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10/20-10/21 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Offday Thread
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 21, 2013 12:53:08 GMT -5
I might go with Thornton although I'm not 100% convinced that Morales is still not the answer. Yes Morales was awful, but I'm not gonna have much more confidence in Britton or Thornton in the same situation.
Thornton at least is deadly against lefties when used correctly, which he wasn't. He also has the experience at least over Britton.
I would also think seriously about switching out Quintin Berry for Lavarnway (that's assuming Napoli wouldn't even be a emergency catcher in a NL park) . Lavarnway allows you to pinch hit for the catchers without loosing your backup. He has pop. In NL parks you can use as many as 3 or 4 PH's per game. I like having the spped threat in Berry, but Farrell didn't even use him in situations that cried for a PR.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 21, 2013 13:16:47 GMT -5
Any chance the Sox might drop Morales and go with a position player?
With the time off between series and the two days off during, the bullpen will be rested. They have Dempster and Doubront if a starter goes out early. I'm just looking for more ways to pinch hit for Drew and pinch run for the catchers. Maybe Holt, Synder, or Larvenway.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 21, 2013 13:32:26 GMT -5
Is this kid really 21? Like the article says it is now not a question of whether Xander should start in the WS, it's how high he should bat in the order. linkGood article. My favorite line from Britton: ...and I like this one for it's barely contained excitement, from someone who's watched him from the get-go:
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Post by jmei on Oct 21, 2013 13:44:50 GMT -5
Versus lefties, 2013: Franklin Morales: 10.97 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.74 FIP, 2.25 xFIP (42 TBF) Drake Britton: 9.82 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.23 FIP, 3.22 xFIP (43 TBF) Matt Thornton: 8.06 K/9, 1.21 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, 3.54 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (89 TBF)
The main difference is that Morales had an awful 6.59 FIP/6.96 xFIP versus righties, while Britton was decent with a 3.95 FIP/3.88 xFIP and Thornton was bleh with a 4.57 FIP and 5.25 xFIP.
I have no problem with Morales staying on the roster as long as he does not pitch to a single right-handed or switch hitter going forward, which should be doable considering the composition of the rest of the bullpen (with Dempster/Doubront as long guys). In the LOOGY role, Morales is as good an option as exists in the organization, especially since Britton and Thornton haven't pitched in a game in three weeks.
I'm very happy with the roster the way it it. There just aren't that many weak chains in the lineup that it makes sense to pinch-hit for, even if it gives you the platoon advantage. Plus, in Fenway, no matter what, you'll have Middlebrooks and Gomes on the bench to pinch-hit for Drew/Saltalamacchia/Nava versus a left-handed reliever. If either of Ross or Middlebrooks starts, you'll have Carp (and Drew/Saltalamacchia) to sub in versus a right-handed reliever. Add Napoli to that list when the series shifts to St. Louis. Saltalamacchia and Ross are both good enough hitters and trusted enough defenders that you won't pinch-hit for them more than once a game, so Lavarnway seems unnecessary. The only reason you'd want Holt or Snyder is if you were planning on pinch-hitting for Drew (and putting Middlebrooks into his spot in the lineup) and then pinch-hitting for Middlebrooks the next time around the order, which seems like a pretty unlikely scenario to burn a roster spot for.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 21, 2013 14:04:39 GMT -5
That makes sense jmei. I was just thinking in the nl games you will need one, probably two pinch hitters for the pitcher's spot. If a starter leaves early you have double switches but I like having an extra bench guy in those games.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2013 14:06:17 GMT -5
Looks like Gomes is going again Game 1 as Farrell just not didn't commit to it but said something to the effect that he didn't want to mess with the "momentum" that the Game 6 line-up created.
So there's that.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 21, 2013 14:25:59 GMT -5
gabe kapler ?@gabekapler 11m My X factor in the World Series is Bogaerts. Vegas says odds, 16-1 that he wins the WS MVP. He's my selection today. Young but ready. #OBP
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 21, 2013 14:48:23 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2013 16:46:39 GMT -5
gabe kapler ?@gabekapler 11m My X factor in the World Series is Bogaerts. Vegas says odds, 16-1 that he wins the WS MVP. He's my selection today. Young but ready. #OBP Kapler also picked Det to win the series after the Fister win. So there's that.
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Post by bsout2 on Oct 21, 2013 20:13:40 GMT -5
A boring but interesting fact, I live in the Midwest and it is about to get COLD! Game time tempatures could get to the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday in St Louis. The St Louis home stand could end up being some 2-1 and 1-0 pitchers duels even with both teams throwing their 3 and 4 starters.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 21, 2013 20:29:58 GMT -5
Looks like Gomes is going again Game 1 as Farrell just not didn't commit to it but said something to the effect that he didn't want to mess with the "momentum" that the Game 6 line-up created. So there's that. I've been one of Farrell's biggest supporters, but this continued Gomes mancrush is supremely disappointing. I feel genuinely bad for Nava who did way more than enough to secure an everyday position in left field this year.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 21, 2013 20:34:03 GMT -5
What do you guys think of this match up?
I think it should be a great series. I was looking back through the stats on the old '04, '07 teams and one think I think really stands out about this team is the strength of our 3/4 starters. Stronger than the Cards for sure. Wainwright and Wacha are very good but so are Lester and Buch. Plus we don't have to worry about Kershaw or Greinke. I have a lot of friends that are Dodgers fans so personally I won't get trolled too bad if we lose.
Lackey and Peavy are much better pitchers than 04 Wakefield or Lowe were. Granted, Lowe pitched well in the series but I forgot how awful his regular season stats were that year.
Crazy to think the 2004 Cardinals won 105 games and got throttled.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2013 22:32:22 GMT -5
A boring but interesting fact, I live in the Midwest and it is about to get COLD! Game time tempatures could get to the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday in St Louis. The St Louis home stand could end up being some 2-1 and 1-0 pitchers duels even with both teams throwing their 3 and 4 starters. FWIW, St. Louis games are Saturday-Sunday-Monday.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 21, 2013 22:50:30 GMT -5
A boring but interesting fact, I live in the Midwest and it is about to get COLD! Game time tempatures could get to the mid 30s on Friday and Saturday in St Louis. The St Louis home stand could end up being some 2-1 and 1-0 pitchers duels even with both teams throwing their 3 and 4 starters. FWIW, St. Louis games are Saturday-Sunday-Monday. From the National Weather Service - where all the other services get their un-modified forecasts from: Day/Night
| Forecast | Saturday | Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. | Saturday Night | Mostly clear, with a low around 41. | Sunday | Sunny, with a high near 56. | Sunday Night | Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. | Monday | Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
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This is less accurate more than a few days out, but the super-computers that do the modelling are fast enough, now, that they're quite good even beyond five days. Not too many years ago, that was the limit beyond which they were no better than 50/50. So this doesn't look too bad. All those warm bodies in the stands might even add a degree or two to this.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 21, 2013 22:55:30 GMT -5
What do you guys think of this match up? I think it should be a great series. I was looking back through the stats on the old '04, '07 teams and one think I think really stands out about this team is the strength of our 3/4 starters. Stronger than the Cards for sure. Wainwright and Wacha are very good but so are Lester and Buch. Plus we don't have to worry about Kershaw or Greinke. I have a lot of friends that are Dodgers fans so personally I won't get trolled too bad if we lose. Lackey and Peavy are much better pitchers than 04 Wakefield or Lowe were. Granted, Lowe pitched well in the series but I forgot how awful his regular season stats were that year. Crazy to think the 2004 Cardinals won 105 games and got throttled. This is a tough matchup, worse than dealing with the Dodgers. The Dodgers had injury issues throughout the lineup. Hanley was hurting, Kemp was out for the season, and the lineup includes Crawford and Gonzalez, who we all know are overpaid and overrated. Greinke and Kershaw were the two big factors to worry about. But it's not like you get a break dealing with Wainright (who I think will be MVP of the Series) and Wacha. The Cardinals are different than Detroit in that they have two top-flight starters but the other two starters, Kelly and Lynn, are hittable. The Tigers were supposed to have a great 2 - 6 spot in the order but Cabrera was injured and Fielder could have been name the MVP of the ALCS for the Red Sox, he was that bad. But the point is the rest of the lineup had a bunch of dead spots. The Cards don't have too many "marquis" hitters, but they have a solid lineup that is short on easy outs. I'd say CF is so-so, and SS is very weak. Other than that, they're pretty good. They don't have a big bopper per se, although I think Adams can be one, but they can hit and work the count. And they're getting Craig back who can DH, and if he's healthy enough, he'll be an asset. They have a catcher who can stop the Red Sox running game. They also have a bullpen that shouldn't implode the way the Tigers bullpen did and Rosenthal isn't Fernando Rodney. If the Sox fall behind 5-0, they'll very likely lose. I had hoped the Dodgers behind Greinke would push the Cards to 7 games so that Wainright wouldn't pitch in the Series until Game 3, but that didn't happen. My hope was that either Kelly or Lynn would have to pitch at Fenway which would have boded well for the Sox, but now the Cards' top two pitchers pitch at Fenway and if they're anything like Sanchez and Scherzer were last week, the Sox could struggle at Fenway. Once they go to St. Louis, you'd think the Sox would actually have the starting pitching matchup advantage with Buchholz vs Kelly and Peavy vs Lynn. Anyways I think the Sox need to at least split at Fenway and win either both of Buchholz vs Kelly and Peavy vs Lynn or something like that. I think Peavy's start is a big start in this series and I hope he pitches like he did in Tampa. I also hope the Sox move up Bogaerts in the order, particularly in St. Louis. My guess is we see Gomes bat 5th in St. Louis, as with Napoli out of the lineup, Farrell will want a right-handed power hitter behind Ortiz, although I think most of us would prefer Bogaerts, who I think will bat 7th, behind Salty, and ahead of Drew. I think the Cards, between their current team on the field, and what their farm system looks like, are the premier franchise in baseball. They will be a favorite to win the Series for along time to come. This Sox team is a veteran team, the most incredible Red Sox "bridge" team of all time. This is the moment they need to seize to shine. Eventually Bogaerts and other youngsters will be integrated onto the club and they'll have a much different look within a couple of years. I would say that in 2004 the Sox caught a big break that the one true "ace" the Cards had, Chris Carpenter, was injured, and as a result, the Sox knocked their pitching around, neutralized Pujols, and totally shut down Rolen and Edmonds. The way the Sox were playing by time they got to the Series, the Cardinals could have gone 162-0 and still had no chance to beat the Red Sox. They were on a mission, the ultimate mission. I hope this year's team is on that same mission. They have been a pleasure to watch. I just hope this special team has four more wins in them, but the Cards are every bit as good as the Sox, so we'll see. If the Sox do win, they'll have earned it as they beat the strongest Wild Card team, and the strongest division winner (sorry, Detroit was better than Oakland despite the record).
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2013 22:59:56 GMT -5
I would be all for an inflatable canopy to cover ball parks during inclement weather. They woulg keep rain out and even retain a bit of the heat. These would have to be inlated and floated into place above the lights when needed - a 10-20 min process - and be secured by composite cables. The system would in let in the escence of the weather (temp, winkd can get though but not to large effect) but keep out rain & snow.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 21, 2013 23:38:39 GMT -5
I would be all for an inflatable canopy to cover ball parks during inclement weather. They woulg keep rain out and even retain a bit of the heat. These would have to be inlated and floated into place above the lights when needed - a 10-20 min process - and be secured by composite cables. The system would in let in the escence of the weather (temp, winkd can get though but not to large effect) but keep out rain & snow. What a great idea, though I can't imagine a place like that ever being built...
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2013 4:50:01 GMT -5
I thought I'd update Victorino's numbers versus RHP as a RHB, including the post-season, and then I got carried away. Here's everyone versus RHP.
.332 / .380 / .492 Ellsbury .289 / .377 / .484 Victorino .277 / .344 / .371 Pedroia .326 / .433 / .628 Ortiz .251 / .354 / .474 Napoli .322 / .412 / .480 Nava .250 / .326 / .387 Gomes .289 / .345 / .505 Saltalamacchia .200 / .310 / .400 Bogaerts .199 / .240 / .398 Middlebrooks .266 / .358 / .465 Drew .189 / .295 / .302 Ross .291 / .357 / .520 Carp
That's right, if Nava were starting as he ought to, our #3 hitter would have the lowest SA and 2nd lowest OBP (perhaps only because of X's SSS) of the nine.
A reasonable optimal batting order vs. RHP, which you of course will never see:
Ellsbury Victorino Ortiz Napoli Nava Pedroia Saltalamacchia Bogaerts Drew
How pissed would Pedey be if you told him he was batting 6th? Seriously, though, that lineup would be viable, and scarier than the one they're using, with or without Gomes.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2013 5:58:24 GMT -5
A reasonable optimal batting order vs. RHP, which you of course will never see: Ellsbury Victorino Ortiz Napoli Nava Pedroia Saltalamacchia Bogaerts Drew How pissed would Pedey be if you told him he was batting 6th? Seriously, though, that lineup would be viable, and scarier than the one they're using, with or without Gomes. And, as the research shows and I'm sure you know, would probably only be marginally better than the one they're using, to the point that it'd be negligible.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2013 6:41:51 GMT -5
A reasonable optimal batting order vs. RHP, which you of course will never see: Ellsbury Victorino Ortiz Napoli Nava Pedroia Saltalamacchia Bogaerts Drew How pissed would Pedey be if you told him he was batting 6th? Seriously, though, that lineup would be viable, and scarier than the one they're using, with or without Gomes. And, as the research shows and I'm sure you know, would probably only be marginally better than the one they're using, to the point that it'd be negligible. Marginal, yes. Negligible, absolutely not. An individual pinch-hit appearance, if you actually crunch the numbers, is at least as marginal. Sending up a guy with a .340 OBP to hit for a guy with a .290 is something we absolutely scream for and piss and moan when the manager is too stubborn to do it. And of course, it is moot nineteen times out of twenty. Games and series are won by the accumulation of such tiny marginal advantages. Optimizing the lineup is one of them. Folks are fond of analyzing the impact of different batting orders, concluding that it might only be worth 5 or 10 runs in a season (it's quite a bit more if you recognize that hitters perform better or worse depending on their slot, and need to be matched to their favorite), and then calling it overrated. Well, teams will pay $3 or $4 million on the free agent market for an advantage like that. Having said that, as just noted, my first law of lineup optimization is to put guys where they are comfortable and hit best. That's why Bill Mueller hit 8th most of the time two years after he won the batting title (literally), and ended up with a higher OPS+ despite declining skills, and it's why I have Nava 5th in that lineup, instead of maybe leadoff (with Ellsbury 3rd). You'd have to determine that Pedroia would hit just as well 6th as 2nd or 3rd before dropping him down.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 22, 2013 7:07:02 GMT -5
Jmie, serious question... Do you believe that a players mental state has anything to do with performance?
I ask for a couple reasons, but with regards to the Morales question, to me his numbers are important, but more important is what we think the chances are that he'll be able to perform up to his abilities. It seems to me that some people believe these guys are robots who have the same odds of performing regardless of the situation. Morales, looked like a lost cause on the mound. Not career wise, but he looked like he has stuff to work out in the short-term. I realize one can simply say his mechanics are off that's physical, not mental and there could be some truth to that, but what's causing them to be off. He looked like a nervous wreck on the mound. To be fair to him he didn't pitch a lot this year which hurts; I don't think the WS is the time to let a middle reliever try to get it together. We really don't know how anyone else would do but Morales seems to be in a funk so I think it's better to go with another option.
In reality, we are talking a low usage guy, but it can still make the difference as we almost saw Saturday.
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Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2013 7:39:05 GMT -5
You're conflating cause and effect. He looked nervous because he just walked a guy on four pitches (three of which weren't close) to load the bases with the score 1-0 in Game 6 of the ALCS. For whatever reason, he just had zero fastball command in that outing. If that's something the front office thinks will linger, they'd obviously be better off with one of their other pitchers. But if that's likely to just be a one-game blip, Morales is the best LOOGY available.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 22, 2013 7:48:31 GMT -5
You're conflating cause and effect. He looked nervous because he just walked a guy on four pitches (three of which weren't close) to load the bases with the score 1-0 in Game 6 of the ALCS. For whatever reason, he just had zero fastball command in that outing. If that's something the front office thinks will linger, they'd obviously be better off with one of their other pitchers. But if that's likely to just be a one-game blip, Morales is the best LOOGY available. Maybe - maybe not... However, do you think a pitchers nervousness whenever it occurs can affect how he performs or does mental state have nothing to do with it? Honest question. Forget about Morales, just in general. It's a real question, nothing behind it in an asshole sort of way.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 22, 2013 8:21:29 GMT -5
I think as long as we split the first two we should be okay. Wainwright is good but i'm really not sure he'll out pitch Lester this series. I think the Buchholz/wacha games be big. I like our chances in games 3/4.
In the Detroit series, Detroit had the starting pitching advantage pretty much every game. The Cards have some good hitters but they don't have any Miguel Cabreras we need to worry about.
I like our chances.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 22, 2013 8:24:17 GMT -5
Looks like Gomes is going again Game 1 as Farrell just not didn't commit to it but said something to the effect that he didn't want to mess with the "momentum" that the Game 6 line-up created. So there's that. THIS is a problem. Using a totally unmeasurable, etherial concept such as "momentum maintenance" to justify a player's place in the lineup is Stone Ages absurd. But beyond that, the Cardinals/Sox series is NOT the Detroit/Sox series. We have absolutely NO reason to expect it to be. We've witnessed in the past how a team's fortunes can change on a time from series to series (heck, from game to game.) And the Cardinals/Sox series figures to be much different from the one just completed. I do not expect the Cardinals' starters to show anything like the dominance that the Tigers' starters did. But the Cardinals' bullpen must be respected. We may be able to score off it here and there, but we cannot expect to pile on runs like we did in the just-completed series. Also, the Cardinals' lineup looks much deeper to me than a Detroit lineup with Cabrera somewhat muted by injuries and Fielder slumping. Those issues for Detroit dragged them down with us in dealing with starters. We can't expect the same lack of production against our starters from the Cardinals lineup. Ergo, it seems to me that it is going to be important to try to build innings, turn the lineup over, and craft leads against the Cardinals' starters, rather than designing the lineup thinking about a single swing against a mistake as our only hope of scoring in the early-to-mid game. Clearly, this argues for Xander to start in place of Middlebrooks (or Drew, but I agree with those who think Drew's defense keeps him in the lineup -- and it is precisely a player like Drew who may find himself and be a tough out in a series like this.) But it equally argues for Nava vs. Gomes. This fixation with Gomes is not only illogically stubborn; it may cost the team valuable OBP depth in this series, where avoiding outs, especially against the starters, could well be the single most important key to success. I have felt sympathy for Nava in his lesser presence in the earlier series, after the year he crafted. But at this point my feelings morph from sympathy to annoyance. This could be sabotaging the team's chances in what all indications are will be an extremely tough matchup.
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