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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 11:22:34 GMT -5
Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2017 11:22:34 GMT -5
More analysis, such as seeing Brentz play in the majors? Yeah. Given how easy it would be to DFA 2-3 relief pitchers (Boyer, Martin, Taylor), the latter two aren't even deemed good enough to bring up now, there just is no defense of this. Especially with their hitting struggles. They are not struggling with low leverage relievers, nor will any difference in quality of the low leverage relievers help them win a single game. The organization has clearly concluded that they don't think Brentz is a meaningful upgrade on Young. In that light, bringing him up is pretty pointless. Five or six plate appearances a week wouldn't provide a meaningful basis for evaluation. I understand completely that's what they think. I think they're wrong. Any upgrade at all on Young is an upgrade during the playoff stretch. Boyer, who is clearly only going to get mopup innings that literally any other pitcher in the bullpen can take without noticing a difference is not going to help them win anything. He won't be on the playoff roster and he's a free agent after the season. That makes him just a warm body in the bullpen when they have 11 other guys out there. Brentz could easily win a game with a well timed HR.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2017 12:48:33 GMT -5
You still have to make the argument that Brentz is meaningfully better than Young, and that's not a slam dunk, as I noted originally. I know it's frustrating, but you can't assume that Brentz is going to hit a well-timed home run and that Young wouldn't. Change for the sake of change is not always the solution. Sometimes you just need to hang tight and hope your established players break out of their funk.
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gerry
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 13:10:31 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Sept 5, 2017 13:10:31 GMT -5
You still have to make the argument that Brentz is meaningfully better than Young, and that's not a slam dunk, as I noted originally. I know it's frustrating, but you can't assume that Brentz is going to hit a well-timed home run and that Young wouldn't. Change for the sake of change is not always the solution. Sometimes you just need to hang tight and hope your established players break out of their funk. Your logic is valid except for this point: The September Sox are absolutely desperate for good hittng and power. Neither Young (nor my binky Rajai) have provided this to date. With a 2.5g lead and a few weeks of games remaining, Brentz could be their ONLY available weapon to provide this missing AB's. He has actually been hitting well, the only 4th OF option who has, and with terrific power which should translate well to Fenway. That this option has, for totally inexplicable reasons, been taken off the table seems surreal. It's not that Young and Rajai won't hit well, it's that they haven't and time is quick running out, and that Brentz (as with Ells, Workman, Bogie, Devers in the recent past) COULD provide that missing spark during the final sprint. It's not like CY or Rajai are not available if Brentz is brought up at the expense of a redundant middle reliever. And it's not like CY or Rajai are likely to be around in 2018, whereas an under appreciated late blooming Brentz could be joining Shaw in Milwaukee because of this intransigence. That would just be dumb.
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 13:48:39 GMT -5
Post by possum on Sept 5, 2017 13:48:39 GMT -5
I'm sick of watching Young at this point there is no downside to giving Brentz a look, I'd release Young to free up roster spot, maybe will catch lightning in a bottle ain't gonna happen with Young
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 5, 2017 13:56:24 GMT -5
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 14:27:26 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2017 14:27:26 GMT -5
You still have to make the argument that Brentz is meaningfully better than Young, and that's not a slam dunk, as I noted originally. I know it's frustrating, but you can't assume that Brentz is going to hit a well-timed home run and that Young wouldn't. Change for the sake of change is not always the solution. Sometimes you just need to hang tight and hope your established players break out of their funk. I don't think that it's only a Brentz versus Young thing, although that certainly is a, if not the, primary factor. It's Brentz vs. Young; Brentz vs. Travis as a pinch hitter (or whether you could use both); and rostering Brentz to keep him on the roster until at least ST next year, which it seems really clear they've decided not to do (again, they opted to have Ben Taylor make three appearances in Pawtucket rather than roster Brentz). I'm sorry, but I find this baffling in the sense that, while Brentz was very unlikely to be a huge part of the stretch run, this was such an easy thing to do that it's hard to see the downside.
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 14:51:35 GMT -5
Post by Guidas on Sept 5, 2017 14:51:35 GMT -5
The organization has clearly concluded that they don't think Brentz is a meaningful upgrade on Young. In that light, bringing him up is pretty pointless. Five or six plate appearances a week wouldn't provide a meaningful basis for evaluation. I understand completely that's what they think. I think they're wrong. Any upgrade at all on Young is an upgrade during the playoff stretch. Boyer, who is clearly only going to get mopup innings that literally any other pitcher in the bullpen can take without noticing a difference is not going to help them win anything. He won't be on the playoff roster and he's a free agent after the season. That makes him just a warm body in the bullpen when they have 11 other guys out there. Brentz could easily win a game with a well timed HR. Hear, hear! On a team struggling for power, there's an opportunity. They've had other players over the years come up for short stints and make the post season roster (Xander being the most recent). And btw, most of Brentz's HRs have come off RHP so there it's not like he'd potentially be a lefty-only replacement. Speaking of which, there are so many players who are playing at or near replacement level on this roster, including Young, Holt, Xander and Hanley, what do they have to lose in trying to evaluate him off the bench over the next few weeks. Or would've been if they didn't waste a 5.5 game lead in the last week, that is.
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 15:10:59 GMT -5
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Post by doctorduck21 on Sept 5, 2017 15:10:59 GMT -5
Not giving Brentz a shot is really dumb even if it turns out he still can't hit major league pitching. I'm convinced nothing will make Farrell remove Young from his current role. He's been awful pretty much all year and yet He's held onto to his job without so much of a challenge.
There are too many players providing zero to the offense to not at least try someone with power from AAA. Especially when you have a bunch of relievers sitting on the 40 man, who apparently aren't good enough to get September call ups or are locked into mop up duty
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gerry
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 15:11:53 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Sept 5, 2017 15:11:53 GMT -5
I've said this in the Brentz thread too, but the spot he should have taken should've been Taylor to the 60-day (it's very clear that Martin is getting DFA for Smith given that the only guys on the 40 not coming up are him, Johnson, Taylor, and Owens, which I wish I'd realized earlier in my tweet thread last night). The 40-man excuse is beyond weak. Is it possible there is some under the surface issue that is not known? He hit pretty well when in Boston, but has he ruffled feathers?
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 16:10:31 GMT -5
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 5, 2017 16:10:31 GMT -5
If Dombrowski were GM of NYY, Aaron Judge would still be in AAA. And the sabermetrics would justify it.
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bosox
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Posts: 2,117
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 18:40:46 GMT -5
Post by bosox on Sept 5, 2017 18:40:46 GMT -5
The organization has clearly concluded that they don't think Brentz is a meaningful upgrade on Young. In that light, bringing him up is pretty pointless. Five or six plate appearances a week wouldn't provide a meaningful basis for evaluation. I understand completely that's what they think. I think they're wrong. Any upgrade at all on Young is an upgrade during the playoff stretch. Boyer, who is clearly only going to get mopup innings that literally any other pitcher in the bullpen can take without noticing a difference is not going to help them win anything. He won't be on the playoff roster and he's a free agent after the season. That makes him just a warm body in the bullpen when they have 11 other guys out there. Brentz could easily win a game with a well timed HR. You look at what Marrero and Lin brought to the Sox in a limited appearance this year. It was a much needed surprising boost of energy and perhaps, Brentz could have provided a few well-timed hits in limited appearances through the end of the year. It just doesn't make sense not to have Brentz available.
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Brentz
Sept 5, 2017 19:12:21 GMT -5
Post by Guidas on Sept 5, 2017 19:12:21 GMT -5
I've said this in the Brentz thread too, but the spot he should have taken should've been Taylor to the 60-day (it's very clear that Martin is getting DFA for Smith given that the only guys on the 40 not coming up are him, Johnson, Taylor, and Owens, which I wish I'd realized earlier in my tweet thread last night). The 40-man excuse is beyond weak. Is it possible there is some under the surface issue that is not known? He hit pretty well when in Boston, but has he ruffled feathers? Daniel Nava Syndrome.
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ericmvan
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Brentz
Sept 6, 2017 1:06:11 GMT -5
Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2017 1:06:11 GMT -5
The amount of playing time John Farrell would give Brentz the rest of the way would increase your knowledge of how Brentz could hit in MLB enormously. Maybe as much as 2%. Meanwhile, what a guy can do in AAA gives you a very good idea of what he'll do in MLB. Brentz projects to be an average MLB hitter, which means he'll be below average as an an outfielder, and he'll be a bit below average in the field, but he'll have big platoon splits and, if he can adapt to DHing, can be a very respectable platoon partner there, and an OK and dirt-cheap 4th OFer. The projected difference between Brentz and Chris Young vs. LHP the rest of the way is not large, because Young projects to bounce back towards his career level. This will remain true the rest of the season. Given Young's clubhouse reputation, I can understand Farrell sticking with him. I'm not endorsing it, just saying it's not incomprehensible. And it absolutely doesn't follow that not selecting Brentz now means they think little or nothing about him as Young's heir. It seems to much more a vote of confidence that Young can resume mashing lefties like he has his whole career. The bolded has been discussed a lot in recent years and the conclusion is that the difference between AAA and the majors has never been greater.I am not convinced that Young bounces back. He hasn't been even an average hitter against anyone at any point of the season. He might just be done. Correct, which is why a guy killing it in AAA projects to be MLB average.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2017 7:18:19 GMT -5
The bolded has been discussed a lot in recent years and the conclusion is that the difference between AAA and the majors has never been greater.I am not convinced that Young bounces back. He hasn't been even an average hitter against anyone at any point of the season. He might just be done. Correct, which is why a guy killing it in AAA projects to be MLB average. Yes, which is better than Chris Young has been all year.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 7:20:40 GMT -5
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2017 7:20:40 GMT -5
I'd feel better about Brentz being home now if we knew he'd be added this offseason. Being out of options makes it tough, and maybe the FO just doesnt see a scenario where he makes the 25 man, no matter what.
If they feel they need to bring in a 4th OF next year (seems like they do) and have Lin/Holt at 5th, Brentz is gone. I'd argue that you should try it, and if you have to trade him, or let him go in May, so be it. They may also realize that if they are over tax anyway they can just add and remove Rusney at will and if someone claims him so be it.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 9:51:51 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2017 9:51:51 GMT -5
I'd feel better about Brentz being home now if we knew he'd be added this offseason. Being out of options makes it tough, and maybe the FO just doesnt see a scenario where he makes the 25 man, no matter what. If they feel they need to bring in a 4th OF next year (seems like they do) and have Lin/Holt at 5th, Brentz is gone. I'd argue that you should try it, and if you have to trade him, or let him go in May, so be it. They may also realize that if they are over tax anyway they can just add and remove Rusney at will and if someone claims him so be it. I would be very surprised if they felt strongly enough about Brentz to add him in the 5 days after the world series but not strongly enough to add him in September. It doesn't make sense. The line of "we don't have room on the 40-man" is really shorthand for "we don't have room on the 40-man based on how good we think you are." As I've said above, based on arb. raises, they're pretty much guaranteed to go over the CBT next year (go follow twitter.com/redsoxpayroll , who is doing the lord's work, and his spreadsheet at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit#gid=1603863171 ). For that reason, Rusney as the 4th outfielder makes a lot of sense - he's WAY better defensively than Brentz, who isn't good out there. Brentz's fit on the roster would be if he could also play some 1B and back it up, but his same-handedness as Travis is kind of an issue there (and probably a big reason why they were comfortable leaving him off the roster in September, as Travis will probably get the AB's vs. LHP that Brentz would've stolen from Young). The nice thing with Castillo is you can see how he looks in winter ball and ST before making the call.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 10:00:06 GMT -5
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2017 10:00:06 GMT -5
I think that is basically my interpretation as well. There's no way they add him because they don't think he can stick on 25 man anyway.
Rusney can be added easily enough, but with 3 years left, can he be DFA without permission at any point in that time? If he is good enough to provide value then you trade him to get space/salary savings, but he does have options too, which helps vs. Brentz.
As we saw with Travis Shaw, the Red Sox FO may not do a great job evaluating prospect growth and extrapolation... the problems I have are
1) what are the chances Brentz will be better than the 4th OF on the roster most of 2018 2) what are the chances Brentz could have been traded for something more than the nothing they will get if he leaves as MiL FA. 3) Is Travis better than Brentz for 2018, or just more roster flexibility.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 10:04:33 GMT -5
Post by jimed14 on Sept 7, 2017 10:04:33 GMT -5
It's still going to piss me off seeing him hitting HRs for the Rays and handing them 6 years of control for nothing.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 10:34:04 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2017 10:34:04 GMT -5
I think that is basically my interpretation as well. There's no way they add him because they don't think he can stick on 25 man anyway. Rusney can be added easily enough, but with 3 years left, can he be DFA without permission at any point in that time? If he is good enough to provide value then you trade him to get space/salary savings, but he does have options too, which helps vs. Brentz. As we saw with Travis Shaw, the Red Sox FO may not do a great job evaluating prospect growth and extrapolation... the problems I have are 1) what are the chances Brentz will be better than the 4th OF on the roster most of 2018 2) what are the chances Brentz could have been traded for something more than the nothing they will get if he leaves as MiL FA. 3) Is Travis better than Brentz for 2018, or just more roster flexibility. Not sure what you're asking with the bolded part. Any player can be designated for assignment. If you're asking whether or not he can refuse an outright assignment, he can elect to become a free agent because he has been outrighted once before, but that would let the Sox off the hook for his contract and is therefore unlikely. Also, Castillo qualifies for a fourth option, so they can option him if necessary (although at that point, they would probably just DFA him). As a reminder, the money owed: 18:$11M, 19:$11M, 20:$13.5M. Has an opt-out after 2019 he won't use.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 7, 2017 11:29:29 GMT -5
I think that answers my question, which is that as long as he can't refuse to be outrighted, they can remove his salary off 40 man roster for 2019.
But Sandoval presumably would have refused outright and Sox have to pay him now when he elected to become FA... what is difference if Rusney would refuse and become FA? Am I being dense? (possible)
Edit: I'm not even sure I'm asking the right question, I'm going to do some research on outright vs waivers etc.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 12:43:08 GMT -5
Post by James Dunne on Sept 7, 2017 12:43:08 GMT -5
If Dombrowski were GM of NYY, Aaron Judge would still be in AAA. And the sabermetrics would justify it. Stuff I don't agree with = Sabermetrics. Because Dave Dombrowski loves those newfangled statistics. "Those statheads don't even watch games. Also, let me compare Bryce Brentz and Aaron Judge unironically."
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 13:33:17 GMT -5
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 7, 2017 13:33:17 GMT -5
So much love for Brentz. I really don't get it. It seems crystal clear how they view him.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 7, 2017 13:37:12 GMT -5
So much love for Brentz. I really don't get it. It seems crystal clear how they view him. It also seems crystal clear that a lot of people disagree how the Red Sox view him? Brentz seems to potentially fill a need, plus on a Red Sox prospects message board there's going to be some sympathy/homerism for a guy who has put in the work for eight years. I get the frustration here.
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 14:35:40 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2017 14:35:40 GMT -5
I think that answers my question, which is that as long as he can't refuse to be outrighted, they can remove his salary off 40 man roster for 2019. But Sandoval presumably would have refused outright and Sox have to pay him now when he elected to become FA... what is difference if Rusney would refuse and become FA? Am I being dense? (possible) Edit: I'm not even sure I'm asking the right question, I'm going to do some research on outright vs waivers etc. Well, pay attention to the precise wording, because it matters. When a player has 5 years of service time, they can refuse an outright assignment. In other words, force the club to either keep or release them, and in either case the club still pays his contract. In other-er words, players with 5 years of service time effectively can't be outrighted. Such players can also elect to become a free agent, in which case their contract is terminated. Third option is to accept the outright and defer the decision on whether to become a free agent until the end of the season (unless they're added back to the 40-man roster first). Players with 3 years of service time or who have been outrighted once before cannot refuse an outright assignment, but they can elect free agency or choose to do so at the end of the year if they're not added back first. But again, electing to become a free agent terminates their contract. (Super twos can elect free agency, but can't defer the option, for... reasons? I dunno. Anyway...) Sandoval was in the first group, which is why the club released him and is still paying his contract. Castillo is in the latter group because he's been outrighted once before (for reference, he's at 143 days of service time, 29 days from one year). On a related note, The Cub Reporter - know it, love it www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3531
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Brentz
Sept 7, 2017 16:03:39 GMT -5
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 7, 2017 16:03:39 GMT -5
So much love for Brentz. I really don't get it. It seems crystal clear how they view him. It also seems crystal clear that a lot of people disagree how the Red Sox view him? Brentz seems to potentially fill a need, plus on a Red Sox prospects message board there's going to be some sympathy/homerism for a guy who has put in the work for eight years. I get the frustration here. I would have liked to see him called up after Bradley went down. It would have been a nice little audition. So I get frustration over things like that. I don't get that people are showing him so much love that they are talking about 6 years down the line. We are talking about a 28 year old in AAA, having a good not great year. Reminds me of Chris Marrero, heck Marrero had a better track record than Brentz.
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