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9/27-9/29 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2013 14:30:14 GMT -5
Felix Doubront, losing his playoff roster spot.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 29, 2013 14:48:16 GMT -5
I apologize in advance here if this has been answered already but what are the latest guesses on who of Bogaerts, Berry, McDonald and Bradley make the playoff roster? I'd like to see Bogaerts and Berry personally.Great to see Berry got the HR there. Same here.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Sept 29, 2013 15:12:01 GMT -5
We may need 8 from all the playoff starters
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2013 15:35:56 GMT -5
MLB will go back to the 154 game schedule when they shed 10-12 teams with no chance of competing without handouts, the MLBPA actively supports the good of the game itself and ceases the negative agendas of destruction (like protecting PED users). The reserve clause is stripped away (harsh, but required). Umpires are hired and fired on merits of their game, not kept around forever, just because they have been there forever and have tenure, like teachers. Many things will happen before the cash cow for owners that was those extra 8 games added will change 1st IMO. Calm down Adam Smith. Your post is about ten years late. The pining for a 154-game schedule immediately activates my bullshit radar. There's no reason we should go from one arbitrary amount of games to another other than "that's how it was when baseball was played the right way!"
And using the coded term "handouts" isn't fooling anyone. These are franchises all working towards a greater good. This isn't free market economics where teams should be fighting for their lives among one another. Any competition between teams should end on the field. Baseball is thriving right now and part of it is because the new model has allowed small-market teams to compete with the large market teams. That's good for all teams and it's something every owner wants. Acting like "handouts" (read: revenue sharing, something every other sports league does) are a bad thing is so small-minded and provincial. And the reserve clause is long gone and the MLBPA no longer harbors PED users. The only reason I'm for going back to 154 is so we're not playing the WS in Nov, which is where it's headed. Unless of course MLB requires retractable roofs in all stadia in cold-weather locations. Then it would be fine.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 29, 2013 15:53:42 GMT -5
Instead of going back to 154, I'd like to see them shorten spring training by a week and start the season early. Some weather problems in the mid-west and east but they could start the season a week early. Expand the play-offs and deal with a few DH's.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 29, 2013 16:19:35 GMT -5
Cold weather is the killer. Fewer days off. Start/end the season in southern states. Play early/late season games where there are retractable, or roofed stadiums. Understand where you are coming from.
Then there was Jerry Park (Old Expos) One day will look up the amount of days they missed due to snow.
Anyone else watch the Rays? Rodney threw 34 pitches! He topped 100mph 2 times, at pitch # *28* and *30*. Think he was fired up?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2013 17:18:35 GMT -5
Ah well, two blown chances to play .600 ball. Certainly NOT the end of the world, although it would have been more pleasing to the eye. Another bad day for bullpen hopefuls.
I guess the most positive aspect of today - assuming Cleveland is the team you're hoping for is that by virtue of all Wild Card hopefuls winning Cleveland misses David Price in a winner-take-all as he'll pitch against Texas tomorrow at Texas.
So it's either Texas that takes out Tampa and faces Cleveland or Tampa knocks out Texas but goes to Cleveland with arguably their 3rd best pitcher Alex Cobb, who's hardly a slouch himself, but on the road perhaps that gives Cleveland their best shot and if they win again it's 11 straight and onto Boston where I think that winning streak would end. Certainly makes for some interesting baseball ahead.
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Post by jclmontana on Sept 29, 2013 17:25:15 GMT -5
Doubront may be losing more than his place on the playoff roster. I wonder if he is finalizing his ticket out of Boston this off-season or early next year. Showing up out of shape for spring training, the up and down year in terms of performance, his recent comments about not being a bullpen guy, and this POS performance today. At the very least, the correct public statement about going to the bullpen should have been something along the lines of the "whatever's best for the team" boilerplate that we have been getting all year long about this team.
With all the hype this year about team chemistry, Doubront is one of the few guys that doesn't fit that model (at least publicly), and Felix comes off as a bit of a prima donna. Then, on the verge of the playoffs, he soils the sheets with this stinker today. Yeah, maybe the bullpen is not a good fit for Felix, and the game had little meaning, but 5 runs in 1.1 innings? He is a much better pitcher than that. Doesn't seem like the kind of guy one would want to go to battle with.
Of course talent rules, but if he does not find some consistency in his performance, I would not be surprised to see them dump him for fifty-cents on the dollar by next year's trade deadline and move on.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2013 17:30:27 GMT -5
You're reading too much into it. Doubront just had -zero- command today, and when he fell behind hitters, they hit him hard. Difficult to fault him for that, especially since he hasn't been on much of a routine since he's left the rotation. The "I don't feel totally comfortable in the bullpen" comments were pretty innocuous as well, and it's not like he pulled an Aceves and refused to go to the bullpen.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 29, 2013 17:31:07 GMT -5
You keep Doubront unless you get a nice offer for him.
Makes absolutely no sense to trade a pitcher like that for cents on the dollar when you consider how Dempster has been pretty below-average... makes a lot more sense to dump him instead of Felix... (unless, again, we get a great offer for Lackey or Peavy).
Hopefully the Rays lose one of these one game playoffs. I'd hate to face them in the first round. I'd much rather see Cleveland.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2013 17:34:09 GMT -5
Here's what Doubront said after the game: “As a reliever, I have to be more prepared for that, for those situations. As a starter, I can do everything there and help the team. I think I can do that,” said Doubront. “It’s not the same [relieving], man. It’s not the same. You have to warm up, you have to stretch, you have to warm up quicker, you have to be ready in 10-20 pitches. As a starter, you stretch, run a little bit, long toss. Relieving, the long toss is right there. I can do it. I can do it. But today was my first time, you know? I have to practice that more on Tuesday, be more quick and get my arm ready. … And mentally, too, you have to be prepared mentally to be relieving and get ready faster.”
No, it's not the standard boilerplate, but it's nothing even close to justify shopping him this offseason because of attitude or chemistry reasons.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2013 18:14:26 GMT -5
Doubront has been out of the rotation for under a week and had never pitched in relief until today. There is very little you can take from this game that means anything. The only way he was going to make the playoff roster based on this game was if he was lights out, and even then, the chances of him making the ALDS roster were still slim to none
I made a mistake clearly. It does happen occasionally when you rush
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2013 18:31:58 GMT -5
I still think Game 1 of the ALDS should start the day after the WC game.
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Post by bigpupp on Sept 29, 2013 18:37:35 GMT -5
Doubront has been out of the rotation for under a week and had never pitched in relief until today. There is very little you can take from this game that means anything. The only way he was going to make the playoff roster based on this game was if he was lights out, and even then, the chances of him making the ALDS roster were still slim to none Nitpicking, but Doubront made 9 relief appearances in 2010.
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Post by jmei on Sept 29, 2013 19:18:26 GMT -5
Alex Speier speculating that Lester and Lackey are starting the first two games because Buchholz and Peavy are pitching in the simulated game.
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Post by godot on Sept 29, 2013 19:35:11 GMT -5
Doubront has been out of the rotation for under a week and had never pitched in relief until today. There is very little you can take from this game that means anything. The only way he was going to make the playoff roster based on this game was if he was lights out, and even then, the chances of him making the ALDS roster were still slim to none Nitpicking, but Doubront made 9 relief appearances in 2010. Seems Felix was given the message a few weeks back that the pen would be his role, if any. For him to say this now is a little strange. Would not be surprised if Thorton gets the call for left handed hitters.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 29, 2013 20:02:45 GMT -5
It's been scary with both Doubront and Thornton. I wish Britton had been thrown into a few more games instead of Thornton later in the season. Not that he's any better, but we really don't know yet and after watching Thornton since July? We have seen what he has and he isn't what the team thought.
Morales doesn't seem to be all the way back. Doubront does not seem to be transitioning to the pen quickly, or after just 1 relief appearance. Not sure why he was only used 1 time that way? His velocity touched 93 2 times was what I saw today. Up a bit from his starts this year, but down from his max last year still, where he was averaging that and touching 95 while starting.
Have to wonder where all that velocity went over the winter.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2013 20:44:54 GMT -5
Doubront has been out of the rotation for under a week and had never pitched in relief until today. There is very little you can take from this game that means anything. The only way he was going to make the playoff roster based on this game was if he was lights out, and even then, the chances of him making the ALDS roster were still slim to none Please use the Internet to check out statements before you make them. We have more information resources than we ever dreamed of. Let's put then into play. Doubront started his career with the Sox coming out of the pen.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 29, 2013 20:53:14 GMT -5
Thornton isn't that bad Farrell just isn't using him correctly. He should be used pretty much entirely as a situational lefty.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2013 20:54:53 GMT -5
Geez, I didn't realize it, but if Price is in line for Game 2 of the ALDS, he could also pitch a decisive Game 5 of the ALDS as he would have 4 days of rest.
Now I REALLY want no part of TB. I figure the Rays have the odds against them over the next two nights as they are on the road potentially each night, Price faces the team he struggles against the most at the place he struggles the most, and Cleveland avoids Moore and Price in the one game playoff at home if TB does advance to the Wild Card playoff.
Darvish is really nasty and Ubaldo has pitched very well of late, but there's no way I'd want to see Price twice in 5 games and deal with Moore and Cobb.
The other thing I think is that Farrell is really, really going to have to play matchups in the 6th and 7th innings and steal outs with Breslow and Koji.
I mean, he cannot let Tazawa face lefties in key spots or let Thornton or Morales faces righties in key spots. He should use Tazawa and Dempster for the righty situations and Thornton and Morales for the lefty situations (assuming one of Doubront and Workman is out and the other is in long relief). He'll probably have to have Breslow come in during the 7th when necessary and let Koji try to get 4 or 5 outs as needed. It'll be interesting to see if/how different his managing in the post-season will be versus his regular season managing. Ie, let's see if Bogaerts bats for Drew against a tough lefty in a key spot.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2013 23:42:12 GMT -5
Doubront has been out of the rotation for under a week and had never pitched in relief until today. There is very little you can take from this game that means anything. The only way he was going to make the playoff roster based on this game was if he was lights out, and even then, the chances of him making the ALDS roster were still slim to none Please use the Internet to check out statements before you make them. We have more information resources than we ever dreamed of. Let's put then into play. Doubront started his career with the Sox coming out of the pen. that's my bad. That's what I get for going on the site from my phone. Saw his quotes about not relieving and didn't think twice about it. That's what I thought initially when I read his comments, but when I saw what he said I figured I was losing my mind. Well at least I'm not going crazy The occasional time I don't actually look up something. Usually I start a post, double check, and end up deleting my post. Awesome
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,013
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2013 5:00:27 GMT -5
Messing about with Win Probability swings reveals, perhaps, how shaky our middle relief has been all year.
We went 10-3 in games won after the opponent had reached a 90% WP, but 10-14 in games where the opponent reached 75% but less than 90%. The latter, of course, tend to be games where you didn't get to your closer.
A breakdown that overlaps with the latter: we were 6-11 in games where neither team reached 90% until the final play of the game. (Combining the last two breakdowns, we were 15-20.)
Breaking down that 10-3 shows exactly how valuable it was. There were 91 games where we reached a 90% WP without having won already, and we won 88 (96.7%), or 6 more than expected. There were 63 games where we dropped below 10% without having lost, and we won 10 (15.9%), 4 more than expected. So we were just about equally good at sealing the deal and preventing the other team from doing so.
We were 72-42 (.632) in straightforward games, ones where the winning team never fell below 25% and reached 90% before the final play (or when the game was called early). Perhaps even more so than the 10-3 in games with dramatic swings, that underscores how out of character the 15-20 in intermediate games was.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2013 10:23:03 GMT -5
I'm annoyed that Buchholz isn't going in the first two games. He's the best pitcher on the Red Sox by a significant margin, and I don't care that he's coming back from an injury. He's still better than Lester and definitely better than Lackey. This isn't a negative statement about Lester and Lackey; Buchholz is just that good.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 30, 2013 13:29:57 GMT -5
I'm annoyed that Buchholz isn't going in the first two games. He's the best pitcher on the Red Sox by a significant margin, and I don't care that he's coming back from an injury. He's still better than Lester and definitely better than Lackey. This isn't a negative statement about Lester and Lackey; Buchholz is just that good. I don't really think it's that he's coming back from an injury. It's home/road splits of him and Lackey Clay has very similar lines at Fenway and on the road, 1.99/1.40 ERA, with expanded stats shading him a little better at home On the other hand, Lackey has extreme H/R splits in almost every category. An ERA almost 2.5 runs better at Fenway, HR/9 almost a full HR better at Fenway Buchholz is better than Lackey IMO, and if both games were in the same ballpark Clay would likely be in front of him in the rotation, but with the games split But when you get a guy that has pitched like a superstar at Fenway, you have him pitch there. He also had two of his worst statistical starts of the season in Tampa if the Sox end up playing the Rays, so you really don't want him lined up to pitch in Tampa
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 30, 2013 13:32:25 GMT -5
Thornton isn't that bad Farrell just isn't using him correctly. He should be used pretty much entirely as a situational lefty. Thornton wasn't always that I think is what Farrell is wanting to see. Thornton it looks like has lost 2-3mph off of his peak of 96-97mph on his FB and has anyone seen that disappearing slider of his yet this year? I have not. That was his out pitch vs RH hitters anyway. I think it's why he keeps trying to see if he is even capable of getting RH guys out. He knows Morales can get lefties out, but struggles vs RH guys and always will, plus Morales has that "balk move" pickoff to 1b that keeps runners close at 1b that might be an advantage over Thornton if it's some kind of battle between those 2 in his mind for a roster spot. That was why myself wanted to see Britton also getting into more games at the end. There was really no separation between Doubront, Thornton, Britton and even Morales. If the team was going to take a couple of them with Breslow and expose them to RH batters? Show them all to them a few times and allow Britton that trial also. letting Doubront go that full inning yesterday was a futile one. It only proved 1 thing.. He can't hack it which he summed up before even going back to the pen on short notice.
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