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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2013 21:02:34 GMT -5
BTW, one of the reasons you hire Scott Boras as your agent is that he has a track record of getting surprisingly large contracts even when there doesn't seem to be that much competition for the player. To this day no one knows who was bidding against the Red Sox for J.D. Drew, but the Sox clearly felt there was somebody, because their original expectation was never for five years, but for four (and if they had gone four years at that AAV, they would have nailed his value on the nose).
IOW, the surprising lack of credible suitors certainly increases the odds of Ellsbury returning here, but that does not necessarily mean it decreases the total value of the expected contract.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 21, 2013 1:50:13 GMT -5
Does anyone think that a team's chances for the post-season will play any significant role in Ellsbury's decision? Most of the teams being mentioned as possible destinations have little chance of making the post-season anytime soon, with, or without him. Boston almost certainly will contend, and Texas could, but I don't see Seattle, the Mets, or even the Yankees being real contenders in the next couple of years at least. There's a great, detailed discussion on this very point online already somewhere. You may have to hunt around to find out, but if my memory is correct, it's at the user forums in a place called "SoxProspects.com." I think the thread was called something like "Where will Jacoby Ellsbury sign?" Sorry, I missed you post that was quite good on this subject. There seems to be a general belief that because he has Boros as his agent he automatically will sign with the team that pays him the most. I think Boros is a terrific agent, and if I were a player, he would be my agent. I think he does his very best to represent what the player wants. I have no idea what Ellsbury wants and I don't assume that because he picked Boros it means that he wants the most money, period. It actually is more reasonable to assume that he wants the best representation possible, and Boros is the guy. With Texas taking on the Prince Fielder contract, I suspect they won't make a massive offer to Ellsbury. I wonder if he really wants to spend the rest of his good years wandering around the outfield for lousy teams? The Yankees might be the best possibility, but I suspect they won't pay the kind of money he is looking for. The Cubs may be a coming team, but they are a few years away, still. Maybe Theo will talk him into something. The Red Sox are his best option for making a lot of money, and getting a lot of accolades. Of course, the Sox have to make a really good offer. I don't know if they will do it. I would do it because I am not sold on Bradley, and, in the course of the season, Ellsbury had a really big impact on the team's performance. Plus, he is just fun to watch. '
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 22, 2013 10:49:57 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Nov 22, 2013 17:23:46 GMT -5
Any thought of STL getting involved is probably over.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 23, 2013 9:39:07 GMT -5
If Ellsbury does leave, the Sox sound inclined to just put him in cf and let him play. That's a good thing in my book. The scout's estimates look right on to me: better OBP; a little more power; great defense. They just need to blow off the sturm und drang from the media.
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Post by bighead on Nov 23, 2013 12:14:28 GMT -5
There's a great, detailed discussion on this very point online already somewhere. You may have to hunt around to find out, but if my memory is correct, it's at the user forums in a place called "SoxProspects.com." I think the thread was called something like "Where will Jacoby Ellsbury sign?" Sorry, I missed you post that was quite good on this subject. There seems to be a general belief that because he has Boros as his agent he automatically will sign with the team that pays him the most. I think Boros is a terrific agent, and if I were a player, he would be my agent. I think he does his very best to represent what the player wants. I have no idea what Ellsbury wants and I don't assume that because he picked Boros it means that he wants the most money, period. It actually is more reasonable to assume that he wants the best representation possible, and Boros is the guy. With Texas taking on the Prince Fielder contract, I suspect they won't make a massive offer to Ellsbury. I wonder if he really wants to spend the rest of his good years wandering around the outfield for lousy teams? The Yankees might be the best possibility, but I suspect they won't pay the kind of money he is looking for. The Cubs may be a coming team, but they are a few years away, still. Maybe Theo will talk him into something. The Red Sox are his best option for making a lot of money, and getting a lot of accolades. Of course, the Sox have to make a really good offer. I don't know if they will do it. I would do it because I am not sold on Bradley, and, in the course of the season, Ellsbury had a really big impact on the team's performance. Plus, he is just fun to watch. ' Its hard to definitively say something like this because you can't get inside somebody else's head and know what is going on but it seems to me that players who retain Boras are more concerned with getting as much money as possible. I know there have been exceptions like Varitek but it seems more often than not players will go to whatever team pays the most regardless of the other factors like location and the team's chances of contending. Call me cynical but I don't think Michael Bourn went to Cleveland because he liked the city or thought they'd contend (even though they did) or Jayson Werth went to the Nats because he thought they were going to be the new power in the NL East. Those players went where the best contract was offered in my mind and that is their right. Of course a Stephen Drew or Adrian Beltre type of one year contract team strength and visibility may come into play, not to mention park dimensions that could favor the players swing, but not on a "long term, this may be my last huge deal" contract. Players also could put additional emphasis on contending when they are getting older and want the shot at the Series before they hang it up but Ellsbury already has two rings. What he doesn't have is a massive long term deal. I like Ellsbury and it would be good to retain him but the teams roster/payroll management goals don't seem to be in line with what I perceive as his desire for a huge AAV long term deal. Bradley is still green and has some room for improvement but his potential OBP, defense and cost make much more sense. Too much risk on the back end of what I'm guessing Ellsbury gets for a contract this offseason. Let the Bradley era begin…
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 23, 2013 13:40:53 GMT -5
For the most part, when Sox star players have been signed away by other teams, it hasn't worked all that well for the other team. The only one I can think of who did continue to perform well was Johnny Damon. For the most part, the Sox have been wise not to overpay players who have reached the back side of their careers.
Where the Sox have lost out big a few times was when they traded young players who then became stars for their new teams.
Ellsbury is going to be hard to replace, but signing him to a megadeal also has big risks. It probably makes more sense to give Bradley his shot, and try to stengthen another position.
I keep wondering what kind of OF Mookie Betts might be? He is shaping up as one of the most promising position prospects, but he won't play 2B for the Sox. I think he is the type of player who the Sox might trade and regret doing it later.
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Post by marrcus on Nov 26, 2013 4:12:13 GMT -5
I don't assume that because he picked Boros it means that he wants the most money, period.
I do (not just because of Boros). I really belive the top $$$ will get Jake. Just like the Mets getting Pedro. I'm not saying it's bad but most players are about the money and can't turn down a better deal. Even if the chance to sign with a better team is there.
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Post by costpet on Nov 26, 2013 9:30:43 GMT -5
I don't think you have to worry about Jacoby signing with the NYY until the ARod decision is final. If the Yanks have to pay him his big money next year, no way will they commit another 100+million for a CF when they already have a good one. But, if they get out from under that contract, they might just throw him a huge deal. If Boras is smart, he'll wait until January to see what develops. And Boras is smart.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 26, 2013 10:16:57 GMT -5
I don't think you have to worry about Jacoby signing with the NYY until the ARod decision is final. If the Yanks have to pay him his big money next year, no way will they commit another 100+million for a CF when they already have a good one. But, if they get out from under that contract, they might just throw him a huge deal. If Boras is smart, he'll wait until January to see what develops. And Boras is smart. Gardener is only signed for one more year. Other than him, they have a very old OF (Soriano, Ichiro, Wells) but two of those will be gone after 2014, and one could be moved despite Wells & Ichiro having no trade clauses. I'd worry until they don't sign him.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 12:41:13 GMT -5
This is true guidas. I believe Soriano, Ichiro, V. Wells and Gardner are all free agents after this season. They will definitely be in the market for OF's.
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Post by jdb on Nov 27, 2013 21:48:19 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 27, 2013 22:12:23 GMT -5
I'm predicting that the Sox will not only re-sign Ellsbury, they'll give him seven years.
Their dirty secret will be that the total value will be what they think he'll be worth over six. Offering that amount over seven is actually smart, since it lowers the AAV and buys you what you believe will be a free year.
So the negotiating strategy is, you determine the most you'd ever offer for 6 years, and you negotiate for a 6 year deal, up to finally offering him rather more than 6/7 of that. And at the last moment you "cave in" and add a "seventh year" at a decent annual value.
For example, you go up to 6/128 and, if you have to, you then cave in and offer 7/144. But all along you're thinking he'll be worth $24M a year over the next six. (I'm guessing 5+% inflation plus a positive take on his power returning is going to drive his estimated annual value up beyond where most folks are guessing).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 27, 2013 22:46:22 GMT -5
I think you might be right on the numbers Eric but I think it's highly doubtful that the Redsox think he's worth that much to them. I'd appreciate your obvious insight but from my more limited number crunching ability he just looks like he would be of more value in a park like Yankee stadium. Or Phily.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 27, 2013 22:49:17 GMT -5
In comparison to someone like Choo, who is projected to cost less but have more success playing wall ball in Fenway according to his hit chart.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 23:02:26 GMT -5
You may be correct. I can visualize Ellsbury having a desire to return to the team he has had success with. The Red Sox would have no problem giving him fair value in the AAV column. The hindrance is the expected length and that would appear to be the only negotiating point. Additionally this likely pushes JBJr back to AAA for more seasoning or makes him available as a trade chip. It's not likely the team would run JB JR, Ellsbury and Victorino out as a starting OF devoid of power unless you argue the IF has more than enough with WMB, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz and a yet to be determined 1B (Napoli?) and C.
I do wonder where Seattle falls on Ellsbury. My first assumption was Seattle would be looking for more power bats because of the struggles in Safeco. But when I pulled up the team HR leaders I see 188 which ranks #2 in the AL and #2 in MLB. I then see a team with a .306 OBP ranking #12 in the AL and #26 in MLB. Plus a team with a .237 team BA ranking #15 in the AL and #28 in MLB. Add in a team with only 49 total SB ranking #14 in the AL and #28 in MLB. Since the walls came in it appears finding a player with power isn't so much of a concern anymore. And despite being #9 in MLB in BBs the team struggles getting players on base.
Ellsbury himself had more steals than the rest of the entire team. He is a consistent .290 to .300 hitter who won't bring a great deal of power but should add many 2Bs and 3Bs in Safeco. Also a solid argument for why Choo is a good fit for Seattle. To me this would make Cruz, Granderson, Napoli and Beltran poor fits. This is a team that should resign Morales and sign both Ellsbury and Choo on an overpay in $, years or both to get them to come. Both would set well at the top of the lineup, get on base and push Miller and Franklin to the bottom of the lineup where they're better suited. Last year Seattle operated with Ibanez in LF and a combo of Saunders and Ackley in CF. Instant upgrade both offensively and defensively.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 28, 2013 0:20:01 GMT -5
Additionally this likely pushes JBJr back to AAA for more seasoning or makes him available as a trade chip. It's not likely the team would run JB JR, Ellsbury and Victorino out as a starting OF devoid of power unless you argue the IF has more than enough with WMB, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz and a yet to be determined 1B (Napoli?) and C. What seems likely is that, if they re-sign Ellsbury, Bradley gets Napoli's roster spot, and you go into the season expecting him, Nava, and Carp to start about 100 games each. Carp 100 at 1B, Nava 60 at 1B and 40 in LF, Bradley 65 in LF and 35 in CF and RF when Ellsbury and Victorino are out. (Gomes has the remaining games in LF). The days when Bradley is in LF are largely on the road vs. RHP, where the big gain in OF defense offsets the loss in offense from removing either Carp or Nava from the lineup. The proportions, of course, are tweaked as you go along, based on performances.
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Post by soxfan06 on Nov 28, 2013 0:52:34 GMT -5
If the Red Sox do re-sign Ellsbury, I think they should consider using JBJ in a trade for an upgrade to LF or 1B.
Not sure an outfield of JBJ, Ellsbury and Victorino is a great idea. All of them are similar players.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 28, 2013 7:20:35 GMT -5
Having Ells, Vic, Nava, JBJ and Carp share OF and 1b means you have Nava platooning with two LHH. Plus Gomes is left out. I would actually think about trading Nava who though he is valuable even previous to us could be even more valuable to a team on a tighter budget. Having JBJ as a backup for two years is fine esp when one of the guys backed up is Vic
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 28, 2013 7:56:06 GMT -5
Considering the alternatives overall, and that they have stated they want more power from a corner OF in order to start JBJ in CF, it would seem likely that Nava is traded. I don't see them moving Victorino as his contract is pretty hefty and he's a good fit in RF. It's hard for me to see them pay the kind of dollars it will take to bring back Ellsbury, who doesn't look optimizes for Fenway in my opinion. It would seem that Beltran and Choo are far more obvious choices in terms of more power in a corner OF slot. Since they benched Nava in the playoffs, plus he's cheap and controlable for a while, he would seem to be the trade candidate. As a fellow lefty he's redundant at 1st base with Carp. One of those 2 guys ( Carp or Nava ) probably is on the way down Highway 95 somewhere.
And it's nothing against Nava at all. I'm a huge fan of his. I just don't see us continuing with the Gomes / Nava platoon even though it seemed to work out pretty well to me until the playoffs.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 2, 2013 16:56:07 GMT -5
@jayson Stark Scott Boras is rarely in a hurry but clubs are reporting Ellsbury talks are moving faster than expected. Winter-mettings deal not impossible
Reading between the lines, this sounds like the client is steering the bus if not driving it outright. Would benefit them to wait, at least from a max dollars perspective, but that this may get done soon rather than later sounds to me - pure speculation on my part - that Ells asked for a quicker resolution rather than letting the process "evolve" as Scott likes to say.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 2, 2013 17:12:16 GMT -5
@jayson Stark Scott Boras is rarely in a hurry but clubs are reporting Ellsbury talks are moving faster than expected. Winter-mettings deal not impossible Reading between the lines, this sounds like the client is steering the bus if not driving it outright. Would benefit them to wait, at least from a max dollars perspective, but that this may get done soon rather than later sounds to me - pure speculation on my part - that Ells asked for a quicker resolution rather than letting the process "evolve" as Scott likes to say. Speculating based on your speculation (read: probably just ignore this comment) but the only reason I could see Ellsbury pushing things along is if he wants to go to a specific team, and wants it done before they get tired of waiting and move on to other players, which would lead me to either Boston or Seattle (if the desire to play closer to home is a real thing for him), I can't see a reason for him wanting to go to a different specific team.
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Gwell55
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 2, 2013 17:14:12 GMT -5
@jayson Stark Scott Boras is rarely in a hurry but clubs are reporting Ellsbury talks are moving faster than expected. Winter-mettings deal not impossible Reading between the lines, this sounds like the client is steering the bus if not driving it outright. Would benefit them to wait, at least from a max dollars perspective, but that this may get done soon rather than later sounds to me - pure speculation on my part - that Ells asked for a quicker resolution rather than letting the process "evolve" as Scott likes to say. Doesn't this statement also coincide with what came out and soxfanatic quoted in the offseason sox thread. If that is true than Ellsbury may still be wanting to stick around and the 5/100M that was believed to be offered earlier by the sox may well be authentic. Hopefully it is an option for holding on to Jake.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 2, 2013 17:17:10 GMT -5
@jayson Stark Scott Boras is rarely in a hurry but clubs are reporting Ellsbury talks are moving faster than expected. Winter-mettings deal not impossible Reading between the lines, this sounds like the client is steering the bus if not driving it outright. Would benefit them to wait, at least from a max dollars perspective, but that this may get done soon rather than later sounds to me - pure speculation on my part - that Ells asked for a quicker resolution rather than letting the process "evolve" as Scott likes to say. Speculating based on your speculation (read: probably just ignore this comment) but the only reason I could see Ellsbury pushing things along is if he wants to go to a specific team, and wants it done before they get tired of waiting and move on to other players, which would lead me to either Boston or Seattle (if the desire to play closer to home is a real thing for him), I can't see a reason for him wanting to go to a different specific team. To that point there could be a "Take it by date X or we're moving on" offer on the table from a team he favors, as well - contenders mentioned previously include Bos, Det, Tex, SF, NYY, Sea, Cubs. Of these, the teams that have publicly admitted they spoken to Boras about him include Bos and NYY. Which is meaningless, I know.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 3, 2013 11:23:22 GMT -5
To that point there could be a "Take it by date X or we're moving on" offer on the table from a team he favors, as well - contenders mentioned previously include Bos, Det, Tex, SF, NYY, Sea, Cubs. Of these, the teams that have publicly admitted they spoken to Boras about him include Bos and NYY. Which is meaningless, I know. According to John Heyman, four teams in on Ellsbury are SF, SEA, MFY and BOS. HOU, DET and TEX are reportedly in on Choo but not Ellsbury. No word on CHC.
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