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8/27 ML Gameday Thread: DSL Game 2; Owens for the Dogs
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 27, 2013 7:08:10 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 27, 2013 7:43:56 GMT -5
Playoff status:
Pawtucket (3.5 game lead for division/3.0 game lead for wild card spot, 7 games left)
Portland (4.0 games back of wild card spot, 8 games left)
Salem (3.5 game lead for 2nd half division/6.0 game lead for 2nd playoff spot, 7 games left)
Greenville (eliminated from playoff contention)
Lowell (4.0 games back for division, 9 games left)
GCL (clinched division)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 7:48:25 GMT -5
I did this last night, so I'm going to post it in here anyway, even though Amfox has adequately given you all the info.
Yesterday: PawSox walked off, Portland won't die, Salem won in extras and can clinch tonight, Lowell continued to skid, and of course, the GCL Sox clinched.
Entering today (Teams in BoldItalics have clinched a playoff spot. Teams in Bold would make playoffs if season ended today.)
Pawtucket, 75-61, 7 games remaining: 1 vs. SWB, 4 vs. Syracuse, 2 @ Lehigh Valley
IL North: 1st place, 3.5 GA of Rochester
(IL Wild Card: 3.0 GA of Norfolk)
Portland, 65-69, 8 games remaining: 3 @ NH, 5 vs. Trenton
EL Eastern, 2nd place: 3rd place, 4.0 GB of Trenton (1.0 GB of NH)
Salem, 37-26 2nd half, 70-63 overall, 7 games remaining: 4 vs. Frederick, 3 vs. Lynchburg (Magic #: 2)
CarL Southern, 2nd half: 1st place, 3.5 GA of Myrtle Beach
CarL Southern, 2nd half, 2nd place*: 1st place, 6.0 GA of Carolina
* = If Myrtle Beach wins Southern Division again, next-best second-half record makes playoffs
Lowell, 35-29, 9 games remaining: 2 vs. Aberdeen, 1 vs. Connecticut, 1 @ Connecticut, 2 vs. Tri-City, 3 @ Aberdeen
NYPL Stedler: 2nd place, 4.0 GB of Tri-City
NYPL Wild Card: 2nd place, 4.0 GB of Jamestown
GCL Red Sox, 33-24, 3 games remaining, clinched GCL South
Presently 3rd seed. Would play GCL Yankees2 in the one-game playoff as of right now. (By the way, the GCL Nationals are 48-9. That's kinda nuts. .842 winning pct.)
DSL Red Sox, Clinched 1st place, Boca Chica NW
Lead Giants, 1-0
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2013 7:51:35 GMT -5
It's worth noting that all of Portland's remaining games are against teams they are chasing - three in NH, then five at home against Trenton.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 7:54:36 GMT -5
It's worth noting that all of Portland's remaining games are against teams they are chasing - three in NH, then five at home against Trenton. Good idea. |
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 27, 2013 10:02:41 GMT -5
For Portland, theyll have to win 4/5 for sure against Trenton to have a chance, so theyll need to make up one game before that series. 2/3 against NH gets them tied with NH, but would mean they need Trenton to lose 2/3.
If Trenton can win two games before the Portland series, the Sea Dogs will need a 5 game sweep to get the spot.
On the other hand, hopefully a 4-1 series can get a tie and is enough to get them the head to ead tiebreaker.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 27, 2013 10:35:54 GMT -5
DSL Sox leading 6-1 in the top of the 3rd.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 10:36:37 GMT -5
FWIW, first EL tiebreaker is head-to-head record. To date:
vs. Trenton: 9-7, so it's probably impossible for them to make the playoffs without having this tiebreaker.
vs. NH: 11-10 after last night's win
Next tiebreaker is runs. After last night, it's Portland 107, NH 91. Barring a major meltdown, Portland likely takes this one.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 10:40:47 GMT -5
DSL Sox leading 6-1 in the top of the 3rd. Luis Ramos actually getting the start for the DSL in a bit of a surprise, although you could certainly argue that he's been their second-best starter (lowest starter WHIP, lowest starter OPS, among other stats including a sick K/BB). I'd have guessed Almonte, although maybe they want him for either the potential Game 3 or Game 1 of the next series. Giants starter only recorded one out. |
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 27, 2013 15:08:40 GMT -5
GCL wins, GCL Yankees2 loses, so the Red Sox are one game behind with two to go. The GCL Red Sox can only finish as the #2 or #3 seed. WAS has clinched the #1 seed and PIT has clinched the #4 seed.
If the Red Sox and Yankees2 finish with the same record, to determine the playoff seeding between separate division winners, (no game would be played), they would look at the following:
1. Average runs allowed per game
2. Average runs scored per game
3. Best run differential
The Red Sox would win the first tiebreaker (3.53 vs. 3.86), which is good because they would lose the other two tiebreakers. The winner gets to host the first round one-game playoff.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 27, 2013 15:13:11 GMT -5
Went to the GCL game and was quite impressed with Jalen Williams. Watched him warm-up in the pen before the game also. Love his frame and mechanics. This is a kid we need to keep and eye on. Of course I have no idea about his work ethic but I do like what I saw today. Explosive fastball and a decent feel for his breaking stuff. He is quite athletic and seems to repeat his delivery well.
Rigo really stroked that double into left center over the head of the left fielder and made a couple of nice defensive plays. And my personal favorite, Monge, hit the ball hard. This has been a very interesting GCL team to follow this season. There is some real potential with these guys. Several of them will become top 20 - 30 prospects (eventually).
Looking forward to several of those DSL pitchers coming up next season.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 27, 2013 19:18:33 GMT -5
Hank Owens, still pretty unhittable, but this time able to find the plate. Through 4, given up two singles and a walk.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 27, 2013 19:25:23 GMT -5
Hank Owens, still pretty unhittable, but this time able to find the plate. Through 4, given up two singles and a walk. Yes, good to see that his one-game meltdown was just that. Interesting that the Sox got him back on the 5-day schedule. So he could pitch the season finale maybe, given that a 1 inning stint hardly affected his innings total. |
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Post by lennsakata on Aug 27, 2013 20:02:04 GMT -5
Hudson has had my attention all season with his consistentcy, athleticism and nice frame. That being said Dubon looks like a guy some teams would be kicking themselves on. An athletic HS short stop with a good track record (not sure the level of competition but assuming since its CA it's good), great build with room for projection and no college committment...seems like a guy teams would love to nab for signability reasons, no bonus pool splash and good upside/present skills.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 27, 2013 20:52:45 GMT -5
Hudson has had my attention all season with his consistentcy, athleticism and nice frame. That being said Dubon looks like a guy some teams would be kicking themselves on. An athletic HS short stop with a good track record (not sure the level of competition but assuming since its CA it's good), great build with room for projection and no college committment...seems like a guy teams would love to nab for signability reasons, no bonus pool splash and good upside/present skills. The level of competition isn't that high. His high school is in the same section as mine. EDIT: I've played his school in other sports, just not baseball. But there definitely was someone named Mauricio on their soccer team |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 27, 2013 21:31:19 GMT -5
Assuming a normal last start for Owens, he'll end up with about 135 IP this year. He threw 97 pitches tonight near the end of the season. Although 21, this is his age 20 season. That squarely puts him in line for a full season major league workload in 2015, his age 22 season.
Hopefully, Henry will be given a map to API this coming off season. Henry has had a memorable season, Henry & protein shakes, hmmmmm.
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Post by onbase on Aug 27, 2013 21:45:00 GMT -5
Assuming a normal last start for Owens, he'll end up with about 135 IP this year. He threw 97 pitches tonight near the end of the season. Although 21, this is his age 20 season. That squarely puts him in line for a full season major league workload in 2015, his age 22 season. Hopefully, Henry will be given a map to API this coming off season. Henry has had a memorable season, Henry & protein shakes, hmmmmm. I kind of like Henry just the way I saw him tonight. He looked better and better as the game progressed, was taken out after two quick, easy outs in the 7th and looked like he was just warming up. |
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 27, 2013 22:06:17 GMT -5
My counter to some of the Owens talk... When we first got Andrew Miller I kept dreaming he'd be a great SP with that frame and potential... It took a while to appreciate him as a solid LHP out of the pen, and nothing more/less.
I wonder how much Owens' fantastic 2013 will let some people (not necessarily here) dream on 'what if he gains a few MPH, gets better FB command, etc', and then be disappointed when he's. only a solid #3 and not an ace. Granted he's still young, and definitely improving, but he may never get those last few mph on the FB, but still be a really quality MLB starter, something we'd have been happy with when he was drafted.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 27, 2013 22:19:50 GMT -5
Not sure on how Miller is a comp, since Owens has better K and BB rates while also being younger than Miller was in his first stint in the minors.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2013 22:33:33 GMT -5
I kind of like Henry just the way I saw him tonight. He looked better and better as the game progressed, was taken out after two quick, easy outs in the 7th and looked like he was just warming up. In fact, he got all six of his strikeouts in the course of retiring the last twelve guys in a row (the other outs being four fly outs and two popups). Before that, it was just a so-so start. My counter to some of the Owens talk... I wonder how much Owens' fantastic 2013 will let some people (not necessarily here) dream on 'what if he gains a few MPH, gets better FB command, etc', and then be disappointed when he's. only a solid #3 and not an ace. Granted he's still young, and definitely improving, but he may never get those last few mph on the FB, but still be a really quality MLB starter, something we'd have been happy with when he was drafted. I honestly believe that if he adds a few mph to his FB and develops good command of it, he's a CY winner. That's how demonstrably good his secondary stuff is. (You could derive a pretty good predictor of K rate based on just FB velocity and overall strike percentage, and it would probably predict 5.0-6.0 K/9 for Owens.) I think it's reasonable to dream about that, because both of those things do happen. But there's no reason to be disappointed if you merely get a good result. I had a friend who was quite a good poet ... did she dream of getting a poem in The New Yorker? Of course she did, and she got at least one personalized rejection of the "this is good, please keep sending us stuff" variety. But I don't think she was disappointed, since she was literally selling everything she wrote to various small press mags. You ought to dream of Olympian heights, and be satisfied with whatever good you do get. |
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,421 
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Post by ianrs on Aug 27, 2013 22:35:40 GMT -5
Great to see Hank outduel Stroman and bounce back from his last spotty start. Amazed how quickly Owens seems to have adjusted to AA, especially considering his age.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 27, 2013 23:07:41 GMT -5
Haven't noticed Denney in action for the GCL Sox in a couple weeks and he isn't listed as injured on that section here. Is he getting a prolonged rest/extra hitting sessions possibly? Also have noticed that Longhi has only been in 1-2 games per week during that same time period. Could someone with knowledge let us know possibly what is going on?
Thanks.
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Post by jchang on Aug 27, 2013 23:07:43 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Miller threw 97 at age 21? I do not recall any of his games with Detroit or Miami, but I wondered if he was an example of someone brought up to the majors too fast. Even a really good college player should spend a full year in AA/AAA where he could have corrected any weaknesses in his game. I am thinking Miller's real weakness today is lack of confidence, leading to wild pitches, not physical lack of control? So it is a good thing that we have many solid prospects in AAA and AA that are older. There should be no reason to rush Owens.
If Owens get stronger, that's great. But he is getting plenty of swing and miss or other outs at 89-91. Owens stats match up well against other elite Eastern League pitches including WHIP, so his higher walks means he gives up fewer hits. I just don't see any realistic expectation for him to have better opponent batting avg. But he could be even better than his elite status by giving fewer walks, i.e., no particular need for velocity? So long as Owens can work through 6-7 innings per game at reasonable pitch count, I would rather that he continue to pitch at 89-91.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 23:19:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Miller threw 97 at age 21? I do not recall any of his games with Detroit or Miami, but I wondered if he was an example of someone brought up to the majors too fast. Even a really good college player should spend a full year in AA/AAA where he could have corrected any weaknesses in his game. I am thinking Miller's real weakness today is lack of confidence, leading to wild pitches, not physical lack of control? So it is a good thing that we have many solid prospects in AAA and AA that are older. There should be no reason to rush Owens. If Owens get stronger, that's great. But he is getting plenty of swing and miss or other outs at 89-91. Owens stats match up well against other elite Eastern League pitches including WHIP, so his higher walks means he gives up fewer hits. I just don't see any realistic expectation for him to have better opponent batting avg. But he could be even better than his elite status by giving fewer walks, i.e., no particular need for velocity? So long as Owens can work through 6-7 innings per game at reasonable pitch count, I would rather that he continue to pitch at 89-91. At age 22 at least, Miller showed the ability to sit 94-ish and top out in the high 90s, yes.  |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2013 23:26:02 GMT -5
Can't do this tomorrow morning, so posting here now.
Entering 8/29 (Teams in BoldItalics have clinched a playoff spot. Teams in Bold would make playoffs if season ended today.)
Pawtucket, 75-62, 6 games remaining: 4 vs. Syracuse, 2 @ Lehigh Valley
IL North: 1st place, 2.5 GA of Rochester
(IL Wild Card: 2.0 GA of Norfolk)
Portland, 66-69, 7 games remaining: 2 @ NH, 5 vs. Trenton
EL Eastern, 2nd place: T-2nd place, 4.0 GB of Trenton (Tied w/ NH)
Salem, 37-26 2nd half, 70-63 overall, 7 games remaining: 4 vs. Frederick, 3 vs. Lynchburg (Magic #: 2)
CarL Southern, 2nd half: 1st place, 4.0 GA of Myrtle Beach
CarL Southern, 2nd half, 2nd place*: 1st place, 6.0 GA of Carolina
* = If Myrtle Beach wins Southern Division again, next-best second-half record makes playoffs
Lowell, 36-29, 8 games remaining: 1 vs. Aberdeen, 1 vs. Connecticut, 1 @ Connecticut, 2 vs. Tri-City, 3 @ Aberdeen
NYPL Stedler: 2nd place, 4.0 GB of Tri-City
NYPL Wild Card: 2nd place, 4.5 GB of Jamestown
GCL Red Sox, 34-24, 2 games remaining, clinched GCL South
Presently 3rd seed. Will play GCL Yankees2 in one-game first round. Sit 1 game behind for home field in that game. (But whatever, it's like a 2-hour drive to Tampa.)
DSL Red Sox, Clinched 1st place, Boca Chica NW
Lead Giants, 1-0, and lead suspended game 2, 8-3, in the top of the 9th, 1 out, men on first and second. (Yes, they suspended a playoff game in this situation. Must have been pouring. If anything, this will allow them to bring closer Victor Ramirez back to finish it.)
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