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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 3, 2013 21:12:52 GMT -5
FWIW the "forfeiture" section suggests the Yankees would forfeit a pick, at least if Im reading it right. Yes, a second round pick. They forfeited their first round pick when they signed McCann.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 3, 2013 21:13:09 GMT -5
Pick #18, not too shabby. Even if we got #18, which is not the case, what do the Braves get? As noted, the losing team no longer gets the signing team's pick. They get a comp pick. The Braves got a comp pick for McCann, and the Sox will get a comp pick for Ellsbury. The Yanks lose their first two picks, which was their first and probably a comp pick for Cano/Granderson/Kuroda signing elsewhere. If Cano signs with Seattle, their first pick is projected, but they lose their comp pick for Kendry Morales when he signs, and the pick the Yanks would get then evaporates. If all the other free agents sign with teams in the 11-28 range, our first pick (currently 29) will slide down to #18, and our comps, currently projected at 39-41 will move up the same 11 slots as teams ahead of us lose their comps.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2013 21:13:11 GMT -5
It will be a solid defensive outfield if it's LF Gardner, CF Ellsbury, RF Suzuki but not much power. They can plug and play Soriano and Wells who also can rotate in at DH. Although I bet the Yanks try to move Suzuki in a deal to free up a little cash and open up a hole for Soriano or Wells to play more regular and allow more freedom with the DH spot. Unless of course Cano leaves and they crazily think Soriano can play 2B again. The team has filled the C position, have 1B taken care of and would appear to no longer need another OF. So the only free agent targets that would make sense (besides Cano) would be starting pitching (Tanaka, Garza, Jimenez,Santana),a left side infielder (Drew, Infante) and a bullpen arm/closer. I am not certain the Yankees have many (or any) large free agent signings left this offseason.
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Gwell55
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 3, 2013 21:14:16 GMT -5
When the Angels let Mark Texeira go in 2008, they drafted Mike Trout with the compensation pick. Let's hope the Red Sox draft the next Mike Trout with the Yankee's 1st round pick next year... Even though it isn't how the pick now work ... we can now look forward to the sox signing Granderson for more headaches and losing their first round pick or Bradley will turn out to be a .240 .320 .350 hitter for too many years as mostly you can't steal magic in a bottle twice in a row very easily. Plus they lose the magic of all those steals with the leadoff hitter to worry the opposing pitchers. My guess is this outfield will match the 1997 team now.
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Post by bighead on Dec 3, 2013 21:16:43 GMT -5
Can the countless posters who cited every other reason why Ellsbury would sign somewhere other than money please take note? I realize a lot of it was wishful thinking and I have no problem with the guy cashing in which was his right but he's been destined for the highest bidder all along.
Unfortunately this is years of local sportswriters reminding us of this. Too bad for the Yanks he can't pitch...
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 3, 2013 21:19:32 GMT -5
Granderson? - the Nava-Gomes platoon seems to be working just fine. I can see a potential trade looming to get some power at 1B or in the OF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 3, 2013 21:20:10 GMT -5
I think this is a pretty reasonable deal for the Yankees. People keep comparing it to the Crawford deal and implying that it's worse but: a. The Crawford deal wasn't horrible (aside for him being a bad fit) until Crawford, who had no injury history, got hurt. b. The Crawford deal happened 3 years ago. Inflation, and the cost of a win, going up by 9% seems perfectly reasonable. c. The Yankees don't work on the '~6mil/win' FA criteria that everyone else is working on. If they get 1 win for every 7.6 mil they pay in Free Agency, they aren't crippling their team. And I'm willing to bet Ellsbury is worth about 20 WAR before that contract is over. Anyone disagree?
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Post by dawnbringr on Dec 3, 2013 21:29:21 GMT -5
"Ellsbury for 7 years and MORE than Crawford got. Thats madness. This will benefit the Red Sox for years to come."
EXACTLY what I'm thinking. I enjoyed watching Ellsbury in Boston, but his time on the DL (EXCESSIVE) and his aging will be a gift to the Sox in the years to come. I'm willing to bet this guy spends 30+ days on the DL next year,, and it will be all downhill from there. While it may not be "PC",, if Ellsbury gets a hangnail he won't play.
Thanks AGAIN,, yankmees.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2013 21:31:40 GMT -5
It will be a solid defensive outfield if it's LF Gardner, CF Ellsbury, RF Suzuki but not much power. They can plug and play Soriano and Wells who also can rotate in at DH. Although I bet the Yanks try to move Suzuki in a deal to free up a little cash and open up a hole for Soriano or Wells to play more regular and allow more freedom with the DH spot. Unless of course Cano leaves and they crazily think Soriano can play 2B again. The team has filled the C position, have 1B taken care of and would appear to no longer need another OF. So the only free agent targets that would make sense (besides Cano) would be starting pitching (Tanaka, Garza, Jimenez,Santana),a left side infielder (Drew, Infante) and a bullpen arm/closer. I am not certain the Yankees have many (or any) large free agent signings left this offseason. Jeff Passan @jeffpassan Source: Not only do the Yankees believe they've got room for Ellsbury and Cano or Choo, they still plan on signing at least one SP as well. Looks like they're going with the Dodgers "screw the CBT" strategy.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 21:32:33 GMT -5
Using amfox1's projection let's look at the age of the offense:
Ellsbury 30 Gardner 30 (FA) Cano 31 Soriano 38 (FA) McCann 30 Teixeira 34 Jeter 40 (FA) Suzuki 40 (FA) FA
Cervelli 28 Ryan 32 Nunez 27 Wells 35 (FA)
Thats an old team. Even with 5 free agents leaving there appear to be no prospects ready to help so that leads them back to free agency. Even though they technically get younger by removing a 35, 38, and two 40 year olds the replacements are likely to be 30+ also. The pitching isn't in much better shape talent wise although they do have a fair amount of 25 to 27 year old arms including Nova, Pineda and most of the pen. Makes Tanaka look like a must sign depending on the new NPB system.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2013 21:35:07 GMT -5
The Yankees presumably strongly suspect that Rodriguez's suspension will be upheld at least for most of 2014 (Rodriguez's camp did storm out of arbitration last week).
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 3, 2013 21:36:41 GMT -5
And I'm willing to bet Ellsbury is worth about 20 WAR before that contract is over. Anyone disagree? I do, he was worth around that in his 7 years here, it's not an incredibly safe bet to claim he'll post the same numbers in his decline years.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 3, 2013 21:37:00 GMT -5
I am not certain the Yankees have many (or any) large free agent signings left this offseason. Jeff Passan @jeffpassan Source: Not only do the Yankees believe they've got room for Ellsbury and Cano or Choo, they still plan on signing at least one SP as well. Looks like they're going with the Dodgers "screw the CBT" strategy. I'd hope so, their rotation is laughable right now. Even adding one of Tanaka or Kuroda leaves them extremely suspect.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 3, 2013 21:38:29 GMT -5
Red Sox sign Cano and move Pedroia to SS... wishful thinking? I think that would really shore up the offense and the Sox could move Pedroia back to 2B and Cano to 1B/DH once Ortiz retires though.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 3, 2013 21:39:43 GMT -5
Red Sox sign Cano and move Pedroia to SS... wishful thinking? I think that would really shore up the offense and the Sox could move Pedroia back to 2B and Cano to 1B/DH once Ortiz retires though. Not going to happen - I don't see Pedey ever moving off second at this point. If anything, you'd probably look to put Cano at 3B.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 3, 2013 21:45:53 GMT -5
I know as recently as 3 years ago Pedey was lobbying to move back to SS and was above average defensively there at ASU and in the minors. Just a thought considering his selflessness. I don't think it would be likely for Cano to come to Boston if he'd have to change positions (not that it's overly likely anyway). It would definitely fill a big corner IF offensive void though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2013 21:46:15 GMT -5
"Ellsbury for 7 years and MORE than Crawford got. Thats madness. This will benefit the Red Sox for years to come."EXACTLY what I'm thinking. I enjoyed watching Ellsbury in Boston, but his time on the DL (EXCESSIVE) and his aging will be a gift to the Sox in the years to come. I'm willing to bet this guy spends 30+ days on the DL next year,, and it will be all downhill from there. While it may not be "PC",, if Ellsbury gets a hangnail he won't play.Thanks AGAIN,, yankmees. I mean, he was playing with a fractured bone in his foot this year....
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2013 21:46:38 GMT -5
FWIW the "forfeiture" section suggests the Yankees would forfeit a pick, at least if Im reading it right. Yes, a second round pick. They forfeited their first round pick when they signed McCann. Actually, they forfeit their comp picks...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2013 21:46:50 GMT -5
This move will be great for the Yankees for I'd say about 4 or 5 years. I don't think Ellsbury is going to turn to Carl Crawford. His speed is still top-notch, doubt he'll need to move out of CF for quite awhile and he will hit some HRs with that short RF.
It strengthens the Yankees and weakens the Red Sox. You knew the Yanks would respond to the Sox winning the Series and to their own fielding a AAA team a lot of the season. They got the best catcher available, the best OF available, will retain Cano, and will eventually get the best starter available - Tanaka once everything gets ironed out.
That said, I think the Sox would have been nuts to have gone 7 years plus an option on Ellsbury. I'd have offered 5 years $110 million with an option, but that's as far as I would have gone and I know that wouldn't have sealed the deal, so I don't have regrets about the Sox losing Ellsbury as much as I hate who they lost him too and although in time I do believe Bradley will be a highly effective player, he won't quite have the skill set Ellsbury had.
Ellsbury, like Damon, wasn't Rickey Henderson at the plate, but he could work the count, get on base, and totally wreak havoc once he was there. I'll miss what he brought to the Sox, and I'll always think of him highly, but I hate the thought of him in pinstripes.
This feels like Johnny Damon again, but unlike Damon, Ellsbury has more years of effectiveness left and he won't need to immediately move out of CF the way Damon had to. The Yanks got a lot better today and in 2014 the Sox got worse losing Ellsbury in favor of Bradley.
Makes me thankful for 2013 and hopeful for the future with Bradley as part of it.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2013 21:48:29 GMT -5
I think this is a pretty reasonable deal for the Yankees. People keep comparing it to the Crawford deal and implying that it's worse but: a. The Crawford deal wasn't horrible (aside for him being a bad fit) until Crawford, who had no injury history, got hurt. b. The Crawford deal happened 3 years ago. Inflation, and the cost of a win, going up by 9% seems perfectly reasonable. c. The Yankees don't work on the '~6mil/win' FA criteria that everyone else is working on. If they get 1 win for every 7.6 mil they pay in Free Agency, they aren't crippling their team. And I'm willing to bet Ellsbury is worth about 20 WAR before that contract is over. Anyone disagree? Crawford is worth even less than when the Sox traded him at this point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2013 21:48:42 GMT -5
Red Sox sign Cano and move Pedroia to SS... wishful thinking? I think that would really shore up the offense and the Sox could move Pedroia back to 2B and Cano to 1B/DH once Ortiz retires though. There is zero chance of this happening. None whatsoever. The Sox have no desire to tie up $200 million in one player, particularly one on the wrong side of 30. On top of that you don't move a gold glove 2b at 30 years old to SS. Makes no sense. Not happening. Expect Pedroia at 2b and Bogaerts at SS.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 3, 2013 22:00:01 GMT -5
The next funny event will be when the Yanks sit out the first 100 picks in the best draft in 8 years, and then in 4 years when their fans wonder why their farm system doesn't produce players.
Meanwhile Sox will have 4 of top 36 or so.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2013 22:00:37 GMT -5
Congrats to Jacoby, he helped the red sox win a lot of games & 2 WS, Wish him the best health & performance possible as he's an exciting player. Thanks for the memories & the comp pick.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 3, 2013 22:01:24 GMT -5
Yes, a second round pick. They forfeited their first round pick when they signed McCann. Actually, they forfeit their comp picks... As of now, they don't have any compensation picks, but if/when they do, the first one will be forfeited instead of their second round pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2013 22:05:32 GMT -5
And I'm willing to bet Ellsbury is worth about 20 WAR before that contract is over. Anyone disagree? I do, he was worth around that in his 7 years here, it's not an incredibly safe bet to claim he'll post the same numbers in his decline years. According to ESPN he's been worth 20.2 WARS in his first 7 years, but has only had two years 2011 and 2013 that with a WAR above 2.7. He had .6, 2.7, 2.5, -.2, 8.0, .8 and 5.8. I'm sure he'll have some good years, but he's also going to have at least 2-3 years that are only going to be ok. I have no problems with the Sox letting him go, smart move.
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