next few years. But I still expect the Yanks to come away with Tanaka. I could be wrong. Certainly wouldn't be the first time given my track record.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2013 14:52:30 GMT -5
You also have to consider that there's no way that Arroyo and A-rod could be on the same team.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 9, 2013 15:41:26 GMT -5
You also have to consider that there's no way that Arroyo and A-rod could be on the same team. So, there's this thing called money. It can be exchanged for goods and services...
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 9, 2013 16:03:16 GMT -5
You also have to consider that there's no way that Arroyo and A-rod could be on the same team. So, there's this thing called money. It can be exchanged for goods and services... It was a joke. I'm sure Arroyo would get along with anyone.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Dec 10, 2013 23:36:27 GMT -5
I haven't read this entire thread, so apologies if anybody has mentioned something along the lines of the story I'm about to post. Tim Britton explains how the Red Sox would benefit if Tanaka isn't posted this winter. www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20131210-red-sox-would-benefit-if-masahiro-tanaka-is-not-posted.eceSome can argue that a team can never have enough pitching, and if Tanaka is as good as he's perceived, he's worth getting regardless of the current starting depth. But it doesn't seem like the Red Sox will try to sign him. I think they'll definitely bid (at $20 million, why not), however I think they're still a bit sour about what happened to Dice-K.
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Post by zil on Dec 11, 2013 1:27:01 GMT -5
I haven't read this entire thread, so apologies if anybody has mentioned something along the lines of the story I'm about to post. Tim Britton explains how the Red Sox would benefit if Tanaka isn't posted this winter. www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20131210-red-sox-would-benefit-if-masahiro-tanaka-is-not-posted.eceSome can argue that a team can never have enough pitching, and if Tanaka is as good as he's perceived, he's worth getting regardless of the current starting depth. But it doesn't seem like the Red Sox will try to sign him. I think they'll definitely bid (at $20 million, why not), however I think they're still a bit sour about what happened to Dice-K. Even after Darvish came over and has been great?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 11, 2013 15:45:26 GMT -5
Why would he be posted this year if the Japanese team can keep him and his 24-0 record another year then post him next year and get the same 20 mil return?
If he is not posted, this will be an interesting thread next year with at least Dempsters dough off the books (and sadly, potentially Lester's).
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2013 16:00:20 GMT -5
As the link that Kevin posted above indicated, Red Sox fans should be rooting for Tanaka to be posted next year. The Red Sox might actually want him next year (with Dempster, Peavy, and potentially Lester opening up rotation spots), and his absence this year makes Dempster and Peavy more appealing on the trade market.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 16:02:48 GMT -5
The Sox could maximize value by signing Tanaka and trading Buchholz in a mega-deal if it presents itself.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 11, 2013 17:28:22 GMT -5
Potential 2014 FA SPs: Kershaw Schzerzer Tanaka Bailey, Homer Lester Shields Masterson
A couple will probably be off the market - but that is as strong a list of FA pitchers as I can remember if it stays that way.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 16, 2013 16:11:46 GMT -5
I believe Alex Spier hinted that the Red Sox are likely out of the Tanaka chase because they think his ceiling is of a # 3. If anyone can dig back up the exact quote I would appreciate it since I'm on a phone right now.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 16, 2013 16:28:01 GMT -5
Speier did say Red Sox THIS YEAR are likely out but what about next year? Golden Eagles Trying To Convince Tanaka To Stay In Japan By Steve Adams [December 16, 2013 at 8:18am CST] The Rakuten Golden Eagles will try to convince Masahiro Tanaka to stay in Japan for one more season, according to a Sponichi Report passed along by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman (Twitter link). Taking things a step further, a source indicated over the weekend to George A. King III of the New York Post that Tanaka won't be posted until after the 2014 season. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/golden-eagles-trying-to-convince-tanaka-to-stay-in-japan.html nypost.com/2013/12/14/source-tanaka-may-stay-in-japan/
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2013 16:32:44 GMT -5
"Unless it's an impressive smokescreen, I don't believe the Sox will be in on Tanaka given their view of him (Ceiling of a No.3) and what they already have in their system."
- Alex Speier
Which I happen to agree with per the scouting reports I've read. I haven't been blown away so considering what the Sox have, I don't see the reason to put that financial investment into a higher risk guy with a limited ceiling.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 16, 2013 16:59:39 GMT -5
Thanks for the exact quote.
I don't think it's likely they'll be on him even next year unless their scouting opinion changes.
Nothing wrong with a number 3 but with so many teams in on him and having the pitching depth they have I think they would rather invest on someone they think is an ace.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 16, 2013 17:07:51 GMT -5
The reduced posting fee makes Tanaka less of an opportunity anyway.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 16, 2013 21:04:31 GMT -5
Just for the record, if he is posted the Red Sox need to be aggressively involved whether they truly want to sign him or not. He is clearly the Yankees #1 target and thus we need to make sure they pay a premium to get him.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Dec 16, 2013 21:10:39 GMT -5
Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times is reporting that Rakuten is granting Tanaka his right to be posted.
Yahoo.com Link
Let the games begin.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 16, 2013 23:32:28 GMT -5
If Tanaka is getting posted, the absolute minimum we need to do is drive up the price. If I see Tanaka signing with NY for less than 15 million per year, I will be disappointed.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 16, 2013 23:45:33 GMT -5
The Yanks assumed they had Infante. How did that work out? Let's hope it happens again.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 17, 2013 8:24:34 GMT -5
The Yanks assumed they had Infante. How did that work out? Let's hope it happens again. Well I know that they expressed interest in Infante but forever, seemingly, they have been hot for Tanaka. Their scouts apparently think a lot higher of him than Boston's. If they want him, they will get him given their financial strength. Tanaka would give them a pretty impressive rotation on paper. But I don't think there is any way they ultimately get under $189M this year even without A-Rod.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 17, 2013 8:29:53 GMT -5
If Tanaka is getting posted, the absolute minimum we need to do is drive up the price. If I see Tanaka signing with NY for less than 15 million per year, I will be disappointed. If the front office views Tanaka as a #3, why would we do this? We are too focused on the MFY. If they want to exceed the luxury tax threshold, they will do it regardless of what we do.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 17, 2013 8:42:35 GMT -5
A curious comment by Alex to include in a chat about Sox prospects. I am always skeptical about leaks of what would be the most sensitive internal evaluations prior to 30 days of blind bidding. Of course, my prior tin-foil strategic leaks theories on Ellsbury and Cano have been utter rubbish.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 17, 2013 8:53:30 GMT -5
If Tanaka is getting posted, the absolute minimum we need to do is drive up the price. If I see Tanaka signing with NY for less than 15 million per year, I will be disappointed. If the front office views Tanaka as a #3, why would we do this? We are too focused on the MFY. If they want to exceed the luxury tax threshold, they will do it regardless of what we do. To be focused on the Red Sox by defintion means focus on the Yankees.We always want to make things as painful as possible for them. Intellectual assessments, valid though they may be, lose out to emotion for most ardent Sox fans....but hopefully not to the front office.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 8:54:32 GMT -5
If Tanaka is getting posted, the absolute minimum we need to do is drive up the price. If I see Tanaka signing with NY for less than 15 million per year, I will be disappointed. If the front office views Tanaka as a #3, why would we do this? We are too focused on the MFY. If they want to exceed the luxury tax threshold, they will do it regardless of what we do. The again the front office thought Darvish was a #3. How'd that go?
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