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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2013 13:12:51 GMT -5
Its not a gamble at all. Outside of a bus hit or a fatal spicy tuna roll, what type of injury keeps all mlb teams from the 20 million posting fee? Even tommy john wouldn't prevent the full posting fee. the only thing a baseball injury hurts is the actual dough to Tanaka. Tommy John absolutely would keep anyone from paying the posting fee. He's a free agent in two seasons. Who would bid for the right to pay him while he rehabs instead of waiting a year?
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 19, 2013 13:17:14 GMT -5
It is really in Rakuten (and the Red Sox) best interest to keep him another year. Get another young year of the top starting pitcher, and still make 20M next year. Really the new agreement that looked originally to benefit Tanaka might end up hurting him, although I do think an open market next year will reach a bigger contract than an exclusive market this year.
Anyone else get the sense that the 20M posting fee is a temporary fix until the new CBA? Rakuten ownership seems pretty distraught about the change, and I get the sense the small market teams really pushed for this system as everyone expectrf Yankees to post a huge bid that wouldn't be counted against the luxury tax.
I'd be very happy if Tanak doesn't get posted. Puts us in the running next year and more trade value on one of our starters.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 14:05:11 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 19, 2013 16:25:52 GMT -5
Its not a gamble at all. Outside of a bus hit or a fatal spicy tuna roll, what type of injury keeps all mlb teams from the 20 million posting fee? Even tommy john wouldn't prevent the full posting fee. the only thing a baseball injury hurts is the actual dough to Tanaka. Tommy John absolutely would keep anyone from paying the posting fee. He's a free agent in two seasons. Who would bid for the right to pay him while he rehabs instead of waiting a year? Honestly not sure I'd agree. He'd come with the six years of team control unless his contract had special language otherwise. Considering the success rate of TJ recoveries at this point, it might make sense to pay the $20 million posting to have him rehab for a year, considering how high the potential reward would be over the next five, and how much lower the cost would be than if he'd stayed healthy. And if the bidding gets out of a comfortable range, a team isn't out the $20 million.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 19, 2013 20:03:20 GMT -5
Sure teams would post it, but if he's unsignable the team loses out. Tanaka won't sign a below market deal for the long term if he's injured and a team won't sign him for huge dollars while recovering from TJS. So quibble about the technicality of if teams will post the 20m all you want, but just because it's posted doesn't mean it's paid. Hence the risk.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 20, 2013 7:25:39 GMT -5
Sure, there's some risk, but my point is that $20 million just isn't enough to make the risk all that high. It's unlikely that Tanaka will blow out his elbow or his shoulder next year. The small risk of that is more important if the posting fee would be something like $60 million, but it's not as important a factor at $20 million. His team now has to weigh the economic benefit of keeping him another year against the risk of losing whatever posting fee there is. So, making up a number here, but say a 5% risk of losing the fee due to injury would mean it's essentially a $1 million bet in your accounting ... which is more than offset by the economic gain from keeping him. Hell, they could probably insure him through Lloyds or something like that and make the cost a fixed variable and come out ahead.
I'm making up numbers here, but I gotta believe that keeping him for a year is worth quite a bit more than the downside risk of injury.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 20, 2013 9:35:57 GMT -5
If Tanaka were a free agent, would you be willing to give him one year, $5 million, with $20 million in incentives? I think nearly everyone would. That's essentially what Rakuten would be doing if they don't post him this year, except for instead of the $20 mil being in incentives, it's $20 million in risk if he has a major injury.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 20, 2013 10:50:12 GMT -5
If this guy is off the market then the price went up on Lackey, Peavy, Dempster.
Personally I can see these guys doing good in the NL. They are in there contract years and only one year commitment. How could a team not bite on one of these. I give you an example the Pirates have a good relationship with the Sox. Why on earth do you commit 5 million on Volquez? Why not call the Sox try to get one of these guys for you young rotation. I mean we just won a title. Blows my mind. I know the money is more but you can make adjustments. It's just a one year commitment.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 20, 2013 11:47:24 GMT -5
CJ Nitkowski ?@cjnitkowski 9m Eagles say report on them not posting Tanaka is false. Still undecided. Official resolution in 3-5 days.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 20, 2013 12:51:12 GMT -5
Sure, there's some risk, but my point is that $20 million just isn't enough to make the risk all that high. It's unlikely that Tanaka will blow out his elbow or his shoulder next year. The small risk of that is more important if the posting fee would be something like $60 million, but it's not as important a factor at $20 million. His team now has to weigh the economic benefit of keeping him another year against the risk of losing whatever posting fee there is. So, making up a number here, but say a 5% risk of losing the fee due to injury would mean it's essentially a $1 million bet in your accounting ... which is more than offset by the economic gain from keeping him. Hell, they could probably insure him through Lloyds or something like that and make the cost a fixed variable and come out ahead. I'm making up numbers here, but I gotta believe that keeping him for a year is worth quite a bit more than the downside risk of injury. I was bored and ran down all the salaries for Tanaka's team in Japan and converted to US $$ and the total team payroll for last year was about $17.1 million... so $20 million to that league is much more than one would think... especially since his team over there is considered a small market team. This is all about shaking down the league over there because all the teams said they would chip in money to put the posting fee over $20 million so they don't have to face Tanaka anymore in games.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 20, 2013 12:56:06 GMT -5
CJ Nitkowski ?@cjnitkowski 9m Eagles say report on them not posting Tanaka is false. Still undecided. Official resolution in 3-5 days. Told ya. But I also don't necessarily buy that this is over within a week.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 20, 2013 13:13:42 GMT -5
Start looking for some of Tanaka's teammamtes to be posted first. Tanaka is going to be signed before he's posted so that's what is taking so long. This is one corrupt bunch of crap.
Just my opinion of course.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 20, 2013 14:06:40 GMT -5
Start looking for some of Tanaka's teammamtes to be posted first. Tanaka is going to be signed before he's posted so that's what is taking so long. This is one corrupt bunch of crap. Just my opinion of course. The twitter feed from Patrick Newman shows that Rakuten is going to acquire Youkilis, so that crap may have pinstripes on it.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 20, 2013 14:14:38 GMT -5
Maybe Rakuten is flushed with money to pay players, now.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 20, 2013 15:11:03 GMT -5
Start looking for some of Tanaka's teammamtes to be posted first. Tanaka is going to be signed before he's posted so that's what is taking so long. This is one corrupt bunch of crap. Just my opinion of course. The twitter feed from Patrick Newman shows that Rakuten is going to acquire Youkilis, so that crap may have pinstripes on it. Youk isn't a Yankee though. He was a FA since he signed a one year deal with them. So I don't think this is a Backdoor thing with the Yankees and Japan. Unless I'm misreading your post
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 20, 2013 16:18:59 GMT -5
The twitter feed from Patrick Newman shows that Rakuten is going to acquire Youkilis, so that crap may have pinstripes on it. Youk isn't a Yankee though. He was a FA since he signed a one year deal with them. So I don't think this is a Backdoor thing with the Yankees and Japan. Unless I'm misreading your post Actually, could Rakuten sign Youkilis and then post him and have the Yankees pay 40 million for Youkilis and Tanaka and cause my head to explode?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2013 17:08:56 GMT -5
They could do this and then post him and have Boston pay them $40M and have Youk for back-up to 1st and 3rd, as well as a RH bat off the bench. Just sayin...
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Post by bjb406 on Dec 20, 2013 17:23:54 GMT -5
no, because the posting team doesnt get to pick which team he goes to. If 5 teams each put up a bid of 20 million, then each of them an negotiate with the player, not just the team that also bid for some other player.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 20, 2013 18:13:50 GMT -5
no, because the posting team doesnt get to pick which team he goes to. If 5 teams each put up a bid of 20 million, then each of them an negotiate with the player, not just the team that also bid for some other player. Does if it is already setup in advance like what Badler was talking. That seems to be the theme anyway.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 20, 2013 22:29:18 GMT -5
If Tanaka wants to leave so badly why doesn't he just make a side deal with his team and whatever contract he agrees to he slides them 15% on top of the 20million there getting.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 21, 2013 7:34:27 GMT -5
Sure, there's some risk, but my point is that $20 million just isn't enough to make the risk all that high. It's unlikely that Tanaka will blow out his elbow or his shoulder next year. The small risk of that is more important if the posting fee would be something like $60 million, but it's not as important a factor at $20 million. His team now has to weigh the economic benefit of keeping him another year against the risk of losing whatever posting fee there is. So, making up a number here, but say a 5% risk of losing the fee due to injury would mean it's essentially a $1 million bet in your accounting ... which is more than offset by the economic gain from keeping him. Hell, they could probably insure him through Lloyds or something like that and make the cost a fixed variable and come out ahead. I'm making up numbers here, but I gotta believe that keeping him for a year is worth quite a bit more than the downside risk of injury. I was bored and ran down all the salaries for Tanaka's team in Japan and converted to US $$ and the total team payroll for last year was about $17.1 million... so $20 million to that league is much more than one would think... especially since his team over there is considered a small market team. This is all about shaking down the league over there because all the teams said they would chip in money to put the posting fee over $20 million so they don't have to face Tanaka anymore in games. Well, it's not a choice of $20 million vs $0, it's a choice between [$20 million now] - [whatever economic benefit you get from him this year] vs [$20 million in a year] - [the risk he gets hurt]. So it's really [economic benefit this year] vs [risk he gets hurt]. Which of this is greater? BUT, all of that is in a vacuum. The atmospherics of this do make me think there are a lot of other factors at play, that Rakuten is playing at something ... not sure about the shakedown (you have a link?) or under-the-table payments, but the latter is certainly plausible in the world of international sports (FIFA!). And we really don't know the situation between Tanaka and the team ...
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 21, 2013 10:29:00 GMT -5
Rakuten also has to think about the potential PR hit they could take by not posting a player they already agreed to post and who really wants to be posted.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 21, 2013 11:05:36 GMT -5
no, because the posting team doesnt get to pick which team he goes to. If 5 teams each put up a bid of 20 million, then each of them an negotiate with the player, not just the team that also bid for some other player. It only works if the team paying $20 mil for Youkilis is certain that they can sign Tanaka. Since the contract is no longer a 'blind bid' format - the Yankees can simply offer to top the next highest contract by $5 mil. (of course Tanaka's agent could create a 'fake' offer - but either way the Yankees would get their guy)
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2013 11:35:52 GMT -5
Rakuten also has to think about the potential PR hit they could take by not posting a player they already agreed to post and who really wants to be posted. While this is true, it's far from determinative. After all, there are certain NPB teams like the Yomiuri Giants that just categorically refuse to post their players (Uehara was one Yomiuri player who had publicly asked to be posted, Yomiuri refused, and the whole thing blew over). The PR hit will also be dampened by the fact that Japanese players generally don't "hold out" or make a fuss in the media when they don't get their way. Tanaka has already been on record stating that "If the team tells me, 'We're not going to post you. Please stay,' the professional thing to do is give it your all and get back to pitching. I'm ready to do that." Similarly, when it became clear Uehara wasn't posted, he stopped talking about it and didn't try to use the media as leverage.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 21, 2013 11:40:43 GMT -5
Rakuten also has to think about the potential PR hit they could take by not posting a player they already agreed to post and who really wants to be posted. There wouldn't be a PR hit. Why would Rakuten fans be upset that their best player is around for another year?
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