SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 14:26:19 GMT -5
Fair point that I didn't mention RDLR or Ownes on the original bet. It is kind of funny to see posters respond to rumors of 6/100 for Tanaka so negatively based on some talent evaluator labeling him more as a number 3 than an ace, then only to immediately say that we should extend Lester to that very same deal. This is by no means me predicting that Tanaka will be a better pitcher than Lester over the next six seasons, nor is it me dismissing the risk inerrant to a guy switching from the Japanese League to the Majors. Actually, I am in lest try to extend Lester to a 6/100 type deal myself, it is just a matter that fully realize that Lester will be much more like a number three than an actual ace over the life of that extension. For me it's this: 2011: K/9: 9.6 K/BB: 8.93 2012: K/9: 8.8 K/BB: 8.89 2013: K/9: 7.8 K/BB: 5.72 That and he's going to be 25 with 1315.0 IP already under his belt. From what I read he can touch 96, but throws in the low 90s.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 14:48:11 GMT -5
It is kind of funny to see posters respond to rumors of 6/100 for Tanaka so negatively based on some talent evaluator labeling him more as a number 3 than an ace, then only to immediately say that we should extend Lester to that very same deal. This is by no means me predicting that Tanaka will be a better pitcher than Lester over the next six seasons, nor is it me dismissing the risk inerrant to a guy switching from the Japanese League to the Majors. Actually, I am in lest try to extend Lester to a 6/100 type deal myself, it is just a matter that fully realize that Lester will be much more like a number three than an actual ace over the life of that extension. What's funny about it? We know Lester and have a much better idea of what to expect from him.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 14:55:09 GMT -5
The ability to better project Lester is definitely a huge plus, I was just remarking on how posters are negatively responding to the idea that Tanaka may only be a #2 or #3, while not realizing that Lester is certainly no better than a #2 at this point and going forward is much more likely to be a #3. There seems to be a disconnect, that is all.
Again, I am in favor of extending Lester, and with our depth I do not see Tanaka as a good fit for our team. But a 6 year 100 million dollar contract for a 25 year old who profiles as a #2 or #3 is not outlandish at all.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 15:01:38 GMT -5
The ability to better project Lester is definitely a huge plus, I was just remarking on how posters are negatively responding to the idea that Tanaka may only be a #2 or #3, while not realizing that Lester is certainly no better than a #2 at this point and going forward is much more likely to be a #3. There seems to be a disconnect, that is all. Again, I am in favor of extending Lester, and with our depth I do not see Tanaka as a good fit for our team. But a 6 year 100 million dollar contract for a 25 year old who profiles as a #2 or #3 is not outlandish at all. Well, he doesn't flash a "plus-plus" pitch, he hangs in the low 90s, a righty, and had a slight decline in K rates before falling off a cliff last season. Mix that with the fact he's already thrown 13150 IP and he's turning 25? Thanks but no thanks. I'm going to be unfair and call him Michael Bowden. I just don't trust him for some reason. I was all in Yu Darvish, but I was also all in for Dice-K, so what the hell do I know?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 15:01:45 GMT -5
The ability to better project Lester is definitely a huge plus, I was just remarking on how posters are negatively responding to the idea that Tanaka may only be a #2 or #3, while not realizing that Lester is certainly no better than a #2 at this point and going forward is much more likely to be a #3. There seems to be a disconnect, that is all. Again, I am in favor of extending Lester, and with our depth I do not see Tanaka as a good fit for our team. But a 6 year 100 million dollar contract for a 25 year old who profiles as a #2 or #3 is not outlandish at all. But you are assuming that there is no risk in naming Tanaka as a 2 or a 3 and it's just fact.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 15:03:50 GMT -5
I'd take that bet depending on how you define "better." If he's a legit #3 he's better than all those guys except maybe Barnes, who could be a solid #3 as well. So you don't believe that Webster, Ranaudo, Workman and Ownes don't have the potential to be a #3 as well? I have to disagree with this assessment. I don't think they'll all pan out, but I think two of them could reach their ceilings (including Barnes). I've been saying Workman is a #3 since I saw him pitch for Texas, but I think that's his best case ceiling; the scouts on this site (Mellen et al) were saying a #5 or pen but have nudged him up a bit, I think. I've seen Ranaudo live several times and think #3 is his ceiling; the experts here who do talent eval say he's more likely a 4-5. Barnes I saw a bit at UConn - but his middling 3rd pitch (curve) prob projects him as a #3 at best, as well. Webster has the best chance to be much more than a #3 but also the best chance to follow Miller into the pen. Personally I think that's his fate, if not Daniel Bard's path. Owens wasn't in the list. So yeah, I take that bet. Plus if I lose, I'm always up for buying someone a six-pack because I was wrong.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 15:21:43 GMT -5
I mentioned the risk of Tanaka transitioning from the NPB to the Majors in my first post and then I again hinted towards the difficulty of projecting Tanaka in my second post. I am labeling Tanaka as either a #2or#3 based on what talent evaluators and scouts have said and that earlier tidbit from Spier. That is only information we have to go on, unless you are inclined to trust davenport translations - which show Tanaka as legitimate #2.
So yeah, the fact that most evaluators have him pegged as a #2 or #3 starter and because the Davenport translations support those claims, that is the assumption that I am working with. Is there risk? Of course. Could the transition be more difficult to him than say Darvish or Kuroda? Possibly. But is there any really compelling reason to not trust the scouts ? Not really.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 15:35:00 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 3m
1 GM who wont be bidding for tanaka: "i dont think theres any doubt" he'll get more than $100M
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 15:36:04 GMT -5
I mentioned the risk of Tanaka transitioning from the NPB to the Majors in my first post and then I again hinted towards the difficulty of projecting Tanaka in my second post. I am labeling Tanaka as either a #2or#3 based on what talent evaluators and scouts have said and that earlier tidbit from Spier. That is only information we have to go on, unless you are inclined to trust davenport translations - which show Tanaka as legitimate #2. So yeah, the fact that most evaluators have him pegged as a #2 or #3 starter and because the Davenport translations support those claims, that is the assumption that I am working with. Is there risk? Of course. Could the transition be more difficult to him than say Darvish or Kuroda? Possibly. But is there any really compelling reason to not trust the scouts ? Not really. Let's hope he doesn't discover McDonalds like Dice-K did.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 17, 2013 16:02:57 GMT -5
Japanese pitchers seem to be quite good at throwing splitters. The amount of time they put into practice is possibly a factor. Tanaka is reputed to have one of the very best splitters in the world. And he would be brand new here in the states, at least for 2-3 years a major factor in baseball I would think. Look at Kuroda and Koji and other Japanese pitchers with great splitters. It's a game changing pitch for those who can throw it as well as they do, with the level of command they show. If anything, Tnaka has better overall stuff than Kuroda or Koji.
Clemens pitched extremely well even very late in his career in part because of his splitter. I'm betting on Tanaka. I hope to God they sign Tanaka.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 16:25:23 GMT -5
Clemens pitched extremely well even very late in his career in part because of his splitter. I'm betting on Tanaka. I hope to God they sign Tanaka. And partly because he was a chemical experiment.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 16:32:03 GMT -5
Japanese pitchers seem to be quite good at throwing splitters. The amount of time they put into practice is possibly a factor. Tanaka is reputed to have one of the very best splitters in the world. And he would be brand new here in the states, at least for 2-3 years a major factor in baseball I would think. Look at Kuroda and Koji and other Japanese pitchers with great splitters. It's a game changing pitch for those who can throw it as well as they do, with the level of command they show. If anything, Tnaka has better overall stuff than Kuroda or Koji. Clemens pitched extremely well even very late in his career in part because of his splitter. I'm betting on Tanaka. I hope to God they sign Tanaka. When I win Mega Millions tonight, I'll sign Tanaka and make him go to your birthday party.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 16:49:51 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 17:11:39 GMT -5
Badler via Twitter also said that "under the table payments" are illegal, but happen in MLB. He wasn't offering evidence, but then again, 140 characters, and that's a rumbling that's been out there for years. Then again, you had an official MLB investigator offering a brown paper bag with more than $100K cash for some of ARod's records, so….
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2013 17:13:47 GMT -5
Badler via Twitter also said that "under the table payments" are illegal, but happen in MLB. He wasn't offering evidence, but then again, 140 characters, and that's a rumbling that's been out there for years. Then again, you had an official MLB investigator offering a brown paper bag with more than $100K cash for some of ARod's records, so…. There's likely nothing stopping teams from doing this. And it's probably not technically against the rules.
|
|
|
Post by bsout2 on Dec 17, 2013 17:26:54 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think this new system stinks and the Red Sox should not even bother.
What is the best case scenario? You sign a starter at market value.
What is the worst case scenario? You pay a swing-man #1 or #2 money.
I believe under the new system the risk completly outweighs the reward.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2013 22:10:51 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think this new system stinks and the Red Sox should not even bother. What is the best case scenario? You sign a 25 year-old #2 starter at market value. What is the worst case scenario? You pay a swing-man #1 or #2 money. I believe under the new system the risk completly outweighs the reward. Fixed.
|
|
|
Post by buffs4444 on Dec 17, 2013 22:23:07 GMT -5
Reminds me of watching House Hunters International and hearing the term "key money" for the first time. Not that Japan is alone on this, here we just call it a shakedown..... Tanaka's going to be interesting to watch, but still too rich for my blood.
|
|
|
Post by joshv02 on Dec 17, 2013 23:46:49 GMT -5
Badler via Twitter also said that "under the table payments" are illegal, but happen in MLB. He wasn't offering evidence, but then again, 140 characters, and that's a rumbling that's been out there for years. Then again, you had an official MLB investigator offering a brown paper bag with more than $100K cash for some of ARod's records, so…. Search for articles about Jose Rijo.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 18, 2013 0:29:13 GMT -5
Reminds me of watching House Hunters International and hearing the term "key money" for the first time. Not that Japan is alone on this, here we just call it a shakedown..... Tanaka's going to be interesting to watch, but still too rich for my blood Just as the Inuit have many words for snow because of the importance it has in their lives, we here in the warmer latitudes have a rainbow of terms for this sort of thing, and for the same reason: vigorish, the take, the cut, juice; in the Middle East and Asia it's called backshish... and on and on and on it goes! Folks this isn't a very recent innovation in human relations.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 18, 2013 6:05:06 GMT -5
Does anyone want to make a bet that one of Anthony Ranaudo/Matt Barns/Alan Webster/Brandon Workman will be a better pitcher over the next 6 years than Tanaka at a fraction of the cost? I'd extend Lester for 6/100 before I'd give it to Tanaka. Sure you would, but the chances of Lester accepting it are slim. Look at how much free agent pitchers (very mediocre to bad ones) are getting. I mean Colon, is a 40 year old whose has been suspended for juicing. A certain pitcher who was in independent ball recently got a twenty million dollar contract (Kazmir). Lester is going to get massively overpaid next offseason if he has a decent year. If he doesn't have a decent year, he still will be overpaid.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 18, 2013 6:26:03 GMT -5
We have substantial starting pitching currency. We should hold onto it tightly, but when the deal is right cash it in because we should absolutely be in win now mode. If Kazmir is worth $20 mil, isn't Dempster worth something significant also? At least in cash value, if not in prospects.
|
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,536
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2013 8:35:14 GMT -5
If a team wants to pay Tanaka 20m in AAV, then go for it. Might be the most reckless spending in baseball history though.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Dec 18, 2013 8:36:42 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Dec 18, 2013 9:12:08 GMT -5
I mentioned the risk of Tanaka transitioning from the NPB to the Majors in my first post and then I again hinted towards the difficulty of projecting Tanaka in my second post. I am labeling Tanaka as either a #2or#3 based on what talent evaluators and scouts have said and that earlier tidbit from Spier. That is only information we have to go on, unless you are inclined to trust davenport translations - which show Tanaka as legitimate #2. So yeah, the fact that most evaluators have him pegged as a #2 or #3 starter and because the Davenport translations support those claims, that is the assumption that I am working with. Is there risk? Of course. Could the transition be more difficult to him than say Darvish or Kuroda? Possibly. But is there any really compelling reason to not trust the scouts ? Not really. Let's hope he doesn't discover McDonalds like Dice-K did. Already did. .
|
|
|