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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 17, 2013 8:58:04 GMT -5
Do we know the front office thought him a #3? I don't remember this. Can you provide a link?
My understanding is that they were hamstrung a bit by their budget and desire to stay under the salary cap.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 17, 2013 8:58:20 GMT -5
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Post by elguapo on Dec 17, 2013 9:30:52 GMT -5
Well I know that they expressed interest in Infante but forever, seemingly, they have been hot for Tanaka. Their scouts apparently think a lot higher of him than Boston's. It's curious, since the Sox have been one of the most active teams scouting him. We can only read the tea leaves, but ..... who knows. There's really no reason not to post - the team would be fine going into Spring Training as is and it is an opportunity in the opportunistic phase of the offseason.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2013 10:20:37 GMT -5
Well I know that they expressed interest in Infante but forever, seemingly, they have been hot for Tanaka. Their scouts apparently think a lot higher of him than Boston's. It's curious, since the Sox have been one of the most active teams scouting him. We can only read the tea leaves, but ..... who knows. There's really no reason not to post - the team would be fine going into Spring Training as is and it is an opportunity in the opportunistic phase of the offseason. That's doing due diligence. Just because you are very active in scouting a player doesn't mean you come to a super high opinion. However, a number 3 isn't a bad thing.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 17, 2013 10:23:44 GMT -5
It wouldn't be the first time misinformation (about intentions/feelings regarding a free agent) was leaked. And it won't be the last time. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 10:32:47 GMT -5
Do we know the front office thought him a #3? I don't remember this. Can you provide a link? My understanding is that they were hamstrung a bit by their budget and desire to stay under the salary cap. I don't have a link but I think I remember one of the Globe reporters writing that in either Sunday Baseball Notes or Extra Bases. And budget aside, if they were sure he was a 25 year old #1 starter and could've had him for AAV of $9.3M but passed because they were worried about the Luxury Tax then shame on them. You get that, trades can be made, or you pay the tax for a year and deal the next year. If Tanaka is a #3 then pass. If he's better than that he's worth the posting fee and, well - how much does a 25 year old #2 or better go for on the open market? If you can get that at below market value then the possibilities in terms of trading some of your remaining pitching assets become quite interesting.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 10:35:50 GMT -5
Do we know the front office thought him a #3? I don't remember this. Can you provide a link? My understanding is that they were hamstrung a bit by their budget and desire to stay under the salary cap. I don't have a link but I think I remember one of the Globe reporters writing that in either Sunday Baseball Notes or Extra Bases. And budget aside, if they were sure he was a 25 year old #1 starter and could've had him for AAV of $9.3M but passed because they were worried about the Luxury Tax then shame on them. You get that, trades can be made, or you pay the tax for a year and deal the next year. If Tanaka is a #3 then pass. If he's better than that he's worth the posting fee and, well - how much does a 25 year old #2 or better go for on the open market? If you can get that at below market value then the possibilities in terms of trading some of your remaining pitching assets become quite interesting. He's not going below market value now with half the league trying to sign him. And there is still a risk that he doesn't turn out all rosey.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 17, 2013 10:54:21 GMT -5
At the minimum they should post the 20 million so they have an opportunity to bid.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 10:59:40 GMT -5
I don't have a link but I think I remember one of the Globe reporters writing that in either Sunday Baseball Notes or Extra Bases. And budget aside, if they were sure he was a 25 year old #1 starter and could've had him for AAV of $9.3M but passed because they were worried about the Luxury Tax then shame on them. You get that, trades can be made, or you pay the tax for a year and deal the next year. If Tanaka is a #3 then pass. If he's better than that he's worth the posting fee and, well - how much does a 25 year old #2 or better go for on the open market? If you can get that at below market value then the possibilities in terms of trading some of your remaining pitching assets become quite interesting. He's not going below market value now with half the league trying to sign him. And there is still a risk that he doesn't turn out all rosey. This from an organization who thought Dice-K was going to revolutionize the game. I doubt they truly thought Yu Darvish was a "number 3". If there were any word of it, I would think these "leaks" were generated to either A.) Depreciate his market value and see if they can make a more fiscal run at him or B.) Try to justify why they didn't go after a guy who is an absolute ace pitching in Arlington for 3/4 SP money. The posting fee was high, but when it doesn't count against the cap, $9.3 AAV is a bargain. To put it into perspective, Jake Peavy's 2013 salary was $14,500,000 while Ryan Dempster was $13,250,000. Edit: With that said. I've been watching clips of Tanaka and I'm really not impressed. His "highlights" reel includes a number of batters striking out from swinging at god awful pitches. According to scouting reports I've read, he has a larger repertoire than Yu Darvish, but his out-pitch is not nearly as good. Mix that with his declining peripherals in Japan and I would only take a flier on him as 4th starter. His AAV will probably by in that range, but the posting fee is still owner money and I don't think they're going to want to make that level of investment on a kid who truly projects as a 3 when Alan Webster, Ruby De La Rosa, Workman, Barnes, and Ranaudo could just as easily fill out that role at league minimal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 17, 2013 11:17:55 GMT -5
At the minimum they should post the 20 million so they have an opportunity to bid. Agreed. There is zero risk. If nothing else, plant seeds for the chance he later hits free agency and you're interested then.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 17, 2013 11:52:45 GMT -5
It's hard to believe the guy is a # 3 when he had the best numbers in japan last year. Such things fluctuate though don't they. For starters.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 12:05:53 GMT -5
It's hard to believe the guy is a # 3 when he had the best numbers in japan last year. Such things fluctuate though don't they. For starters. Look what happened to Dice-K and he was supposed to be a "phenom". I'd think Japanese baseball is around the AA/AAA level if anything. Also, look at Tanaka's numbers the past three years and tell me you're not alarmed by them?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 12:25:40 GMT -5
I don't have a link but I think I remember one of the Globe reporters writing that in either Sunday Baseball Notes or Extra Bases. And budget aside, if they were sure he was a 25 year old #1 starter and could've had him for AAV of $9.3M but passed because they were worried about the Luxury Tax then shame on them. You get that, trades can be made, or you pay the tax for a year and deal the next year. If Tanaka is a #3 then pass. If he's better than that he's worth the posting fee and, well - how much does a 25 year old #2 or better go for on the open market? If you can get that at below market value then the possibilities in terms of trading some of your remaining pitching assets become quite interesting. He's not going below market value now with half the league trying to sign him. And there is still a risk that he doesn't turn out all rosey. As there is with any signing, especially of pitchers.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 12:38:35 GMT -5
He's not going below market value now with half the league trying to sign him. And there is still a risk that he doesn't turn out all rosey. As there is with any signing, especially of pitchers. I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2013 12:41:03 GMT -5
It's hard to believe the guy is a # 3 when he had the best numbers in japan last year. Such things fluctuate though don't they. For starters. I think you feel the Japanese league is of a much greater quality then most other people do. This is a league where major league washouts go to put up huge numbers and become stars. And no I'm not a racist for stating that . It's just a fact that the Japanese leagues are a much lower quality then the major leagues. That's not the same thing as saying Japanese players can't play in MLB. They obviously can. It just means, you have to take Tanakas numbers for what they are and can't automatically translate his dominance there to top notch MLB success. If you could DiceK would've been an all-star several times over.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 12:41:19 GMT -5
As there is with any signing, especially of pitchers. I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks. Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barns/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 12:44:40 GMT -5
I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks. Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barns/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? I'd extend Lester for 6/100 before I'd give it to Tanaka.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2013 12:45:18 GMT -5
At the minimum they should post the 20 million so they have an opportunity to bid. Agreed. There is zero risk. If nothing else, plant seeds for the chance he later hits free agency and you're interested then. While I agree they should make the post, I don't think making it plants future seeds for free agency. I mean couldn't posting, then under bidding have the opposite affect?
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Post by elguapo on Dec 17, 2013 12:47:27 GMT -5
I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks. Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barnes/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? Sure. But it takes 5(++) to make a rotation. Assuming Lester re-signs, there are two open rotation slots medium term, and $16M/yr for a good #3 in his prime is potentially a very good value.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 12:52:53 GMT -5
Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barnes/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? Sure. But it takes 5(++) to make a rotation. Assuming Lester re-signs, there are two open rotation slots medium term, and $16M/yr for a good #3 in his prime is potentially a very good value. Eh, assuming the Red Sox re-sign Lester, you're talking about: Lester, Buchholz, Doubrount, Webster, De La Rosa, Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo, Ownes, Ball, and potentially even Smith or whomever else gets drafted, traded for, or signed as a FA. The Sox have options for many years. I would stay very far away from Tanaka at 6/100 with his declining peripherals and less than stellar stuff.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 12:52:55 GMT -5
As there is with any signing, especially of pitchers. I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks. Which brings me back to the scouting - if an org really thinks that he is a #2 or better, that's a good deal for a 25 year old pitcher (depending on the medicals). If not, you walk away. Ben Badler at Baseball America is extremely bullish on him and has seen him live. I never saw Tanaka pitch live. I saw Darvish live twice in Japan the season before he was posted and was convinced he was a real deal pitcher. I never thought he'd be as good in MLB as he has been, however. Then again, I'm not an MLB scout. All I'm saying is, if your scouts say he is a solid #2 then you go all in. If not then you bid but play the market. Or they can wait until the end of 2014 and sign Jon Lester, who is 6 years older, for 6 years and $130-140M (Bradford's estimate).
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 12:56:51 GMT -5
I'm watching a chat with Jeff Sullivan right now and he just guessed 6/100 for Tanaka. No thanks. Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barns/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? I'd take that bet depending on how you define "better." If he's a legit #3 he's better than all those guys except maybe Barnes, who could be a solid #3 as well.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 13:37:25 GMT -5
Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barns/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? I'd take that bet depending on how you define "better." If he's a legit #3 he's better than all those guys except maybe Barnes, who could be a solid #3 as well. So you don't believe that Webster, Ranaudo, Workman and Ownes don't have the potential to be a #3 as well? I have to disagree with this assessment. I don't think they'll all pan out, but I think two of them could reach their ceilings (including Barnes).
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Post by elguapo on Dec 17, 2013 13:55:33 GMT -5
So you don't believe that Webster, Ranaudo, Workman and Ownes don't have the potential to be a #3 as well? You didn't mention Owens originally - or RDLR - but it's a rather involved question anyway. Let's start from the assumption that Tanaka is a solid #3, which is our best intelligence of what the Sox think, per Speier. That's good, but every pitcher has injury and performance risk. If we also assumed, for simplicity, that Webster, et al, can be #3s if each pans out, then you have a 4 or 5 against 1 situation. Tanaka has the highest expected performance, but there's an excellent chance at least 1 of the 4 or 5 eclipses him, either because Tanaka falters or 1 or more of the prospects turns into a frontline starter. The obvious problem is the Sox can't be sure which pitcher will pan out, or when.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 14:11:58 GMT -5
It is kind of funny to see posters respond to rumors of 6/100 for Tanaka so negatively based on some talent evaluator labeling him more as a number 3 than an ace, then only to immediately say that we should extend Lester to that very same deal.
This is by no means me predicting that Tanaka will be a better pitcher than Lester over the next six seasons, nor is it me dismissing the risk inerrant to a guy switching from the Japanese League to the Majors. Actually, I am in lest try to extend Lester to a 6/100 type deal myself, it is just a matter that fully realize that Lester will be much more like a number three than an actual ace over the life of that extension.
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