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So where does Bogaerts fit?
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Post by ramireja on Nov 8, 2013 13:53:35 GMT -5
A bit off topic, but what do people think about batting Nava leadoff? You know....assuming Gomes isn't the starter on 90% of games.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 8, 2013 14:07:59 GMT -5
A bit off topic, but what do people think about batting Nava leadoff? You know....assuming Gomes isn't the starter on 90% of games. He's probably a better option than Victorino due to his superior OBP skills. His career splits indicate he's been his best, by far, batting 5th or 6th, but you're dealing with pretty small samples. Remember that you'd have to slide Victorino up to the top whenever there's a lefty pitching. It could indeed work as a nice stop-gap option, especially if Nava's able to throw up a .380 OBP. Ideally though, JBJ would be able to take command leading off by mid-season so that you'd utilize Nava's valuable presence in our thin 5-6 parts of the order.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 8, 2013 14:11:09 GMT -5
Part of the fear surrounding Bogaerts is paranoia but part of it is slightly legitimate, if Drew returns and Middlebrooks is around. Cherington wouldn't commit to Bogaerts making the team out of spring training - strategy? Motivation? Keeping up WMB value? Perhaps all of the above. I agree wholeheartedly it makes zero sense but I've seen stuff like this before play out where this board predicts one thing as being an absolute then when it doesn't happen explaining it away in hindsight.
Sox wanted Bogaerts to get full reps at short early in the year and give Middlebrooks the chance to play everyday rather than in a platoon is a commentary I could see happening even if I 100% disagree.
Not a prediction just a slight fear until Cherington or Farrel say otherwise or the situation plays out.
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Post by godot on Nov 8, 2013 14:28:47 GMT -5
Have not see X man play short that much, but a few people I trust say he has a lot work to do at short, and they wre working with him extensive at Pawtucket. He will be fine, but at this stage Drew is better. Although X-Man has an excellent approach and is very mature, he did look over matched at times, but he usually came back. Little doubt he will be a outstanding hitter, but there will be a learning curve. Suspect the ox would prefer to have Drew at short and have X Man back up and play perhaps extensively at third.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 8, 2013 16:29:42 GMT -5
Dwight Evans hit leadoff for years and he probably had less speed at the time than does Nava. for that matter? Rick Burleson hit leadoff for several years and had less than if Boston led off with Pedey.. Teams with little to no speed will sometimes stick OBP guys up top, such as a Nava.. base clogger or not, get him on and have someone at #2 who knows how to play small ball.
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Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2013 17:14:33 GMT -5
One problem with Nava as leadoff man is that he should only be there versus righties, and it's tough to have two completely different lineups depending on who's on the mound. Personally, I think it should go:
Victorino Nava/Gomes Pedroia Ortiz
...and then build from there. Xander will hit 5th-7th, depending on who else is on the roster.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 8, 2013 20:16:24 GMT -5
Not sold on Gomes getting on enough as compared to what the team may end up with at both C and 1b positions. Think the team may short term, or beging of the year be fine going with that front 4, then after JBJ gets his OBP up and shows the team he can get on base at around a .340-350 clip, move him into the #2 slot which would also give a natural R/L/R/L regardless of who is pitching, move Nava into the 6 slot, put Bogaerts into 5 and keep the R/L alive vs RH pitchers.
it would have to count on JBJ doing better next year and his ability to hit and run with Victorino, bunt some.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 8, 2013 23:20:21 GMT -5
The only positions in the lineup that are pinned down at this point are right field (at least in the sense that Victorino will be in the starting lineup somewhere, and likely there), second base, and DH. Why on earth are we speculating about the batting order?
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 9, 2013 16:42:06 GMT -5
Chris, that's a great point, and honestly not something I'd stopped and thought about, but technically true. Though with there being no chance of Ellsbury taking the qualifying offer, and I think the same chance of the Sox being his highest bidder, I would argue that Bradley Jr playing cf and starting near the bottom of the order is around 90% certain. Figure last September the team was in a "race" for the division, and a true battle for home field throughout the post season and Bradley Jr played 14 of the team's final 19 games, even with Nava, Carp, Gomes, Victorino and Berry all in the fold. If the Sox bring in another outfield option, I think it's for a bigger bat in left, keeping the idea of two center fielders (Bradley Jr and Victorino in cf and rf).
For the purposes of the thread, my guesses will be Bogaerts begins the season in the 6th spot of the order and moves up one spot to 5th, right around Memorial Day at the earliest and July 4th at the latest. Though I agree it's tough to talk batting order without knowing with certainty who the participants are.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 9, 2013 16:46:36 GMT -5
The only positions in the lineup that are pinned down at this point are right field (at least in the sense that Victorino will be in the starting lineup somewhere, and likely there), second base, and DH. Why on earth are we speculating about the batting order? Because after Bogaerts came up there were no shortage of posts saying he looked like one of the best hitters on the team already - this on a team that, offensively, spreadeagled the major leagues this past season. There is probably only one player that the Sox could reasonably acquire or reacquire that would unquestionably affect Bogaerts' place in the lineup, either from day one or eventually. And that player is Stanton. IF he were acquired I am presuming he would bat behind Ortiz in the lineup, and that spot would be eliminated from consideration for Bogaerts. Otherwise, Bogaerts hits where the organization feels it is best for him, regardless of whoever else is in the lineup. And that even includes Pedroia. I woudln't be at all surprised, if Bogaerts immediately or eventually actually becomes the best hitter in the Sox lineup in 2014, that he would move into the #3 spot in the lineup, with Pedroia moved to #2. Even the acquisition or non-acquisition of Ellsbury wouldn't make a difference for Bogaerts, because I don't expect to see him batting leadoff.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 11, 2013 8:50:32 GMT -5
Is anybody else worried that Victorino continues to struggle with injuries next season. He played a lot of ball this season on gimpy hammies.
Seems like a huge risk to bat him leadoff.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2013 9:54:15 GMT -5
Is anybody else worried that Victorino continues to struggle with injuries next season. He played a lot of ball this season on gimpy hammies. Seems like a huge risk to bat him leadoff. Why would batting him leadoff be any more of a risk than batting him anywhere else? I imagine your argument is "if he gets injured, you'd have to switch up the batting order!", but that's not much of a problem, is it?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2013 1:33:52 GMT -5
Folks were discussing possible batting orders in the main off-season thread, do I thought I'd bump the one semi-dedicated to it.
If they either re-sign Napoli or acquire an equivalent RHB, the batting order, I think, is pretty obvious:
Victorino (R) Pedroia (R) Ortiz (L) Napoli or substitute (R) Nava (L) Bogaerts (R) Pierzynski (L) Middlebrooks (R) Bradley (L)
Absolutely LHR-proof. You will note that after the first inning, this is last year's 1-6, with Bradley for Ellsbury and everyone moved up one. You want Bradley as the second lead-off guy; in an AL lineup, the 9 hole is more important than 8 and essentially as important as 7, so you put the impatient guy with pop 7, after the two high-OBP types, and the guy with poor-man leadoff skills 9th.
If Bradley really gets the OBP cranking, you may be better with him at leadoff, and Victorino slotted between Napoli and Nava (or with Bogaerts slotted there and Victorino in Bogaerts' slot, which is now 7th). That's not just because Bradley would then be much more of a leadoff type than Victorino in terms of OBP and SA. There's also a possibility that Napoli is better when there's a power bat behind him, forcing them to pitch to him a bit more.
Now ...
If they replace Napoli with Carp or another LHB, it's a headache. With five LHB in the lineup, you can't really afford to have two RHB back-to-back, because you then either have three LHB in a row, or a pair of LHB back-to-back, and suddenly you've gone from a lineup that negates opponent's LHR to one that's their dinner and dessert.
In contrast, if you spread your RHB around, you can then try to have the unavoidable sole B2B pair of LHB be Nava plus someone else. If they bring in a LHR to pitch to the pair late in the game, you can hit then Gomes for Nava, so you're still marginalizing the value of opponent LHRs.
But the best I can come up with doesn't do that with Nava, at least to start the season, and instead puts him in a role he may well be unsuited for:
Nava Pedroia Ortiz Victorino Carp (or Ethier, etc.) Bogaerts Bradley (swaps with Nava if and when he establishes high OBP) Pierzynski Middlebrooks
And against LHP, you'd probably have Bogaerts leading off and Gomes 6th (or, ultimately, Victorino leadoff and Bogaerts 4th).
Like many others I don't buy a scenario where they sign Choo and relegate Nava to the bench. The only rationale for replacing Nava with Choo would be to free up Nava to be a key piece in the hypothetical trade for the elusive corner OF who would be a better RH cleanup hitter than Napoli: Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, or Bigfoot (there's no evidence that any alien from Area 51 could make a successful adaptation to the AL East).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 5, 2013 4:17:43 GMT -5
The only positions in the lineup that are pinned down at this point are right field (at least in the sense that Victorino will be in the starting lineup somewhere, and likely there), second base, and DH. Why on earth are we speculating about the batting order? I know this is a long shot and I know the non tender, nonetheless, I'm rooting for Kalish. He's healthy, said to be ready for spring, likely to sign a minor league contract with the Sox and he's a better all around right fielder and leadoff hitter than Victorino . Here's to long shots.....
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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 11:44:33 GMT -5
The only positions in the lineup that are pinned down at this point are right field (at least in the sense that Victorino will be in the starting lineup somewhere, and likely there), second base, and DH. Why on earth are we speculating about the batting order? I know this is a long shot and I know the non tender, nonetheless, I'm rooting for Kalish. He's healthy, said to be ready for spring, likely to sign a minor league contract with the Sox and he's a better all around right fielder and leadoff hitter than Victorino . Here's to long shots..... Here, here. Homegrown "comeback" long shots. my personal favorite kind.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 5, 2013 12:56:35 GMT -5
to return to the title of the thread... Bogaerts belongs at SS batting 5th, protecting Papi until Papi retires as Grand papi when he moves up a spot... and no one needs to think about the Sox SS until 2026 or so...
Amen
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 13:10:46 GMT -5
For what it's worth, here's Farrell: Looks like Xander will at least start the season in the bottom third of the order, but with the potential to move up by year's end.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2013 13:15:27 GMT -5
For what it's worth, here's Farrell: Looks like Xander will at least start the season in the bottom third of the order, but with the potential to move up by year's end. Farrell talking reasonably off the top of his head, and not realizing that if both Bogaerts and Bradley are in the bottom third, then either Pierzynski or Middlebrooks has to hit 6th. So by "bottom third" you maybe want to think 6 through 9. No way that AJP ever sees the six hole. I could see them starting out with WMB 6th and Bogaerts 8th. Over / under date for swapping them: April 11.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 5, 2013 13:20:09 GMT -5
Sounds like he's just trying to temper expectations.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 5, 2013 13:22:48 GMT -5
I don't think this will last long, or even is a good idea.
I don't see the order position thing as pressure, but I do think some players see it as role defining.
Xander is a different player than JBJ...I truly think he identifies himself as a hitter, while JBJ is a fielder first.
Xander's movement into the middle of the order I expect to be quick. His ability to hit at an elite level while playing SS adequately will be the major factor in the next decade of success for the sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2013 13:36:09 GMT -5
Farrell has an annoying loyalty to certain players. Guess I can't argue with it. But how hard was it to sit Drew in the middle of a 1-63 slump against a LH starter when Iglesias was hitting .430 on the bench?
I have this dumb feeling that JBJ and Xander will have to earn their playing time and better spots in the lineup no matter who the other options are. We'll see Gomes batting 4th and Xander batting 8th at some point, I'd be willing to bet.
You can kind of see this coming when Farrell makes his little comments about being fine with JBJ in center if they can add some power at the corner. Hey John, we're not going to upgrade Victorino and probably not going to get rid of Gomes, Nava and Carp so we can have Beltran or Granderson in LF.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2013 9:45:20 GMT -5
I moved the Kalish/Victorino discussion to its own thread.
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Post by semperfisox on Dec 6, 2013 12:41:25 GMT -5
Bogaerts bat fits anywhere. I think he'll eventually stick at 3B.
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