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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 16, 2014 20:16:38 GMT -5
Where are people getting the idea that Cargo is a bad defender? He has positive career UZR and DRS numbers in CF and RF in his career, with just below average (-0.7) marks in LF. The hamstring issues in 2012 definitely sapped his range a little bit, but he was still terrific last year and remains a rather dynamic corner outfielder -- he also still possesses one of the strongest arms in the game. He was a 'dynamic corner ourfielder with one of the strongest arms' in his first two season. Over the past 5 seasons he has had only 1 of above average production and since he has already regressed from his early career prowess, this has me concerned that he will continue to regress from his current average/below average defense. 2008 UZR/150: 20.1 2008 UZR/150: 5.3 2008 UZR/150: -1.9 2008 UZR/150: 0.0 2008 UZR/150: -8.0 2008 UZR/150: 9.5 2008 UZR/150: -12.5 To top it off, he has played most of his games in LF over the past five years (3,362 in LF vs 1,956 innings in CF/RF). Usually a team doesn't move an established player from RF/CF to LF unless their replacement is a significantly better OFer. This provides some insight into what the Rockies think of his defense. Does remind me of Holliday (who I was wrong about) in many ways. But I doubt it will happen again...
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 14:12:59 GMT -5
Old thread, but figured I'd bring a little life back to it.
It sounds like the Sox are pretty in love with what they saw Joe Kelly do at the end of the year, and really want to see what he can do. So I'm not fully sure how upgradeable the rotation is, given they want to see Kelly, and moving Buch isn't too likely given his ceiling.
I do however, think LF is the most upgradeable position on this team. I'm not super familiar with the Rockies system, but would love the So to go after Cargo and his 2 years remaining. What do people think it would take?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 8, 2015 14:44:53 GMT -5
102 road wRC+, 2.4 WAR and owed 17 and 20M the next two years. I think he's too risky and expensive.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 8, 2015 14:50:16 GMT -5
I'd be on board with the intentions of making him a full time DH next season. He loves to play the field, so I doubt he'd be on board, but it would probably be what's best for his career. I'd love to see the numbers he'd put up fully healthy with protection in the lineup.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2015 14:57:54 GMT -5
Maybe they've changed course, but last I remember reading, the Rockies were still trying to get a legit prospect package for Gonzalez. If that's still the case, I don't see much of a fit-- he's not good enough to be worth giving any of Boston's top-end guys, and once you go past Kopech, there's not a lot left in the system. If the Rockies were willing to accept, say, Castillo (who has some upside left) and second-tier prospects (think Johnson and below), I might be interested. Otherwise, I don't really see a fit.
DH next year is set aside for Hanley, and Gonzalez is still a decent defender, so that plan doesn't move the needle much to me.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 8, 2015 15:26:14 GMT -5
I wonder which everyone thinks is preferable between Braun and Gonzalez. They're both on the downside of their careers, lot of question marks on each, contracts seem to be what differentiate them the most.
It would be tough to talk either GM to trade these guys for anything less than a legit package due to the name recognition and the 'potential' that one of them could put up a big first half and draw significant interest at the trade deadline.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:14:43 GMT -5
Either one is an upgrade over Rusney. Braun has a much bigger ick factor too.
Also sounds like the Rockies are actively involved in Cargo trade talks currently.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 7, 2016 15:45:29 GMT -5
I mentioned something like this as a idea on the Henry Owens thread but didn't want to put this new idea on that thread. What I got from that thread is that trading starters for relievers is a generally bad concept.
Would a concept of a trade of Henry Owens, Rusney Castillo, Michael Chavis, and a low A ball prospect for Carlos Gonzalez and Jake MgGee work better?
The Rockies and Sox could line up as potential good trade partners. I'm not sure if the Rockies take this deal though.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Feb 7, 2016 16:13:26 GMT -5
The problem for the Sox is they have the wrong type of pitchers to play effectively in Denver. Curveball flatten out, sinkers don't sink, and knuckle balls don't dance in that mile high air.
Don't see a match
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 7, 2016 16:29:38 GMT -5
The problem for the Sox is they have the wrong type of pitchers to play effectively in Denver. Curveball flatten out, sinkers don't sink, and knuckle balls don't dance in that mile high air. Don't see a match Isn't the fastball and change up pitchers the ideal pitchers for Colorado? That's what Owens essentially is. He has a curveball but it's clearly his third best pitch.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Feb 7, 2016 16:33:37 GMT -5
The problem for the Sox is they have the wrong type of pitchers to play effectively in Denver. Curveball flatten out, sinkers don't sink, and knuckle balls don't dance in that mile high air. Don't see a match Isn't the fastball and change up pitchers the ideal pitchers for Colorado? That's what Owens essentially is. He has a curveball but it's clearly his third best pitch. Good point on Owens #1 pitch. In my mind i think junkballer, but its his change, not his curve that defines him. Perhaps he would be desired, but they seem pretty hard on the high velocity targets.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 7, 2016 17:05:45 GMT -5
Isn't the fastball and change up pitchers the ideal pitchers for Colorado? That's what Owens essentially is. He has a curveball but it's clearly his third best pitch. Good point on Owens #1 pitch. In my mind i think junkballer, but its his change, not his curve that defines him. Perhaps he would be desired, but they seem pretty hard on the high velocity targets. I think at this point, Colorado will take any quality pitching they can get their hands on.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2016 17:28:52 GMT -5
Rockies hitters will always be risky to me. Especially someone like Cargo who doesn't do anything on the road. I believe that Rockies hitters end up being worse on the road than they normally would, but the unknown/variables in these situations make me prefer to just avoid taking risks on their players regardless.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 7, 2016 17:38:39 GMT -5
Rockies hitters will always be risky to me. Especially someone like Cargo who doesn't do anything on the road. I believe that Rockies hitters end up being worse in the rod than they normally would, but the unknown/variables in these situations make me prefer to just avoid taking risks on their players regardless. How much worse can he really be compared to Castillo though? I mean even if he's 75% of the player outside of Colorado, that still would be 20-50% more productive then Castillo. I've never seen a more frustrating player than Castillo. His plus speed is negated by his slow time out the batters box. His strong defense and arm is negated by him making brainless mistakes at times in the field.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 7, 2016 20:09:40 GMT -5
I like this trade conceptually a lot more than I do just Owens-McGee, but I still wouldn't do it if I were in that position. I just think Owens is grossly underrated because he throws 88-91 and not 91-93. I don't see much difference because his FB is his least valuable pitch. His slider grades as solid-average to plus based on pitch value metrics, and the change is one of the three to five best in baseball (or the best, depending on your source/criteria). I'd love to get McGee, but not at that cost. I like Gonzalez, but his defense has declined with time, and I'm not entirely convinced his offense will make up the difference. Including Castillo going the other way does even out the financial cost some, so I certainly think it would help the Sox short-term, and not hurt them too much long-term financially. I still just wouldn't give up Owens. He's just 23...his command is almost guaranteed to improve, possibly substantially. Looking at what the D'backs gave up for Shelby Miller, I really like Owens's chances at being much more valuable in 1-3 years. Interesting thought, though...I'd be a lot more amenable I suppose if the Sox's needs increased, say if there were 'pen attrition and Castillo/JBJ/both were clearly not starting caliber come June.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 7, 2016 20:22:38 GMT -5
I mentioned something like this as a idea on the Henry Owens thread but didn't want to put this new idea on that thread. What I got from that thread is that trading starters for relievers is a generally bad concept. Would a concept of a trade of Henry Owens, Rusney Castillo, Michael Chavis, and a low A ball prospect for Carlos Gonzalez and Jake MgGee work better? The Rockies and Sox could line up as potential good trade partners. I'm not sure if the Rockies take this deal though. I think a fair number of people (myself included) liked the Miley-Smith trade. The big difference is years of control. In that case it was two to get five; trading Owens would be five to get two. Miley is also a much more clearly defined player in terms of ceiling/floor than is Owens, and in getting Elias back, the Sox got a starter option in return. All things being equal (years of control, salary, need), it's generally accepted that starters have more value than equivalent relievers. An elite closer probably has similar value to a first-division third starter. A good setup man is roughly equivalent to a second-division 4 or first-division 5. A big part of it is that starters pitch a lot more innings (though many at less leverage). It's not hard-and-fast, it just kinda depends on what the team needs, the costs, and the years of control. Ranaudo-Ross actually is looking like a pretty good move for the Sox. I didn't hate that at the time, either.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2016 20:28:44 GMT -5
Rockies hitters will always be risky to me. Especially someone like Cargo who doesn't do anything on the road. I believe that Rockies hitters end up being worse in the rod than they normally would, but the unknown/variables in these situations make me prefer to just avoid taking risks on their players regardless. How much worse can he really be compared to Castillo though? I mean even if he's 75% of the player outside of Colorado, that still would be 20-50% more productive then Castillo. I've never seen a more frustrating player than Castillo. His plus speed is negated by his slow time out the batters box. His strong defense and arm is negated by him making brainless mistakes at times in the field. If you're getting rid of Owens and Castillo you have to be sure he's a pretty big upgrade over Castillo.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 7:59:09 GMT -5
How much worse can he really be compared to Castillo though? I mean even if he's 75% of the player outside of Colorado, that still would be 20-50% more productive then Castillo. I've never seen a more frustrating player than Castillo. His plus speed is negated by his slow time out the batters box. His strong defense and arm is negated by him making brainless mistakes at times in the field. If you're getting rid of Owens and Castillo you have to be sure he's a pretty big upgrade over Castillo. Wouldn't you consider MgGee and Gonzalez as major upgrades?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 8:08:51 GMT -5
If you're getting rid of Owens and Castillo you have to be sure he's a pretty big upgrade over Castillo. Wouldn't you consider MgGee and Gonzalez as major upgrades? Well it would take a hell of a lot more than that so probably not big enough upgrades to give up the hypothetical amount. Cargo is a super risky player to bet the farm on. He's great in Colorado but average away and he's 30 and looking like he's in decline. Colorado probably wouldn't trade him unless a team is valuing him like he was from a few years ago while in Denver. I just see no point in giving up Owens. This team is fine right now and until it isn't, I'm not trading him for anyone that any team is offering. They aren't giving up on Castillo, as much as you hate him. I'm not super high on him either, but think he'll be perfectly acceptable as the weak link for the starting lineup. I still think his floor is 1.5-2 wins because of his defense.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 8:23:29 GMT -5
I just think Gonzalez could represent a perfect bridge to Benintendi and MgGee could add to a already loaded bullpen.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 8:26:27 GMT -5
Wouldn't you consider MgGee and Gonzalez as major upgrades? Well it would take a hell of a lot more than that so probably not big enough upgrades to give up the hypothetical amount. Cargo is a super risky player to bet the farm on. He's great in Colorado but average away and he's 30 and looking like he's in decline. Colorado probably wouldn't trade him unless a team is valuing him like he was from a few years ago while in Denver. I just see no point in giving up Owens. This team is fine right now and until it isn't, I'm not trading him for anyone that any team is offering. They aren't giving up on Castillo, as much as you hate him. I'm not super high on him either, but think he'll be perfectly acceptable as the weak link for the starting lineup. I still think his floor is 1.5-2 wins because of his defense. I'll try to keep my thoughts on Carlos Gonzalez on the Gonzalez thread. People don't like changing topics even though naturally one good conversation can lead to another.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 8, 2016 8:29:07 GMT -5
If you're getting rid of Owens and Castillo you have to be sure he's a pretty big upgrade over Castillo. Wouldn't you consider MgGee and Gonzalez as major upgrades? McGee is very good but our bullpen is already good, and Gonzalez is too much of a question mark for me to give up 5 years of Owens for. Is an extra 2 wins this year worth giving up Owens with that much team control? It's debatable, but in my opinion I wouldn't bite.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 8, 2016 9:49:57 GMT -5
I just think Gonzalez could represent a perfect bridge to Benintendi and MgGee could add to a already loaded bullpen. I'd make the trade (Owens, Castillo, Chavis). Only due to our SP depth. The 6-9 depth to me are fairly similar quality. Johnson will be a serviceable starter. 1 or 2 of Elias, Escobar, Wright should be ok if need be until Kopech/Espinoza are ready. AB seems to be somewhat blocked by Castillo & Cargo is clearly better than Castillo. That would eliminate one question mark. Cargo (defensively) in LF @ Fenway would be fine. Also, in the pen, Koji & Taz are a FA after this year.
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 8, 2016 11:05:19 GMT -5
.....and the change is one of the three to five best in baseball (or the best, depending on your source/criteria). This is me being curious, but what sources are there that would suggest this? I did some quick searches through fangraphs and BB and couldn't find anything that would point to a top 10 Change up (but still a good one). If I had to guess top 5 off my head I would say Greinke, Sale, Felix, Hamels, and Price (Buch too if he didn't "lose feel" of the changeup so frequently)
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 8, 2016 11:39:25 GMT -5
For what reason would the Rockies trade a bona fide above average (at least) to elite corner outfielder, after already trading Dickerson, AND McGee, for Castillo (with question marks and a long but manageable contract), Henry Owens (a 3rd to 5th starter now), Michael Chavis, who hasn't proven much of anything besides raw power and a bad two-strike approach, and a mystery low-A guy?
If you'd easily do that trade if you're the Sox, that likely means the Rockies wouldn't. Of course, they did basically exchange Tulo for Jose Reyes, but expecting them to trade two All-Star caliber players for Castillo/Owens/Chavis/? isn't exactly realistic.
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