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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by nebraska4sox on Nov 1, 2013 16:28:26 GMT -5
Have read the Mets are out of the running, because they don't want to spend the money that it would be to get Ells for just one player.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 16:30:32 GMT -5
The thing is, during the offseason, pretty much every major league team (except the Astros and a handful of others) can and should be able to make an argument to a free agent that they can be contenders the following year. The Mariners can argue that they have frontline pitching (Felix, Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), exciting young position players (Kyle Seager, Brad Miller, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Mike Zunino), and an ownership ready to spend. The Mets and (to a lesser extent) Cubs can make a similar argument.
It's also quite presumptuous to think that the thrill of the playoff chase will matter more than an extra $20m or so. I mean, maybe Ellsbury thinks that way, but most baseball players don't, as evidenced by the rarity of signings that happen despite another team offering significantly more money.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 16:45:57 GMT -5
Think of that potential 20 per you just proposed there for instance JMEI. Would that money be better spent on say.. An extension for Jon Lester?
Let's go a step further.. We have been posting a bit on options not picked up.. Say the team could sign a veteran, like a Gutierrez, or a Young for 8mAAV in Young's case and Gutierrez for around 5mAAV. One of those with JBJ..
Would you still propose going with giving Ells 20m AAV over 6y (easy) and knowing Boras is going to push past the new year for 7? Holding up the teams plans while both Young and Gutierrez sign elsewhere?
It gets interesting.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 1, 2013 16:50:56 GMT -5
Yeah I wonder if the FO is committed to JBJ for next season. He was iffy this season in limited time.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 1, 2013 17:47:10 GMT -5
Yeah I wonder if the FO is committed to JBJ for next season. He was iffy this season in limited time. Next season is the perfect time to commit to JBJ (and WMB). They get at least a half-season pass from the fans for winning the World Series.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 1, 2013 17:54:10 GMT -5
I'm with Guidas in thinking that non-contenders have no chance of signing him. The excitement of playing on the best team in baseball, in front of the most passionate fans: once you've actually experienced that, you would want a comparable situation. Combining various sources of speculation, contenders who might be interested are the Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rangers. I don't see the Dodgers (listed by Heyman) moving both Kemp and Ethier. The Yankees have two pretty good outfielders on their roster in Gardner and Soriano, neither of whom has ever played an inning in RF, but who are both free agents after 2014. Would the Yankees sign Ellsbury to play RF for a year? It seems like a long shot, and it's also hard to see Ellsbury going to the Yankees with all their sideshows, even though the park would be a good fit. In fact, it's hard to see them as a real contender for the next few years. The Rangers have two terrific defenders in the platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, both of whom can hit a little. Martin's been a top 100 prospect and it would be surprising if he wasn't given another year to improve at the plate after a decent rookie season. The Nationals would have to trade Denard Span, who was 10th in fWAR among CF (400 PA). His contract is very affordable, so that would be doable, but it seems like a bit of a longshot. The Cardinals are an obvious terrific fit (as they are for Drew). They've got Oscar Taveras replacing Beltran, so the latter's money would be available, and an excess of young starting pitching that they can trade to fill any other holes. And they're almost certainly the club that comes closest to matching us in projected competitiveness and fan passion. I could see this coming down to us vs. the Cardinals, and they don't seem like the sort of team that would grossly overpay. It's an interesting thought, but I dunno. Roger Clemens signed with the Blue Jays a year after the Red Sox were a playoff team. Mo Vaughn went from the playoffs to an Angels team that hadn't made the playoffs in 12 years. Maybe Ellsbury is wired differently, but if the money is a big difference it's hard to say, and hard to fault him. He has two rings, after all, so if he wants to get paid more power to him. Plus, anyone who has the money to sign Ellsbury will either a) be a contender (Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals), or b) work hard to sell to Ellsbury that they are near contention and that he will be a vital piece (Mariners, Cubs, Mets). For the Mariners or Rangers, being the centerpiece of their first-ever championship club enticing too. Same with the Cubs, who haven't won very recently. It's all a sales game, you know?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 1, 2013 18:42:32 GMT -5
The thing is, during the offseason, pretty much every major league team (except the Astros and a handful of others) can and should be able to make an argument to a free agent that they can be contenders the following year. The Mariners can argue that they have frontline pitching (Felix, Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), exciting young position players (Kyle Seager, Brad Miller, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Mike Zunino), and an ownership ready to spend. The Mets and (to a lesser extent) Cubs can make a similar argument. It's also quite presumptuous to think that the thrill of the playoff chase will matter more than an extra $20m or so. I mean, maybe Ellsbury thinks that way, but most baseball players don't, as evidenced by the rarity of signings that happen despite another team offering significantly more money. Certainly I'm not naive enough to think the "thrill of a playoff chase" makes up for $20M or more, and anyone who is in a competitive commodity-base business should be able to sell potential. But Ellsbury will have choices, and this is probably his last chance to make not just huge money, but to define his career. If he is a Zach Greinke type - Greinke who admittedly earlier this year that he didn't care what team he went to as long as they paid him the most money - then he will go to highest bidder. Then again, after having a taste of 162 games of suck/mediocrity/dysfunctional management & clubhouse, as well as being to the top twice, he may be of the mind to at least figure that into the calculous. Boras has done this as well, and I remember reading how he offered Carlos Beltran to the Yankees for almost $20M less AFTER coming to agreement with the Mets, but the Yanks said no. The reason ultimately Boras offered this "discount" was more opportunity for success, which meant more opportunities for endorsements and other non-contract ventures. Then again, remember - this is the same agent who said he would give the Sox a final bid on Damon but never did because he said if he could place Yankee-killer Johnny Damon on the Yankees, it would show all the other players in baseball the leverage he could give them. Also recall that it took the Sox nearly the length of the Damon deal to find a good replacement for CF (Ellsbury).
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 1, 2013 19:34:28 GMT -5
He didn't look great in the couple of weeks he played CF. But, don't discount a move of Victorino to CF. If we can get him healthy, and keep him from running into things. He might be our CF and lead-off hitter. We could always deal for a RF.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2013 19:41:30 GMT -5
Why wouldn't Ellsbury possibly look at the ups and downs here as justification for leaving... After all, if it can suck playing here for a couple years then it can suck anywhere right? Point is trying to put a players mindset on things like this is a losing proposition. Pure speculation. We don't even have any meaningless fodder from him about loving it here and hoping he's back.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 21:04:35 GMT -5
Honestly the Philadelphia Phillies to me seem like a possible scenario for the listed teams in terms of baseball related credentials.
Firstly the Phillies currently have a TV deal paying 35 mil per year but are expected to sign a new deal within the next month generating approximately 150 mil + per year creating a large source for salary expenditures.
Secondly we know Amaro loves to make a big splash.
Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs.
The counter point to this is how the team feels about Ben Revere. He is much cheaper and under control for 4 more seasons. He also offers speed and decent defense in CF. Therefore it would not appear to be the most effective expenditure of money for a team that could use a little more pop.
He does however look like an upgrade over Mayberry JR (29), Wells (28) and Bernadina (29) and Ellsbury could be used in RF with D. Brown in LF. Choo might be a better target however.
All this to say don't rule out Philadelphia as an alternate to Boston.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 1, 2013 21:10:00 GMT -5
Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive a year older in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs. FTFY. But yeah, I wouldn't put anything past Amaro.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 1, 2013 21:21:23 GMT -5
Honestly the Philadelphia Phillies to me seem like a possible scenario for the listed teams in terms of baseball related credentials. Firstly the Phillies currently have a TV deal paying 35 mil per year but are expected to sign a new deal within the next month generating approximately 150 mil + per year creating a large source for salary expenditures. Secondly we know Amaro loves to make a big splash. Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs. The counter point to this is how the team feels about Ben Revere. He is much cheaper and under control for 4 more seasons. He also offers speed and decent defense in CF. Therefore it would not appear to be the most effective expenditure of money for a team that could use a little more pop. He does however look like an upgrade over Mayberry JR (29), Wells (28) and Bernadina (29) and Ellsbury could be used in RF with D. Brown in LF. Choo might be a better target however. All this to say don't rule out Philadelphia as an alternate to Boston. Ellsbury doesn't really have the arm for a full-time gig in RF, does he?
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 1, 2013 21:27:55 GMT -5
He didn't look great in the couple of weeks he played CF. But, don't discount a move of Victorino to CF. If we can get him healthy, and keep him from running into things. He might be our CF and lead-off hitter. We could always deal for a RF. JBJ will be an above-average CF. Shane-O is a terrific defensive RF. Why would you want to reduce your defensive value at two outfield spots? Offense shouldn't be an issue.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2013 21:36:22 GMT -5
Honestly the Philadelphia Phillies to me seem like a possible scenario for the listed teams in terms of baseball related credentials. Firstly the Phillies currently have a TV deal paying 35 mil per year but are expected to sign a new deal within the next month generating approximately 150 mil + per year creating a large source for salary expenditures. Secondly we know Amaro loves to make a big splash. Thirdly the Phillies should be competitive in the NL East next season offering the potential to return to the playoffs. The counter point to this is how the team feels about Ben Revere. He is much cheaper and under control for 4 more seasons. He also offers speed and decent defense in CF. Therefore it would not appear to be the most effective expenditure of money for a team that could use a little more pop. He does however look like an upgrade over Mayberry JR (29), Wells (28) and Bernadina (29) and Ellsbury could be used in RF with D. Brown in LF. Choo might be a better target however. All this to say don't rule out Philadelphia as an alternate to Boston. Ellsbury doesn't really have the arm for a full-time gig in RF, does he? Perhaps not. Not sure if Brown in RF and Ellsbury in LF works as an alt or not. Again Choo may be a better fit for Philly but Amaro isn't alwyays logical in his decision making.
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 1, 2013 22:47:53 GMT -5
Ellsbury can talk about wanting to stay in Boston all he wants, loving the town, saying he has really enjoyed the place and saying it's the best place for him and his family to be etc.. The only pertinent fact of the matter, is that Ellsbury dumped his original agent Joe Urban during his rookie season and hired Boras for *1* reason, that being for this very day that is here.. Too extract the most money he can get via FA.. This isn't a Varitek who had Boras all along, even before being drafted.. Ells dumped his original agent to get Boras making his goals known to all. This play is going to be for a money grab, put all words spoken on the trash heap and burn them. If he comes back? It's because Boston gave him the most money and NO other reason. Didn't Jake actually dump Joe when Urbon jumped to CAA Sports! Urbon was from the northwest (Seattle actually) and had a nick for signing bonuses. So I don't think dumping Joe was just about Boras and money.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2013 23:26:02 GMT -5
I'm with Guidas in thinking that non-contenders have no chance of signing him. The excitement of playing on the best team in baseball, in front of the most passionate fans: once you've actually experienced that, you would want a comparable situation. ... I could see this coming down to us vs. the Cardinals, and they don't seem like the sort of team that would grossly overpay. It's an interesting thought, but I dunno. Roger Clemens signed with the Blue Jays a year after the Red Sox were a playoff team. Mo Vaughn went from the playoffs to an Angels team that hadn't made the playoffs in 12 years. Maybe Ellsbury is wired differently, but if the money is a big difference it's hard to say, and hard to fault him. He has two rings, after all, so if he wants to get paid more power to him. Plus, anyone who has the money to sign Ellsbury will either a) be a contender (Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals), or b) work hard to sell to Ellsbury that they are near contention and that he will be a vital piece (Mariners, Cubs, Mets). For the Mariners or Rangers, being the centerpiece of their first-ever championship club enticing too. Same with the Cubs, who haven't won very recently. It's all a sales game, you know? I think you're entirely missing the point we were making. It has nothing to do with Ellsbury being "wired differently," and everything with his immediate past experience being completely different from the comps you tossed out -- and essentially almost everyone else who has ever been a free agent. Let's define the "team situation" as the how well the team did the last season, how pleasant the playing experience was, and the hopes for the future based on the perception of the underlying talent (so teams that clearly won the WS on smoke and mirrors get docked) and farm system strength. That's a reasonable definition in terms of the psychology of what makes a team situation attractive. There's a bell curve of team situations. Most FA have spent their last few years in a relatively narrow band of that bell curve. They haven't experienced too much variation. And the human brain, when making decisions, tends to ignore or downplay variables which, in the past, have been relatively constant. In fact, it's very bad at imagining the areas outside. Most players have had the experience that "all clubhouses are more or less alike" and "any team can win in a given year." Jacoby Ellsbury may well be coming off the best team situation in the history of MLB. The Red Sox were the second-best sabermetric team in baseball, the most winning regular-season team, and won the WS (without ever playing a winner-take-all game). That's a rare combo. They have a top-three farm system, if not the best, including the best prospect in baseball. That's an almost unheard-of combo with the preceding. And their clubhouse (from all reports) and fan support were historically good as well. The 2012 Red Sox, in contrast, finished last and had a famously dysfunctional clubhouse where the manager was literally not on speaking terms with his pitching coach. While not the all-time outlier, it's way, way at the other end of the bell curve. So Ellsbury, unlike almost every other free agent ever, has experienced in the last two years how terrible it can be to play for a last-place team in an awful clubhouse, and how great it can be to play for a dominant WS champion with an incredible group of people. It's basic human psychology that this factor will be highly emphasized in his decision-making process. You're going to balk at giving up what you've got, and fear going back to what you so recently escaped. There's one halfway good comp to Ellsbury. Kirby Puckett is the only other big-time free agent to have been part of a last place-to-WS champ transformation. And the championship was a year in his past. He rather famously turned down more money from us to re-sign with the Twins. And finally, unlike the Twins, the team looks like a potential dynasty over the term of Ellsbury's new contract. That's not going to have the emotional weight of the last two seasons, but to the extent that rational assessments enter into this decision, it's all good and then some, essentially the frosting on the cake. It intellectually reinforces the natural hope that 2013 might be repeated. Edit: to sum up the psychology, the reasons the vast majority of players go to the highest bidder is that all other things seem more or less equal. The contender you played for could be a .500 team in a few years, while that mediocre team dangling the big contract is certainly credible as a future champ. And a clubhouse is a clubhouse, there are good guys and bad guys. And most managers are reasonable types. None of this is Jacoby Ellsbury's recent experience.
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Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2013 0:54:04 GMT -5
Edit: to sum up the psychology, the reasons the vast majority of players go to the highest bidder is that all other things seem more or less equal. The contender you played for could be a .500 team in a few years, while that mediocre team dangling the big contract is certainly credible as a future champ. And a clubhouse is a clubhouse, there are good guys and bad guys. And most managers are reasonable types. None of this is Jacoby Ellsbury's recent experience. Isn't it? Didn't he go from a juggernaut of a team with a bright future and a great clubhouse culture (the 07 squad) to a playoff contender (08-09) to another juggernaut (with a worse clubhouse culture) (11) to a total collapse (11-12) to another juggernaut (13)? All this under the same ownership and mostly the same general manager/manager. What makes you think his takeaway is going to be that the 2014-19 Red Sox are somehow going to break the trend and be a consistent contender? It seems just as likely that his takeaway will be that a lot of factors outside your control will determine the success or failure of a team, and you should just get the most dollars possible. I mean, your argument is basically that the one-year turnaround is going to sentimentally blind him to the reality that team success comes and goes. Does that sound like Jacoby or Boras? I think this whole attempt at psychoanalysis is reading far, far too much into things, especially when there are a number of more definite factors at play that we can analyze.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2013 4:58:40 GMT -5
Edit: to sum up the psychology, the reasons the vast majority of players go to the highest bidder is that all other things seem more or less equal. The contender you played for could be a .500 team in a few years, while that mediocre team dangling the big contract is certainly credible as a future champ. And a clubhouse is a clubhouse, there are good guys and bad guys. And most managers are reasonable types. None of this is Jacoby Ellsbury's recent experience. Isn't it? Didn't he go from a juggernaut of a team with a bright future and a great clubhouse culture (the 07 squad) to a playoff contender (08-09) to another juggernaut (with a worse clubhouse culture) (11) to a total collapse (11-12) to another juggernaut (13)? All this under the same ownership and mostly the same general manager/manager. What makes you think his takeaway is going to be that the 2014-19 Red Sox are somehow going to break the trend and be a consistent contender? It seems just as likely that his takeaway will be that a lot of factors outside your control will determine the success or failure of a team, and you should just get the most dollars possible. I mean, your argument is basically that the one-year turnaround is going to sentimentally blind him to the reality that team success comes and goes. Does that sound like Jacoby or Boras? I think this whole attempt at psychoanalysis is reading far, far too much into things, especially when there are a number of more definite factors at play that we can analyze. You're approaching this as if it's a rational decision, when (like every other decision people make, BTW) it isn't. What just happened is immensely more influential than an entire history, viewed neutrally. "This was great, I love it here, I really don't want to leave": there's a pretty good chance that, because of the last two years, that feeling is quite a bit stronger for Ellsbury than the typical FA leaving a good situation. And it is feelings that determine decisions, not rationality. Rational analysis may produce feelings, and when we try to "decide rationally," what we are trying to do is recognize which feelings might not be based on reality, and minimize them, and replace them with feelings generated by the rational analysis. (All of which is easier said than done; if feelings were easily amenable to override by rationality, no one would have any fear of flying.) In Jacoby's case, though, I don't see where his incentive is to try to minimize the warm fuzzy he has from 2013. (Opposing GMs will try do that in their sales pitches.) This take on the nature of decision making, BTW, is mainstream, cutting-edge psychology / neuroscience, not something I'm simply deciding to say because I feel like it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 2, 2013 6:54:54 GMT -5
I'm with Guidas in thinking that non-contenders have no chance of signing him. The excitement of playing on the best team in baseball, in front of the most passionate fans: once you've actually experienced that, you would want a comparable situation. .... It's an interesting thought, but I dunno. Roger Clemens signed with the Blue Jays a year after the Red Sox were a playoff team. Mo Vaughn went from the playoffs to an Angels team that hadn't made the playoffs in 12 years. Maybe Ellsbury is wired differently, but if the money is a big difference it's hard to say, and hard to fault him. He has two rings, after all, so if he wants to get paid more power to him. Plus, anyone who has the money to sign Ellsbury will either a) be a contender (Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals), or b) work hard to sell to Ellsbury that they are near contention and that he will be a vital piece (Mariners, Cubs, Mets). For the Mariners or Rangers, being the centerpiece of their first-ever championship club enticing too. Same with the Cubs, who haven't won very recently. It's all a sales game, you know? Andre Dawson signed with the Red Sox because he wanted a chance to win. Then someone pointed out that they had finished 7th the year before and he was surprised.
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Post by chud on Nov 2, 2013 7:06:59 GMT -5
I know a lot of people make the automatic connection between having boras as an agent and seeking every last dollar, as seems to be his strategy. But I wanted to make one point and reference one thing in regard to Ellsbury specifically. Michael Jordan said it best when it was talked about that David Falk was driving him to another team for more money, Jordan said in a tv interview, "David works for me, i don't work for David". And although Boras would advise his clients on a strategy to make the most money, they similarly can direct him on what actions to take. Varitek told him not to negotiate w/ any other teams, other than the sox during one negotiation and he did it...Weaver signed in season for below market money because he wanted to stay w/ the Angels. So Ellsbury not Boras is in control...Now, although i don't have the link i remember reading an article when ellsbury switched to Boras the reason he gave...He said something to the effect of the boras corp handling everything for his players in terms of scheduling workouts, clinics, medicals, basically everything so that all he had to do was worry about playing...I remember that vividly...so, although we only really see the money side of boras, i'm betting he offers his clients a lot more than that to keep them happy and some of that may be as important/more important than money to some...maybe not for the lower end clients where money is more important, but possibly for the higher end clients...just a thought
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 2, 2013 7:21:36 GMT -5
I was about to say that I agree with Eric on the nature of decision-making, but it's probably more accurate to say that Eric's right about the current thinking of the nature of decision-making. At various times over the last few years, I dived deeply into the research on this stuff ... but, when it comes to Ellsbury, everything from there is pure speculation with very little basis in reality. We simply have no way of knowing what Ellsbury feels about his current situation or the lure of the various factors in the decision. I mean, maybe the Clubhouse Shangri La of this year is hugely important to him. Or maybe the pull of the Pacific Northwest is very strong with him. Maybe he's always had an awe of the Yankee pinstripes. Maybe he gets incredibly moved by the idea of making the most money he can and settling the financial affairs of the next couple generations of his family. Who knows?
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 2, 2013 7:22:09 GMT -5
Boras has already come out and made huge comps for Jacoby and noted the number of teams interested in him. Boras works for Ellsbury but, if Ellsbury had told him only to seek a deal with the Red Sox, he would not be taking this public approach.
He is going to the highest bidder, period, and wishcasting is not going to change that fact.
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Post by godot on Nov 2, 2013 7:25:56 GMT -5
If we was told to only make a deal with the Sox, Boras would hype other interest to boast the offer. He is going to do this regardless. Seems we have speculated on all different scenarios. It is a waiting game now.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 2, 2013 8:55:57 GMT -5
Talk radio yesterday mentioned that the Sox had leaked the fact that they made substantial offers to Ells after the 2010 and 2011 seasons for a long term contract. This was their way of justifying to the adoring public that they made a strong effort to re-sign him.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 2, 2013 9:21:45 GMT -5
Boras has already come out and made huge comps for Jacoby and noted the number of teams interested in him. Boras works for Ellsbury but, if Ellsbury had told him only to seek a deal with the Red Sox, he would not be taking this public approach. He is going to the highest bidder, period, and wishcasting is not going to change that fact.Maybe, but this statement is as speculative as people saying he may take a bit less to stay in Boston.
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