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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by bluechip on Dec 25, 2013 15:11:40 GMT -5
So much is unknown about tanaka that to compare him to Bailey is unfair to Bailey. I liken it to NFL draft prospects. All the way up to the draft we hear about how good a player is. Then once he's drafted you start to hear all the things that are wrong. Tanaka is the prospect where it's all roses. Bailey is the drafted player where all the warts are out. The focus shifts. True that my man, comparing him to Homer Bailey is not better than saying he is the next Kei Igawa. He's a relatively unknown quality, he doesn't have the undeniable physical tools of Darvish neither the myth surrounding Dice-BB. Plus, given the team's starting pitching situation, I can't see how the Red Sox don't pass on this one. They did a lot on miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (though obviously not as much as Tanaka will cost), so I wouldn't be shocked if they posted 20 million just test the market on Tanaka. Besides, while there is a lot of depth in the minors, Peavy, Dempster, Lackey, and Lester are all getting older and on short term deals.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 25, 2013 15:27:15 GMT -5
Looks like Tellem is his agent. If true, I would think the dodgers are out(he tried to buy them and lost out to magic). That would make him a pretty bad businessman and an even worse agent. Exactly. Highly doubt dodgers are out
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 25, 2013 16:11:25 GMT -5
That would make him a pretty bad businessman and an even worse agent. Exactly. Highly doubt dodgers are out Tanaka's agent will be Casey Close, reportedly.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 25, 2013 18:55:24 GMT -5
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
The Dodgers seem to get it. Look at the relievers they are stock piling.
It's really a shame we are so close to the luxury tax limit. We could still trade Peavy or Dempster or concievably even both if need be but the chances are very remote that happens.
I do think the Redsox at least consider this option though, and play in it up to a point. The Cubs may well be in on this as well. Our more likely scenario is we hope Peavy has a strong season and we get a pick when he leaves.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 25, 2013 19:38:26 GMT -5
The Sox have both the short and long term budgetary flexibility to sign Tanaka at any number he's likely to get.
The only question is whether they think he's worth whatever it will take considering the alternatives, and whether Tanaka is amenable to signing with the Sox vs. a team with a competing offer.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 25, 2013 20:20:52 GMT -5
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching! The Dodgers seem to get it. Look at the relievers they are stock piling. It's really a shame we are so close to the luxury tax limit. We could still trade Peavy or Dempster or concievably even both if need be but the chances are very remote that happens. I do think the Redsox at least consider this option though, and play in it up to a point. The Cubs may well be in on this as well. Our more likely scenario is we hope Peavy has a strong season and we get a pick when he leaves.1. After unloading the big three and their salaries to L.A,. it seemed that we would have more flexibility than we do. Unfortunately math is not our friend. 2. I don't see Peavy being even as good as he was this year for the Sox. With his arm injury(ies), he is now a highly competitive journeyman. He will never have more motivation than he had last year. and I am glad that he got his ring. I suspect that we are stuck with him and Dempster unless we suck up large portions of salary. Obviously jettisoning both favorably would put us in a prime situation for Tanaka. But the clock is running with Tanaka likely to sign in the next 30 days. Timing is everything. Our guys are not primo for other teams and even if we can get them gone, it will likely be too late for the Tanaka sweepstakes. We are not the Yankees in money or desperation. Worst case scenario for me is the Yanks sign Tanaka, Sabbathia returns to form, Nova continues to progress, Kuroda gets a bit more rest and Pineda is finally healthy. With the additions of Ells, Beltran, McCann & the return of Texiera.......and if Drew signs as 3B and occasional SS....YIKES!
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Post by anthonyws2013 on Dec 25, 2013 20:43:19 GMT -5
Looking at the variety of scouting reports on Tanaka, it seems like he's destined to be a solid major league starter whose ceiling is a 2 and his floor is a 4. Seeing as though the entire free agent market for pitchers has been put on hold until this situation revolving around Tanaka was resolved. With that being said, its going to take 6 years and over 100 million to lock down his services. The market has been frozen waiting for this guy to become posted so he's is going to be a hot commodity with most every team posting the doable 20 million posting fee. So paying 15-20 million a year for 6 years for an unknown player that is being marked up as a potential number 2 but more realistically a number 3. This is what the Red Sox have at a surplus, middle of the rotation arms are what the Sox are drawing from. They have Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Clay Bucholtz, and Felix Doubrount, all capable of being at least a 3 on a top division team. As well the Red Sox have one of the brighest farm systems in the game having the most major league ready players in the minors ready to contribute. Matt Barmes, Anthony Raunado, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens are all projected as 3-4 in a rotation as a floor. This is by far the area on this team that is of strength and there is no need to get into a bidding war for just another addition. I agree with the statement that you can't have enough pitching, but adding another 2-3 rotation arm isn't where they should allocate that money they need an ace and should trade from their minor league depth at mid rotation starters.
My only hiccup in not going after Tanaka is that it would be tough to see him go to the Yankees and help shape that rotation out. At all costs try to avoid him going their because he will help the team he goes to, I just think the money out weighs the help he could provide to the Red Sox.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 25, 2013 20:46:29 GMT -5
Let's extend Lester before we spend 20m per on an unknown.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 25, 2013 21:07:38 GMT -5
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching! The Dodgers seem to get it. Look at the relievers they are stock piling. It's really a shame we are so close to the luxury tax limit. We could still trade Peavy or Dempster or concievably even both if need be but the chances are very remote that happens. I do think the Redsox at least consider this option though, and play in it up to a point. The Cubs may well be in on this as well. Our more likely scenario is we hope Peavy has a strong season and we get a pick when he leaves.1. After unloading the big three and their salaries to L.A,. it seemed that we would have more flexibility than we do. Unfortunately math is not our friend. 2. I don't see Peavy being even as good as he was this year for the Sox. With his arm injury(ies), he is now a highly competitive journeyman. He will never have more motivation than he had last year. and I am glad that he got his ring. I suspect that we are stuck with him and Dempster unless we suck up large portions of salary. Obviously jettisoning both favorably would put us in a prime situation for Tanaka. But the clock is running with Tanaka likely to sign in the next 30 days. Timing is everything. Our guys are not primo for other teams and even if we can get them gone, it will likely be too late for the Tanaka sweepstakes. We are not the Yankees in money or desperation. Worst case scenario for me is the Yanks sign Tanaka, Sabbathia returns to form, Nova continues to progress, Kuroda gets a bit more rest and Pineda is finally healthy. With the additions of Ells, Beltran, McCann & the return of Texiera.......and if Drew signs as 3B and occasional SS....YIKES! The Red Sox have a tremendous amount of flexibility and a large part of that is due to the Dodgers trade. They have very few if any contracts that would be difficult to move. At quick glance, the only player that is paid more than their expected value is probably Dempster. That is the definition of flexibility. No one ever said making that trade would suddenly allow the team to have unlimited funds and sign everyone. It made it so they could add and subtract players as they see fit to build a team that can compete every year without being bogged down with dead money. I'm not sure where you came to the conclusion that Peavy is a "highly competitive journeyman". He was a 2.4 fWAR player last year in 144 innings a season after putting up 4.4 fWAR. He's been very good for most of the last decade - the issue is just how much he can pitch. I don't see any reason to project his for less than he pitched last year. With our starting depth, getting 2.5 wins from 144 innings is very solid. I also don't think there is any reason to believe his value has changed substantially from when we acquired him (outside of having him for 1 year instead of 1.3 years), so I certainly don't agree with the "we're stuck with him" comment. As for Tanaka - we'll have to see what happens, but my gut says it isn't worth the money it would take to sign him. I'm not sold he'll be more than a 2-3 WAR player and that is right about where our bottom two starters project to be. Add in the 6 year/$100M+ contract and $20M posting fee and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. He could end up be great and we'll all look back and wish we signed him, but I think it is far from a sure thing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 25, 2013 21:31:55 GMT -5
Tanaka ain't coming to town.
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Post by marc10922 on Dec 25, 2013 22:35:48 GMT -5
Hi, new poster here. But if I was in charge I would do whatever it takes to get Tanaka for three reasons.
1) You get a pitcher with a ceiling of a #2 starter who is young and entering the prime of his pitching years. He could still turn into a #3 but with the market the way it is you would probably be paying the same for a pitcher at his age and upside. And that kind of high upside opportunity does not present itself on a regular basis.
2) By taking Tanaka off the market you enhance the value of the pitchers you have in surplus. All of a sudden with Tanaka gone, there will be at least one extra team looking to trade for your Lackey, Dubront, Peavy, or Dempster thus helping you to get a better return for one or two of your starting pitching surplus.
3) You cripple the Yankees starting pitching for another year taking them out of contention and leaving you to fend off the Rays for the AL East.
I would personally trade two of my starting pitchers between Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster and would use the extra money to sign Lester long term. I wouldn't mind rolling out Lester, Buch, Tanaka, Dubront, and Dempster every five days while I rely on my minor league depth to fill in any gaps caused by injury. And all you give up is 20 mil. on a posting fee.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 26, 2013 2:57:07 GMT -5
Hi, new poster here. But if I was in charge I would do whatever it takes to get Tanaka for three reasons. 1) You get a pitcher with a ceiling of a #2 starter who is young and entering the prime of his pitching years. He could still turn into a #3 but with the market the way it is you would probably be paying the same for a pitcher at his age and upside. And that kind of high upside opportunity does not present itself on a regular basis. 2) By taking Tanaka off the market you enhance the value of the pitchers you have in surplus. All of a sudden with Tanaka gone, there will be at least one extra team looking to trade for your Lackey, Dubront, Peavy, or Dempster thus helping you to get a better return for one or two of your starting pitching surplus. 3) You cripple the Yankees starting pitching for another year taking them out of contention and leaving you to fend off the Rays for the AL East. I would personally trade two of my starting pitchers between Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster and would use the extra money to sign Lester long term. I wouldn't mind rolling out Lester, Buch, Tanaka, Dubront, and Dempster every five days while I rely on my minor league depth to fill in any gaps caused by injury. And all you give up is 20 mil. on a posting fee. Hello Marc10992 - welcome to the forum and Merry Christmas! I'm going to have to disagree with your first point as Kershaw, Scherzer, Bailey and Shields are all free agents next year (for now) and will likely be as good, or better, than Tanaka based on the scouting reports. I get your point as far as the age goes - US players simply don't become free agents at 25. I'm a little worried about a focus on stopping the Yankees and THEN fending off the Rays, as the Rays currently look to be the superior team of the two (probably still will be even if the Yankees get Tanaka). The big question here would be: How much should they offer Tanaka? The 20 mil post seems like a no brainer - but after that I would be afraid of getting into a bidding war when the Red Sox are deep at SP and there will be a rich SP market in 2014. But you never know, maybe he has seen the success of other Japanese players with the Red Sox and will be willing to turn down money to sign here - can always hope. (Tazawa turned down money - so it may be possible)
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 26, 2013 8:27:23 GMT -5
Tanaka will not be coming to Boston anytime soon. I expect that the Sox will post for him for appearances sake and in the wildly off-chance that there are no huge bidders. They just won the World Series, have a suitable, not great, rotation, seriously want to stay under $189M unlike the Yankees, do not have Yankees' money, are not desparate, do not have fan and media pressure as in N.Y. and have something of a stable (unknown for sure) of minor league pitchers. The only one whose stuff I have been very impressed with is Webster, and his make-up and control have been questioned.
My gut, not stats, says that Peavy will not be as good. Maybe Lackey will be. Dempster is pretty much a known quantity. We may free up some cash by trading one or more of those pitchers before the spring. It just doesn't appear that it will happen in time to be serious on Tanaka.
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Post by radatz17 on Dec 26, 2013 9:05:31 GMT -5
Not so sure he is not coming to Boston. Would expect Sox to make a competitive bid for Tanaka. Besides keeping him away from Yanks, he is just what the Sox like at 25 entering prime years, as was Daiske, where we came out of nowhere to win the bid. when they sign him, they would make the adjustments in terms of trades. not sure that signing Tanaka would up the value or diminish the value of Peavy, Dempster, and on the outside Lackey as other teams might see the Red Sox as desperate to trade.
Red Sox have been relatively quiet in off-season and may have been laying in wait ready to pounce on Tanaka?
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 26, 2013 10:47:56 GMT -5
Kansas City is still my darkhorse. Kidding, right?
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Post by jmei on Dec 26, 2013 11:17:31 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 26, 2013 11:20:28 GMT -5
Nope. They supposedly have the money, and are probably a starting pitcher away. They have almost no guaranteed money in long term deals (less than $19 million in 2016), so they have the flexibility for an "overpay" as it were. I'm not saying he'll end up there, but I think they'll be serious players in the bidding.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 26, 2013 11:41:52 GMT -5
Nope. They supposedly have the money, and are probably a starting pitcher away. They have almost no guaranteed money in long term deals (less than $19 million in 2016), so they have the flexibility for an "overpay" as it were. I'm not saying he'll end up there, but I think they'll be serious players in the bidding. If you are a player of Tanaka's ability and reputation and you want to test yourself on the highest stage, do you go to Kansas City? Probably not unless your DNA matches Cano's. The Yankees are NOT going to be outbid in any case. This is as much a done deal as I can imagine. They will then have an entire 5 man rotation whose last name ends in "a". Seems like karma. I'm saving myself the emotional angst and energy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 26, 2013 11:52:22 GMT -5
Nope. They supposedly have the money, and are probably a starting pitcher away. They have almost no guaranteed money in long term deals (less than $19 million in 2016), so they have the flexibility for an "overpay" as it were. I'm not saying he'll end up there, but I think they'll be serious players in the bidding. If you are a player of Tanaka's ability and reputation and you want to test yourself on the highest stage, do you go to Kansas City? Probably not unless your DNA matches Cano's. The Yankees are NOT going to be outbid in any case. This is as much a done deal as I can imagine. They will then have an entire 5 man rotation whose last name ends in "a". Seems like karma. I'm saving myself the emotional angst and energy. There's an argument to be made that if you're looking to win, KC is a better destination than the Bronx, for one example.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 26, 2013 12:04:04 GMT -5
It would be great if Seattle stole him.
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Post by jmei on Dec 26, 2013 12:15:23 GMT -5
Tangential note: the continued little brother syndrome is very unbecoming of Red Sox fans. Even with Tanaka, the Yankees are a marginal playoff team with a weak farm system and very little young talent. I'm on the younger side of things, so maybe the Yankee insecurity isn't as deeply ingrained for me, but I'd be far more concerned about Tanaka landing with the Rangers or the Tigers or even the Angels or the Royals.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 26, 2013 12:18:06 GMT -5
Nope. They supposedly have the money, and are probably a starting pitcher away. They have almost no guaranteed money in long term deals (less than $19 million in 2016), so they have the flexibility for an "overpay" as it were. I'm not saying he'll end up there, but I think they'll be serious players in the bidding. If you are a player of Tanaka's ability and reputation and you want to test yourself on the highest stage, do you go to Kansas City? Probably not unless your DNA matches Cano's. The Yankees are NOT going to be outbid in any case. This is as much a done deal as I can imagine. They will then have an entire 5 man rotation whose last name ends in "a". Seems like karma. I'm saving myself the emotional angst and energy. The Yankees were just outbid by KC for Infante, and they actually wanted and needed him after they were outbid on Cano. There's something strange going on in New York.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 26, 2013 12:21:26 GMT -5
If you are a player of Tanaka's ability and reputation and you want to test yourself on the highest stage, do you go to Kansas City? Probably not unless your DNA matches Cano's. The Yankees are NOT going to be outbid in any case. This is as much a done deal as I can imagine. They will then have an entire 5 man rotation whose last name ends in "a". Seems like karma. I'm saving myself the emotional angst and energy. There's an argument to be made that if you're looking to win, KC is a better destination than the Bronx, for one example. I envision Japanese people to be very prideful and respectful not only to each other but to the game of baseball as well. They seem to have a great deal of reverence. I am not sure Tanaka san is very much aware of K.C. in the U.S. baseball annals. I strongly suspect that he signs with a team that has a rich baseball tradition. It also appears that his chosen agent represents some other Yankee players. nypost.com/2013/12/25/yankees-pursuit-of-tanaka-begins-thursday/
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Post by Guidas on Dec 26, 2013 12:40:23 GMT -5
If you are a player of Tanaka's ability and reputation and you want to test yourself on the highest stage, do you go to Kansas City? Probably not unless your DNA matches Cano's. The Yankees are NOT going to be outbid in any case. This is as much a done deal as I can imagine. They will then have an entire 5 man rotation whose last name ends in "a". Seems like karma. I'm saving myself the emotional angst and energy. The Yankees were just outbid by KC for Infante, and they actually wanted and needed him after they were outbid on Cano. There's something strange going on in New York. I still contend they are getting ready to sell and that the other 3 Steinbrenner siblings are pressuring Hal to cash out.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 26, 2013 12:42:45 GMT -5
There's an argument to be made that if you're looking to win, KC is a better destination than the Bronx, for one example. I envision Japanese people to be very prideful and respectful not only to each other but to the game of baseball as well. They seem to have a great deal of reverence. I am not sure Tanaka san is very much aware of K.C. in the U.S. baseball annals. I strongly suspect that he signs with a team that has a rich baseball tradition. It also appears that his chosen agent represents some other Yankee players. nypost.com/2013/12/25/yankees-pursuit-of-tanaka-begins-thursday/I think he signs with whomever offers him the most money, regardless of their tradition. It's all the majors. If it's a tie/near tie in dollars, Close will try to steer him to the market with the most opportunities for endorsement dollars as agents tend to reap 25% of those deals vs. 10% on the MLB contract.
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